Investment Grin Of The Day Google
Julian Robertson: The Repeat Of 2008 Sell-Off Is Now Highly Probable
Here is a question for you. Who would you rather listen to…..some Charles Schwab yahoo financial adviser who keeps screaming that today’s market is a “buying opportunity of a lifetime” or hedge fund legend Julian Robertson (founder of Tiger Management). I will leave that decision up to you. But if you are wondering, here is what Mr. Robertson thinks.
- Twin bubbles: In bonds and equities.
- The FED is frightened to death.
- It is possible the market will boil over into an explosion. The bigger this bubble gets the bigger the burst will be. The repeat of 2008 sell-off is now a real possibility.
- The FED will raise interest rates….be ready.
- The stock market is in a bubble that will surely pop.
I’ll tell you one thing. It’s nice to be on the same analytical side as Julian.
Julian Robertson: The Repeat Of 2008 Sell-Off Is Now Highly Probable Google
What You Should Expect From The FED Tomorrow
4/28/2015- A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 72 points (+0.40%) and the Nasdaq down 5 points (-0.10%).
So, does it matter what the FED says tomorrow? Not really and not if you value your money. Here is why.
As far as I am concerned there is only one thing, and one thing only, that is holding this market together. The FED and investors blind faith in the fact that the FED will be able to stop any and all market corrections. Either through QE, interest rates or by simply making statements to the press. So much so that every single bottom over the last couple of months can be attributed to the FED talk. El-Erian tends to agree. Danger, Danger — ‘Market Is in Love With Central Bank Trade’
Here are the 3 reasons as to why this “herd mentality trade” will blow up in investors faces. And much sooner than most people believe.
- The Fed is a Reactionary Force: If we study the past, the FED has always been late to react to any and all market developments. For instance, Bernanke was talking about the accelerating US Economy as late as Q1 of 2008. They have no clue and there is no reason to believe that this time will be any different.
- The Market Will Decline Anyway: My mathematical and timing work makes it very clear. Over the short-term the market is independent of all fundamental inputs. That is to say, the market will top out on a certain date in 2015 and initiate its decline. No matter what the FED does or say. That day is approaching fast.
- Investors Will Lose Confidence In The FED: This is unavoidable. As soon as the FED is unable to backstop the next decline, most investors will lose confidence in a millisecond. That in itself will accelerate the decline
The main take away from the points above is as follows. The FED trade will be in place until it is not. The problems is, by the time most investors realize this fact, it will already be too late. By the time the analysis above becomes a reality, the stock market will already be down 10-25%.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 28th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Shocking: Why Even Investment Legends Make Mistakes At Market Tops
This is rather a sobering look at how most investors think and behave at market tops. Forget about your mom and pop retail investors, we are talking about the top 0.5% of professionals out there.
Last month, Stan Druckenmiller recounted his own experience with capitulation and performance chasing when he was the lead portfolio manager for George Soros and the Quantum Fund:
“I’ll never forget it. January of 2000 I go into Soros’ office and I say I’m selling all the tech stocks, selling everything. This is crazy… Just kind of as I explained earlier, we’re going to step aside, wait for the next fat pitch. I didn’t fire the two gun slingers. They didn’t have enough money to really hurt the fund, but they started making 3 percent a day, and I’m out. It’s driving me nuts. I mean, their little account is like up 50% on the year. I think Quantum was up seven. It’s just sitting there.
“So like around March I could feel it coming. I just – I had to play. I couldn’t help myself. And three times during the same week I pick up a – don’t do it. Don’t do it. Anyway, I pick up the phone finally. I think I missed the top by an hour. I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost $3 billion in that one play. You ask me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself. So maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that.”
And while most investors believe it is impossible to predict the market top, I tend to disagree. When the TIME is right, I intend to nail it to the day and within 100 point accuracy.
Shocking: Why Even Investment Legends Make Mistakes At Market Tops Google
Investment Grin Of The Day
Is Warren Buffett Shorting Everything?
