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Is Another 1987 Type Of A Market Crash Around The Corner?

1987 crash investwithalex

The chart above has spread around the financial community like a wildfire, predicting a 1987 type of a crash (20% down in 1-2 trading days) Is it legit? The chart is legit, but comparing today’s market environment to 1987 is like looking up horses ass to see it’s teeth -OR- it confuses cause and effect. 

While I am not suggesting that the crash is not possible, you could compare today’s market to many of the 5-year cycles I have described on this blog. Click Here to read some of it. In a nutshell, today’s market matches many other 5 year cycles, not only 1987….1924-1929, 1932-1937, 1961-1966, 1982-1987, 1994-2000, 2002-2007, 2009-2014, etc…there are many others. 

When the 5 year cycle completes itself the market tends to roll over. It will not be different this time around. Whether the market will crash or simply roll over into a sustain long term bear market is irrelevant here. What is relevant? The bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner and it will slam stocks over the next few years. If you would like to know exactly when it will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here. 

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Is Another 1987 Type Of Market Crash Around The Corner?  Google

Breakout Writes: Dow hits record as 1987 crash comparisons continue

Has a longtime Minnesota bull turned bearish? Jim Paulsen, Chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, came out with a peculiar research note earlier in the week. Paulsen highlighted some similarities with an S&P 500 (^GSPC) chart from our current bull market with one that shows a similarity to the 1982 bull market that culminated int the Black Monday crash in 1987:

 

the contemporary bull market has been following the 1982 bull market fairly closely. As recently as last year-end, both bulls were up about 175% from their respective bear market lows! The important anniversary passed just a couple days ago was the 1274th trading day of both bull markets – the day on 8/25/1987 when the 1982 bull market reached a notable peak. On that day, the S&P 500 Index peaked for the year at 336.77. Moreover, we are now just 37 trading days from another important anniversary in financial history – 10/19/1987 when the S&P 500 Index suffered its biggest single day collapse ever!

As intriguing as the comparison sounds, and with the Dow (^DJI) and S&P 500 hitting new all-time highs today, Breakout viewers will remember these comparisons with past market moves have usually been non-predictive. But fun market talk, sure.

Paulsen will be the first say he doesn’t see a big, ugly 20% move coming. “I’m not anticipating that [1987 type crash] at all,” he says, but he does point out the genesis of both bull markets as very similar – born out of extremely tough economic times in 1982 and 2009.

“I would suggest that history won’t repeat, i don’t think we’ll have a big collapse… but sometime in the next several months, good news on the economy might become bad news for the market like it did in 1987.” Paulsen says a 10% move wouldn’t surprise him in the least.

Despite his call for a modest correction, Paulsen still feels strongly that investors should be positioned aggressively in cyclicals (XLY), with this morning’s “Goldilocks” payrolls number keeping the market happy, and leaving the Fed little option but to continue its low rate policy and slow taper.

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Warning: Is NASDAQ’s Bloodbath Just Starting?

nasdaq selloff investwithalex

Today sell off should not come as surprise to anyone. Particularly those who have access to our premium subscribe section. In fact, we are making a lot of money on some of our short positions established over the last two weeks. Again, all trades and positioning is available in our premium section.  Further, today’s action might be just the prelude of what is to come. As I have said before, the bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner. If you would like to learn exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here.  

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Warning: Is NASDAQ’s Bloodbath Just Starting?  Google

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Food Prices Continue To Surge. Time To Invest?

Outside of inflation within the stock market and some other asset classes (due to FED’s credit expansion), food prices is the only other category where you can witness the so called inflation.  Otherwise, core inflation dropped to a 10 Year low of 1.1% Y-O-Y or 0.1% in February. 

Is it time to load up on food commodities or related stocks? 

It might be a good idea. Corn and soybeans in particular are starting looks good. The fundamental case for food commodities is fairly strong as well. The continuation of low interest rates and stimulus, potential rotation out of crude oil and into food commodities, various weather related disasters to crops around the world, etc….. can all play well in making the bull case for the markets in question. While I do not currently have the cyclical/timing breakdown of the commodities markets, I would wait for a technical confirmation of the bull market here (use corn) before committing capital.     

commodity prices

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Food Prices Continue To Surge. Time To Invest?  Google

 

Rising food prices pinch consumers, but could enrich investors

Drought and severe cold mean hardship for farmers and headaches for strapped consumers facing higher grocery prices.

