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Who Will Win The Nuclear World War 3

cropped-univers

Continuation from yesterday…….When people first learn about my forecast, they typically follow up with the following questions.

  • Who will win?
  • Will the US prevail? Will China rule the world? Will Russia be the only country left standing?

Everyone is missing the point. No one will win. The prophecies of the past are quite clear in this regard. They oftentimes portray the final war so terrible, that those who survive the initial nuclear exchange would wish that they didn’t.  Famine, utter collapse of society, violence, mobs, disease, etc…. Basically, the life as we know it today will come to a screeching halt.  Only to be replaced by chaos, violence and human drive for survival at any cost.

Remember, if the scenario outlined in this book does come to a fruition, as my stock market work suggests, billions (not millions) of people will die.  With most population centers throughout the world (particularly those in China, Russia, the EU and the US) ending up as radioactive wastelands, no one on this planet will be able to avoid the consequences.  Even those living off the grid will be impacted by climate changes, radioactive fallouts and subsequent changes in the world order. Again……

Nation shall rise against nation
using the dark forces to shatter the Earth.
Weapons of force shall wipe out the Earth-man
until half of the races of men shall be gone.
Then shall come forth the Sons of the Morning
and give their edict to the children of men, saying:
O men, cease from thy striving against thy brother.
Only thus can ye come to the Light.
Then shall men cease from their striving,
brother against brother and father against son.

No one will win. Humanity as a whole will lose.  Big time. The only consolation prize comes from a number of religious texts and various prophecies that discuss the subject matter and its aftermath.  Most prelude to the fact that this war will be so terrible and so damaging to the human psyche that future generations will tremble at a thought of a war or harming another human being.  Propelling the human race of the future towards peace, prosperity, harmony and higher consciousness. For now, we can only hope that such an outcome will be the case.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…….(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

z33

Who Will Win The Nuclear World War 3 Google

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How To Trade Tenbaggers

Continuation from yesterday…….

That is exactly what happened in August of 2001 when Keurig’s stock broke below its lower low at around $2.50 a share and headed lower.  At that point, any investor who was watching the stock should have A. Sold his holding and B. Gone short.  The overall probability of a significant stock decline was too great not to do so. After all, technical analysis was confirming the move.

GMCR Trade #1: Sell and go short at $2.50 a share. Realized profit from the previous entry point….. $2.25 a share or 900%.

As the chart above illustrates, Keurig’s stock price proceeded to bottom out in October of 2002 at around $1.00 a share.  Around the same time the Dow hit a low point for its 2000-2002 bear leg. An analyst familiar with the overall mathematical composition of the stock market would be aware of the fact and would be, once again, watching the stock price very carefully for any sign of the bottom and the subsequent trend reversal.  Ready to cover and go long at a moment’s notice.  And indeed, such a confirmation arrived in March of 2003 when the company’s stock price pushed above its previous high at $1.25 a share.

GMCR Trade #2: Cover our short position at $1.25 a share and go long. Realized profit from the previous entry point….. $1.25 or 50%.  Overall profit $3.50 or 1,300%

What followed was an uninterrupted bull market in Keurig’s share price between March of 2003 and December of 2007.  During this time the company’s share price appreciated from $1.25 to approximately $9 a share.  And that’s where it gets interesting.  An investor working with the overall mathematical and cyclical composition of the stock market would be aware of the 5-Year bull cycle terminating in the late 2007 and an impending secular bear market mid cycle correction.  Similar to those in 1907-1908, 1941-1942 and 1972-1974. In other words, with the fundamental analysis flashing signs of general stock market overvaluation and with the mathematical work suggesting a deep decline, it was highly probable that Keurig’s stock price was about to go through another correction.

To Be Continued Tomorrow……

GMCR5

z32

How To Trade Tenbaggers  Google

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How To Control Stress And Fear If You Are A Wall Street Trader

wall street stress

Continuation from two weeks ago…..As I was about to start working on this section of the book the following breaking news story hit the wires, “Robin Williams Commits Suicide at 63”.  Williams, one of my favorite actors and one of the most successful comics of all time had everything.  At least what most people could only dream of.  Wealth, a successful career in a highly competitive business, millions of fans, critical acclaim, an Oscar, children, a loving family, health, exciting projects and a bright future. Yet, after making millions of us laugh, it wasn’t enough. He was dying inside. Depression, drugs, alcohol were just too much to handle. And while we will never know what finally forced him to take that final step, his actions were preventable by applying the same concepts discussed in this book.

