InvestWithAlex.com 

Subscribe Today
My Account

Posts

Posted on

Why Bernie Madoff Should Be Our Next FED Chairman

Daily Chart February 26th

2/26/2015 – Another mixed day with the Dow Jones down 10 points (-0.06%) and the Nasdaq up 20 points (+0.42%) 

It is not often that someones comes out and calls like it is. Societe Generale’s notoriously bearish strategist, Albert Edwards, did just that.

The US recovery story is a fraud: SocGen bear

“The downturn in U.S. profits is accelerating and it is not just an energy or U.S. dollar phenomenon – a broad swathe of U.S. economic data has disappointed in February,”

I couldn’t agree more. We have covered this in great detail over the last few months. There is a massive disconnect, for now, between the real US Economy and the stock market.

“The reality is that the vast bulk of economic, as well as earnings, data (even outside the energy sector), has been simply dreadful. The economic cycle will be brought down by asset bubbles bursting long before ‘tight’ policy has any effect. Lessons were learned from the global financial crisis, but not that one.”

Last quarterly report is a perfect illustration on that. Corporates are guiding down in both revenue and earnings. All while the P/E ratios continues to expand due to speculation, buybacks, QE and accounting tricks.  If there was ever a recipe for a disaster, this is it.

“With equity markets galore hitting record highs clearly I must be missing something big!” he said. “I’ve been here before though and know full well how this story ends and it doesn’t involve me being detained in a mental health establishment (usually).”

I have been called all sorts of things in the early 2007 by various market participants. Boy who cried wolf, stupid idiot and my personal favorite, short selling a hole and unbeliever. Yet, the reality remains just as vivid today as it was back then. The stock market is in a massive bubble and it will eventually implode.

In other words, even Bernie Madoff must be amazed at how far the FED took our Ponzi driven economy. Most importantly, that 99.5% of people out there still believe them.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 26th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why Bernie Madoff Should Be Our Next FED Chairman  Google

Posted on

You Know The Stock Market Is About To Top When…..

You know a TOP is near when clueless mainstream financial media talking heads start making fun of well researched bears. No further comment is necessary here.

z33

You Know The Stock Market Is About To Top Out When….. Google

Posted on

Russian Tank Division Spotted 300 Meters Away From The Tijuana Border Crossing

US-Russia-Estonia

Let me ask you something. Should the headline above be true, how long would it be before the US Military unleashes an all out war? A few days…..perhaps a few hours? With that in mind, US armor paraded 300m from Russian border Luckily, some in the US Media are starting to say what I have been saying for well over a year now.

The Boston Globe: Putin’s push into Ukraine is rational

The United States, unlike Russia, respects the sovereignty of its neighbors — but only because they are friendly. If Mexico were to invite Russia to build a military base in Tijuana, or if Canada were to allow Chinese missiles to be deployed in Vancouver, the United States would certainly react. We would not wait to be attacked but would preempt the threat — by military means if necessary. This is precisely what Russia is doing in Ukraine. Rather than wait to be encircled, it is acting to defend its security perimeter.

You would imagine that the view above wouldn’t take much logic. Something that most of our politicians clearly lack. Listen, there are only so many times that you can poke a bear with a stick before this bear rips your head off.  And as I have said before, should the US supply lethal weapons to the Ukrainians, that would be the last draw. US mulling lethal aid to Ukraine; Russian response a concern

Here is another thing that most Americans don’t understand. Russian military is not Taliban or depleted Iraqi army. It has the capability to wipe out the entire European NATO force in a few hours. And I am not even talking about the use of nuclear weapons.  Something that American commanders should consider before parading American tanks 300 meters away from the Russian border. By the way, Hitler did the same thing in 1941.

In other words, the American Government should stop acting like a mentally challenged 5 year old playing with matches and a stick of dynamite. Well, unless they are purposely trying to drag us into yet another pointless war.

z32

Russian Tank Division Spotted 300 Meters Away From The Tijuana Border Crossing Google

Posted on

Why Today’s Stock Market Is More Expensive Than NASDAQ 2000 Bubble

Daily Chart February 25th

2/25/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 15 points (+0.08%) and the Nasdaq down 1 point (-0.02%). 

The stock market continues to perform as forecasted. About two weeks ago I have suggested that a period of low volatility is likely to occur. We are witnessing that today. With that in mind, don’t make the mistake of falling asleep here. According to my mathematical and timing work, volatility will be back with the vengeance shortly. If you would like to find out what happens next and when, please Click Here. 

