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Will Lower Bond Yields Set The US Housing Market On Fire Once Again?

houseingbubble-investwithalex

I had an interesting question from one of my subscribers last night. Quick summary:

“Won’t the lower yields in the bond market lower the overall mortgage rates and set the housing market on fire once again?” -J.V

Hell NO. Here is why.

If you haven’t noticed, the 10-Year Note has declined from around 3% at the beginning of the year to 2.35% today, going as low as 2% just a few weeks ago. This bond market action has, more or less, caught 95% of investors out there with their pants down. Not us.

As I suggested before, the reason the rates are declining is A. The bond market needs to set a secondary bottom and close the gaps at around 1.5-1.6%(It will do so over the next 2-3 years) and B. A more intelligent bond market is smelling out a severe US Recession over the next 2 years.

Long story short, here is why this WILL NOT have a net positive impact on housing. 

  1. Even though the 10-Year Note is declining,  mortgage rates are not. And even if they do, because the interest rates are essentially at ZERO, any future decline here will have very little impact on the overall housing market.
  2. The overall real estate market has already completed its “Dead Cat Bounce” and is currently in the process of a rollover into a massive stage 3 decline over the next few years. While lower interest rates might slow it down, its current overvaluation/speculation levels ensure its ultimate demise.

In conclusion, don’t expect anything short of 100 Million Rich Chinese landing in America and looking for a house to stop the upcoming real estate decline.

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As The US & The EU Continue To Poke Russia, Putin Sells His Gas To China

xi and putin As the US/EU/NATO continue on with their unprecedented campaign against Russia over an irrelevant nation 6,000 miles away from an American shore, Mr. Putin is about to sign a massive multibillion-dollar gas deal with China. Bringing two superpowers closer together and to a certain extent putting Europe on notice.

Russian Deputy Energy Minister Anatoly Yanovsky said on Monday that the deal was “98 per cent ready”. 

More importantly, both Russia and China have already discussed the notion of moving away from petrodollars as their primary means of transactionary medium. This step alone might be devastating over the long-term for the US Economy and the US Dollar. Both China and Russia are aware of the fact and that is precisely why they are pushing the envelope on the matter.

I guess our idiotic foreign policy does backfire once in a while.    

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AP Writes: China, Russia on verge of gas deal

BEIJING (AP) — China plans to sign a multibillion-dollar deal to buy Russian gas during a visit by President Vladimir Putin next week despite U.S. pressure to avoid undermining sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine crisis.

Washington has appealed to Beijing to avoid making business deals with Russia, though American officials acknowledge the pressing energy needs of China, the world’s second-largest economy.

Negotiations that began more than a decade ago had stalled over price. But analysts say Moscow, isolated over its role in Ukraine, faces pressure to make concessions in exchange for an economic and political boost.

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“We are still exchanging views with Moscow and we will try our best to ensure that this contract can be signed and witnessed by the two presidents during President Putin’s visit to China,” a deputy Chinese foreign minister, Cheng Guoping, told reporters on Thursday.

Putin’s visit to China is also likely to highlight the diverging fortunes of the two powers. China is on track to overtake the U.S. as the world’s biggest economy in the next decade and is increasingly assertive in political relations with its neighbors. Russia’s economy is reeling from its dispute with the West over Ukraine’s tilt toward the European Union, a shift that inflamed Moscow’s insecurities about declining influence.

Putin is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping during a two-day conference on Asian security that starts Tuesday in Shanghai. Cheng noted they reached a preliminary agreement on gas sales when Xi attended the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia.

Companies from the two sides “have already reached an agreement on the majority of the contents of their cooperation,” said Cheng. “The main difference between them still lingers on the price of natural gas.”

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Beijing has to weigh the economic benefits against possible strained ties with Washington and the European Union, but analysts say Chinese leaders are leaning toward a deal. China faces chronic gas shortages and talks on the proposed 30-year contract between Russia’s government-controlled Gazprom and state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. began long before the Ukraine crisis. Chinese leaders are also eager to get Russian gas to help curb pollution by reducing reliance on coal.

A tentative agreement signed in March 2013 calls for Gazprom to deliver 38 billion cubic meters of gas per year beginning in 2018, with an option to increase that to 60 billion cubic meters. Plans call for building a pipeline to link China’s northeast to a line that carries gas from western Siberia to the Pacific port of Vladivostok.

“It’s not something that can be switched off because the U.S. is upset about a more recent development,” said analyst Rachel Calvert of consultancy IHS.

