“Acknowledge the complexity of the world and resist the impression that you easily understand it. People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom, because it sounds basically true and it tends to be reinforced by both their peers and opinion leaders, many of whome have never looked at whether the facts support the received wisdom. It’s a basic fact of life that many things “everybody knows” turn out to be wrong.”
― Jim Rogers
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
I am scratching my head here (not really). According to most people in the mainstream, political and financial media the US Economy is on fire. At the same time, despite the appearance of this debt driven economic miracle happening in front of our eyes, at least the Baltic Dry Index (the index of global shipping costs) is not buying it.
The index is down 75% in a little over a year and is now hitting levels unseen since 1986. In other words, if this does not suggest a massive global slow down while piercing the bubble of “perceived” economic prosperity, I don’t know what will.
Need more evidence? Fine, how about this. In their biggest drop since May of 2009, Chinese imports have collapsed 19.9% year-over-year in January, missing expectations of a modest 3.2% increase. Their worst miss since the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. So, if the US Economy is so great, why is global trade collapsing? I don’t think it takes a genius to figure it out.
What You Ought To Know About The Baltic Dry Index Crashing. Google
ALL NEW & FRESH: February 7th, 2015: We have a great show for you this week. Hedge fund managers Matthew Demeter and Alex Dvorkin discuss the following topics….
Don’t miss this one and join us again next Saturday.
Listen to the podcast by clicking on the player above. If you prefer iTunes, please Click Here
2/6/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 62 points (-0.34%) and the Nasdaq down 20 points (-0.43%).
It was a big week for the overall market. A near collapse turned into a massive rally and the bulls are, once again, out in force. With that in mind, a number of important red flags remain. We have talked about some of them in Thursday’s update. Here are some warning signs that other “smart” investors are seeing.
John Bogle: The Stock Market Is Ignoring Big Risks
John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard group, spots quite a few risks.
The market is ought to be nervous. It has been close to 6 years since the last real bear market correction ended on March 6th, 2009. And as I so often suggest, bull market runs don’t typically last for more than 5 to 5.5 years. It’s quite strange, but most markets have not moved very much since July 17th, 2014 top (5.5 years). An ominous sign or just another data point to ignore? Click Here to find out.
David Stockman: Didn’t Anyone Notice US Company Profits Are Falling, Not Rising?
The stock market is not cheap. On the contrary, today’s valuation levels are some of highest in history. I have beaten this point to death over the last year. David Stockman tends to agree.
The huge valuation gains in stocks during the current bull market have nothing to do with an honest marketplace, and the cheering on Wall Street is bound to be replaced by tears, according David Stockman, White House budget chief during the Reagan administration.
Stockman estimates fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings are actually down 5 percent from the year-ago period, but there has been little mention of that fact in media coverage.
“That’s because the talking heads invariably reference ‘adjusted’ or ‘ex-items’ earnings, which, almost by definition, exclude charges for every imaginable business mistake and bonehead executive action — such as soured M&A [merger and acquisition] deals and ‘restructuring’ expense — that could possibly cause earnings to go down.
I couldn’t have said it better myself. And since REAL earnings are going down, corporates are guiding down and buybacks are slowing, at what point does this speculative P/E expansion snaps back? And what would that mean for the stock market….a 30-40-50% haircut? I think we are about to find out.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 6th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Why Some Very Smart Investors Are Worried About This Market Google
Twitter just reported earnings and most investors are the happy. Thus far, the stock is up 16%. With that in mind, here are the reasons investors should consider either getting out of this stock or going short.
In conclusion, I believe Twitter should be put on your “Stocks To Short” watch list. Should a short-term downtrend develop here, a short position would make sense. Considering a bear market of 2015-2017, a break below $35 can result in a quick 50% gain on the short side.
Why Twitter (TWTR) Should Go On Your “Stocks To Short” List Google
I was watching a documentary on World War I a few days ago and I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. Politicians spewing garbage, crazy propaganda from all sides and outlandish guarantees of a fast victory. Young, smiling and dancing men boarding trains to the front lines as if they were destined for a hooker town. Most of them never made it back.
