Investment Wisdom Of The Day Google
Why Permabears Are Idiots
Even though I am not a permabear, as I participate on the long side just about as much as I do on the short side (when the time is right), bear hate e-mails has been hitting my mailbox in a fairly steady fashion over the last few weeks.
Why? I have no idea, but I am starting to think that the bulls are getting fairly sick and tired of today’s trading range. As you know, most stocks are slightly down from a year ago, as represented by the NYSE, the largest index by capitalization.
For intance, this rant….. Morgan Stanley’s stock-market guru throws shade at the greatest stock-market call of all time
“We all know lots of people who have called 17 of the last zero corrections,” Parker wrote in a note to clients on Monday. Firstly, we aren’t inclined to give them credit when they are finally right.”
“We are nice people, but most of us would have been banished from the money management industry by 2000 if we were bearish the whole way up on [technology, media, and telecom] valuations,” the note said. “Timing matters, and we will continue to monitor the economic, corporate, and credit laundry list to attempt to call the top.”
In the end, Parker said he didn’t see a major market correction coming anytime soon and he was loath to call a top where he didn’t see one forming.
So, let me get this straight. Even if I am right and the stock market drops 30-50% here, I am still an idiot who just got lucky. That’s fine with me, but there quite a few people who would disagree with you at the present time Mr. Parker. Soros, Rogers, Icahn, Faber and the list goes on.
This is important from a psychological perspective because the bulls are getting desperate and angry. They are coming up with unreasonable and dangerous assumptions that the top is nowhere near. Even if it’s already behind us. They are getting ready to hold position until it is TOO LATE to sell. This sort of behavior is typical at market tops. Just be aware of it.
Oh, and one last thing for Mr. Parker. You do realize that the inflation adjusted Dow/S&P are sitting at a break even point from their respective 2000 tops, while the Nasdaq is still down 15%….right? That stands for no real gains over the last 15 years and we are now on a verge of the next bear leg. This kind of blows are giant hole in your “Bears are Idiots” thesis, doesn’t it.
What Wall Of Worry Is Everyone Talking About?
7/23/2015 – Another negative day with the Dow Jones down 119 points (-0.69%) and the Nasdaq down 25 points (-0.49%).
To be hones, I have no idea. Everyone I know, money manager or individual investors, are extremely bullish. And despite numerous bearish divergences or sentiment indicators, the market is sitting a stone throws away from all time highs. Did you see the rally off of July 8th bottom? The Nasdaq just put in a new top. Still, some people don’t get it.
Big-name investors stand atop a welcome ‘wall of worry’
Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates, is on the front page of the markets’ newspaper of record turning negative on Chinese stocks, saying there is “no safe place” for clients’ money there. This alarmed – and alarming – message comes mere days after the brilliant billionaire investor Carl Icahn told us all that junk-bond ETFs were a disaster-in-waiting – tinderbox theaters just waiting to ignite and trap their customers.
Earth to bulls, there is no wall of worry. I hope the author realizes that he is talking about Mr. Icahn and Mr. Dalio, not some Joe off the street. This is utter nonsense.
You really want to know why the “smart money” is starting to ring the warning bell?
Wall of worry or not, they clearly understand that the drivers that took this market to bubble level valuations are going away.
For instance, The stock market is disappearing
And as we noted on Tuesday, net flows into US stocks have been relatively flat since 2006, while net issuance, or the amount of new stocks being introduced onto the market, has plummeted. This math, then, indicates that the most recent bull market has been all about reduced share counts.
QE gone. Stock buybacks are slowing down and going away. The Fed is about to increase interest rates. Credit expansion cycle is over and CAPEX is dead in the water. Corporate earnings are slowing down, Apple watches are not selling and “unofficial” economic data points to a severe recession.
Call me stupid, but I don’t see what will drive the stock market up this proposed “wall of worry”. Wall of Jericho might be a better definition here.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 23rd, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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What Does Today’s Stock Market & 50 Cent Have In Common?
……their financial well-being is based on illusion.
