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The Real Reason Why Car Dealers Are Terrified Of Tesla

No More Oil Changes. For most car dealers, their servicing centers are their cash cows. And nothing brings cars in like a regular oil change. It’s not a secret that once they are changing your oil they are likely to find 20 other things that “require your immediate attention and repair or your tires will fall off and you will die in a fiery crash”. Now, Tesla is trying to change all of that. With their battery pack technology, your car will not need an oil change or for the most part other servicing. In fact, Tesla offers service download where they would download your car information and let the software fix it. 

Isn’t technology great?

Not according to Coalition of Automotive Retailers which is fighting Tesla and it’s direct sales model in every state that it can.  

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The Real Reason Why Car Dealers Are Terrified Of Tesla  Google

 

Car Dealers Are Terrified of Tesla’s Plan to Eliminate Oil Changes

Car dealers fear Tesla. In states across the country, powerful car dealer associations have lobbied to ensure the electric car maker and its direct-sales model are kept out. This movement claimed another victory this week when New Jersey banned Tesla stores in the state.

On the surface, the fear is hard to fathom. In New Jersey, for instance, sales of Tesla’s $70,000 Model S reportedly number in the hundreds. But if you dig a little deeper, it becomes obvious why dealers are worried. They don’t just fear Tesla’s cars. They fear Tesla’s plan to create a world where you never have to bring your car into the shop again.

The first and most striking way Tesla kills the dealer service department cash cow is downloads. As part of its sales pitch, Tesla says you should think of its Model S sedan as “an app on four wheels.” That may sound like vacuous Silicon Valley marketing copy, but the company isn’t just being metaphorical. Software is at the heart of what keeps Teslas running. These internet-connected cars are designed to self-diagnose their problems. The vehicles can also download software fixes or updates — even new features — much like an iPhone when Apple puts out a new version of iOS. When fixes happen over the air, there’s no need for a shop in the first place.

It’s hard to charge for an oil change when there’s no oil to be changed.

The ability to repair a car via software is especially important when the vehicle itself consists of so much new technology that traditional mechanics don’t know how to fix. The flip side is that without an internal combustion engine, there’s not as much to fix. I’ve written before that a Tesla without its outer shell looks like acell phone on wheels. It’s basically just a big battery. That means no spark plugs, no air filters, no fuel pumps, no timing belts. In short, Teslas don’t have any of the parts that force you to take your car in for “regularly scheduled maintenance” — services that can cost dearly at the dealer. But it’s hard to charge for an oil change when there’s no oil to be changed.

To be fair, Tesla isn’t doing away entirely with bringing your car in. The company recommends an inspection once a year or every 12,500 miles. Its service plans start at $600 per year* or less if you buy multiple years at once. The plans include replacement of standard parts like brake pads and windshield wipers. The company will monitor your car remotely and tell you when there are problems, such as faulty batteries. In theory, there are pitfalls in an arrangement where the company that makes your car is the only one that can fix it. But Tesla would seem to alleviate that concern with its flat-rate plans, rather than fee-for-service gouging for every fix. What’s more, the company says your warranty is still valid regardless of whether you get your car serviced at all.

Yes, these all sound like grand promises. And for all we know, Tesla won’t be able to deliver on them in the end. But Consumer Reports’ decision to name the Model S the country’s best overall car suggests otherwise.

Even the fact that Tesla is making these promises at all must strike horror in the hearts of dealers. Once presented with the possibility that most of the costly headaches of owning a car aren’t necessary, car buyers might start asking dealers why they don’t change, too. The answer, of course, is that all those headaches are exactly what keep us coming back to the shop and putting more money in their pockets.

At Tesla’s most recent annual meeting, one shareholder asked founder and CEO Elon Musk about whether challenges to the company from traditional auto dealers hurt the company’s business outlook. Musk argued that consumer desire for a better way of buying and owning cars would win out. He said the traditional franchise model that dominates auto-selling in the U.S. wouldn’t work for Tesla for several reasons, including its reliance on maintenance to make money. “Our philosophy with respect to service is not to make a profit on service,” Musk said. “I think it’s terrible to make a profit on service.”

