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Robert Shiller Thinks Stocks & Real Estate Are Overpriced

daily chart Sept 30 2014

9/30/2014 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 28 points (0.16%) and the Nasdaq down 12 point (0.28%). 

While Robert Shiller is too smart to argue with CNBC talking heads about how overvalued both the stock and real estate markets are, you have got to read between the lines. Particularly, when he says things such as “The stock market is overpriced, bubble city, due for a correction, etc…”.

If he wasn’t trying to be so “politically correct”, he would simply say that both markets are due for a massive corrections. Thus far, my real estate prediction is playing out exactly as predicted….although a little bit slower Real Estate Collapse 2.0 Why, How & When

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 30th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

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Robert Shiller Thinks Stocks & Real Estate Are Overpriced  Google

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The Secret Behind Timing 2007 Market Top

2002 nasdaq

Continuation from yesterday…….What You Ought To Know About Shorting Nasdaq In March Of 2000

This simple strategy would have allowed investors to cover their short positions and go long shortly after the bottom was reached.

Trade #3: Cover your short position at 1,350 in October of 2002 and go long.  Move realized gain 3,400. Net realized gain up to date 7,430 or 931%.

What followed was a 5 year bull market represented by an exact 5 year cycle. Lasting between October 10th, 2002 and October 11th, 2007. Once again, any analyst familiar with the work above would have known two things. First, once the five year cycle was over the market was likely to start its next bear leg down. Second, this bear leg would represent a “Mid-Cycle Panic” discussed earlier or the fastest moving decline of the entire 2000-2017 bear market.

In other words, such an analyst should have been looking for a market reversal as soon as October of 2007. Ready to liquidate his or her long position and to go short. Such a confirmation arrived in early January of 2008 when the Nasdaq broke below both its lower low and a rising trend line. Once the confirmation was received a long position should have been liquidated and a short position should have been established.

Trade #4: Exit your long position at 2,550 in January of 2008 and go short at the same time. Move realized gain 1,200. Net realized gain up to date 8,630 or 1,100%.

As expected, the market proceeded to collapse between October of 2007 and March of 2009. When the mid cycle panic ended most indices had lost in excess of 50%. The Nasdaq bottomed on March 9th at 1,265. An analyst familiar with the cyclical composition of the market would have known that “Mid-Cycle Panics” do not last longer than two years. In addition, given the extent of the decline on the Dow and due to a number of powerful cycles arriving in early March of 2009, it would have been a good guess that the market was about to bottom.  As such, a bottom of some sort should have been anticipated in the first half of 2009.

The first signs of a reversal occurred in late March and early April of 2009 when the Nasdaq both broke above a down slopping trend line and set a higher high. Suggesting a trend reversal. A short position should have been covered at the time and a log position should have been established.

Trade #5:  Cover your short position at 1,350 in April of 2009 and go long at the same time. Move realized gain 1,200. Net realized gain up to date 9,830 or 1,265%.

To Be Continued Tomorrow……

z33

The Secret Behind Timing 2007 Market Top Google

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Warren Buffett Is Getting Out….Crash Coming?

daily chart Sept 29 2014

9/29/2014 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 42 points (-0.25%) and the Nasdaq down 6 points (-0.14%).

A number of important articles below that I hope illustrate to you exactly where we are and what’s coming up next.

If you would be interested in having a good laugh at the expense of mainstream financial media who wouldn’t be able to analyze a dishwasher lease if it hit them in the face, let alone tell you what’s going on in the stock market….take a look.

Nice try, but there is one big problem. At previous market tops in 2000 and 2007 both Greenspan and Bernanke had the ability to not only to cut interest rates from a relatively high base, but to introduce QE. Jannet Yellen doesn’t have any ammunition left with interest rates at net ZERO and QE still pumping. In other words, once a bear market of 2014-2017 kicks into high gear Janet Yellen is f$#*ed.

As the article indicates, a number of Billionaires, including Warren Buffett, are dumping some serious stock. The question is……why? What most people don’t realize about Warren Buffett is that he has impeccable timing abilities. In fact, its one thing that most WB experts miss in their analysis. To become a Billionaire you got to have perfect timing and I think Mr. Buffett is right on time….again.

