Investment Grin Of The Day Google
Why Iran’s Deal Is Irrelevant
Let me begin by saying that Iranians are some of the nicest people I know. I have quite a few friends and that observation definitely fits the mold. With that in mind, I do not get America’s obsession with Iran. Nuclear weapons or not.
If shove comes to push and Iran is stupid enough to attack Israel, the latter or the US have the capability to wipe Iran out in a matter of minutes. In other words, how should I put it, Iran is a sideshow that doesn’t matter.
The real circus is amassing on Russia’s eastern border. On both sides (NATO vs Russia). Here is the latest Russian Air Force Receives New Su-34 Bombers, Su-35S Fighters As Military Expansion Continues
If I was Obama I wouldn’t worry about a small country that may or may not (one day in the future) get a nuclear bomb. I would worry about a country that already has 8000 active nuclear warheads/ICBMs (the US has 7300). You know, the country that NATO is currently and actively trying to pick a fight with.
Carl Icahn’s Epic Market Prediction
7/16/2015- An up day with the Dow Jones up 70 points (+0.39%) and the Nasdaq up 64 points (+1.24%).
If you participate in financial markets the video below is a must watch.
Carl Icahn and Larry Fink, BlackRock Chairman and CEO discuss the state of today’s financial market. As a quick summary…..
Carl Icahn: High-yield market is about to blow up (he indicated previously that he has a large short position there or building one). Just as it did in 2007-2009. This will have a net negative impact on the stock market. Just as it did in 2008.
Larry Fink: No way in hell, we don’t have the leverage we had in 2007.
My Comments: I believe Carl Icahn is on the right side of the trade here. The massive amount of leverage Larry Fink dismisses is still there. Its just that a large chunk of it got shifted onto the FED’s balance sheet and the stock market.
Here is what I believe the trigger point will be: As soon as investors lose “net faith” in the FED you will see this whole thing fall apart. Fast. As far as I am concerned they have already lost the window of opportunity to raise interest rates. They will now be stuck in the worst case scenario…..zero interest rates, no way to stimulate as another round of QE can backfire and collapsing capital markets. As soon as investors come to this realization, the jig will be up. And that should happen much sooner than most people anticipate.
Anyway, watch this video. It is definitely worth 50 minutes of your time.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 15th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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It’s Hard To Be A Bear When Everyone Is Bullish – Final Part
Explanation: Being a bear while everyone else is bullish is one of the most challenging propositions in investing. For instance, ‘Short selling is an incredibly lonely proposition,’ billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman says. Yet, it can pay off big time if you get your TIMING right. However, since most people, even professional investors are terrified of shorting, I will introduce a quick series about short selling, proper risk management when short selling and the best way to maximize returns. This was to be a part of my never finished book (no time to finish it)…….
Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover Investment Strategy Summary
Know Exactly Where You Are At All Times.
Whether you are investing in individual stocks or the overall stock market, you must have a clear understanding of exactly where you are in the cyclical composition of the underlying financial instrument. Luckily, you only have a few options
- Market Bottom:
Cover your short positions and prepare to go long. Identify substantially undervalued securities.
- Bull Market:
Buy and hold substantially undervalued securities. Continue to add to your positions and/or buy newly discovered undervalued securities throughout the duration of a bull market.
- Market Top:
Liquidate all of your long positions and prepare to go short. Identify good shorting opportunities. They can either be stocks you were long or stocks that are expected to decline at X multiple to the market.
- Bear Market:
Take short positions in the overall stock market or individual stocks once a bear move is confirmed. Continue to add to your short positions for the duration of the move. Cover once the bottom is reached.
Then simply rinse and repeat. The rules above, of course, can be applied to all time frames and to all financial instruments. For as long as you know exactly where in the cycle you are. The primary benefits are as follows.
Risk Reduction:
- Through the purchase of undervalued securities.
- Through knowing where in the cycle you are.
- Though having the ability to be on both sides of the trade at appropriate times.
Maximizing Profits:
- Through having the ability to profit from both sides of the move. Long and short.
- Through purchasing undervalued securities with significant upside potential or shorting overvalued securities with a lot downside.
- Through compressing anticipated gains into the shortest time frame possible.
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
What Amazon Prime Tells Us About The US Economy
I am in the market for a new laptop. Nothing urgent, but I have been looking and studying various models, prices, etc….. So, imagine my disappointment when a highly hyped Amazon Prime Day rolled around and I wasn’t able to find anything.
For what I wanted, prices barely changed and after browsing for half an hour I couldn’t find anything worthwhile. It was the same situation at the matching Walmart sale. In fact, I could have probably found better deals at a local Staples or Best Buy store. And while my story is anecdotal at best, apparently other people had a similar experience. Amazon Prime Day is on and customers are bummed out by the virtual ‘garage sale’
As an investor, this leads me to two quick observations.
- If even Amazon and Walmart were unable to squeeze “Deals” out on their highly hyped sales, corporate margin expansion or corporate earnings must be at their peak right now.
- Based on what I have read thus far, it appears people were not in a shopping mood. This seems to coincide with Bank of America’s Consumer Spending Survey which has been showing signs of a rather rapid deterioration since the beginning of this year.
Although there is no data set available yet to prove all of the above, if true, we should see earnings compression appear on corporate income statements over the next few quarters. And that’s not good when Shiller’s S&P P/E ratio is at 27.
Chinese Idiocracy & Greek Revolution
7/15/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 3 points (-0.02%) and the Nasdaq down 6 points (-0.12%)
Imagine a heroin addict who is knocking on death’s door after an overdose. The attending physician only has the following two options. Flash the system, then hope/pray the patient makes it. Or give the patient an adrenaline/morphine short so he/she has few more minutes to say goodbye.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what the EU, China and Greece did over the last two weeks.
