As Russia’s oil revenue collapses, a new export is expected to make up the difference. Get Yours Today!!!
Is China Beginning To Collapse?
We have been talking about China’s “ponzi” economy for well over a year now. Here is just a small sample of our previous work Shocking: China’s Housing Collapse Is Already In Full Swing. It now appears that China’s massive fraud is beginning to unravels. Consider the news flow.
- China’s 2014 economic growth slowest in more than 2 decades
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China’s $20 Trillion Headache Underscored by Stock Swings
- The Scale Of The Chinese Real Estate Crash Is Terrifying
Here are just a few more bits that should scare the bejeezus out of you.
- Chinese corporate borrowers owed $14.2 trillion at the end of 2013 Vs $13.1 trillion owed by U.S. corporations.
- This means that as much as 10 percent of global corporate debt is exposed to the risk of a contraction in China’s informal banking sector.
- Cash flows and leverage at Chinese corporations are the worst among global peers, having deteriorated from being the best in 2009.
As I have mentioned in the past, most of China’s economic growth over the last 5-6 years has been financed by massive credit expansion. The likes of which we have never seen before. The result?
- $21 Trillion Debt Mountain. Roughly the same size as the entire US Banking Sector. It took the US 220 years to get to that number, it took China just 5 years of explosive credit growth.
- $6 Trillion In Shadow Banking. Actually, no one knows how large this number is. I have read good data/reports putting this number at $10-15 Trillion range.
- Empty cities, shopping centers, massive speculative bubble in real estate, built out infrastructure, rising cost of labor and export driven economy.
How much longer can this go on? Well, that’s a Trillion dollar question…..or a $40 Trillion dollar question. Apparently, it is already unraveling. Either way, one thing is for sure, this will not end well nor will it end in an orderly fashion.
Weekly Podcast: Hedge Fund Manager Matt Demeter On Artificial Intelligence, Financial Markets, Currencies, Investment Ideas
Brilliant Hedge Fund Manager Matthew Demeter Discusses The Following Topics With Yours Truly.
- The state of today’s stock market.
- Artificial Intelligence and how it is about to impact everything over the next 5-20 years. Plus, investment ideas in the field that can make you a ton of money.
- Biotech, the future and field related investment ideas.
- Currencies and interest rates.
- Plus, a ton of other great investment ideas and much more…..
Listen to the podcast by clicking on the player above. If you prefer iTunes, please Click Here
Weekly Update: Marc Faber, FX Bloodbath & Upcoming Bear Market
1/16/2015 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 190 points (+1.10%) and the Nasdaq up 63 points (+1.39%).
The stock market continues to perform exactly as forecasted. If you would like to find our what happens next, please Click Here. In the meantime, a number of things to consider over the weekend.
Marc’s fundamental view of our current economic environment is right on the mark. I couldn’t agree more. Unfortunately, his timing has been terrible over the last few years. As a result of predicting a massive bear market since about 2011. Has he thrown in the towel?
Not by a long shot, but his timing and his ultimate S&P target might backfire…..once again. In terms of timing and missing a large down move. When perma bears such as Marc Faber suggest that the market is about to surge higher, the maximum bearish pain threshold is hit and the time might be right to go short. That is too say, don’t wait for 2,500.
- Swiss franc’s ‘unprecedented’ surge causes 2 brokerage firms to become insolvent
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Largest Retail FX Broker Stock Crashes 90% As Swiss Contagion Spreads
By now everyone should be familiar with what the Swiss did with their Swiss Franc, its impact on currency/financial markets and complete devastation they have caused throughout FX industry. As a result, everyone from Goldman Sachs to a typical day trading grandmother suffered massive losses.
There are two simple lessons here.
First, don’t try to be on the same side of the trade as everybody else. It rarely pays. On the contrary, the probability of it blowing up in your face is typically high. Just as we saw. Second, don’t use leverage. Countless speculators, including 2-5 large FX brokers were literally wiped out. I am sure we haven’t yet heard about all the damage the move caused. In many cases capital that took years and even decades to accumulate, was destroyed in a matter of minutes. In other words, don’t leverage up 1:100 and expect good things to happen. Sooner or later you will get destroyed.