But on Wall Street, the severe California water shortage and extreme winter weather conditions across the country are among reasons to warm to agriculture-related investments, which appear well-positioned to continue recovering after having spoiled in the commodity bust of recent years.

Large harvests and cash exiting from the once-popular “commodity trade” among fund managers led to a serious slump in crop prices last year. But so far in 2014, the PowerShares DB Agriculture exchange-traded fund (DBA) has climbed 15% in price. This fund invests directly in a broad spectrum of crop and livestock commodity futures.

This likely means an end of the brief reprieve from food inflation U.S. households were granted in 2013. The USDA forecasts retail food prices as a whole are likely to climb 2.5% to 3.5% in 2014, driven largely by drought-impacted supply strains on fruits, vegetables, dairy products and eggs.

The United Nations’ food organization likewise reported global food prices jumped in March to their highest level in a year, with political turmoil in Ukraine – a major grain producer – adding to weather-related difficulties.

Some individual food goods are seeing outsized price shocks. Market prices for the world’s most popular variety of coffee beans are up more than 60% this year to a two-year high, due in part to drought and then disruptively heavy rains in Brazil. (Consumers going to their local coffee houses for a cup have not been affected by this surge and are generally less likely to feel the hit from upward movement of raw commodity prices.) In a quirkier development, lime prices have more than doubled in recent months due to bad weather, disease and disruptions by organized crime.

Nasty winter weather fouled transport networks and has stranded plenty of wheat in storage facilities, and years of summer drought have left the nation’s cattle herd at multi-decade lows. As Yahoo Breakout points out in the attached video, corn prices in particular are on the climb, helped along this week by a USDA report estimating American farmers will allot 4% less acreage to corn this year.

Add all these supply issues to a still-hungry and growing world, and the case for hunting for some agricultural plays appears even brighter – especially given that shares of so many big ag-related companies still trade well below their peak levels of a few years ago, even as the broad stock market clicks to new all-time highs.

The most popular proxy for the barnyard economy, the MarketVectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO), is almost exactly flat over the past two years, left behind by the 35% advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. The ETF is heavily weighted in seed, fertilizer, crop-processing and farm-equipment leaders such as Monsanto Co. (MON), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) and Deere & Co. (DE).

In the past month, “the Moo,” as the fund is cheekily known, has shown some life, outpacing the broad market and gaining the attention of investors looking for overlooked opportunities in a picked-over market.

 

Josh Brown, financial advisor at Ritholtz Wealth Management and writer of the Reformed Broker blog, has flagged the sector as a potential outperformer this year, and a growing group of chart-studying technical traders have warmed to the Moo as it flirts with breaking out from its longstanding range between about $50 and $55.

Deere shares in particular have shown new life in recent weeks, climbing nearly 6% in the past month to approach $92, after going sideways for a year. The stock is intriguing for its combination of a modest valuation – about 11-times forecast 2014 profits of $8.43 a share – and for being largely disliked by the Street. Only four analysts among the 23 who follow Deere rate the stock a Buy, versus eight with Sell-equivalent ratings. That’s encouraging to Deere bulls, from a contrarian perspective. 

Jim Larkins, manager of the Wasatch Small Cap Value fund, (WMCVX) focuses in large part on “fallen angel” stocks – one-time high-riding favorites that have fallen temporarily out of favor. He’s eyeing a handful of agricultural plays as possible rebound candidates. He reports that he hasn’t yet pulled the trigger, in fear that the broad ag cycle might not have durably bottomed, “but we can’t be too far away.”

Among the names on his watch list are Titan International Inc. (TWI), a maker of tires and wheels for tractors and other off-road vehicles; Intrepid Potash Inc. (IPI), a rare U.S.-based potash producer for fertilizers that might become an acquisition target someday; and American Vanguard Corp. (AVD), which distributes older, “orphaned” herbicide and pesticide products many farmers are rediscovering. All three stocks are well below their highs of a couple of years ago, but have stabilized at cheaper prices. 

