“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” ― Mark Twain
Bill Gross On How The FED Confiscates Capital
Couldn’t agree more with Bill Gross. Watch the video below. It’s definitely worth 2 minutes of your time.
- Today’s stock market overvaluation will eventually be corrected.
- The FED is destroying critically important financial business models with their low interest rate policies. Driving more and more people/institution to participate in highly speculative investments. Such as the stock market.
- This is equivalent to capital confiscation and there is no way this ends well.
NASDAQ Hits 5,000 As Insiders Accelerate Selling
3/2/2015 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 153 points (+0.84%) and the Nasdaq up 45 points (+0.90%).
The stock market continues to behave as forecasted. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.
First, a brief history lesson. The last time the Nasdaq hit 5,000 was in March of 2000. It didn’t stay at that level for very long, a few trading days if I remember correctly. Once the blow off top was set, the index proceeded to collapse 75% in 2 years. Yeah, yeah……I know…..it’s different this time. At least according to the mainstream media, today’s valuation levels are supported by earning (an assumption that I have dismantled here quite a number of times).
With that in mind, 5000 is an important level not only from a psychological point of view, but from a technical one as well. Double tops of such big proportions are incredibly important as they often represent major turning points. Insiders tend to agree.
- Why the ‘Smart Money’ Is Bailing Out of the Bull Market
- Massive Insider Selling as Market Hits Record Highs
The first link deserves at least 5 minutes of your time. It presents a fairly good overview of the majority of the things I have covered here over the last few months. Insider selling, overvaluation, excessive bullishness, overbought indicators, speculation, debt fueled buybacks, slowing earnings, weak economic data, etc….
The only remaining question is…….will the Nasdaq break through 5,000 and keep going higher, an outcome most investors anticipate – OR- will it test this double top, back off and then sell-off? If you have been reading my blog for any length of time, I think you know the answer to that questions.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 2nd, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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The Only Relevant Part Of Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter
Warren Buffett’s annual shareholder letters are very well known within the industry. If you haven’t read them before, I highly recommend it. You can find them here Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters. And since his 2014 letter has already been publicized, here is the most important part and its application to today’s stock market (as far as I am concerned).
“Periodically, financial markets will become divorced from reality – you can count on that. …ever forget that 2+2 will always equal 4. And when someone tells you how old-fashioned that math is — zip up your wallet, take a vacation and come back in a few years to buy stocks at cheap prices.”
If Mr. Buffett is not talking about today’s stock market environment in the quote above, well, I give up. In other words, I continue to maintain that investors who look at today’s market and see a huge bubble, will be massively rewarded. Not only by preserving capital at this stage and going long at much lower prices a few years from now, but from having the ability to benefit on the short side. Just at they did at 2000 and 2007 tops.
The Only Relevant Part Of Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter Google
Investment Grin Of The Day
Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – Weekly Podcast
February 28th, 2015: We have a great show for you this week. Hedge fund managers Matthew Demeter and Alex Dvorkin discuss the following topics….
- What the stock market is doing and what we expect to happen over the next few weeks.
- COT Report and what the big guys are buying. Listen to make sure you are not on the wrong side of the trade.
- Swiss Frank, Australian Dollar, Interest Rates, Gold/Silver, Oil, Bond Yields, Copper, Agriculture, Natural Gas and what we expect to happen in these markets.
- A multitude of great investment ideas and various tops/bottoms that can make you a ton of money.
- And of course, much…..much more.
Don’t miss this one and join us again next Saturday.
Listen to the podcast by clicking on the player above. If you prefer iTunes, please Click Here
Billionaire Investor: The Best Shorting Opportunity Since 2007-09 Is NOW!!!
2/27/2015- A down day with the Dow Jones down 81 points (-0.45%) and the Nasdaq down 24 points (-0.49%)
The stock market continues to perform as expected. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.
Billionaire investor and hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, of Odey Asset Management, recently shared some food for thought.
- I think equity markets will get devastated.
- Major economies are entering a recession that will be remembered in a hundred years.
- Bearish opportunity to short stocks looks as great as it was in 2007-2009.
He goes on to say….
We are in the first stage of this downturn. It is too early to see what will happen – a change of this magnitude means the darkness and mist is very great. We will make some mistakes but with our thinking we won’t make the major mistakes. The problem is where you stand – I am amazed to see so many are fully invested given that equities are already fighting the downtrend. Mid and smallcaps have moved into bear markets and much relies on large caps to keep the whole thing going and they are very exposed to international trade.
I mostly agree with Mr. Odey’s economic assessment at this juncture. And while most people would label me as a “perma bear” I would have to disagree with the extent of his bearishness. I know….crazy. Here is why the decline of 2015-2017 will not be as great as the collapse of 2007-2009 and why it is certain that we will not see the crash of 1929-32 nor another great depression. At least for the time being.
This conclusion comes out of my mathematical and timing work. As I have said so many times before, we are now in the final stages of a secular bear market that started in January of 2000. The decline of 2007-2009 was a mid cycle panic. We had the same massive declines in all previous bear markets. For instance, 1907-1908, 1937 crash, 1973-1974.
What does that mean?
It simply means that final secular bear market declines of 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1981-1982 are never as violent as mid-cycle panics. That is to say, while the decline of 2015-2017 will be substantial, leading to big losses, it won’t be as violent nor as deep as the decline of 2007-2009.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 27th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Billionaire Investor: The Best Shorting Opportunity Since 2007-09 Is NOW!!! Google
Is Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) About To Crash? Some Big Players Think So
Bank of America believes Tesla (TSLA) is about to collapse. Bank of America is predicting a massive Tesla collapse
Very quickly, it would be wise to pay attention to this analysis. As I have suggested before, Tesla is highly speculative, massively overvalued and their is no guarantee that the company will succeed in their overall mission. The competition from big automakers is catching up fast. The technicals support B of A assessment and high flyers such as TSLA tend to perform poorly in bear markets. An exact environment we anticipate.
Also, Germany’s Berenberg Bank German Bank Predicts Apple Stock Tumbles Over 50% As Shares Roundtrip To $60
Let’s use a different kind of financial analysis for Apple (AAPL). Let me tell you a short story first. In December of 2002, Apple’s valuation stood at $15 Billion. It is at $750 Billion today. Here is the point I am trying to make. If I would have told investors 12 years ago that Apple would be selling at 50X most recent price, I would have been laughed out of the building. By most investors. Reverse the situation today and you might have your answer. Plus, remember one simple truth when it comes to investing. Everyone loves a certain stock only until no one does.
Is Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) About To Crash? Some Big Players Think So Google
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Raven, a 6 year old chimpanzee, became the 22nd most successful money manager in the USA by throwing darts at a list of internet companies. Raven created her own index, dubbed MonkeyDex, and in 1999 delivered a 213% gain, outperforming more than 6,000 professional brokers on Wall Street.
Is Volatility (VIX/VXX) About To Surge?
I often say that the stock market has two objectives.
- To fool as many people at once as possible.
- To put everyone to sleep or on auto pilot right before a large move in the opposite direction starts.
Watching the stock market this week has been about just as exciting as watching the grass grow. What’s more, about 99% of investors out there are incredibly bullish. We are talking about the Dow 20K in a few months kind of bullish.
Has the stock market set its trap once again?
At least according to the Volatility Index (VIX), the answer is YES. As everything else out there, VIX moves in cycles. And with the stock market approaching irrational exuberance levels while triggering multiple overbought indicators, the VIX is approaching the bottom of its trading range. Suggesting, as it did in September of 2014, that fear is about to rear its ugly head. The only question is, are you listening or are you asleep at the wheel?