The shareholders applauded — the same shareholders that have sent Tesla’s stock price up nearly 650 percent over the past year. Yes, for now, Tesla only makes luxury cars, and its approach to service might seem like a luxury. But if it starts making cars regular people can afford, that applause for car dealers could be the sound of money spiraling down the drain.

What You Ought To Know About Warren Buffett

buffett investwithalex

FUN FACTS ABOUT WARREN BUFFETT: 

  • Warren Buffett, the 3rd richest man in the world, still lives in the $31,500 house he bought in 1957.
  • Warren Buffett gave 85% of his money to charity (mostly to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation) to a total of 40.7 billion dollars.
  • Warren Buffett filed his first tax return in 1944, at the age of 14, and took a $35 deduction for the use of his bike and watch on his paper route.
  • In 2010, a lunch with Warren Buffett was auctioned off to a man for $2.63 million dollars
  • If you invested $1000 with Warren Buffett in 1957, you would have amassed upwards of $30 Million today.

WARREN BUFFETT QUOTES:

  • “If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.”
  • “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
  • “Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.”

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What You Ought To Know About Warren Buffett Google

Investment Joke Of The Day

Young Chuck moved to Texas and bought a Donkey from a farmer for $100. The farmer agreed to deliver the Donkey the next day.

The next day he drove up and said, ‘Sorry son, but I have some bad news, the donkey died.’ Chuck replied, ‘Well, then just give me my money back.’ The farmer said, ‘Can’t do that. I went and spent it already.’ Chuck said, ‘Ok, then, just bring me the dead donkey.’ The farmer asked, ‘What ya gonna do with him? Chuck said, ‘I’m going to raffle him off.’ The farmer said ‘You can’t raffle off a dead donkey!’ Chuck said, ‘Sure I can. Watch me. I just won’t tell anybody he’s dead.’

A month later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked, ‘What happened with that dead donkey?’ Chuck said, ‘I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at two dollars a piece and made a profit of $998.’ The farmer said, ‘Didn’t anyone complain?’ Chuck said, ‘Just the guy who won. So I gave him his two dollars back.’

Chuck now works for Goldman Sachs.

Daily Stock Market Update. March 17th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

Daily Chart March 17, 2014 investwithalex

A strong up day with the Dow Jones up 181 points (1.13%) and the Nasdaq up 34 points (0.81%). 

This stock market action is consistent with what I have warned about at the end of February. The fact that the market is shifting from it’s bull market to it’s bear market and to expect a lot more volatility. That is exactly what we have seen thus far in March.  While most people believe that the market is acting wildly due to geopolitical events associated with Ukraine/Russia/USA, it is anything but true. As I have said so many times before, the market is tracing out it’s exact mathematical structure. When the market is done, it will reverse itself and start the bear market of 2014-2017.

Now, the market left a huge gap on the downside that it will have to eventually close.  Whether it’s going to happen over the next few days or over the next few weeks is indicative of whether or not the bear market has already started. If you would you like to know exactly when the market will top out as well as the internal structure of the upcoming 2014-2017 bear market, please CLICK HERE.  

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Daily Stock Market Update. March 17th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google

Warning: Before You Travel To The US

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Over 54% of Americans have never been outside of the US. A sad statistic to be sure, but understandable. After all, the State Department has so many “warnings” that it is plausible to see why most American’s believe that they will be rapped, kidnapped, shot and beheaded as soon as the step foot on any foreign soil. Having been around the world, for the most part, I completely ignore the State Department advisory warnings. Yet, have you ever thought about what other nations warn about when it comes to travel into the US?

That’s right….damn German nudist….I am talking about you. If you keep undressing in public places we will keep arresting you.  Here are some of the other ones and they are classic. 

Australia

“The US has higher incidence of violent crime compared to Australia. Earthquakes, fires or wildfires, floods, extreme heat, landslides and debris flow (mudslides), thunderstorms and lightning, tornadoes, tsunamis, volcanoes (Hawaii, Alaska and Pacific Northwest), winter storms (freezing rain, heavy snow and blizzards) and extreme cold. Regardless of how healthy and fit you are, if you can’t afford travel insurance, you can’t afford to travel to the US.”

