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Monkeys See Monkeys Do. Retail Investors About To Lose Everything. Again.

retail investors investwithalex2

A strong up day with the Dow Jones up 111 points (+0.66%) and the Nasdaq up 25 points (+0.56%).

The Dow opened up a large 100 point down gap in the morning. Suggesting an eventual short-term correction. On a positive note, the stock market continues to perform as per our exact internal forecasts.   In terms of the overall market…..

  • Massive Stock Market Overvaluation…….Check
  • Compressing Yield Curve….Check
  • VIX At Or Near All Time Low…...Check
  • Dow 20K, 25K and 30K Predictions…….Check 
  • And Now…..Massive Retail Buying…..Check 

If it wasn’t so sad, I would laugh. As the chart above indicates retail investors are falling all over each other, buying stocks at the top of the market and hoping for the best. Just as they did in 1929, in 1937, in 1966, in 1987, in 2000 and in 2007. Right into what will be a massive collapse. I guess some people will never learn.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 14th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Monkeys See Monkeys Do. Retail Investors About To Lose Everything….Again.  Google

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How To Generate Billion Dollar Business Ideas

Billion Dollar Ideas

Back in 1996, on what I can only hope was a cold night; Larry Page woke up with a brilliant idea in his mind.  That idea was to download the entire web onto a single PC or a server. He spent the rest of the night scribbling out the details, running calculations and convincing himself that this crazy idea just might work.  A few years later this idea morphed into Google and the rest, as they say, is history. Today, just 18 short years later, Larry Page’s net worth is over $30 Billion.

The story above clearly demonstrates the power of great business ideas. And while the chances of you replicating Larry’s success are slim to none, understand something very important. Getting an idea that is 1/1000th as good as Google’s would make you rich beyond your wildest dreams.  The best part about the story above is that very few business ideas are born out of dreams.  Luckily for us, most great business ideas are developed through practice, experience, effort and hard work. That is what this book is all about.

However, before we go any further, allow me to ask you something very important. What would you do if you won a lottery today?  Let’s say you hit one of those Mega Jackpots worth $500 Million. Only one winning ticket was sold and it is all yours. After all the taxes you end up netting about $250 Million. You are beyond excited and with that kind of money only one thing is clear, you don’t have to work another day in your life.  The life of your dreams is finally at hand.

The question is, what does the life of your dreams entail? Certainly you would want to spend some of that money on toys and excess. You would probably buy a few mansions, a few sports cars, give some money away, buy a business, invest in the stock market, buy art and go on an expensive trip around the world.

Let’s say that even with this initial spending spree you were only able to spend about $50 Million. Quite an accomplishment, but with over $200 Million still sitting in your bank account and earning interest, the question remains. What else would you do?

Stop, put this book down for two minutes and really think about it.  This is incredibly important. The true answer to this question is where your next million or a billion dollar idea will come from.  Remember, you are already rich beyond your wildest dreams. Would you use the rest of that money to….

  • Completely free up your time to do whatever it is that you want to do?
  • Travel around the world in style?
  • Improve the way you look, your health and/or your lifestyle?
  • Spend more time with your friends and family?
  • Disappear into a quiet corner to enjoy the life of comfort, happiness and joy?
  • Give and to help others who are less fortunate?
  • Grow as a human being and use it to become more educated?

What would you do?

To be continued tomorrow…..(Why Are You Seeing This On  A Financial Website?)

Z31

How To Generate Billion Dollar Business Ideas  Google

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How You Could Have Made A Fortune Trading Apple, Inc (AAPL)

apple products

Continuation from Friday…. 

TIMING & MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS:

If we study Apple’s stock price movement since 1997 or after Steve Jobs took the reins back, it appears as if Apple’s stock price has synchronized with the overall movements of the stock market. Outside of a few notable exceptions, Apple’s stock price tends to ebb and flow with the stock market as a whole.  Given Apple’s $580 Billion market cap, that makes perfect sense.