I hope you can put 2 and 2 together? 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 29th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Warren Buffett Is Getting Out….Crash Coming? Google

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What You Ought To Know About Shorting Nasdaq In March Of 2000

nasdaq

Continuation from Friday….. (How You Could Have Made A Fortune Shorting The Nasdaq)

That is exactly what happened in early March of 2000. The Nasdaq topped out at around 5,050, declined slightly into the middle of March before bouncing up into a perfect bearish setup by March 24th.  An analyst familiar with the cyclical work above would have been aware that if the March bottom of 4,800 was to be penetrated on the downside a bear leg and a possible crash would be in the cards.

As soon as such confirmation was realized, all investors following the “Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover” investment strategy should have exited their net long Nasdaq positions and reversed their portfolios to net short. Immediately. And indeed, the confirmation was received by the end of March when the Nasdaq broke below its March 17th bottom of 4,800.

Trade #2:  Exit long position at 4,750. Reverse course and go short at the same price. Net realized gain up to date 4,030 points or 560%.

As soon as March low was broken on the downside the Nasdaq quickly collapsed by more than 30%, reaching its intermediary bottom by the end of May. Yet, investors familiar with the overall cyclical composition of the market would have been aware that bear market legs do not last 60 days.  They would have been aware that this collapse was just the start of a prolonged bear market cycle.

Furthermore, they would have been aware that initial bear market legs tend to last 2-3 years as all previous bear markets had initiated with such prolonged declines. For example, 1900 top to 1903 bottom, 1929 top to 1932 bottom and 1966 top to 1970 bottom. The Nasdaq continued to decline until it reached its bottom of 1,108 on October 10th, 2002. An 80% decline.

By the time October 2002 bottom was reached, analysts familiar with the cyclical work above should have been, once again, on a heightened state of alert. This time around they would have been anticipating and looking for a market bottom.  Ready to cover their short positions and to go long at a moment’s notice.  Such a confirmation was obtained when the market broke above its down trending trend line in October of 2002.

To Be Continued Tomorrow……

Z30

What You Ought To Know About Shorting Nasdaq In March Of 2000 Google

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Why A 1,000 Point Down Day Will Spell Armageddon

daily chart Sept 26 2014Weekly Update & Summary: September 27th, 2014

A negative week with the Dow Jones down 168 points (-0.97%) and the Nasdaq down 68 points (-1.48%). During the week, the Dow left a number of up gaps behind. With the highest one being at 17,283, suggesting a short-term bounce. With that said, the Dow continues to maintain a number of down gaps leading all the way down to August 7th low and a large gap from August 18th at around 16,650. Suggesting an eventual correction.

And that’s just the beginning. The market continues to have two large gaps down from April 14th/16th and a number of smaller gaps leading all the way back to February 5th low.  I continue to believe that the Dow will close such gaps when the next bear leg develops at below mentioned time frames (please see mathematical analysis & timing section below).

Friday’s Update:

The market had a fairly strong rebound following yesterday’s bloodbath. What’s interesting is that everyone is still trying to figure what might have caused the decline. Cashin: What could be behind the selloff. Theories are abound and range from bending iPhones to some hedge fund liquidating a large position, from illiquidity in credit markets to Russia getting ready to freeze out the EU bureaucrats this winter. I would pay to see the last one.

Yet, all of that is irrelevant BS when it comes to financial markets and what had caused yesterday’s slide. Here is what you should consider instead. 

First, the Dow declined a miserly 250 points and most in financial media lost their shit. Literally. I can only imagine what will happen if the Dow has a bear market day and loses 1,000 points or so. Armageddon? And while this might seem trivial, it is not. This gives you a psychological setup of most investors. In other words, once the market really begins to move down, given today’s psychological makeup, most investors will freak out. Leading to a possible panic and/or a crash.

Second, no one will ring the bell at the top. Most of the conversations focused on why today’s environment is not indicative of a market top and why the market still has some time run. Again, everyone is missing the point. By the time everyone realizes a bear market is in play we will already be down 10-20% or it will be too late to avoid losses.