Analysts Leslie Palti-Guzman and Emily Stromquist of Eurasia Group put the likelihood of a gas deal finally being concluded this month at 80 percent.

The deal would be an “important strategic gain” at a time when the Ukraine crisis is fraying Russia’s political and economic tie with the West, they said in a report.

During a visit last week to Beijing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Chinese leaders that Washington doesn’t want to see anyone undermine sanctions by making trade or investment deals with Russia.

“We discussed, as we do with many nations, the impact our sanctions are having and the importance that they are not offset by others coming in,” Lew said in a statement sent to reporters by his office.

China rejects the sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union on Russia during the Ukraine crisis.

“The U.S. side overemphasizes the use of sanctions,” a deputy Chinese finance minister, Zhu Guangyao, said after Lew’s meetings.

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Washington and the EU have imposed asset freezes and visa bans on 61 people and several companies linked to Putin’s inner circle in connection with the unrest in Ukraine.

The sanctions add to economic problems for Russia, which faces slowing growth and capital flight as companies and individuals pull money out of the country.

The Russian finance ministry said $51 billion flowed out of the country in the first quarter of the year. The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, last week cited estimates that as much as 160 billion euros ($220 billion) had left the country since the Ukraine crisis began. Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has cut its rating on Russian government debt to one notch above junk status.

Russia may make a “big concession” on the price it charges China, said Li Xin, a foreign affairs specialist at the Shanghai Institute of Foreign Studies. He said Moscow has been looking east for new customers while the sanctions encourage Europe to reduce reliance on Russian gas.

“Energy cooperation is a long-term strategy for both China and Russia,” he said, “and it’s not related at all to the Ukraine situation.”

Daily Stock Market Update. May 15th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart May 15 2014

Another substantial down day with the Dow Jones down 167 points (-1.01%) and the Nasdaq down 31 points (-0.76%). 

While most headlines proclaimed an all time high for the Dow just a few days ago, YTD the Dow is already down 130 points (-0.80%). And it only took two days.

Further, while bullish sentiment remains at somewhat extreme levels, market fundamentals and internals continue to deteriorate. Suggesting that quite a powerful move might be just around the corner.

As I suggested in yesterday’s update, the direction of such a move is critical. It will either break the market and give us an early warning sign that something is seriously wrong within the US Economy -OR- it will surge higher to prove most market pundits right.

Which way will the cookie crumble? 

Well, my mathematical and timing work clearly shows that the bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 15th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Will Gold Break Below $1,000 As Jim Rogers Suggests?

gold chart investwithalexTypically I would agree with Jim, but not here. While gold can certainly break down to that level, it has very little time left to do it in.

As I have mention before, my mathematical and timing work shows a clearly defined bear market and a severe recession within the US Economy between 2014-2017. When we look at gold from that vantage point we can anticipate the following setup for the metal this time next year (May 2015)….

  • The stock market is down 15-20%.
  • The US Economy is in an official recession.
  • The 10-Year Note is below 2%.
  • The FED is looking to stimulate or re-inflate markets in any way possible. All tightening talk is nothing but a distant memory.

With gold showing signs of building a base/bottoming and with the fundamental setup being identical to the one in 2007 (when gold went from $600 to $1,800) the probability is very high that Gold is getting ready to rally here.

Point being, for gold to decline to $1,000, it must do so immediately or over the next 3-4 months (maximum). That is why I continue to believe that the probability of gold breaking above $1,420 and surging higher thereafter is much higher at this juncture.

Gold bars

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Daily Ticker: Gold is a buy under $1,000 an ounce; here’s why it could get there: Jim Rogers

Gold is traditionally an investment of choice when inflation is rising or global tensions are growing. But this year, despite the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine, gold prices haven’t moved much, and inflation in much of the developed world is muted.

“I’m not buying gold at the moment,” international investor Jim Rogers tells The Daily Ticker. “But if the opportunity comes along — and it will in the next year or two — I will buy more.”

When The Daily Ticker’s anchor Lauren Lyster asked Rogers in the video above what such an opportunity might look like, Rogers said that a 50% decline in gold prices, to under $1,000 an ounce would justify buying the precious metal. (That’s a 50% decline from its record high just under $2,000 an ounce in August 2011.) But Rogers also says, “if America goes to war with Iran,” he’d be “begging to buy at $1,600 an ounce.”

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As of mid-day Wednesday gold futures were trading at $1,300 an ounce, or about 8% higher than the 2013 year-end close of $1,202. Gold prices fell a whopping 28% in 2013, but Rogers says a 50% correction every three or four or five years is more normal for an asset class, and therefore, a reason prices could fall from here.