It’s hard to find a less dazzling economic sector than this one. But that’s exactly why these earthier names might prove to be ripe opportunities in a market captivated by buzzy Internet and consumer “story stocks.”

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Attention: VIX Foretells A Major Market Beating Ahead

The VIX is scratching the bottom of the barrel here, indicating outright complacence in this highly speculative and overpriced market. Selling around $12.75 VIX is not that far from it’s all time low. Just as a reference point, we faced a very similar situation in 2007 when VIX got into $10 territory. Right before the 2007-2009 collapse initiated. Today, we face a very similar situation. Not only in VIX, but in market’s fundamental setup. As per out mathematical and timing work the bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner. When it starts expect VIX to spike. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here. 

VIX

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Attention: VIX Foretells A Major Market Beating Ahead  Google

Why the market may be underpricing fear

Is the market too complacent? 

Right now, it looks like fear has been in a little bit of a bear market, at least when measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, or “the fear index” as it’s affectionately called.

The index basically measures the cost of insuring stocks against a fall, and from the looks of it, the market isn’t all that fearful. As of Thursday, the VIX was trading around 13. Just two weeks ago, it was as high as 17 and, in early February, it was above 21.

That may not be a good thing. The VIX and stocks tend to move inversely. Often times, a low VIX can signal complacency. And despite some global turmoil, judging by the VIX, investors don’t seem that concerned.    

“Trading the VIX has really been tough,” says CNBC contributor Andrew Busch, editor and publisher of the Busch Update. “People have been trying to buy breakouts on this, expecting bad things to happen like the Ukraine.”

However, those expecting the VIX to break above the 21 handle have thus far been disappointed. Busch notes that the VIX has stayed well within a range of between 21 and 11 for the past couple of years, a far cry from exactly four years ago when it hit 48.2.

CNBC contributor Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, said that although issues such as shake-ups in emerging market currencies and the Crimea crisis have caused the VIX to spike ever so slightly, the market is still pricing risk down.

“They’re ignoring [risk issues] and they’re looking towards the fact that we’re coming out of a cold weather spell that has kept macro data down,” said Sanchez. “That macro data is starting to pick back up. We’re starting to see better jobs numbers. The general positivity in the markets is basically causing the markets to underprice risk.”

Sanchez believes the market is underestimating risk at a time when she thinks stocks are fully priced if not slightly expensive.

“Any of those risks could actually have a devastating effect on the markets,” said Sanchez. “That’s why it’s important to watch the VIX when it gets this low.”

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Warning: Chinese Homebuilders Begin Their Collapse

As per Bloomberg report below there are over 90,000 real estate developers in China. A huge number, even for a country of that size. With unprecedented credit growth in China over the last decade and over the last 5 years in particular (click here), this bubble is ready to blow up. Zhejiang Xingrun, the biggest developer in Fenghua, is now in default after having no money left over to repay any of the more than $500 Million in loans. According to some reports, tens of thousands of other developers find themselves in a very similar situation. 

Yet, that doesn’t not deter most of China’s real estate bulls. According to Andy Rothman at Matthews Asia, there is no property bubble and prices in China’s real estate will continue to increase. Right, I forgot. Millions of dirt poor Chinese form various provinces are about to move into the empty cities to buy all of those poorly build and highly overpriced apartments. The reality is, it’s never different and always ends the same way. Expect Chinese real estate market to blow up as soon as global recession of 2014-2017 settles in.  

China Homebuilders

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Bloomberg Writes: A Shakeout Looms for China’s Homebuilders

Amid a cluster of half-built brick townhouses surrounded by peach groves on the outskirts of Fenghua city, workers could be seen taking down metal scaffolding and hauling away steel plates last month. They had heard that Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate, the company building the housing development called Peach Blossom Palace, was insolvent. “The developer owed us hundreds of thousands of yuan” for scaffolding and steel, said workers Xie and Wang, who would only give their surnames. “We are taking these materials back for now because there’s no work here.”

The collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun may signal the start of a shakeout among the nation’s almost 90,000 real estate companies. After China began allowing private homeownership in 1998, homebuilders binged on easy credit from banks and other lenders. Now many developers are struggling with debt as thousands of apartment buildings across the country sit empty and the government makes it harder to borrow. CBRE Global Investors says there are about 30,000 developers after small construction companies and those formed for only one project are eliminated. “That is far too many, even for a country as large as China,” says Richard van den Berg, country manager for China at CBRE. “Consolidation needs to take place.”