We are seeing the same situation today. I often get accused of being Pro-Russia or Pro-Putin. I am not as I could care less about any of that stuff. What I do care about is Obama’s Administration relentless drive towards war with Russia. Western Media propaganda aside, I’ll ask again……
What is the US and NATO doing in Ukraine? A nation 6,000 miles away from the American shoreline. Why is the US hell bent on starting a war with Russia?
As of right now, no one has been able to provide me with a legitimate answer. Occasionally a naive soul will suggest that the US is trying to bring freedom, liberty, unicorns and rainbows to the Ukrainian people. Perhaps and perhaps Santa is real.
Is Obama’s ego so fragile that he has to start a war in Ukraine after suffering a humiliating defeat in Syria at the hands of Putin? Bingo…..you have your answer. In the meantime…….
And so on and so forth. To tie this up, we have to start asking our political leadership some tough questions. It is time for the US Government/Media to stop using scare tactics and propaganda to drive America into yet another pointless war. Is that too much to ask for?
Why Is The US Hell Bent On Starting A War With Russia? Google
2/5/2014 – Another up day with the Dow Jones up 212 points (+1.20%) and the Nasdaq up 48 points (+1.03%).
On January 31st I told my subscribers that the market might bottom and turn around at the Dow 17,050 (+/- 50 points) on February 3rd (+/- 1 trading day). The Dow hit an Intraday bottom of 17,038 on February 2nd. Then turned around and surged 840+ points in 4 trading days. Thus far.
The question is, is this the beginning of the next rally (buy the dip) or is this yet another “short squeeze”?
There are a number of things to consider.
And that’s just off of the top of my head. In other words, while this rally might be the “real deal”, don’t get too excited. Given the circumstances above, the market can just as easily dive 1,000-2,000 points by the end of February.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 4th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Jeremy Siegel is at it again. The Dow squeezed the juice out of most of the bears in a massive 3 day rally and the Dow 20,000 seems like a good idea once again. Dow 20,000 still ‘very, very possible’: Siegel Lower oil, stronger dollar, low interest rates, etc…….everything is about as good as it gets. That is to say, it’s time to pawn your left kidney and load up on some out of money call options.
On the flip side, Stocks will be ‘ripped to smithereens’: SocGen bear WAIT…WHAT???….take it easy there. According Societe Generale’s notoriously bearish strategist, Albert Edwards, we are in a massive deflation and stocks are about to get decimated.
So, who do you believe?
I can’t say for sure, but I would imagine that Mr. Edwards has a much better understanding of where we are headed. I agree. We are in a massive deflation and the stock market is spectacularly overvalued. That can only lead to one outcome. And as far as Mr. Siegel’s prediction goes, I don’t see it. On the contrary, my mathematical and timing work shows that we will only see 20,000 print in the year 2019. That’s quite a long time to wait.
Who Do You Believe: Dow 20,000 Or Ripped To Smithereens Google
In reference to the previous post.
Einstein dies and goes to heaven only to be informed that his room is not yet ready. “I hope you will not mind waiting in a dormitory. We are very sorry, but it’s the best we can do and you will have to share the room with others” he is told by the doorman.
Einstein says that this is no problem at all and that there is no need to make such a great fuss. So the doorman leads him to the dorm. They enter and Albert is introduced to all of the present inhabitants. “See, Here is your first room mate. He has an IQ of 180!”
“Why that’s wonderful!” Says Albert. “We can discuss mathematics!”
“And here is your second room mate. His IQ is 150!”
“Why that’s wonderful!” Says Albert. “We can discuss physics!”
“And here is your third room mate. His IQ is 100!”
“That Wonderful! We can discuss the latest plays at the theater!”
Just then another man moves out to capture Albert’s hand and shake it. “I’m your last room mate and I’m sorry, but my IQ is only 80.”
Albert smiles back at him and says, “So, where do you think interest rates are headed?”