As for why gold prices haven’t taken off this year, Rogers says demand from China, the number one consumer of gold, is declining because the market there is “saturated.” He says investors, meanwhile, would rather put their money into stocks. The Dow (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed at record highs Tuesday but have since retreated, while the 10-year Treasury note price has advanced, as its yield slipped to 2.55%.

Will Gold Break Below $1,000 As Jim Rogers Suggests?

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Are You Horny For A House? Another Scary Look At The California Real Estate Market

Another wonderful look at the California real estate market from our friends at Doctorhousingbubble.com. I continue to maintain that you have got to be a special kind of stupid to buy anything in California today. Well, that is unless you think that buying a 1,036 square feet shit box built in 1953 for $689,000 is a sound investment/financial decision.

Who is buying?

Chinese investors, hedge funds, flippers and straight up idiots horny for real estate, hardwood floors and granite counterparts. Yet, all of them are about to find out what Japanese investors found out in the late 1980’s after buying up half of Hawaii and California….real estate doesn’t always go up. In fact, according to my mathematical and timing work the real estate market is about to embark on the most vicious “Stage 3 Bear Market Leg” of its decline (similar to the one experienced in our equities market between 2007-2009).

You can learn more about what is to come in my comprehensive report: Real Estate Collapse 2.0 Why, How & When     

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homeownership nationCalifornia is no place for the young home buyer: Homeownership rate for young buyers takes biggest hit in California. Domestic migration out, international migration in.

California is slowly splitting up into two clear distinct market segments. A smaller segment of wealthy individuals with access to capital and debt and another larger segment of financially struggling households. People might think that the trend of Californians moving out of the state is fairly new but this trend has been going on for over a decade. The state gaining the most from this domestic out migration is Texas. Surveys looking at reasons for people moving out include lower housing costs and a lower cost of living. Yet the population is increasing. The big reason for the increase is international migration. As we have recently noted there is a heavy focus in prime California markets for foreign investors, largely from China. Young families have little chance of competing in many California markets. Because of this it is no surprise that you have 2,300,000+ adults living at home with their parents. This group is not the future home buyer, not at these prices. Most are at home because they have lower paying jobs, no jobs, or heavy levels of student debt. Many are unable to even rent, let alone buy a home. So when we look at Census data, it is no surprise that the homeownership rate for young Californians has taken the biggest hit since the housing market peaked in 2007. Is California a place for the young home buyer?

Falling homeownership rate for young in California and nation

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The lower homeownership rate for young Americans is not only an issue hitting California. This trend is occurring all over the country. One big reason for this is student loan debt. The Federal Reserve just came out with their household debt figures this week and highlighted that total student debt is now up to $1.1 trillion. This is now the second biggest household debt sector behind mortgage debt. That is simply one aspect of the issue here. As we noted in a previous post, many younger potential buyers are also confronting a world of lower wages. Those 2+ million adults living at home in California are largely at home because of financial hardship. It is naïve to think that these younger adults are living at home because they want to reconnect with family. To the contrary, if we brought back no-doc no-income loans the market would spiral out of control once again as house horny buyers dive into incredible levels of debt. Since you have to document income in today’s market, the first-time buyer market has dried up in the California drought but large money investors from Wall Street and abroad have taken up the slack.

The homeownership rate for young Americans has taken a big hit over the last generation:

Source: Census data

I think the above chart is very telling. What it shows is that for the last generation, any gains in homeownership for younger Americans has been completely wiped out. The peak that was reached in the 2005-07 housing market was largely due to toxic mortgages and a predatory financial system. The end result of course is a graveyard of 7,000,000+ foreclosures (many purchased after the crash for rock bottom prices by large Wall Street investors with easy debt access from member Fed banks).

Student debt is merely one issue. If these young buyers had student debt but also high paying jobs, buying a home would be no issue. In California we see this trend as well:

homeownershiprates

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Source: First Tuesday

The homeownership rate took a big hit across all age groups but the brunt of this was felt by those in the 25 to 54 year old range. There was little escape here even for baby boomers. What is interesting is that the homeownership rate went up for those 25 and younger. This is largely due to big down payment gifts from parents and wealthy young buyers (this is also a very small percentage of all homeowners in the state by the way). The largest group of homeowners is from the baby boomer and older group.

