2/23/2015 – Another mixed day with the Dow Jones down 24 points (-0.13%) and the Nasdaq up 5 points (+0.10%). 

The stock market continues to behave as forecasted. If you would like to find out when and where the market tops out next, please Click Here.

Two relevant views of the stock market in today’s daily update.

• A Stock Market Alarm Is Sounding for the First Time Since 2007
• The Fed is worried about what happens when everyone rushes for the exit

Despite recent higher highs, the market continues to flash a red warning light in various metrics. Today, lets take a quick look at margin debt. As the charts below suggest, long-term margin debt is at an all time high. Higher than at 2000 and 2007 tops. Short-term, margin debt has peaked last year and is now rolling over. That brings into question the validity of today’s rally and the ability of this market to push any higher.

On the flip side, this also raises the question if the liquidity can disappear overnight, just as it did back in 2008. Making the Fed very worried. From January’s FED Minutes.

“Finally, the increased role of bond and loan mutual funds, in conjunction with other factors, may have increased the risk that liquidity pressures could emerge in related markets if investor appetite for such assets wanes.”

Luckily, we do not have to guess here. We just have to look at the most recent sell-off in September-October of 2014. Despite a moderate decline of just 1,500 points on the Dow, the liquidity did dry up at that time. That is to say, should a larger 10-20% sell-off develop over the next few months, it would be wise to anticipate the liquidity to vanish and declines to accelerate. This does not bode well for the overall market.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 23rd, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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Why The FED Is Freaking Out  Google

2/20/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 155 points (+0.86%) and the Nasdaq up 31 points (+0.63%).

In my weekly update to my premium subscribers on January 31st, 2015 I have identified February 3rd, 2015 (+/- 1 trading day) at the Dow 17,050 (+/- 50 points) as a possible turning point. Further, I suggested that if the Dow is to stop there and reverse, it would be highly likely we experience a substantial bounce. Just as we have.

So, how did I do it? In two steps. 

1. A number of powerful cycles arrived between February 2nd and 3rd. That meant one of two things. The Dow would either break below 17,000 and accelerate lower -OR- it would turn around and stage a bounce/rally. What cycles? It would be impossible to describe in this short summary, but you can learn more about it in Timed Value.
2. My multi-dimensional mathematical calculations showed that the move between December 26th top and February 2/3rd bottom, October 16th low and February 2/3rd bottom, etc….(there were many others) would be exactly equal to prior moves. Suggesting a powerful point of force (possible turning point).

The result is now evident. The Dow bottomed on February 2nd at 17,037 before turning around and staging a massive 1,000 + point rally. Thus far. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here. 

In the meantime, John Hussman believes the stock market is so overpriced at this juncture that your return over the next 10-years will be a big fat ZERO. Hussman: Get Ready for 10 Years of Near-Zero Returns on Stocks

“Equity valuations — on the most historically reliable measures we identify — are now fully 117 percent above their pre-bubble norms, on average”

I would have to agree with John on almost everything but the actual print on the Dow 10 years from now. My mathematical and timing work suggests that we will be a lot higher than 18,000 by 2025. Mostly due to inflation, not fundamentals. The trick is to realize how we get there. For instance, those who expect this bull market to continue for the foreseeable future will be utterly disappointed. So will the bears who expect this market to collapse. The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 20th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

The Math Behind Identifying February 2nd Bottom Google