Just like the rest of us, Robin Williams was too closely associated with his own mind to come to a realization that he could control it. To come to a realization that he could control the negative energies associated with depression, stress, fear, greed, jealousy and a million other negative emotions. To come to a realization that could separate from them and then transform them into something positive. In the very same fashion that we will be transforming STRESS energies in this book.  Most importantly, this ability would have given him the strength and the skills necessary to overcome most of his obstacles. Perhaps giving him the attitude necessary to save his own life in the process. Just as I’ve saved my own many years ago.

Outside of being in an active combat zone or perhaps an emergency room physician, stock traders or investors who actively participate in financial markets work in the highest pressure/stress environment on Earth. Day in and day out.  Think about it for a second.  Money managers who work with large sums of money have the ability to make or lose tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars within just a few hours.  Often making millions of dollars one day, only to lose it all, and their shirt, a few days later. In fact, the emotional peaks and valleys for most of the Wall Street traders might be as extreme as a highly speculative tech stock behaving in an erratic fashion.

In other words, the amount of STRESS associated with avoiding losses while trying to outperform the competition on the Wall Street is truly immense. If we can somehow ascertain how to control STRESS energies associated with trading in the stock market, we can then easily apply the same principles to our daily lives. To deal with various STRESS energies on the consistent basis.

Perhaps one of the most successful and best known traders on the Wall Street was Jesse Livermore (1877-1940). He was famous for establishing a number of trading approaches that are still in use today as well as making and losing several fortunes in his lifetime.  Most notable, we was able to amass a fortune of $3 million after 1907 crash and a fortune of over $100 million (over $1 Billion in today’s money) after 1929 stock market crash. Only to lose both shortly thereafter.

In essence, Livermore introduced a trading philosophy that emphasized increasing the size of winning positions while quickly cutting losses.

“All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope.  That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis. The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich quick adventurer. They will die poor.” —Jesse Livermore, How To Trade In Stocks

To Be Continued Tomorrow……..(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

Z30

How To Control Stress And Fear If You Are A Wall Street Trader  Google

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Is Today’s Market More Overvalued Than It Was At 2000 and 2007 Tops?

daily chart August 11 2014 8/11/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 16 points (+0.10%) and the Nasdaq up +30 points (+0.70%).

The stock market continues to, more or less, behave as anticipated. So much so, that my subscribers know not only where this correction will bottom (hint….its not yet in), but also the exact date. Plus, what to expect from the resulting rally. Click here to learn more. 

It has been a while since we have talked about how overvalued the stock market is from the fundamental perspective alone. This article should get us going “Everything seems expensive”: Why today’s valuations are worse than in 1999

  • Median P/E today is 20 vs. 16 in January 2000
  • Median price-to-book today is 2.5 vs. 2.2 in 2000
  • Median price-to-revenue today is 1.8 vs. 1.4 in 2000

Yet, most of the analysts discussing the subject matter miss the big picture. Not only are today’s valuation levels just a little  bit higher, they are exponentially higher. This has to do with the fact that a lot of the earnings growth over the last few years have been driven by money printing, QE, low interest rates, etc….

If fact, if we are to account for such factors, today’s artificial P/E ratio is likely to be well over 40. When today’s earnings disappear, as they will in the upcoming recession, you will see the E in the P/E vanish and the ratio jump much higher. That is exactly what happened in 2008 when earnings vanished and the S&P P/E jumped from 18 to over 60. This will happen again as the next bear leg develops.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 8th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is Today’s Market More Overvalued Than It Was At 2000 and 2007 Tops?  Google

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How To Generate Business Ideas

business ideasContinuation from two weeks ago…… 

Case Study:  If you are a big fan of coffee, you should be fairly familiar with Keurig line of coffee machines, K-cups and other accessories. As of this writing Keurig Green Mountain, Inc (GMCR) generates close to $4.5 Billion in sales within this product category alone. Yet, this wasn’t always the case.

Back in 1997, the company was a simple coffee roaster and a distributor with a new product line. Keurig coffee machines and K-cups.  At the time the company was struggling with a net annualized revenue base of just $60 Million.  Yet, around 1999 Keurig’s new product line started to take off. So much so that between 1999 and 2012 the company was able to grow their sales from just $60 Million a year to over $4 Billion a year. Increasing their stock market valuation by over 49,000% in the process.