Just look at 2000 and 2007 tops. Maybe I am suffering from amnesia, but I don’t recall neither Greenspan nor Bernanke holding a press conference and announcing that a bear market was about to start. On the contrary, they were hyping up how great the economy was. It wasn’t until the market was down 20-25% that everyone realized what was happening. As always, it was too late to do anything.

The upcoming bear market will present itself in a very same fashion. In short, anyone who is trying to identify the market top based on various fundamental reasons is playing a fools game.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 26th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why A 1,000 Point Down Day Will Spell Armageddon  Google

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How You Could Have Made A Fortune Shorting The Nasdaq

stock market cycle

Continuation from yesterday……(The Composition Of 2000 -2017 Bear Market)

Investment Strategy #2: What Most People Did  (The Reality….Worst Possible Outcome).

Think about the following for a second. While “Buying & Holding Forever” is a nice catch phrase, very few investors out there can do so consistently. For instance, how many people do you know that were able not only to hold on to most of their stock positions during the bear legs of 2002 and 2008, but to add to their positions during the time. Chances are, not many.

For the purposes of this discussion, let’s assume that ….

  • You were fortunate enough to originate your position in November of 1994. Right before the final 600% run up took place.
  • Subsequently, you sold out half way through all of the bear legs and bought back in half way thought all of the bull market legs.

… which should be lot better than what most people were able to accomplish during this difficult time.

Given the circumstances above, your total ROI should have been around 425% by September of 2014 and approximately 320% by the time the bear market of 2014-2017 completes itself. Yielding a net annualized rate of return of 8.5% and 6.5% respectively. Not bad, but once again, buying and holding a 30-Year US Treasury in 1994 would have outperformed this gut wrenching speculation in Nasdaq by a fairly good margin.

Investment Strategy #3: Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short and Cover

As was suggested earlier, based on the cyclical composition within the stock market you should have been aware that the last phase of the 1982-1999/2000 bull market was about to start. In addition, you should have been aware that the upcoming cycle is likely to develop as a powerful “blow-off top” 5-Year cycle.  Leading you to initiate a long position in November of 1994.

Trade #1:  Go long in November of 1994 at 720 on Nasdaq.

As October and November of  1999 rolled around, any investor familiar with the cyclical composition of the stock market should have been aware that a bull market was ending and that a 17-18 year bear market was about to begin. As a result, such investors would have been looking for any sign of a top and an opportunity to reverse position.

The first sign of a top occurred in early January of 2000 when the Dow topped out at 11,850. Exactly 5 years and 35 trading days after the cycle began in November of 1994. Yet, despite the Dow’s sell-off between January and March of 2000, the Nasdaq kept surging higher. Setting a blow off top in the process.

Believe it or not, that was an optimal outcome and a trade setup. This divergence should have been a clear sign that a blow off top was forming and that a market crash was likely once the top on the Nasdaq was set and confirmed. In fact, investors familiar with the cyclical composition above should have been watching the market like hawks for any sign of a top and bearish reversal. Ready to liquidate their long positions and go short at a moment’s notice.

To Be Continued On Monday…….

Z31

How You Could Have Made A Fortune Shorting The Nasdaq Google

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Did Apple’s Bending Phone Caused Today’s Meltdown?

daily chart Sept 25 2014

9/25/2014 – A big down day with the Dow Jones down 264 points (-1.54%) and the Nasdaq down 88 points (-1.94%).

It took the market just 30 minutes to retrace the big gains from yesterday. In the process, all markets opened up a big up gap in the morning. A gap that the market will have to close at some point in the future.

On top that, today’s market action did a lot of damage to the overall market and its structure. And while only Russell 2000 is now in a clear technical downtrend, today’s action brings out a number of important questions that both bulls and bears should consider.

Primary, is this the start of something more or this your typical 2-5% correction that should be over fairly soon?    

Unfortunately, it is an impossible question to answer if you are relying solely on fundamental analysis and a next to impossible question to answer (at this stage) if you are to add technical analysis into the mix. With more divergences in most markets than hookers in Amsterdam, the market is essentially free to either stage a massive bounce here or to go through an outright collapse.

A better analytical tool is a must. As such, I suggest you check out my timing and mathematical work as soon as possible if you would like to know what happens next. To start, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 25th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Did Apple’s Bending Phone Caused Today’s Meltdown?  Google