Sorry Ladies, But I Had To….- Investment Grin Of The Day Google
Baltic Dry Index Predicts A Global Economic Slowdown
I am scratching my head here (not really). According to most people in the mainstream, political and financial media the US Economy is on fire. At the same time, despite the appearance of this debt driven economic miracle happening in front of our eyes, at least the Baltic Dry Index (the index of global shipping costs) is not buying it.
The index is down 75% in a little over a year and is now hitting levels unseen since 1986. In other words, if this does not suggest a massive global slow down while piercing the bubble of “perceived” economic prosperity, I don’t know what will.
Need more evidence? Fine, how about this. In their biggest drop since May of 2009, Chinese imports have collapsed 19.9% year-over-year in January, missing expectations of a modest 3.2% increase. Their worst miss since the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. So, if the US Economy is so great, why is global trade collapsing? I don’t think it takes a genius to figure it out.
How I Missed The Exact March 2nd Top By 0.1%
3/10/2015 – A big down day with the Dow Jones down 333 points (-1.85%) and the Nasdaq down 83 points (-1.67%).
Going into the end of February my subscribers knew that we were facing a major turning point at the Dow 18,320 (+/- 50 points) and that it would occur on February 27th (+/- 1 trading day). If you are wondering, yes, +/- 1 trading day included March 2nd.
My advice was also rather simple, to go short right at the top. The actual top arrived on March 2nd at the Dow 18,285. In the final analysis I have missed it by 15-35 Dow points or 0.1%. Close enough. If you would like to find out what happens next, if this sell-off is over or just getting started, please Click Here.
In the meantime and as I write this, the talking heads on CNBC are trying to figure out what has caused this decline. Was it Greece…the dollar…..was it the good jobs report and anticipated rate increases?
Who cares!!!
While it is important to understand fundamental and technical metrics behind market moves, such indicators do a piss poor job in predicting what the market will do next. As is the case today.
The stock market moves according it its own mathematical points of force. As it moves in multi-dimensional space with the DNA type of sequencing guiding the entire process. In other words, the stock market is a natural and alive system that moves according to its own growth pattern. As a human body would from the moment of fertilization to the moment of death. If you would be interested in learning more you can start here Timed Value.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 10th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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I Would Hate To Agree With Paul Krugman, But……
Economic charlatans like Paul Krugman is the reason the US Economy finds itself on the brink of disaster. No, Mr. Krugman, you can’t print your way to prosperity and I don’t care how many Nobel Prizes you have. You can create an impression of wealth through creation of debt and liquidity, but that always and inadvertently collapses.
It must be a cold day in hell, but I agree with Paul Krugman warns the Fed not to “yank away the punch bowl” He is absolutely right. The US Economy and financial markets will reverse in a major way as soon as the FED raises interest rates. Yet, I disagree with the premise. The upcoming rate hike has nothing to do with inflation and has everything to do with re-loading FED’s tool set in time for the next recession.
The problem is, we are nearly there. Despite the recent all time highs in the stock market, the underlying economic indicators continue to deteriorate. The worst possible outcome for the FED is to find itself in a recession while interest rates are at zero. The thing is, that is exactly where we are today and the stock market might be finally waking up to that nightmarish scenario.
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Worse Than Greece? The Shocking Truth About How Broke The USA Really Is.
Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff did not hold back in his Senate Budget Committee testimony, “The first point I want to get across is that our nation is broke. Our nation is broke, and it’s not broke in 75 years or 50 years or 25 years or 10 years. It’s broke today.” He goes on to point out…
- Indeed, it may well be in worse fiscal shape than any developed country, including Greece
- This declaration of national insolvency will, no doubt, shock those of you who use the officially reported federal debt as the measuring stick for what our country owes
- We have a $210 trillion fiscal gap at this point,” Kotlikoff told the senators, which amounts to 211 percent of the U.S.’ $18.2 trillion GDP, making it higher than Greece’s 175 percent debt-to-GDP ratio
- 16 times larger than official U.S. debt, which indicates precisely how useless official debt is for understanding our nation’s true fiscal position
- Stated differently, the overall federal government is 58 percent underfinanced.