Yet, this yields an important clue. If Apple’s stock moves or oscillates with the market, it is best to take position at market bottoms, get out (and even go short) at market tops and then re-establish position at subsequent market bottoms.  And while most people would assume that it would be impossible to time the market to such an extent, I have proven that not to be the case in my previous book Timed Value.

In that book I spend a considerable amount of time describing two important cycles that consistently show up in the stock market. The 17-18 year cycle that represents repeating secular bull/bear market patterns and the 5 year cycle that tends to represent one completed bull/bear cycle within the stock market.

For instance, the stock market had started its bull market in 1982 and had completed in 2000. This move was represented by a 18 year secular bull cycle. As of this writing, the market is in the process of completing its 17 year secular bear market cycle. Further, there were a number of clearly defined 5 year cycles during this time. Most notably, 1982-1987, 1994-2000, 2002-2007 and 2009-2014.

An analyst or an investor familiar with these cycles would understand that it is best to hold Apple’s stock during the bull phases, only to get out or even go short when the bear phase initiates. For example, an investor in Apple would get out at the top in 2000, go short to ride the stock from $20 a share to $2 a share, only to re-establish position at the bottom in 2003. In fact, April to June of 2003 represented a perfect entry point in Apple’s stock.

The stock was selling between $1.80-$2.70 at the time.  The Dow set a clearly defined bottom in March of 2003 to continue its 5 year bull market cycle. An analyst working with Apple would know that Apple’s stock is likely to follow the overall market. Forcing an analyst to watch for any signs of a breakout.  Such a breakout occurred in April-May of 2003 when Apple’s stock broke out of its 1 year trading range and surged higher.  Giving us a technical confirmation that the bottom is likely in and that Apple’s stock is ready to follow the overall market higher.

The result?  

Apple’s stock price appreciated 1,300% (13 bagger) between 2003 bottom and 2007 top.  That was followed by a 60% collapse in its share price during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Followed by another 700% gain in the subsequent 2009-2014 bull market.

GETTING IN AND OUT OF THE STOCK

As you very well know, taking a trading/investment position in a Tenbagger at the appropriate time is only half the battle.  Staying put, increasing your position and not being forced out to sell at the wrong time is the other side of the coin. After all, it wouldn’t be a good idea to take a 100% profit, only to see your stock go up another 20,000% over the next decade. As human beings we are wired to buy and sell at exactly the wrong time. Hence the inability to outperform the market.  When it comes to Tenbaggers we must have a clearly defined set of trading rules that will help us mitigate the risk of being wrong (Please see the Tenbagger Trading Rules & Maximizing Returns chapter).

To be continued tomorrow…..

z32

How You Could Have Made A Fortune Trading Apple, Inc (AAPL) Google

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Scary. Shocking Time Formula Shows You Exactly When The Nuclear World War 3 Will Start

nato vs russia

Continuation from Friday….

THE WHEN?  

On the 28th of June  1914, Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand visited the Bosnian capital Sarajevo where he was promptly assassinated. Ushering in the start of the World War 1.  And while the world was at peace on the morning of June 28th, it was engulfed in the Great War that would last over four years and claim close to 40 Million lives by June 29th (casualties are counted as KIA, MIA or WIA). This is not atypical. If you are to study world history you would soon realize that most wars came out of the blue in a traditional sense. Yet, all of them have arrived on time in a cyclical sense.

Every significant* American war has been fought exactly 84 years apart. Based on my work this is not a coincidence. Since the US and NATO will be the primary players in the nuclear world war 3, we must study this cycle in great detail.  Let’s take a closer look.

(*Significant can mean many things. In this case, it’s the % of the US casualties based on the total population at the time. In other words, we are looking for massive American wars that have inflicted a high casualty rate as per percentage of the total US population).

Revolutionary War: Started in 1776.  Total American Casualties (killed and wounded) 50,000. Representing 1.25% of the total population. The total US Population at the time…. 4 Million (including 700K slaves).

EXACTLY 84 YEARS LATER—————-

Civil War: Started in 1860. Total American Casualties (killed and wounded) 1.1 Million or 3.2% of the total population.  The total US Population at the time…31 Million (12.7% are slaves).