If you were passionate about coffee and had a desire to start some sort of a business within the “Coffee Industry” it would have made perfect sense to follow companies such as Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), Starbucks (SBUX), Dunkin’ Brand Group, Inc (DNKN) and others. By doing so you would be able to educate yourself on a number of industry factors that you might otherwise be unfamiliar with.  From how many cups of coffee your average American drinks per day to the struggles of a Guatemalan coffee grower, from the market price of coffee to the energy costs associated with roasting it. Most importantly, you would have been able to determine what the leaders within the industry saw and how they were positioning themselves for future business opportunities.

Now, going back to our fast growing Keurig example.  After learning about the industry and the company, you could have had a number of great business ideas and their application towards your passion. For instance, here are just a few ideas off the top of my head…

  1. Become a low cost producer of K-Cups for Keurig’s machines.  A low margin and a high volume business.
  2. Develop similar machines in the early 2000’s and sell them throughout Europe, Asia or South America. Since Keurig was concentrating on the US market you would not have had any competition.
  3. You could have approached Keurig directly and have asked to become a distributor of their machines to commercial outlets such as gas stations, convenient stores, coffee shops, etc…. And while Keurig was concentrating on selling directly to consumers and office environments, you could have cornered the market for retail outlets.
  4. You could have gone to Guatemala and developed a direct relationship with a coffee grower to process, roast, fill K-Cups and ship to the US. Cutting your costs and undercutting your competition in the process.

In fact, you could have done either one or all of the above. And while the ideas above need further refining, this simple process shows you what is possible once you begin studying and analyzing your market. Your thinking will become clearer, your ideas will become better and your execution will be on par with the big guys. Finally, while you will still make mistakes, they will not be as deadly as going into any business without first studying the industry.

Quick Note: Be careful of what you read in various trade publications or magazines. A lot of the time authors do a very poor job putting that information together.  Plus, they might not be as well versed in the topic as they should be or they might be more concerned about hyping up certain products. Instead, once you have identified a product or a service, go to the root of the matter. The public companies themselves. Read and study their annual and quarterly reports. Look at the actual sales numbers and see what is selling very well and what is not. Which product lines are growing and which product lines are dying.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…...(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

Z31

How To Generate Business Ideas  Google

Posted on

China’s Role In The Upcoming War

Continuation from two weeks ago…..When it comes to China the situation is quite interesting. The Pentagon does not see China as a major nuclear force or a threat.  For instance, while the US has in excess of 2,000 warheads capable of hitting China on short notice, China deploys an estimated 20 ICMBs capable of targeting US cities.  In fact, if a military conflict between the US and China was to develop, the US plan of action calls for an immediate tactical nuclear strike against China’s nuclear forces, rendering them obsolete.

“In the first hypothetical nuclear attack scenario, U.S ballistic missile submarines stationed in the Pacific Ocean will fire Trident II D5 submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) at Chinese DF-DA missile silos. As discussed above the U.S. Trident force has evolved to become the main element in the US nuclear war plans against China.  U.S. long-range bombers based in the Pacific region or flown from the United States would require a relatively long time to reach their targets and would have to penetrate China’s airspace. The US ICBM force, based in silos in the upper Midwest, would have to over-fly Russia and risk triggering the remnants of the Soviet early-warning system, or worse. Since the end of the Cold War, US nuclear forces have been shifted to the Pacific in the form of additional Trident SSBN’s based at the Submarine Base at Bangor, Washington. For these reasons, we developed a scenario involving a Trident strike against the DF-5A, the sole Chinese nuclear weapon system capable of hitting the continental United States (CONUS) and China’s primary deterrent against the United States. “

As you continue to study the pentagon document above, it soon becomes evident that the top US military brass does not view China as a legitimate nuclear threat.  If anything, the Pentagon expects to neutralize China’s nuclear forces within minutes. As accurate as that view might be, they are missing one crucial point.  An eventual Chinese and Russian military alliance. Turning any strike against China, into a strike against Russia as well.

As was suggested so many times throughout this book, it is highly probable that we will see an official Russian and Chinese military alliance by the late 2020’s. To counterbalance the US/NATO and ensure the survival of both countries.  China will view Russia’s nuclear forces as a major deterrent against the US and Russia will see China’s potential 100 Million men army as a major asset against NATO.  Making this alliance a brilliant strategic military move for both countries.  In essence, in the very near future a war against China would lead to the same outcome as a war against Russia.  A mutually assured annihilation.