If you haven’t heard, rapper 50 Cent recently filled for bankruptcy. That is a few months after Forbes has estimated his net worth at around $155 Million. 50 Cent: I borrowed my bling and I’m not rich
Questioned by an attorney for the woman, Lastonia Leviston, the musician-actor denied owning many luxury items including expensive cars and flashy jewellery saying he rents, borrows and leases instead. “It’s a borrowed piece of jewellery from the jeweller,” he told Leviston’s lawyer,
I am not sure who said it, but it’s true…..”You never really know how rich someone is until they file for bankruptcy”.
Anyway, just like 50 Cent’s prosperity was an illusion, so is today’s stock market valuations. Driven by market interventions, QE, zero interest rates, stock buybacks and speculative spirits. Once the tide goes out, and it most certainly will, that simple observation will be in the open for everyone to see. Again.
What Does Today’s Stock Market & 50 Cent Have In Common? Google
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Why Carl Icahn Believes The Market Is About To Crash
Soros Fund has a large short position. Just a few weeks ago, Jim Rogers said the following Jim Rogers: Major Correction Ahead…Central Banks To Panic. Now, Carl Icahn is warning people that we are once again at 2000 and 2007 tops.
“What is better…..making 1-2% or losing 30% as people did in 2008? Right now is extremely dangerous.”
Forget about my line of thinking here for a second. Who else do you need to tell you that we are in a massive bubble and that a big correction is coming. Warren Buffett? Actually, WSJ ‘Buffett Indicator’ Flashes Warning for Stocks
Anyway, if you are sick and tired of your typical Wall Street analysis…… “We are in the early stages of a secular bull market and right now is a buying opportunity of a lifetime”, do yourself a favor and watch the video below.
Why You Should Not Laugh At Marc Faber
7/22/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 69 points (-0.39%) and the Nasdaq down 36 points (-0.70%)
Instead of repeating myself here for the 100th time, I will let Marc Faber tell you exactly the same thing. I agree 100% in terms of deflation, stock market, asset prices, expectations, Asia, Greek Ponzi finance, etc…. It is definitely worth 5 minutes of your time.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 22nd, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Facebook (FB) – The Best Short Out There?
If it is not the best, it should definately be on your radar screen. While most investors today will laugh at me when I suggest that Facebook (FB) will see $20 a share over the next 3 years, I will laugh back when it does. I promise. Here is why……
- As discussed over the last few days, Facebook is massively overpriced. At its $275 Billion market cap, the company is now worth more than GE. At 10th the revenue base and a P/E of 95. I guarantee you, investors in Facebook today will look back in 2-3 years and wonder “What the hell were we thinking”.
- I am beginning to notice quite a bit of fraudulent activity on Facebook when it comes to likes, promotions, paid advertising, etc… That is firsthand knowledge, but you can Google the same and do your own research. That suggests the Facebook is running out of growth and its multiple is not justified. By a long shot.
- See those massive gaps all the way down to $20 a share? Yep, they will have to be closed at some point.
- We are on a verge of a multi-year substantial bear market. Click Here. When such bear markets develop, if past is any history, such overvalued and over hyped stocks tend to lose 80-90% of their value. Just as the gaps above suggest. I don’t know why this time would be any different.
- Short interest is low.
Finally, even at $20 a share, Facebook will be extremely overpriced. In other words, I just gave you a 80% gainer, but its up to you what you do with it. As always, TIMING is the key here.
New Attraction Coming Soon To A Bull Market Near You – Investment Grin Of The Day
Famous Last Words
Famous last words when it comes to investing. It’s too cheap, too expensive, no way it can go any lower, it’s impossible for this stock to go any higher, it will bounce, it’s too late to sell, I will wait to exit until we are back at break even , etc…..
Speaking of, Cramer delivers again Apple too cheap to sell
Apple might not be expensive when compared to Facebook, but it doesn’t mean that the stock itself cannot decline 30-50% from today’s levels. It has done so on numerous occasions before. And it might do the same here or after investors realize that Apple’s innovative drive has died with Steve Jobs. Apple watch is a failure as I have indicated here so many times before. This same view is now starting to show up in the company’s financial statements.
Point being, investors should take emotion out of the equation and have firm stop loss points in place. And if Apple triggers them, get out. Plus, this is yet another reason as to why you shouldn’t be following mainstream financial media.