Home prices in China have climbed 60 percent since 2008, when the government began a 4 trillion yuan ($645 billion) stimulus program to counter the effects of the global financial crisis. Former Premier Wen Jiabao began trying to cool the property market in 2010, imposing higher down-payment requirements, raising interest rates on loans for second-home purchases, and increasing construction of low-cost housing. Li Keqiang, who succeeded Wen in March 2013, further tightened credit in June, in part by cracking down on nonbank lenders.

About 67 percent of housing under construction in China last year was in less affluent cities such as Fenghua, according to Nomura Holdings (NMR). About 120 miles south of Shanghai, with a population of 500,000, Fenghua is best known as the birthplace of former Chinese nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek. The city is filled with pawn shops, textile and garment factories, and empty residential buildings.

Zhejiang Xingrun, the biggest developer in Fenghua, owes 2.4 billion yuan to banks, 700 million yuan to private lenders, and 400 million yuan to construction companies, according to Xu Mengting, director of the news office at the Fenghua city government. The company hasn’t declared bankruptcy, and the local government is holding discussions with commercial banks about the company’s debts, Xu says.

Authorities have detained Shen Caixing, who founded Zhejiang Xingrun 14 years ago, and his son Shen Mingchong for raising money illegally, according to Xu. Neither Shen nor his son could be reached for comment. Wu Xijuan, a property agent at Tengfei real estate agency in Fenghua, says Shen was a celebrity. “Everybody called him ‘Cement Shen,’ because he started out with a renovation and cement business,” Wu says.

Zhejiang Xingrun was one of the first companies in the property business in Fenghua “with no previous experience or professional sales teams,” says Zhong Yongjin, a researcher at Centaline Property Agency, China’s biggest real estate brokerage. “But these local developers usually don’t have risk controls,” he says, and they don’t respond well to changes in market conditions. Xu, who says the main reason the developer is insolvent is that it “wasn’t run well,” adds that “fluctuation of land prices also played a role.”\

With lending tight, more developers such as Zhejiang Xingrun will go under, says Johnson Hu, a property analyst at CIMB Securities Research (CIMB:MK). Premier Li “has already signaled that as long as there are no systematic regional risks, the government won’t do much because some cases of default are inevitable,” Hu says.

While real estate companies may founder, the property market isn’t in danger of collapsing, according to Andy Rothman, an investment strategist with money manager Matthews Asia. He doesn’t see signs of a property bubble partly because urban income growth in China has outstripped the rise in home prices in the past eight years. Also, Chinese buyers pay for homes either in cash or with significant down payments. “Is this the tip of the iceberg or a signal that there are serious problems in the Chinese real estate market? That seems highly unlikely,” Rothman says. What has changed is that the Chinese government is more willing to let private companies fail, and “that is a good thing,” he says. “If you are going to have creative destruction, some companies are going to have to go out of business.”

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US Government Warns China & Russia. Hilarity Ensued.

In yet more proof that the US Government is being run by a bunch of retarded idiots (no offense to the mentally challenged community), the US has warned both Russia and China overnight. 

So, let me get this straight. Russia is not allowed to charge Ukraine market prices for gas? What had happened to the idea of American capitalism or market prices? China and Russia proceeded to shake in their boots as they were forced closer together by the western powers…….once again. Just as it was outlined in this Report. 

On a more serious note, the US needs to stop telling other nations what to do. Instead of promoting war, destabilizing nations, running up a huge debt, blowing up speculative bubbles, the US should concentrate on its own domestic issues and the economy. There is plenty to take care of here. 

cold war 2 investwithalex

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US Government Warns China & Russia. Hilarity Ensued.  Google

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Why Job Numbers Are Irrelevant

While everyone is scouring recently released Bureau of Labor Jobs Report, looking for any sign of economic clarity, I am here to tell you that such data is for the most part irrelevant when it comes to forecasting financial markets and/or the economy. If you are still wondering, March payroll came in it at 192,000, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.7%. Giving further indication that any tapering or tightening by the FED might come later than anticipated and not be as benign as some have feared. Great news for Wall Street. 