Canada

“Remain alert and discreet while in entertainment areas. Canada and the U.S. have a treaty that permits a Canadian imprisoned in the U.S. to request a transfer to Canada.”

England and the UK

The Gov.UK site warns that U.S. “speed and drink driving [sic] limits are lower than in the UK” so, watch yourself. “The plant Khat (or Qat) is an illegal narcotic in the US. You will be arrested and detained with the possibility of a prison sentence if you bring Khat into the country.” 

Germany

“Nude bathing and changing clothes at the beach stirs up public agitation and can lead to unpleasantnesses.”

Ireland

“Crime remains relatively low in the US.” However, the weather is another matter and there are numerous warnings about hurricanes including the fact that the season runs from June until the end of November and “can affect the whole of the southern US.” “When it is hot, drink plenty of water and apply sun screen” and also, “When it is cold, keep warm with layers of clothes.” 

Italy

“Beware of brushfires in California” 

That’s not too bad. 

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Warning: Before You Travel To The US Google

Is China Ready To Start It’s Mass Migration To “Empty Cities”?

China’s communist leadership has long maintained that they are building infrastructure and “empty cities” to allow more than 700 Million Chinese now living in the rural areas to migrate to urban centers. It’s quite an ambitious plan, where close to 100 Million people (equivalent to about 33% of the US population) are expected to make the move by 2020.  

Will it work? 

I believe the plan itself will work as more and more Chinese will chose urban living and higher wages. However, this move will do nothing to bypass China’s economic and credit issues. With massive credit, shadow banking and real estate bubbles, China won’t be able to escape massive defaults and their subsequent impact on the Chinese economy.  Plus, there are numerous questions of exactly how these rural Chinese supposed to afford to live in widely overpriced cities. Either way, it would be interesting to see how this experiment works out. 

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Is China Ready To Start It’s Mass Migration To “Empty Cities”  Google

China announces plans to expand cities, railways to support economic growth, raise incomes

BEIJING (AP) — China has announced plans to expand its cities and improve public services to support economic growth by allowing millions more rural residents to migrate to urban jobs.

The Cabinet plan issued Sunday calls for raising the share of China’s population of almost 1.4 billion people living in cities to 60 percent from 53.7 percent now, a shift of about 90 million people.

The ruling Communist Party sees allowing people to migrate into cities for higher-paid jobs as a pillar of more sustainable growth based on domestic consumption instead of trade and investment.

China’s evolution from a mostly rural society began with market-oriented economic reform in the 1980s. Cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have grown to become among the world’s largest but migrants are hampered by a household registration system that binds them to their hometowns. That limits access to schools, health care and pensions even for those who live in cities for years.

Sunday’s announcement of the “National New Type Urbanization Plan” for 2014-2020 gave no financial or other details. But plans announced earlier call for improving housing for 100 million people who live in dilapidated shantytowns.

“Domestic demand is the fundamental impetus for China’s development, and the greatest potential for expanding domestic demand lies in urbanization,” the report said, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

The ruling party has promised in its latest five-year development blueprint to make the economy more productive by giving entrepreneurs and market forces a bigger role and overhauling banking and other industries.

The urbanization plan says railways will reach cities with more than 200,000 residents by 2020 and those with more than 500,000 people will be linked by high-speed rail, according to Xinhua.

It promises to pursue a “human-centered and environmentally friendly path,” according to Xinhua.

“A scientific and reasonable urban development model should be adopted, with green production and consumption becoming the mainstream in urban economic activities,” it said. “China should strive to push for harmonious and pleasant living conditions.”

Longer-term, authorities expect 300 million people from the countryside to become city dwellers by 2030, the equivalent of migration by the entire U.S. population.

The latest plan promises to give permanent urban status to 100 million rural migrants, according to Xinhua.

A study by Tsinghua University in Beijing found only 27.6 percent of China’s people have urban status with full claims to education, health and other public services, while hundreds of millions of city dwellers with rural status have limited benefits.

