Visitor Question:Why Are Bond Yields Declining When Most Expect Interest Rates To Surge? Listen to our short 5-10 minute podcast to find out. Plus, don’t forget to email me your questions.
Why Are Bond Yields Declining When Most Expect Interest Rates To Surge? Google
You know that bulls are running out of ammunition when the Presidential cycle is used as a catalyst for any future advance. Charts predict the best year to own stocks
From 1833 to 2012, the stock market has on average rallied 1.9 percent in the first year of a president’s term, 4.2 percent in year two and 5.8 percent in the fourth year. Year three is the biggest, and has a return of 10.4 percent market gain in the Dow Jones Industrial average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI). The only year this didn’t occur was in 1931, the height of the Great Depression. “It’s not just that the market tends to rise during the year before a presidential election. It’s the consistency of this pattern that is so impressive,” said the “Mad Money” host.
I guess it’s time to remind you, once again, that this type of analysis should have no place in financial market. Especially if you are interested in making money. Presidential cycles, years ending in 5, etc…..it’s a fools game. The stock market is a much more complex entity and the second you think you have got it it figured out, it changes. By design. In other words, this sort of simple analysis works only until it backfires, big time.
1/6/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 132 points (-0.75%) and the Nasdaq down 60 points (-1.30%).
The stock market continues to perform just as forecasted. If you would be interested in learning what happens next, please Click Here.
The biggest story in the market today is the plunge in interest rates. The 10-Year Note is now below 2%. We will discuss that in greater detail tomorrow. In the meantime, it is nice to find yourself on the same page as Bill Gross. Bloomberg: Bill Gross Says the Good Times Are Over
“When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes,” Gross, 70, wrote in the outlook. “The good times are over.”
That’s quite a statement as he goes on to suggest that folks should get out of the way. I tend to agree with Bill and the subject matter is rather easy. The stock market is in a massive overvaluation bubble driven by QE, zero interest rates and speculative spirits. And even though the US Economy appears to be doing quite well, it is an illusion driven by all of the above. That is why the 10-year note is below 2%. The bond market is not buying it.
That is to say, imagine yourself at 2007 and 2000 tops and you will have a fairly good understanding of where we are today.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 6th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Visitor Question: Is Right Now A Good Time To Invest In Biotech? Listen to our short 5-10 minute podcast to find out. Plus, don’t forget to email me your questions.
Is Right Now A Good Time To Invest In Biotech? – Daily Podcast Google
Most in financial industry are acutely aware of Warren Buffett’s quote “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”. And as evident from the chart above, perhaps no market has more blood running through the streets right about now than the oil market and all related companies….even countries.
As a result, everyone and their day trading grandmother are looking for a bottom in an attempt to make untold riches when oil prices finally rebound. Oil Investors Keep Betting Wrong on When Market Will Bottom
This mindset leads me to a simple conclusion. There won’t be a strong rebound in oil price anytime soon. This move down appears to be more structural as opposed to technical in nature. Meaning, once oil finds its bottom, it might rebound 10-20% only to fall back and trade within a certain trading range. For many years to come. What gold did since its sell-off in 2012 would be a perfect illustration of that.
In other words, while it is possible oil will have a large rebound after it finds bottom, don’t count on it. Until and unless everyone gives up on oil and looks at it with disgust, it is unlikely to stage a large rebound, let alone a bull move.
1/5/2015 – A big down day with the Dow Jones down 330 points (-1.85%) and the Nasdaq down 74 points (-1.57%)
The stock market continues to perform just as forecasted. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.
In the meantime, Goldman Sachs knows exactly what the market will do in 2015 Goldman Sachs Expects The Stock Market To Follow A Very Specific Path In 2015
There you go ladies and gentlemen, just follow the chart above. It will lead you to the promise land of untold riches. It could even be the secret FED chart of where Janet Yellen wants Goldman to guide the market. Too bad it ends the year at a break even point.
On a more serious note, my work continues to show that 2015 will be a tough year for everyone involved. I continue to stand by my forecast that the market will drive both bulls and bears up the wall. Sharp declines (as today) will be followed by strong rallies, rinse and repeat. In the end, only the market timers who are able to switch positioning at major turning points will be able to benefit. Everyone else, particularly the bulls, will lose money.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 5th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Visitor Question: What Do You Believe The Biggest Investment Misconception Of 2015 Is? Listen to our short 5-10 minute podcast to find out. Plus, don’t forget to email me your questions.
What Do You Believe The Biggest Investment Misconception Of 2015 Is ?Google