Yet, all of the above is irrelevant. If you have been following this blog for any period of time you know that I have stated, a number of times, that the FED will not be raising interest rates anytime soon due to an upcoming bear market of 2014-2017 and the subsequent US recession. While the job report above could be viewed as “no tightening”, it should be viewed as “any existing economic recovery/growth is running out of gas”.  Once that settles is, expect the markets to sell off. 

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Why Job Numbers Are Irrelevant Google

Jobs Report: Click Here

                              THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MARCH 2014


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in March, and the unemployment rate
was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment grew in professional and business services, in health care, and in mining
and logging.

Household Survey Data

In March, the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 10.5 million,
and the unemployment rate held at 6.7 percent. Both measures have shown little movement
since December 2013. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment
rate were down by 1.2 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women increased to 6.2
percent in March, and the rate for adult men decreased to 6.2 percent. The rates for
teenagers (20.9 percent), whites (5.8 percent), blacks (12.4 percent), and Hispanics
(7.9 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.4 percent
(not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2,
and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.7 million,
changed little in March; these individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the unemployed.
The number of long-term unemployed was down by 837,000 over the year. (See table A-12.)

Both the civilian labor force and total employment increased in March. The labor force
participation rate (63.2 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.9 percent)
changed little over the month. (See table A-1.) The number of persons employed part
time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was
little changed at 7.4 million in March. These individuals were working part time because
their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work. (See
table A-8.)

In March, 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed
from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not
in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime
in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched
for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 698,000 discouraged workers in March, down 
slightly from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged
workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are
available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor
force in March had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family
responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in March. Job growth averaged 183,000
per month over the prior 12 months. In March, employment grew in professional and business
services, in health care, and in mining and logging. (See table B-1.)

Professional and business services added 57,000 jobs in March, in line with its average
monthly gain of 56,000 over the prior 12 months. Within the industry, employment increased
in March in temporary help services (+29,000), in computer systems design and related
services (+6,000), and in architectural and engineering services (+5,000).

In March, health care added 19,000 jobs. Employment in ambulatory health care services
rose by 20,000, with a gain of 9,000 jobs in home health care services. Nursing care
facilities lost 5,000 jobs over the month. Job growth in health care averaged 17,000 per
month over the prior 12 months.

Employment in mining and logging rose in March (+7,000), with the bulk of the increase
occurring in support activities for mining (+5,000). Over the prior 12 months, the mining
and logging industry added an average of 3,000 jobs per month.

Employment continued to trend up in March in food services and drinking places (+30,000).
Over the past year, food services and drinking places has added 323,000 jobs.

Construction employment continued to trend up in March (+19,000). Over the past year,
construction employment has risen by 151,000.

Employment in government was unchanged in March. A decline of 9,000 jobs in federal
government was mostly offset by an increase of 8,000 jobs in local government, excluding
education. Over the past year, employment in federal government has fallen by 85,000.

Employment in other major industries, including manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail
trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and financial activities, changed
little over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.2
hour in March to 34.5 hours, offsetting a net decline over the prior 3 months. The
manufacturing workweek rose by 0.3 hour in March to 41.1 hours, and factory overtime
rose by 0.1 hour to 3.5 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory
employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.3 hour to 33.7 hours. (See
tables B-2 and B-7.)

In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged
down by 1 cent to $24.30, following a 9 cent increase in February. Over the year,
average hourly earnings have risen by 49 cents, or 2.1 percent. In March, average
hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged down
by 2 cents to $20.47. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from +129,000 to
+144,000, and the change for February was revised from +175,000 to +197,000. With these
revisions, employment gains in January and February were 37,000 higher than previously
reported.
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Feminist Nazis Demand Men Become Better Investors. The Outcome Is Unforgettably Beautiful.

INVESTMENT GRIN OF THE DAY

For once in my life I agree.
Here is the real reason why every male should strive to become a great investor. 

feminist nazis investwithalex

Z31

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Stock Market Update. April 3rd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart April 1st, 2014

A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 0 points (0.00%) and the Nasdaq down 39 points (-0.91%). 