Bill Gates Confirms: Robots Will Take Your Jobs

I have been a proponent that outsourcing, macroeconomic forces and robotics will be the major driving forces behind increased unemployment over the next few decades. In fact, in one of my earlier articles “4 Reasons US Unemployment Rate Will Be at 20% by 2017” I have outlined the rationale and analysis behind such developments. Bill Gates tends to agree (see article below). According to him, upcoming software and robotics advances will decimate our labor pool over the next few decades. It will impact “low-skilled” category particularly hard. I tend to agree.  

I guess laying on the couch, eating bonbons, watching Jerry Springer while robots wipe your ass will be the future for many Americans. I can’t wait. 

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Bill Gates Confirms: Robots Will Take Your Jobs  Google

Bill Gates: Yes, robots really are about to take your jobs

Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates isn’t going to sugarcoat things: The increasing power of automation technology is going to put a lot of people out of work. Business Insiderreports that Gates gave a talk at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington, DC this week and said that both governments and businesses need to start preparing for a future where lots of people will be put out of work by software and robots.

“Software substitution, whether it’s for drivers or waiters or nurses… it’s progressing,” Gates said. “Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set… 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model.”

As for what governments should do to prevent social unrest in the wake of mass unemployment, the Microsoft cofounder said that they should basically get on their knees and beg businesses to keep employing humans over algorithms. This means perhaps eliminating payroll and corporate income taxes while also not raising the minimum wage so that businesses will feel comfortable employing people at dirt-cheap wages instead of outsourcing their jobs to an iPad.

And it’s not just “low-skilled” workers who will have to worry about automation. AsBusiness Insider points out, The Economist earlier this year predicted that high-paying jobs such as accountants, real estate sales agents and commercial pilots would all lose their jobs to software within the next 20 years.

Why Most Stock Market Bears Will Be Disappointed.

Fedreservestockchart-investwithalex

If you pay attention to today’s bearish community and to the likes of Elliotwave.com or Zerohedge.com you would walk away with a perception that the Dow Jones is going to 1,000 or lower. In fact, according to them you would be better off stock pilling guns, ammo and canned food. If you have the same point of view, I am sorry, but you will lose a lot of money over the next few years.  

Yes, our incredibly accurate timing and mathematical work confirms that there will be a bear market over the next few years. Between 2014-2017 to be exact. Yet, it will not be as severe as the bears would like you to believe. In fact, it won’t be half as severe as the bear market leg between 2007-09. Now, most of the Perma Bear will dismiss this notion as nonsense. They want the market to collapse and they won’t be happy until we see a 1929 type of a crash. Yet, it a dangerous delusion that will cost them a lot of money. Just as it did over the last 5-Years when the stock market completely annihilated all of their short positions.   

Instead, if you would like to know exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start and it’s exact internal composition (forecastered to the day), please check out our work on this site….. Click Here. 

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Why Most Stock Market Bears Will Be Disappointed  Google

Shocking Secret Revealed: Will Zillow.com Accelerate Upcoming Real Estate Collapse?

What was unimaginable just two decades ago is now a reality. The amount of local real estate data one can get with a click of their mouse is mind boggling. While this can be “net positive” when the real estate market is going up, it can quickly turn into a major nightmare when the real estate market is heading down (as we anticipate it to do over the next few years). An incredibly popular real estate website Zillow.com traffic growth rate just went parabolic, now bringing in over 70 Million unique visitors in January of 2014. 

Is that good or bad? 

Well, it’s not dissimilar to speculating in penny stocks and hitting refresh button on your browser every few seconds (back in the day). People are starting to watch their local real estate markets very carefully. This is a speculative mentality. While it does wonders on the way up, a lot of people will rush to sell when they see their comps going negative. I am afraid they will find very few (if any) buyers on the other side. Perhaps collapsing the real estate prices much faster than anyone anticipates. We just have to wait and see. 

