Investment Motivation Of The Day Google
Can Corporate CAPEX Drive The US Economy Forward? No Chance In Hell.
One of the constant things you hear from the Financial Media Talking Head on TV and in print is that the CAPEX spending will come back with the vengeance and drive the US Economy forward. Despite the stock market being up over 150% in the last 5 years and the economy exhibiting various signs of strength, CAPEX remains in the dumps.
Will it turn around and be the next growth driver?
No chance in hell. Listen, there is a huge disconnect between what the stock market and the perceived economic strength is saying and what the CEO’s see on the front lines. Simply put, they don’t see the growth the stock market is projecting and they are not spending because of that. This adds credence to my point of view that the stock market has long disconnected from any sort of economic reality and is now in a bubble territory. If anything, I would expect CAPEX to keep declining as the bear market of 2014-2017 hits.
Can Corporate CAPEX Drive The US Economy Forward? No Chance In Hell. Google
Bears Are Dead Wrong & Stupid. It’s Different This Time.
At least according to a lot of market strategists, including this one Stock market bears are making a big mistake
Shiller’s data, going back to 1880, show that the historic average CAPE for the U.S. stock market has been about 16. When the market has been significantly above that, subsequent returns have typically proven to be poor — and vice versa. Today it is at 25.
I have argued this before, but here is what most people don’t understand about today’s earnings. They are abnormal…a figment of one’s imagination. Same as they were in 2007 when the S&P earnings went from a seeming normal P/E of 18 at 2007 top to 128 during the collapse in 2008.
Back then earnings simply vanished into thin air, just as they will today. Why? Because most of the corporate earnings everyone relies on today are based on a massive amount of credit within our financial system. That massive QE and low interest rate stimulus that the FED unleashed on the US economy. When it goes away (just as it did in 2007-2009) you will see corporate earnings collapse….making today’s valuation not only expensive, but insanely expensive. One thing is for sure….it’s never different.
Bears Are Dead Wrong & Stupid. It’s Different This Time. Google
Daily Stock Market Update. June 5th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
Another up day with the Dow Jones up 98 points (+0.59%) and the Nasdaq up 44 points (1.05%).
As the chart above illustrates, the stock market has ZERO fear as all of the bears have been taken out to Siberian Taiga and shot dead. In other words, this is as good as it gets for the bull market. Just as it was back in 2007.
I have long argued that the stock market has by now disconnected from any sort of reasonable fundamental valuation levels (due to massive FED stimulus) and is now in a bubble territory. Despite strong technical indicators and trends, investors must be very careful here.
Just as the reminder……. most bull markets do not last longer than five years, we remain in a secular bear market that started in 2000 and will terminate in 2017, the valuation levels are outright crazy (I can’t find any value), the FED is tightening, fear levels/indicators hitting all time lows, etc….. The bottom line is, and as stupid as it sounds, the market is climbing higher for the sake of climbing higher.
This is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning which way it will break and when, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 5th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Daily Stock Market Update. June 5th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google
Investment Grin Of The Day
Is Gold Dead Or Is It Bottoming?
According to most market pundits, Gold is dead and you should buy stocks and real estate.
Gold is hitting new multiyear lows relative to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. J.C. Parets, a technical analyst at Eagle Bay Capital, notes: “This downtrend has been very strong over the past 30 months and is hard to fight.”
Yes, Gold is in a technical downtrend, likely to test $1,200 (maybe even lower) and the time to buy it is not quite here. Yet, to look at it from such a perspective is like looking in a rear view mirror.
Here is what I believe to be the best way to look at Gold and it’s price. Forget about the fundamental factors such as supply/demand and geopolitical events. From our vantage point, Gold’s technical/structural setup is identical to the one in 2007 when Gold went from $600 to $1,800 an ounce.
With our mathematical and timing work predicting a severe bear market between 2014-2017, the FED will have no choice but to introduce further stimulus in order to try and re-inflate our markets and the economy. When that happens, I would expect Gold to be surging higher, not setting new lows. In fact, I continue to believe that Gold will be one of the better investments out there over the next 3-5 years.
All you have to do now is wait for Gold to bottom, break out above $1,420 and we should be off to the races. Be patient now. Our timing work shows that the next stage of the bull market in Gold is just around the corner as it will be surging higher by around this time next year. If you would like more precise timing please Click Here.
Why It’s Stupid To Buy Real Estate Today
Right on the ball and we couldn’t agree more. Selling or shorting (SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)) real estate right now is a much better idea.
Daily Stock Market Update. June 4th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
An up day with the Dow Jones up 15 points (+0.09%) and the Nasdaq up 18 points (+0.41%).
Since the market continues to flat line, let’s take a quick look at index divergences and their meaning. While most major indices are up for the year (S&P +4.3%, Nasdaq +1.8%, Dow +0.9%), this doesn’t tell the whole story.
While the S&P and the Dow have re-confirmed their bullish trends, the Nasdaq has failed to do so. Just a matter of time? Maybe or maybe the Nasdaq is the leading indicator in this bearish setup. As I have mentioned a few days ago, the Nasdaq is likely in a process of building the right shoulder of a fairly large Head-And-Shoulders trading pattern. Making the Nasdaq the most important index to watch over the next few months. Assuming that you would like to get it right.
This is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning which way it will break and when, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 4th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Daily Stock Market Update. June 4th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google
What Happens When Blackstone Starts Dumping Real Estate At Market? Part II
Just a quick revisit.
As far as I am concerned, Blackstone has lost it’s way and should fire their entire real estate division. Why? Watch the video above. Their investment thesis in real estate is very simple. 1. The bottom is in. 2. There is a massive housing shortage. 3. Real estate prices will continue to rise. That sounds great, except for one thing, it’s a bunch of BS that can easily be discredited.
Now, remember, while these guys have been somewhat correct thus far by being one of the largest real estate buyers/investors in the nation, the market hasn’t spoken yet. All they have done is bought a huge amount of illiquid real estate that they will be unable to unload when a bear market in real estate prices resumes. As often is the case, one minute you are a financial genius and a half an hour later you are a retarded idiot (after the market moves against you).
I wrote about this before and I continue to stand by my opinion. Good luck unloading your illiquid real estate Blackstone.
In another sign that the “Dead Cat Bounce” for the Real Estate market is now over, Blackstone Group has announced that it’s real estate acquisition pace has slowed 70% from last years pace due to higher prices. In fact, this is the trend seen across the industry. Investors, hedge funds, institutions are all slowing down their real estate acquisitions to the tune of 70-90%.
“The institutional wave has passed,” Gray, who oversees almost $80 billion in property investments, said in a telephone interview. “It’s at a much lower level than it was 12 or 24 months ago.”
What happens next?
Easy. The real estate market might hover here for some time. Not too long thought. As soon the Bear Market of 2014-2017 hits and the US falls back into a severe recession, you will see housing going down once again. Once investors realize where we are in the real estate cyclical composition (dead cat bounce and not expansion) you will see the likes of Blackstone trying to get rid of their properties as fast as possible. With investors heading for the doors, mass volume of real estate should hit the market. Collapsing existing values just as fast, if not faster, than their initial ascend between 2010-2014.
Good luck selling your 43,000 rental properties Blackstone.
What Happens When Blackstone Starts Dumping Real Estate At Market? Google