A lot of market participants were extremely excited today. Particularly, the DOW Theory followers.  According to the Dow Theory, today’s market action confirmed the bull market by breaking December 31st, 2013 top by a mere 14 points. Making it all dandy in the land of the bull. Yet, we continue to be incredibly skeptical. Thus far, the market has performed as per our exact forecast (available in our subscriber section). In fact, we continue to believe that the markets luck is about to run out. With a number of significant gaps on the downside it is just a matter of time before the market begins to break down.

z32

That is exactly what our mathematical and timing work in the stock market indicates. The bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner and when it begins it should very quickly retrace back to February 5th, bottom. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here. 

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Stock Market Update. April 3rd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

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What These Financial Commentators Discuss Is Truly Shameful. Find Out The Truth Inside And You Will Be Furious Too.

z20

If you want to find the best financial analysis anywhere, you have to look at the short side. Not the long side. Since it is inherently more dangerous and risky to go short than to go long, short side market participants tend to do a lot more research when it comes to financial markets or individual stocks. 

The investment thesis for today’s bearish community is somewhat single minded. The entire US financial system (including the stock market) is in a giant financial bubble perpetuated by the FED, QE and other massive credit infusions. When it pops it will take our financial market, the real estate market, the credit market and the overall US Economy down with it. They are absolutely right. 

Z30

Yet, that doesn’t prevent idiot main stream financial commentators below (see the video as well) to make fun of presently unfortunate bears. According to them, the market is up 150% over the last 5 years and all bears are losers. Plus, given today’s financial situation it is highly probable the markets will continue to surge higher for the foreseeable future. Killing the rest of the bears in the process.  

Yet, I will leave you with this question. Where were these commentators in March of 2009 when the stock market bottomed? Well, if I remember correctly they were predicting Armageddon. Now, the situation is reversed. Instead of warning people of the upcoming bear market they are hyping it up.  As they say, the more things change the more they stay the same. 

As suggested here before, our mathematical and timing work shows the bear market of 2014-2017 is about to start. When it does there will be hell to pay. If you would like to learn exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here. 

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What These Financial Commentators Discuss Is Truly Shameful. Find Out The Truth Inside And You Will Be Furious Too.  Google

Breakout Reports: Market crash ‘omens’ bode well for stocks

Stocks hit another record high on Wednesday but you’d never know it from the headlines. Far from dancing in the streets pundits and young investors are focused on a 130-year old “sell-signal” possibly shaping up based on ancient technical indicators.

It’s the latest in a series of ominous comparisons. Who can forget last year’s repeated “Hindenberg Omen”? Once that theory went up in smoke it was replaced by a 1929 meme.

As if that weren’t bad enough USA Today has kicked off what amounts to a countdown clock until this bull market ends in a replay in the crash of ‘87. There are only 36 days remaining, for those building bomb shelters at home.

Taken as a whole it’s a miracle investor sentiment is only slightly below average as measured by AAII.com. Based on the confluence of omens there should be Molotov cocktails in the air and cop cars being flipped over in the streets. Instead the most loathed rally in the 222-year history of the NYSE continues.

 Jon Najarian of OptionMonster.com says much of the skepticism is being feuled by sour grapes. As Najarian points out in the attached video investors who have missed the rally are reduced to only two strategies: chase the market higher or double-down on fear tactics. If they can’t do one or the other, institutional money is going to see clients walking out the door.

There’s nothing to be done about having missed the bull market so far, but for those living in the now, Najarian still has a price target of 2050 on the S&P500 (^GSPC), a clear triple from the 666 low of March 2009.

“People want to bet on a bursting bubble,” as Dr. J puts it but it’s not going to happen with so many investors on the sideline and global central banks still sitting on stimulus ammo. If you’re looking for a negative catalyst the fundamentals aren’t going to be on your side until the pent up consumer demand left frozen all winter is gone.

There weren’t many major newspapers calling a top in October of 1929. Three days before the crash Irving Fisher, then famous for being “the greatest economist in history,” infamously announced that stocks had reached a permanently high plateau. Even during the crash Fisher assured the public that stocks were simply “shaking out the lunatic fringe.”

When USA Today stops predicting looming catastrophes and starts holding investors’ hands it will be time to get seriously worried.