A good overall look at why smart investors should anticipate a bear market sooner rather than later. An article definitely worth your time. Think about it in the following fashion. Those who outright dismiss even the slightest possibility of a bear market, despite a 5.5 year bull market cycle, might soon find themselves with large losses. Just as they did in 2008. Yet, those who a smart enough to prepare will be able to avoid losses and even profit.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 16th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Weekly Update: Marc Faber, FX Bloodbath & Upcoming Bear Market Google
Should I Invest In Twitter (TWTR)? – Daily Podcast
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Investment Grin Of The Day
Dreaming Of Another Housing Bubble
According to CNBC, real estate is almost back to normal Housing is about 75% back to normal. My response is……keep dreaming. Those who participate in financial markets very well know that nothing moves up or down in a straight line. Meaning, what we are witnessing today in real estate is an intermediate top and a roll over into a 3rd leg down. The same leg down we saw in the stock market between 2007-2009. Consider the real news.
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Who needs a mortgage? Mortgage applications running near multi-decade lows while mortgage rates fall.
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Where did the real estate agents go? California has lost nearly 90,000 active real estate agents since 2008.
In the early October of 2013 I came out with a startling forecast. At that time I have suggested that the “Dead Cat Bounce” in the real estate market from 2010 bottom was now over and that the real estate market was about to embark on a massive leg down. Again, not that dissimilar to what had happened in the stock market between 2007-2009 (mid cycle panic). I have also suggested that while it will be hard to see initially because all real estate is local, by the time we get to 2015, the upcoming real estate disaster should be evident to everyone. (you can search the blog from October of 2013 to verify this)
Well, now it is Case-Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most Since Dec 2011, Miss 2nd Month In A Row
When I first forecasted this mid cycle panic in real estate most market participants have assumed that I was on some sort of cocaine binge or have simply gone insane. A typical reaction. Yet, if you are interested in learning what will happen in the real estate market I highly recommend my report Real Estate Collapse 2.0 Why, How & When What happens next will make the 2006-2010 decline in real estate prices look like a joke.
If North Korea Was Analyzing Financial Markets
1/15/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 103 points (-0.59%) and the Nasdaq down 69 points (-1.48%).
I thought I have heard every bullish argument until I have heard this. Get this, despite the Dow being up 8.17% and the Nasdaq being up 14% in 2014, apparently we had a “stealth correction” during the year. Better yet, because of this stealth correction the stock market is about to push much higher. Just as it did after 1994. The stealth correction investors missed
“Looking back at 2014, what was overlooked—and what was glaring to us—is that the S&P 500 had this great year but most stocks didn’t have as great of a year. This is the stealth bear market we are talking about. Your average median stock, specifically the small and mid-caps, had a much more sideways year. Yet if history is a guide, that may be the prelude to a great 2015 for stocks all around.”
“This is actually very reminiscent of the behavior we saw in 1994 where there was a similar ‘stealth bear market’ in a lot of small- and mid-cap stocks,” he said. “Back in ’94, small caps underperformed for most of the year. And then something important happened late in the year—there was a divergence in activity where the small caps fell to a new 52-week low and the S&P 500 did not. There was a subsequent reversal and that really helped stage the next leg of the advance.” -Oppenheimer & Co.
Nice try, even North Korea would be proud of the nonsense above. There are multiple problems here. First, we had a real correction in 1994 where the Dow declined 12% top to bottom. Second, we had a strong positive year in 2014 that had nothing to do with 1994. Cyclically or otherwise. Finally and most importantly, 1994 marked the beginning of the final 5-year bull market blow off cyclical run in the overall 1982-2000 secular bull market. Today, we are still in a secular bear market that will only complete in 2017.
That is to say, the premise above is a whole lot of baloney. There will be a big correction off today’s bubble levels and those who believe otherwise will take a major beating. Just as they did in 2008.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 15th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Should I Invest In Penny Stocks? – Daily Podcast
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