EXACTLY 84 YEARS LATER————————

World War II: For the US the war technically started on December 7th, 1941 with the attack on Pearl Harbor, but the US suffered the highest % of casualties in 1944. Exactly 84 years from the previous cycle.  Total American Casualties (killed and wounded) 1.05 Million or 0.7% of the total population. The total US Population at the time …. 132 Million.

EXACTLY 84 YEARS LATER (USA/NATO Vs. Russia/China)——————-

World War III. 2029-2032. Nuclear War. The war will be fought between the USA/NATO and Russia/China Coalition. Massive casualties. Most major cities or population centers with +1 Million people throughout the world will be nuked. Particularly those in Russia, Asia, Europe and the US. Most other coalition members, from either side, will be struck by default.

***Please note, I am very well aware that there were many wars in between the wars described above. World War I, Vietnam War, Korean War, Iraq/Afghanistan, etc… They do not count because they were not major wars for the USA. Even though tens of thousands of people have died, as per % of population such losses were small. For example, the total number of casualties in Vietnam (killed and wounded) were 200,000 or 0.01% of the US Population at the time. Now, compare that to massive losses as per the % of population in the wars described above. Once again, the 84 year cycle above applies only to the major wars associated with the US. Not Europe. (Why Are You Seeing This On A Financial Website?).

To Be Continued Tomorrow….. 

Z30

Scary. Shocking Time Formula Show You Exactly When Nuclear World War 3 Will Start Google

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Is The Dow Heading Towards A 1929 Crash? The Answer Will Shock You.

daily chart AOctober 2 2014

10/2/2014 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 4 points (-0.02%) and the Nasdaq up 8 points (+0.18%). 

Over the last couple of months a lot of hoopla has been made about comparing 1982-1987 bull market (including the 1987 crash) to today’s stock market environment. Below is one of such charts for your consideration.

1987 crash

One of the primary things that people miss about these comparisons is the time frame associated with such moves. For instance, the bull market between August 1982 bottom and August 1987 top lasted exactly 5 years. The bull market between March 6th, 2009 and today has been in existence for 5 years and 4 months. Making the comparison between 1987 top and 2014 top obsolete.

Great news…..right? Not really.

Today’s market matches another pattern and this pattern makes 1987 crash look like child’s play. Over the last 224 years (since the market first started trading in 1790) the market exhibited only ONE 5-Year uninterrupted bull market cycle that extended for 5 years and 4 months. The longest bull market cycle ever (when counted as a separate unit). That ONE pattern led right into the 1929 stock market crash.

To be more specific, the Dow set a secondary bottom in early May of 1924 and then went on a rampage bull market that terminated on September 3rd, 1929 (exact top). Again, exactly 5 years and 4 months later. Thereafter, the Dow distributed for 6 weeks before initiating its crash sequence on October 24, 1929. By November 13th, 1929 the Dow was down 49%. A devastating collapse.

Now, I know what you are thinking. “People were kind of dumb back then. The market was clearly in a speculative bubble and even a monkey with half a brain could have seen the 1929 crash coming from a mile away”.  WRONG. Human nature never changes. Case and point, I present to you probably the smartest and the wealthiest businessman who ever lived, Mr. John D. Rockeffeller (his net worth was over $200 Billion in today’s money).

October  30, 1929: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has one of its best days ever, rocketing up 29 points, or 12.3%, to 258 as John D. Rockefeller, Sr. announces: “There is nothing in the business situation to warrant the destruction of values that has taken place on the exchanges during the past week. My son and I have for some days been purchasing sound common stocks.” The Dow goes on to lose 84.1% more of its value before bottoming out on July 8, 1932.

I think his quote speaks for itself.  Just as in 1929, 99.99% of people today are not aware of where we are. Back to 2014. I have already beaten the fundamental/economic/market horse and today’s stock market overvaluation/speculation levels to death. Both, in my daily blog and in my weekly updates. If you need more information, please revisit my comprehensive report The Bear Market of 2014-2017 Is Starting. Why, How & When

With that said, my precise mathematical and timing analysis works on a completely different level. Instead of anticipating what will happen based on fundamental analysis or economic data, my work tells you exactly what will happen and most importantly, WHEN. Making technical, fundamental and economic analysis obsolete.