The chart above is as clear as night and day. Based on the adjusted P/E ratio, the stock market is more expensive today than it was at 1907, 1937, 1966 and 1987 tops. Just as expensive as it was at 1929 and 2007 tops. Only 2000 top stands above (due to the tech bubble and no earnings – it can be discounted away).
Now that I think about it, I am a little confused. I haven’t heard from a single value investor, or so called value investors, that the stock market is overvalued. David Stockman tends to agree.
David Stockman: ‘There Are No Markets, Just a Raging Casino’
“There are no markets left in any meaningful sense of the word, just a raging casino infected with the madness of the crowds and the central bank pied pipers who mesmerize them,” he writes on his blog.
Well said and I couldn’t agree more. Benjamin Graham must me spinning in his grave right about now. The only remaining question is, what is Warren Buffett and his disciples are up to? If they are to follow traditional Graham & Dodd valuation metrics, they should be completely out of the market by now. If not 100% short.
And while Warren Buffett’s corporate structure makes that impossible, the rest of the so called value investors should start asking this very same question.
Is Today’s Excessive Bullishness Warranted?
4/27/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 41 points (-0.23%) and the Nasdaq down 32 points (-0.63%)
I would hate to poop on everyone’s parade, BUT the Dow is still sitting well bellow its March 2nd top, IBB is collapsing and I can still argue that we have been in a period of distribution or consolidation since July of 2014.
So, why is that I get the same feeling I had at 2007 top? For instance, Stocks can handle whatever the Fed throws at them
Wow, apparently everything is coming up roses and this market is getting ready to surge higher. That’s one way to look at things. And the other? How a $17 Trillion Bull Market Falls Short Relative to Past
“I look at U.S. stocks as very fully priced,” said Robert Arnott, the chairman of Research Affiliates in Newport Beach, California, and a pioneer in the field of fundamental indexing. About $170 billion is managed using his firm’s investment strategies. “Do I view them immediately vulnerable and dangerous? No. I view them dangerous for long-term investors.”
Now we are getting somewhere. I only have one problem with the statement/article above. “Not immediately vulnerable and dangerous….only for long-term investors?”. Based on my work the stock market can correct in one of two ways. A prolonged decline, similar to what we have experienced on the Dow between 2002 and 2003. Or, a quick drop followed by a prolonged period of consolidation. For instance, 1937.
That is to say, today’s stock market environment, given all of the things I talk about on this blog, is about as dangerous as you can imagine. So much so that investors might see a rapid 20-30% correction in a matter of months. And in an environment where most investors truly believe that such an adjustment is impossible, well, that could be a devastating move for quite a few people.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 27th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Two Charts That Will Send Chills Down Your Spine
While major stock market indices continue on with their slow “melt up” on low volume, the two charts below should send chills down your spine.
And not only that. The S&P 500 has a serious revenue problem While quite a few corporates were able to push their accounting to the limit to beat the bottom line this quarter, they might not be able to do it next time around.
Doesn’t matter!!!
Perhaps, but lets review. Low volume melt up, macro data is collapsing and getting worse, earnings are expected to decline, fund outflows, anticipated interest rate increases, buybacks, accounting gimmicks, etc…. And I am expected to believe the stock market is about to surge higher…..Just as I was expected to believe that Pets.com was the next Microsoft?
It will be fun watching the stock market catch up to the down slopping lines below.
Insane Video Of Everest Avalanche
I love Nepal and hiking around that region. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the people whose lives were devastated by the recent earthquake. If you can, donate. The stunning video below shows the furry mother nature can unleash in a matter of seconds.
Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – Weekly Podcast
April 25th, 2015: We have a great show for you this week. Hedge fund managers Matthew Demeter and Alex Dvorkin discuss the following topics….
- What the stock market is doing and what we expect to happen over the next few weeks.
- COT Report and what the big guys are buying. Listen to make sure you are not on the wrong side of the trade.
- Deflation, employment numbers, gold, geopolitical and macroeconomic issues.
- A multitude of great investment ideas and various tops/bottoms that can make you a ton of money.
- And of course, much…..much more.
Don’t miss this one and join us again next Saturday.
Listen to the podcast by clicking on the player above. If you prefer iTunes, please Click Here