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Shocking Truth: Why San Diego Real Estate Prices Will Decline By Over 50%

San Diego Investwithalex

It’s official. My home base, San Diego, has done it. San Diego the nation’s second least affordable city for buying a home behind San Francisco. 

“The report says a person in San Diego would need to earn $98,534 a year to buy a $483,000 home, the county’s median price in the first quarter.”

Well, I have good news and I have bad news. The good news? As advertised, San Diego is a beautiful city, the weather is nice and it’s a nice place to live. The bad news? Real estate prices will decline to the tune of 50% over the next 10 years.

Let me be crystal clear. Anyone…..anyone buying a house at today’s prices will lose a ton of money. Don’t worry, I know that most people (particularly in San Diego) will disagree with me. Yet, most of these people have no idea of where we are in the composition of the overall economic cycle, its application to real estate, real estate valuation work and so on.

Very briefly, what we saw in the real estate market between 2006-2010 was just the initial decline in the secular Real Estate Bear Market(stage 1). What we have witnessed since, 2010-today (stage 2) is a “Dead Cat Bounce”. What’s next?

Stage 3….a massive decline followed by another bounce and then by a final leg down. Now, these things don’t happen overnight. They take years to play out. My timing work shows the bottom in San Diego real estate prices arriving around 2022-2024…. at the earliest.

Again with 50% or more price haircut expected, it would be VERY wise not to touch real estate in San Diego with a ten foot pole. If you need more information you can read my comprehensive report here Real Estate Collapse 2.0 Why, How & When

z32

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Cold War 2 With Russia Continues To Intensify. What Happens Next?

american needs a major enemy investwithalex

In all likelihood, Russia and Putin were caught off guard by how aggressive and hostile the Obama Administration became literally overnight. While the situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, Russia has regrouped and is starting to hit back in its own way. In short, Cold War 2 is starting to escalate. Here is why…….

Z30

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Daily Stock Market Update. May 22nd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart May 22 2014

Another up day with the Dow Jones up 10 points (0.06%) and the Nasday up 22 points (0.55%). 

The stock market continues to oscillate within a very tight trading range. Driving both bulls and bear up the wall.

Short Interest S&P Chart below (courtesy of ZeroHedge) gives us yet another perspective on today’s market. While most market practitioners believe large short interest in the market will eventually lead to a strong rally (aka short squeeze), quite the opposite is true.

As the chart below shows, instead of causing rallies, “smart” short interest established at the right time eventually breaks the market. Today’s short position on the S&P is more or less where it was at 2007 top. Suggesting that the market might be ready to break, just as it did back than.

The real question is, are the short-sellers (typically more intelligent or better researched investors) right or wrong this time? Will the market break or will we see a massive short squeeze?  Something tells me we are about to find out. 

short interest ration

Longer term, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 21st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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A Closer Look At VIX And What It Predicts

VIX

VIX, often referred to as the fear index, continues to decline to levels unseen since the 2007 or right before the collapse. While most market pundits dismiss this measure as a simple volatility gauge, it would pay big dividends to pay closer attention. Here is why.

  1. Historic Lows Indicate Trend Reversal: Historically, when VIX approaches historic lows it tends to reverse shortly thereafter, typically leading to massive sell offs synonymous with 1987, 2000, 2007, etc…. Suggesting today’s environment is very dangerous.
  2. Shows Complacency & Excessive Risk Taking: I continue to maintain that the amount of risk taking in our financial system is off the charts. Although it is hard to see due to “Asset Inflation” and “Massive Stimulus”..… it is there. Plus, with most speculators being in a comfortable and soothing state of sleep (due to lack of volatility), a sharp bear market move here might snap everyone back to reality.
  3. Combining VIX, Cycle Work, Seasonality and Fundamentals: While looking at VIX alone won’t allow you to predict anything, combining it with other measures can give you a fairly accurate picture of what is to come. With market internals deteriorating, 5-Year cycle now complete, “sell in may and go away”  and extreme levels of fundamental overvaluation/speculation, VIX suggests a violent move.

Conclusion: Considering all of the above and with VIX at $11.77, this is a clear recipe for a disaster. The only question is when. If you would be interested in learning exactly when this bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

Z31

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Scientists Convert Light To Matter. Amazing.

light to matter

Scientists in London have been successful in converting light to matter with powerful lasers. Scientists find way to turn light into matter

“What was so surprising to us was the discovery of how we can create matter directly from light using the technology that we have today in the UK. As we are theorists we are now talking to others who can use our ideas to undertake this landmark experiment,” Rose continued.

What does any of this have to do with the stock market? …… Everything. 

While most people believe the stock market is random, volatile and unpredictable, it is anything but that. Everything in our Universe (or our dimension) functions according to a certain set of fixed laws. As Albert Einstein so famously said, “God doesn’t play dice”. Meaning, the only randomness in the Universe are the things we do not yet understand.

I use a lot of physics, mathematics and other sciences in my stock market work. Once you infuse structure and proper scientific tools into the study of the stock market (or individual stocks), most randomness disappears.  Instead, you begin to see a beautiful structure within the stock market. Once that structure is understood the market can be predicted with astonishing accuracy.

Just as the scientists above were able to convert light into matter, you can convert this understanding into a life long pursuit of wisdom.  Here is a hint…..the stock market is a life entity (not some dead chart) that moves in multi-dimensional space and according to its own DNA sequence. 

z32

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Marc Faber: Markets Are Out Of Touch With Reality.

My favorite bear, Marc Faber, brings out a number of important issues in the video below. I agree with all of them as they tend to match my fundamental analysis. Here is a quick summary of what he says.

  • Too much risk in the financial system. Excessive speculation.
  • Valuation are crazy.
  • Market internals are deteriorating.
  • Many stocks are already down 10-20%. Some momentum high flyers are already down 30-50%.
  • General asset deflation is coming.

Z30

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Daily Stock Market Update. May 21st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart May 21 2014

A big up day with the Dow Jones up 158 points (0.97%) and the Nasdaq up 34 points (0.85%). 

The market continues to be stuck in a very tight trading range.

The good news? With the FOMC minutes failing to impress or add anything new, the stock market rallied on low volume while slamming VIX to a 9-month low of 11.91.

The bad news? Kind of the same. The market left a huge gap up in the morning (suggesting upcoming downside), while short squeezing the market up on low volume. Plus, with VIX pushing levels unseen since before the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the amount of risk in our financial system is immense.

It certainly feels as if something is about to break and a powerful move (either up or down) is just around the corner.  

This is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 21st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Shocking News: Why 50% Of Households Will Be Underwater On Their Mortgages By 2018

underwater-mortgage

According to Zillow 10 Million households are still underwater on their mortgages. On top of that over 10 Million households have 20% or less equity in their homes. While both numbers represent a significant improvement from their 33% peak in 2012, they don’t tell the whole story.

What’s Next? 

Most of the research/commentary associated with the numbers above assumes that the housing market will continue on it’s recovery trajectory to eventually get everyone out of this predicament. Unfortunately, I do not share in their enthusiasm.

In fact, my mathematical work continues to show that things will get much worse for the housing market. In fact, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the number of underwater mortgages as high as 50% by the end of 2018. Why?

As I have suggested before, what we are witnessing in the real estate market now is a Stage 2 – Dead Cat Bounce before Stage 3 – massive decline. Basically, the real estate market has the same internal 17-Year structure as the stock market associated with it. In other words, the real estate market is about to repeat what you saw in the stock market between 2007-2009. Put your helmet on, it’s going to be an ugly ride. The real estate market is already rolling over. 

You can learn much more about this here. Real Estate Collapse 2.0 Why, How & When

Z31