California is getting older

These dynamics are shifting how California will look. For example, California is quickly becoming an older state:

population-65

At the same time, domestic Californians are heading for the exits:

california migration

If it wasn’t for international migration, California’s population would actually be decreasing for well over a decade. In some markets a large portion of the recent price increases have come from international buyers. Young buyers are fully out competed here in combination with older households that may also have equity. Older home owners might live in a high priced home, but you have to sell or tap that equity out to generate income.

For example, let us take a look at a newer listing in Culver City:

culver city new listing

11820 Juniette St, Culver City

Beds: 3

Baths: 1

Square feet: 1,036

I’ll first let the ad speak for itself:

“Location, Location, Location! This extraordinary area is called Del Rey and is next door to Culver City and The Playa Vista Development. Centrally located near Marina 90 FWY & 405 FWY. Just a short 12 minute bike ride to Playa Del Rey Beach & 4 minutes to Marina Del Rey Shopping Center.”

“This neighborhood also has a community garden to enjoy. Property needs a little TLC but has strong and solid bones.”

Solid calcium enriched bones baby!  This home can also squat 600lbs on any given weekend.  I always enjoy looking at the Google maps version of the street since it gives you a better feel of the area:Are You Horny For A House? Another Scary Look At The California Real Estate Market

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culver city home

What is the current price tag for this home? $689,000. This place was built in 1953, you know, when Dwight D. Eisenhower was President. A 3 bedroom and 1 bath home at 1,036 square feet is a starter home. Now tell me, how many young buyers do you think have enough to support a $689,000 home? No surprise that adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) usage hit a six-year high in the latest sales report for SoCal.

California is now dominated by investors, foreign buyers, and those leveraging every penny to buy to chase their house horny dreams of granite countertops topped off with a little hardwood floors. For the2.3 million adults living at home, I’m sure renting a home seems like a dream at this point.

Will The Bear Market Start With A Bang Or A Whimper? The Answer Will Shock You

bear market thinking investwithalex

The article below presents us with a very good overview of how you should approach today’s stock market. I highly recommend that you give it a few minutes of your time.

It brings up an important issue. Will the bear market of 2014-2017 (as per our forecast) start with a bang or a whimper?

It all depends on your definition of a bang. If you define a bang as a quick decline of about 10% or so (on the Dow), it might. If your bang is more like an 1987 type of a crash of 20-25% within a relatively short period of time, it’s not going to happen.

As per our mathematical and timing work the bear market of 2014-2017 will be structurally similar to the bear market of 2000-2003. A lot of volatility, a lot of ups/downs and a general downtrend. A very difficult market. It will NOT be similar to a more directional bear market of 2007-2009.

In short, this bear market will drive all….. bulls, bear, markets pundits and everyone in between up the wall. I continue to believe that only those with proper market timing will be able to walk away with any gains. Everyone else is likely to be extremely frustrated by the experience. If you would like to learn more, please CLICK HERE.

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Will The Bear Market Start With A Bang Or A Whimper? The Answer Will Shock You Google

 

Stocks are telling you a bear market is coming

Opinion: Expect a choppy, sloppy end to the six-year bull run

MIAMI (MarketWatch) — This is how bear markets begin.

Two months ago, I pointed out that the U.S. stock market had topped out and was going through a churning process.

Since that observation, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.61%   has risen a bit higher but the Nasdaq COMP -0.72%  and Russell 2000 RUT -1.61%  indexes have dropped below their 50-day and 100-day moving averages. It’s only a matter of time before the Dow follows.

Bond yields may signal a warning

Yields on 30-year Treasury bonds have fallen this year, which could be a signal that economic growth will not heat up anytime soon.

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Bear markets start with a whimper or a bang. When it starts with a bang, the first clue will be a major break in the market that no one can correctly explain. That will eventually be followed by a correction (or crash), and everyone will know that something bad has happened. The indexes will fall by double digits, investors will panic, and stocks get slaughtered.

Investors will be told to stay calm and not sell — but they will when the financial pain gets too great. They are also told that the market always comes back (although not all stocks will). Anxiety turns to fear as the market plunges. After a correction or crash, investors look for scapegoats while commentators ask, “Who could have known?” (Hint: Those willing to act on the clues and indicators were out of the market well before the most damage was done.)

But when a bear market starts with a whimper, it confuses nearly everyone. A meandering, volatile market is frustrating. At first, bulls are hopeful that the market will keep going up, but eventually, the market tops out and retreats.