But not everyone thinks that way. Jamie Dimon on Greece and China: Crisis? What crisis?
“You have to separate the financial markets from the economy,” he said. “You can’t expect any economy to have perpetual growth at 10%. Dimon described the recent choppiness as “bumps in the road” and that he thinks Chinese banks and regulators will be able to handle things even if loan quality in China is a bit worse than expected.
Here is the problem with the presumption above. Who gave the “All Clear” signal? Just because China had a fairly substantial bounce after a massive sell-off, something I have talked about here, doesn’t mean the worst is behind us. One look at any of the Chinese indices and you realize that China left a number of massive down gaps behind. Gaps that the market will have to close.
That is to say, at the very least the Chinese market is set to re-test recent lows (when the bounce is over).
And I don’t care what kind of GDP growth China is reporting (today’s number showed a 7% GDP growth). I’ll put it this way. When even the CNN questions China’s accounting practices, Is China cooking its books?, you know the end is near.
But it’s not only China. It’s everyone. Maybe in a more subtle way, but it is there. Today’s US Financial system is a one giant Ponzi Scheme that makes Bernie Madoff look like a boy scout. If you don’t think our financial markets are highly distorted at Shiller’s P/E of 27 though intervention, QE and stock buybacks, I am afraid you might be in for a rude awakening.
In terms of Greece, there is absolutely no way way in hell Greece can avoid default. Bailout or not and now or later. It is mathematically impossible. For Greece’s sake, the people of Greece need to overthrow their spineless Government, immediately default and then follow Iceland’s 2008 bankruptcy model. That is the only chance they have.
As I am writing this, Greek protesters are starting their clashes with police. I sincerely hope that they won’t stop until Greek default becomes a reality. I remind you, something that the entire country voted for. If they fail, they are to suffer the consequences of economic tyranny/slavery for many years to come.
So, is it possible that our adrenaline/morphine shot is wearing off. I will let you decide.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 15th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
It’s Hard To Be A Bear When Everyone Is Bullish. Part 9
Explanation: Being a bear while everyone else is bullish is one of the most challenging propositions in investing. For instance, ‘Short selling is an incredibly lonely proposition,’ billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman says. Yet, it can pay off big time if you get your TIMING right. However, since most people, even professional investors are terrified of shorting, I will introduce a quick series about short selling, proper risk management when short selling and the best way to maximize returns. This was to be a part of my never finished book (no time to finish it)…….
For the purposes of this book, we can apply the following tools or shortcuts.
Know What Time Frames You Are Working With and/or Trading:
If you are day trader, chances are, you are trading based on weekly, daily, hourly and minute charts. If you are more interested in catching larger moves, as I am, it is highly probable that you are trading based on both the long-term and short-term charts. Whatever your situation might be, the first step is to define, without a shadow of a doubt, what it is that you are trading.
In other words, if you are day trading based on your daily charts, stick to that. If you are trading based on weekly or monthly moves, continue on with that approach. Do not move between various time frames until and unless the move is permanent. Why? It is highly probable that constant shifting between different time frames will lead to multiple errors and substantial losses.
Identify The Cyclical Composition Within Your Time Frame:
Attempt to identify exactly where you are in the above mentioned cycle. Bottom, bull, top or bear. Typically, the longer the time frame you are working with the easier it is to identify exactly what part of the cycle is working in the market at the time. If you are working with short term cycles, simply understand that multiple short-term cycles will complete themselves within the confines of longer cycles. For example, one long-term completed cycle on the Dow would be a bull/bear market of 2002-2009. Yet, it was within the confines is this larger cycle that multiple short-term bull/bear moves developed at the same time. In fact, a day trader might see as many as 4-5 small daily cycles develop on a daily chart.
Identify Where In The Cycle You Are (bull or bear).
Based on the time frames you working with, determine exactly where in the cycle you are. For instance, if you are working with weekly and monthly charts, identify if the weekly/monthly cycle is in a bull or bear market and/or distributing/consolidating.
Apply Other Time Frames For Confirmation:
Consider other time frames before deciding where in the cycle you are. For instance, if you are trading based on daily charts it would be helpful to consider what weekly and monthly charts are indicating. While the market might be in a 5 day bull run or a bounce, weekly and monthly charts might suggest you are in the midst of a bear market.
Doing all of the above should give a you fairly good indication of where in the cycle you are coming in. Allowing you to take an appropriate trading position in the process.
For example, today’s (September 16th, 2014) market environment presents us with a perfect analysis opportunity for the Dow Jones. Here is a sample analysis to show you how to determine exactly where in the cycle we are and what positions or entry points are optimal.
To be continued……
It’s Hard To Be A Bear When Everyone Is Bullish. Part 9 Google
Investment Grin Of The Day
Just How Much Student Debt Is Out There
The amount of student debt out there is truly staggering. Another problem is…..it is going parabolic. Up about $300 Billion in a little over a year. I guess the only positive out of all of this is that Wall Street is not yet creating CDOs out of student debt and then selling it to Greece. Although, some people already use student loans as their home equity ATM’s.
Here are some things I wrote about the subject matter before. They are just as relevant today……
Obama’s New Student Debt Law Perpetuates The State Of Welfare
Why You Should Default On Your Student Debt….Today!!!
Private Debt Crisis. Roadmap To Next Economic Collapse?
America’s Experiment In Debt Slavery Continues Unabated
Warning: Student Loans Replace Home Equity ATM’s
How any of this ends well is beyond me.