In the meantime, Hillary Clinton paid $300,000 to explain what ails the middle class.  No surprise there as our future presidential candidate proceeded to blame new technology and male chauvinist culture for all of our economic problems.  The real answer, of course, is not as sexy……a massive Ponzi scheme perpetuated by the FED and the US Government. I told you it wouldn’t be as exciting.

Back to our attempt to illustrate just how out of touch with reality the stock market really is.

I have covered the points in the articles above at least a dozen times over the last few months, yet one persistent assumption remains. Most investors out there believe that today’s valuation levels are nowhere near Nasdaq 2000 levels. The articles above dispel some of that.

With that in mind, I am willing to take it even further. Not only are today’s valuation levels on par with Nasdaq 2000 levels, they are much higher. Here is why. The 10-year note was around 6% in March of 2000. It is at 2% today. If we are to plug 6% into today’s valuation models (not 2%), today’s valuation levels go from incredibly expensive to “the most expensive ever”.

Now, one can argue that we are comparing oranges to apples here. I would have to disagree. If we want to compare today’s valuation levels to 2000 levels, we have to use 2000’s discount rate. It is only then that we realize just how out of touch with reality today’s stock market is. That is to say, there is no way in hell this ends well. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 25th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why Today’s Stock Market Is More Expensive Than NASDAQ 2000 Bubble Google

Posted on

Even Accounting Gimmicks Can No Longer Save Earnings Growth

s&p ratio

I have long argued that most of the corporate earnings growth over the last five years came as a result of 3 primary drivers….

  1. Zero interest rates.
  2. QE.
  3. Share buybacks.

Making today’s stock market one of the most expensive ever. In net historical terms. Unbeknownst to me, I left another driver out. BlackRock brings it home.  BLACKROCK: Accounting Trickery Has Boosted S&P 500 Profits By 86% 

It becomes tempting to take on too much leverage, use financial wizardry to reward shareholders or even stretch accounting principles. S&P 500 profits are 86% higher than they would be if accounting standards of the national accounts were used, Pelham Smithers Associates notes. And the gap between the two measures is widening, the research firm finds.

In other words, it is not enough to borrow money at zero interest rates to institute share buybacks in order to drive earnings higher. By the way, the overall US economy now operates on the same principal. Companies must now stretch their accounting principals in order to show some sort of a earnings growth. Propelling today’s overall valuation and stock market levels from “crazy” to “it doesn’t matter anymore”.

Z31

Even Accounting Gimmicks Can No Longer Save Earnings Growth Google

Posted on

Shocking News: There Is Nothing To Invest In

Daily Chart February 2th

2/24/2015 –  A positive day with the Dow Jones up 92 points (+0.51%) and the Nasdaq up 7 points (+0.14%).

The stock market continues to behave as forecasted. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.

I continue on with my relentless drive to suggest that today’s market environment is about as close to 2000 and 2007 tops as one can get.  And just as back then, very few people are listening or paying attention. Today’s analysis deals with the lack of investment opportunities. (take a look at the article….it is worth 2 minutes of your time).

Managers say they haven’t changed, the market has. The easy money climate of near-zero interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve has artificially inflated prices of lower-quality U.S. stocks, they say, punishing those who focus on businesses with the best fundamentals. At the same time, the relentless climb of prices across equity markets has left them with few chances to sniff out bargains or show what they can do in more-volatile times.

“In straight-up markets you don’t need active managers,” D’Alelio said in a telephone interview. “If the next five years are the same, there won’t be any active managers left.”

Not only do I agree and sympathize with the sentiment above, I find myself in the same boat. There is nothing to invest in. Now, pay attention. I didn’t say to “speculate in”, I have said “to invest in”.

Proper investing demands initial undervaluation in growth or value as a starting point. With most stock being excessively overvalued, finding a reasonably priced investment opportunity at this juncture is just about as tough as finding an honest politician.

At least at 2000 top most of the money flowed into technology and there were a multitude of cheap and unknown investment opportunities laying by the way side. That is not the case today. Everything, and I mean everything has been driven up to excessive levels. We all know how this ends.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 24th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking News: There Is Nothing To Invest In  Google

Posted on

The Secret Behind How The Stock Market Really Works

stock market DNAHere is the best explanation I came across when I first started research into my mathematical and timing work. After more than a decade of development work behind me, I can attest that the statement below is 100% accurate.

Markets being, at minimum, a three-dimensional phenomena, exactly like a large molecule rotating in space, in and out of Z plane, with DNA coding sequences governing the entire process. Without understanding the market is 3-D, twisting like a plant governed by the phyllotactic laws of dual number series and harmonic composition and decomposition, all measurements taken on a 2-D chart become misleading. – Dr. B

Z30

The Secret Behind How The Stock Market Really Works  Google