I call this “death by a thousand pullbacks.” Instead of new highs, the market will make a series of short-lived but painful pullbacks. At first, the buy-on-the-dip investors will enter the market with new orders. As the bear market continues, the buy-on-the-dip strategy will stop working (along with most other long strategies).

Typically, a market making new highs is a healthy sign. In a looming bear market, new highs on lower volume is a red flag. That’s happening now. Also, leading technology stocks have gotten smashed, replaced by new leaders. After these new leaders fail there will be nowhere to hide.

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You may have noticed that some financial analysts on television seem confused. One week they make a bearish prediction, then reverse course. This is typical as the market transitions to a bear market.

Many commentators are confused because what has worked in the past stops working. Also, the behavior of other assets such as bonds and commodities don’t make sense. That’s a clue the market is entering a danger zone. Another red flag: Investors are buying stocks on margin at levels higher than in the previous peak years of 2008 and 2000. Whenever margin reaches excessive levels, bad things happen to the stock market.

Short-term, the market could churn higher. As prices rise, a lot of people will be fooled, especially if the Dow continues to make all-time highs. Many investors will not sell because they think they can either get out in time, or buy and hold through the next pullback or correction. The most aggressive investors will buy on the dip because stocks “are so cheap.” I’ve heard some financial commentators recommend that retail investors avoid a bear market by being “better stock pickers.” Ridiculous.

Here’s some advice: Rather than trying to be a stock-picking genius, before a bear market shreds your portfolio, think about getting out of the market even if you’re early. I’d rather give up 5% potential upside than risk 20% downside (or more).

Right now, the strongest case for the bulls is the Fed. And yet, in the history of the stock market, no institution has been able to prevent a bear market. You can’t fool Mother Market.

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Waiting for the pivot point

Eventually there will be a pivot (or inflection) point, and the market will snap. No one knows what the catalyst will be. It could be an economic event, a geopolitical crisis, or a spike in interest rates.

When the market snaps, nearly everyone but the biggest believers will realize the market is in trouble. By that time, there will be a mad rush for the exits as everyone attempts to sell at once.

No matter how many times you tell investors to be wary of a dangerous market, most don’t listen. Based on the clues, indicators, and personal observations, crunch time is getting closer. No one knows when, but I am certain: a bear market is inevitable — sooner rather than later. This is not doom and gloom. It is market reality.

Daily Stock Market Update. May 14th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart May 14 2014

A substantial down day with the Dow Jones down 101 points (-0.61%) and the Nasdaq down 29 points (-0.72%). 

The market has been stuck in a trading range since April 22nd (over the short-term) and since December 31st, 2013 (over the intermediary term). The question is….. why?  Our mathematical and timing work continues to point towards “Energy Accumulation”.

Just as if winding a spring, energy tends to accumulate within a range bound market. When it finally snaps, the energy is released and powerful/sharp moves tend to follow. The real question is…… when and which way.

Well, looking at some of the fundamental indicators might give you an idea. For instance, VIX is scraping the bottom of its trading range, extreme levels of investor optimism, collapsing yields and flattening yield curve, non existing spreads, FED tightening, market highs, etc….. might point your perception in a certain direction.

However, if you want a more precise answer you might want to take a look at our mathematical and timing work. It will show you exactly when (to the day) and in which direction. 

Once again, this  mathematical and timing work clearly shows that the bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 14th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

10-Year Treasury Note Screams Out “Recession Ahead”. Are You Listening?

10-Year Note

On January 1st, 2014 I started heavy buying of a 10-Year Treasury Note. With most people at the time thinking I was on a crack cocaine binge, thus far, the bet has paid off handsomely.

More importantly, the 10-Year Note broke a significant support level today at around 2.55%. I continue to maintain that the 10-Year Note is one of the better investments over the next few years or until downside targets are achieved. Here is why….

Generally speaking, the BOND Market is more intelligent. Yields breaking down is indicative of what the bond market sees. What does it see? A significant recession and a possible bear market. That view is very much in line with our overall forecast and our mathematical/timing work predicting a severe bear market/recession within the US Economy between 2014-2017.

In addition, 30-Year bear markets in Bond Yields DO NOT end in a V shape fashion. Typically there is a double or tripple bottom. Finally, there is a number of large gaps in the 10-Year treasury, suggesting that the bond market will retest it’s 2012 and 2013 yield lows. Possibly taking the market as low as 1.5-1.6% in yield.

Impossible? On the contrary and that’s exactly what my extremely accurate mathematical work shows.

As the saying goes, money talks and bullshit walks. Well, the money in the Treasury Market is talking. The only question is…… Are You Listening?  

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