So, will we have a 1929 style crash over the next few months?  Unfortunately, such information is only available to my subscribers. Including the exact date of the 2014 market top and what will happen thereafter.

Think about it this way.  You really have two options.

  • You Decide To Ignore This Warning:  If the 1929 type of a crash does occur, you will lose 50% of your net worth in a matter of days.  By that point, it will be too late.  It won’t be too late to jump out of the window, but it will be too late to do anything about it.  And for what, to save $49 a month?
  • If You Are To Check Out My Member Section:  If the 1929 type of a crash does occur you will be able to

1. Avoid the crash, preserve your capital and buy stocks at giveaway prices.  
2. Make a fortune on the short side (if you trade on the short side). 

So, at the risk of sounding too salesy, I am beating this drum as hard as I can in order to warn as many people as I can. This newsletter service is not my primary source of income (not even close) and it won’t make one bit of a difference to me if you sign up.  Again, I am just trying to warn as many people as I can. So, what are you waiting for? Reserve your spot (limited space and we only have a few spots left for August) for your FREE 14-day trial today and check out our forecast. I cannot stress how incredibly important this update is. Trust me; the grandchildren of your grandchildren will thank me.

Important Announcement: It is highly probable that I will double the price of my service over the next 90-120 days while getting rid of the monthly subscription option. While this change does not impact existing subscribers (they are locked in for life), all new subscribers will have to pay at least $599/year. This change will happen fairly soon. In other words, if you have ever considered a subscription, the time to get in is NOW. 

MATHEMATICAL & TIMING ANALYSIS:  

(*** Please Note: The information within this section is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more and to reserve your spot.Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial).

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is The Dow Heading Towards A 1929 Crash? The Answer Will Shock You.  Google

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How You Could Have Made Millions With Apple.

AAPL2Continuation from yesterday…..For our purposes, we must now ascertain if it would have been possible to predict this meteoric rise and take position in the stock around 2002-2003 from the fundamental perspective alone.

The short answer is NO.

While an analyst working with Apple back in 2002 could have predicted the popularity of iPods and the success of iTunes (in theory), it would have been impossible to anticipate future blockbusters.  No technology futurist at the time could have predicted the iPhone, the Apps Store or the iPad. It is not even clear if such products existed in Steve Jobs’s mind as far back as 2002-2003. And even if someone was able to predict the appearance of such products, it would have been impossible to predict if the market would have accepted them or not. The technology field is littered with dead products that were way ahead of their time.

The best any fundamental investor could do in the 2002-2003 time frame is as follows…

  1. Analyze Apple’s rapidly growing iPod business and determine that iPod’s sales cycle and its popularity is just starting.  That it would be a massive hit for Apple over the next few years. It would be an educated guess, but it would be better than nothing.
  2. Assume that Steve Jobs and Apple will continue to introduce revolutionary products (similar to iPod) over the next few years.  That could have been ascertained from studying Steve Jobs and understanding his drive for innovation. Still, it would have been a hit or a miss proposition. Just because Steve Jobs introduces a new product doesn’t mean it will be a huge success. He did have a number of large failures throughout his career.

Which bring us to the decision making time based on the fundamental analysis alone. Apple was not a clear cut case. The economy was in the dumps, the technology sector was devastated by the burst of the tech bubble and while Apple did have a hit product, it was not necessarily evident.  Plus, with the iPhone introduction being 5 years away, the best any investor could do at the time was to add Apple’s stock to his or her well diversified portfolio.  In hopes that the tech sector will recover and that Apple’s iPod business will continue to drive the company forward.  Yet, no one could have predicted that Apple would go up 3,700% over the next decade based on the fundamental factors alone.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Since the fundamental analysis did not necessarily yield a strong buy signal for Apple in our 2002-2003 time frame, we must now concentrate on the technical side of the equation to see if we would have had better luck there.

