According to Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, certain technical indicators are calling for a serious correction.
“I’m going to be completely clear here: I’m quite bearish and I think the market’s going significantly lower,(see chart below)”
From our point of view it’s no longer the question of IF, but of WHEN. Today, the market sits at an incredibly important juncture. From the fundamental point of view, it is substantially overpriced and highly speculative. Most of it as a direct result of FED intervention and credit infusion. With FED tightening, things will only get worse.
And while most technical indicators remain bullish for the time being, our mathematical and timing work does not share in the optimism. For instance, with the 5-year cycle terminating in early March and with the 17-year bear market cycle scheduled to complete in 2017, the market has very little (if any) upside left here.
Finally, a 20% decline from today’s levels would be just a starting point for the upcoming bear market of 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE
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Shocking S&P Chart Begs For A 20% Correction. Fact or Fiction? Google
Talking Numbers: This chart says we’re in for a 20% correction
We all know about the Marc Fabers, Peter Schiffs and Nouriel Roubinis of the world, endlessly calling for the mother of all crashes. But now a different source is sounding the alarm: the charts.
Despite the Dow Jones industrial average reaching a new record high, Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, says certain technical indicators are calling for a serious correction.
“I’m going to be completely clear here: I’m quite bearish and I think the market’s going significantly lower,” said Ross, a “Talking Numbers” contributor.photo
Ross sees a big problem with the S&P 500’s chart—a 20 percent problem to be exact. In 2011, the index corrected by about that much to its 150-week moving average after making moves very similar to its most recent price action.
“I think that we’re in exactly the same scenario,” said Ross, who notes that a similar decline to the current 150-week moving average would also be roughly 20 percent to around the 1,500 level. “I think that’s what we’re staring at right here. I think that there’s still time to get out of this market.”
Charts are one thing. But is there a fundamental reason to back up Ross’ bearish views?
Recent economic data have been soft, including this week’s first-quarter U.S. GDP report that showed the slowest growth since the fourth quarter of 2012. The earnings front has not been much better for growth stocks either (see Twitter and Facebook).
Yet according to Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, investors were already prepared for a slow first-quarter number.
“The stock market has been reflecting defensiveness all year,” said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. “The market already had a handle on the fact that it would already be weak.”
In particular, Sanchez says the recent weakness in housing is sounding the alarm for investors.
“If you look at the pillars of the economy that should be holding us up, one of the biggest that’s been doing poorly is housing,” Sanchez said. “If we see further (declines) in housing, that could be very negative. So, I do think that there is some reason for caution right now.”