And so on and so forth. You get the picture. The US will never be able to repay 25% of its obligations, let alone all of it. This leads to a few possible outcomes. An outright default, war and/or currency debasement/hyperinflation. I wonder which option the fools in our government will choose. Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon.When, How & Why
Worse Than Greece? The Shocking Truth About How Broke The USA Really Is.Google
Happy Birthday Bull Market. Here Is What Happens Next.
3/9/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 139 points (+0.78%) and the Nasdaq up 15 points (+0.31%)
The Dow hit an Intraday low of 6,469 on March 6th, 2009. CNBC anchors were freaking out and most analysts were predicting the next great depression and the Dow 1,000. At the same time, a number of incredibly powerful and important TIME cycles were arriving between March 5-9th. Plus, the Dow was completing an important long-term mathematical point (see analysis on this page). In other words, an important bottom was approaching and I was telling everyone who would listen to BUY, BUY, BUY.
Today, the situation is reversed. The stock market is in a bubble territory and my timing work suggests that we should begin our final secular bear market decline shortly. For instance and as I have suggested so many times before, very few bull markets last longer than 5 years.
- 1914 -1920: Bull Market
- 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
- 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
- 1937-1942: Bear Market
- 1966-1971: Bear Market
- 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
- 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
- 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
- 2009-2014: Bull Market
In fact, prior to this 6 year run up, the longest 5 year cycle lasted between April of 1924 and September of 1929 (5.5 years). This begs the question…….
Are we in a secular bull market or has this bull cycle been artificially extended by the FED’s intervention and QE?
I don’t believe either explanation would be accurate here. First, I don’t believe that we are in a secular bull market. We are still in a secular bear market that started in 2000 and will only complete in 2017. You can find a more detailed analysis here Why A Bear Market Of 2015-2017 Is Unavoidable
Finally, one can argue that most stocks terminated their bull rallies around July of 2014 (5.5 years). As is evident from the chart below, most stocks have been treading water since then. In other words, it is quite possible that a stealth bear leg has already started.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 9th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Happy Birthday Bull Market. Here Is What Happens Next. Google
Is Apple Running Out Of Ideas?
Apple Watch is the future…..seriously??? One can argue that Apple’s stock price has been driven higher in anticipation of Apple Watch. Well, that in addition to Apple’s blow out quarterly results. However, there is a real reason to believe that Apple Watch will face a disastrous launch. Here is why….
- Apple CEO Tim Cook faces biggest test yet with watch introduction
- Apple Watch is a Really Poor Product: McNulty
In addition to a lot of competition, here is my common sense analysis. Outside of geeks and hipsters, I don’t think many people will get Apple Watch. It just doesn’t make any sense in terms of applicable use. Medical applications aside, I just don’t see the need to have two internet devices on ones body, when one of them, the phone, being by far superior to the other. Plus, very few people wear watches this day and age.
I did see the potential of iPod, iTunes, iPhone and iPad. I don’t see it with iWatch. And while I might be proven wrong, I don’t see many people texting or emailing from their watches. It’s not applicable, the screen is too small and the process is, to be frank, idiotic.
The final question is, if Apple’s Watch fails as a product, how much of a haircut will the stock price get. We might find out soon.
Investment Grin Of The Day
Mike “MISH” Shedlock & Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – Weekly Podcast
March 7th, 2015: We have a great show for you this week. Financial adviser and one of the most popular/prominent financial bloggers out there, Mike “MISH” Shedlock, joins hedge fund managers Matthew Demeter and Alex Dvorkin to discuss the following topics….
- Mish’s Blog can be found here. MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis
- What the stock market is doing and what we expect to happen over the next few weeks.
- COT Report and what the big guys are buying. Listen to make sure you are not on the wrong side of the trade.
- Deflation, employment numbers, gold, geopolitical and macroeconomic issues.
- A multitude of great investment ideas and various tops/bottoms that can make you a ton of money.
- And of course, much…..much more.
Don’t miss this one and join us again next Saturday.
Listen to the podcast by clicking on the player above. If you prefer iTunes, please Click Here