In summary, it is next to impossible to predict which exact event will set us on the path to the Nuclear World War 3. It might be as simple as escalating economic sanctions or a short firefight between a Chinese and an American soldier.  If anything, the history has thought us that we have already come, a number of times, within an inch of initiating a full out nuclear war.  Whatever that trigger point might be in the future, one thing in certain. One way or another, the war will be triggered in our proposed time window.

To Be Continued Tomorrow …...(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Site?)

z32

China’s Role In The Upcoming War Google

Posted on

When You Should Trade In & Out Of Your Potential Tenbagger

Continuation from Friday…….One of the first things we have to realize in our attempt to anticipate and to time such large moves in the underlying stocks is the fact that the fundamental analysis will not be very useful.  We cannot rely on such an analysis due to a simple fact that the stock market or individual stock movements lead the fundamentals at least 95% of the time. In other words, by the time the actual numbers filter through onto financial statements or into press releases the corrections we are trying to identify are likely to be over.  Or nearly over.  The only fundamental metric that would be useful in our case is the general overvaluation of an underlying security.

For instance, if company’s stock price had appreciated so much over a relatively short period of time that it now sells above any reasonable valuation level, even if the future is otherwise bright, it is highly probable that the underlying stock price might correct fairly soon. Once we understand such fundamental shortcomings, it leaves us no choice but to concentrate on the technical and mathematical/timing side of the equation.

Our first 60% drop in Keurig’s stock price had occurred between 2001 and 2002. To be exact, the company’s stock price topped out in July of 2001 at around $2.90 a share and then proceeded to collapse into October of 2002 bottom of $1.00 a share. A 65% decline.  GMCR4

Once we look at the chart a number of things become immediately apparent.

  1. From the fundamental perspective alone , by the time 2001 top had arrived the company’s stock price had already zoomed up 1,100% from our 1999 proposed $0.25 entry point. Going parabolic on a number of occasions. In other words, while Keurig coffee systems were starting to get traction, there was no way for the fundamentals to keep up with a rise in the stock price. The stock was overpriced and overextended.
  2. An investor applying mathematical and timing work to the overall market would be aware that the overall stock market is going through its initial bear leg and that this bear leg was not scheduled to bottom out until October of 2002. Rendering 2001-2002 period as a high risk one.

Given the setup above, any investor in the GMCR stock should have shifted in a highly defensive mode in 2001 by watching the technical side of the stock extremely closely for any sign of a technical breakdown.  As a technical breakdown at this juncture would have likely yielded a substantial decline in the company’s stock price.

That is exactly what happened in August of 2001 when Keurig’s stock broke below its lower low at around $2.50 and continued to head lower.  At that point, any investor who was watching the stock should have A. Sold his holding and B. Gone short.  The overall probability of a significant stock decline at that juncture was too great not to do so. Particularly when the technical analysis was confirming the move.

To Be Continued Tomorrow……

Z30

When You Should Trade In & Out Of Your Potential Tenbagger Google

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Is This The Buying Opportunity Of A Lifetime

daily chart August 8 2014

8/8/2014 – A strong up day with the Dow Jones up 185 points (+1.13%) and the Nasdaq up 36 points (+0.83%). 

As you very well know, psychological make up is incredibly important when it comes to making money in the market. If you would be interested in learning what the prevailing view on the Wall Street is today, watch the video below.

While Mr.Smith makes a number of ridiculous statements, I will address only two. At appears that he believes that the economy drives the stock market. The reality is quite different. It is the stock market that drives the economy. And you don’t have to go further than 2007-2009 to see this principal at work. The economy was booming as the stock market topped out on October 11th, 2007 and then proceeded to collapse. Even Bernanke was talking about how hot the economy was until the second quarter of 2008. And while the economic numbers continued to collapse well into 2010, the stock market was surging higher since the March of 2009. So, who is leading whom Mr. Smith?

Second, bull markets do not die of old age. Sure, that would be great if we were in a bull market. This is the mistake that 99.99% of all investors are unaware of. We are not in a bull market. We are still in a secular bear market that started in 2000 and that will end in 2017. The 2007-2009 correction was not a bottom. Rather, it was a mid cycle correction within a secular bear market. Same as 1972-1974, 1941-1942 and 1907-1908 corrections. In other words, another big decline is still in front of us.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 8th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is This The Buying Opportunity Of A Lifetime  Google