As you can see from the chart above, Apple’s stock price collapsed in conjunction with the Nasdaq in the fiscal 2000. Going from $20 a share to $2 a share in a matter of nine months.  Thereafter, the stock price remained, more or less, within a tight $1.80 to $3.60 trading range for two and a half years.  That is until the April of 2003.

What happened in April? Apple’s stock price bottomed at around $1.85 a share and then started its massive multiyear rally. What else happened around the same time? The Dow set a clearly defined secondary bottom in its bear market of 2000-2003 and started its 5-year bull market of 2002-2007. Essentially, Apple’s stock price bottomed at exactly the same time as the stock market. This transfers the burden of the rest of our technical analysis to our timing and mathematical work.

To Be Continued On Monday…..

z32

How You Could Have Made Millions With Apple.  Google

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Shocking: Scary Mathematical Formula Predicts The Start Of Nuclear World War 3

confused guy

Continuation from yesterday…..Fortunately or unfortunately, I was able to figure out the exact time frame associated with the World War 3. By accident I might add. This chapter of the book will explore the WHEN portion of the equation. We will study the exact War Cycle associated with all of the major wars throughout the American history in order to ascertain exactly when the Nuclear World War 3 will start.  

I first became aware of the subject matter at hand during my research and analysis of future stock market cycles. As described in the previous chapter. After years of work with such cycles and getting a fairly good understanding of how the stock market works (giving me the ability to predict the market with incredible accuracy), I came across something that puzzled me. When I got into the early 2030′s something crazy happened.

After a strong multi-year run up due to inflation (not fundamentals), the stock market proceeded to collapse to the tune of 90-95% within a 2-4 week period of time. At first, I thought that I might have gotten some of my calculations wrong, but after some verification my original work was indeed confirmed. That brought out an incredibly important question.

What can collapse the Dow Jones 90-95% within a four week period of time?

I knew that it had to be something big. Such drops are unprecedented in the history of the stock market. As a matter of fact, it had never happened before. Even the 1929-1932 collapse of 90% took over 3 years to play out. So, what in the world could cause such a massive meltdown?

Sure, a natural catastrophe, an earthquake, a giant tidal wave, maybe a meteor strike, etc….are all a possibility. However, we are not talking about a specific region. We are talking about the entire stock market which represents every corner of Americana as a whole.  Some sort of a war is always a possibility, but for the market to collapse to such an extent and so rapidly, it would have to be a nuclear war.

Is that even possible in today’s world?

I had to find an answer and so began my research into the subject matter. Using the same cyclical analysis I use for my stock market work, it wasn’t long before I found the answer I was seeking. What I found shocked me to the core. The nuclear war is indeed coming. It will be fought between 2029-2032 and it will literally destroy the world and impact every human being on the face of the Earth, one way or another.  What I find fascinating is that today’s macroeconomic and geopolitical developments are already lining up for what is to come.

To Be Continued On Monday (Why Do You See This On A Financial Website?)

Z30

Google

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Daily Stock Market Update. July 10th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart July 10 2014

A down day with the Dow Jones down 70 points (-0.42%) and the Nasdaq down 23 points (-0.52%).

The stock market continues to perform exactly as per our internal forecasts. The market opened with a huge 150 point down gap, only to recover most of the drop by the end of the day. Confusing the Bejusus out of both the bulls and the bears in the process. Not us. 

In the meantime, Marc Faber continues to hit at the market, predicting a massive and a fast moving correction. And while CNBC Talking Head Fools suggested that Marc is no longer credible, Mr. Faber does have a good point. He compared today’s market to Brazil Vs. Germany game, where most networks had to repeat and assure their audiences that the score at half time was really 5:0. Something so unimaginable that NO ONE in the world thought that it would be possible.

Marc suggests, and I tend to agree, that one day soon you will have double and triple check your stock tape. In other words, in the very near future the market will shave off 20%+ off today’s valuation levels in a matter of days. And that will be just the start. Point being, don’t find yourself cheering for a losing team.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 10th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. July 10th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google