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Shocking Secret Revealed: Will Zillow.com Accelerate Upcoming Real Estate Collapse? Google

 

From our friends at Doctorhousingbubble.com 

You can’t stop the internet when it comes to real estate data.  Zillow is a great example of technology revolutionizing the way people view real estate.  Some of you are old enough to remember when the closely guarded MLS was only accessible by your local real estate agent.  Unless you were ready to do some digging, finding out what a home sold for took a bit of time.  It was also hard to view a list of available homes for sale.  That is no longer the case.  When Zillow initially came out the housing bubble was still raging.  My initial thought was that access to information would only serve to create bigger booms and deeper busts.  Keep in mind that the entire housing system is still built upon the appraisal system.  Basically each home is only as good as the last few sales.  When a market is booming and people are now able to see the boom in real time the temptation to buy can ramp up.  When the boom bursts as it did in 2008, you can also see how quickly things will reverse.  Things are already slowing down and sales are dropping dramatically in some areas.  Does access to data liberate us from the old model of buying and selling real estate?

The real estate information revolution

I love digging around in the housing data.  Real estate by far is going to be the biggest purchase most Americans will ever make.  In the past, this big buying decision was usually entrusted to those in the industry.  It made sense if the only folks with access to the MLS were real estate agents.  They held all the cards.  Most people had no idea what homes were for sale until an agent drove them around to view target properties.  Now, open houses are posted online and many people arrive agent free.

People are still irrational and that is why markets boom and bust.  People had access to great information before the tech meltdown in the early 2000s.  Zillow was around in 2006 yet the housing market had its first ever nationwide meltdown starting late in 2007 when data started becoming readily available to all.  The housing market has become a speculative asset class that captures the attention of the masses.  Entire mythologies are built around real estate.  Confirmation bias is extreme in the industry even though we have witnessed 7,000,000 foreclosures since this crisis hit.

The appetite for real estate information is insatiable:

zillow traffic

Zillow put out this chart showing the visitors to their site.  Back in 2009 Zillow was getting about 5 million unique visitors per month.  Today that number is up to 70 million.  This is a massive number of people going to a site dedicated to real estate data.

It is important to understand what is going on behind the numbers.  Appraisals are largely based on a “sales comparison approach” where recent sales are used as a basis for current pricing.  This is great in a market with a high number of transactions and relatively stable price changes but what happens whensales dwindle or inventory flat out disappears?  We are seeing some of this occur where some zip codes are reaching new peaks on low sales volume.

Redfin also provides some good data and we can see that sales are taking a hit in the West Coast:

year over year sales

Year-over-year sales in the West Coast are down 13.4 percent versus 5.9 percent nationwide.  In California sales are leading the way in this year-over-year decline:

california market

Sales in the state are down 13.7 percent year-over-year and the median home price is up 21.3 percent although this trend has stalled out for the last couple of months.  Affordability in California is horrible.  Only one out of three families can actually afford the median priced home.  The last post was interesting and we see many young professional families with six figure incomes struggling to purchase homes in high priced areas.  What is fascinating is that many of these high income households are pausing to buy because they are running the numbers.  Numbers that many times are pulled from these new venues of data.

Why are these seemingly intelligent high earners balking at buying when the trend is obviously showing higher prices?  I believe one of the larger ironies of having access to data is that it makes people more prone to manias and panics.  The late night mantras of “real estate never goes down” or the simple minded retorts of “buying makes sense at any time” are largely lost on a tech savvy audience that can crunch the numbers and understands opportunity costs and can run the numbers on a simple Excel sheet.  The days of fooling a large number of people with hollow mantras is largely gone.  We can see what is going on simply by typing in a few numbers.  However, it is naïve to think that greed, the fuel that sets manias ablaze is also gone.

There is a bigger complexity to the system.  Can the Fed really control interest rates for a very long time?  Do baby boomers have adequate retirement funds to keep them going into deep old age?  With sales slowing down and prices stalling out, will speculators pullback and spook the data hungry mob into changing their tune?  The news cycle feeds off of the quick headline so you have to wonder what will happen when the housing market inevitably slows down as it is.  Going back to the late 1990s, we have yet to see a stable market for more than a few years.  Boom and bust has been the new theme:

case shiller

Boom and bust seems to be a new trait of the housing market.  Access to information only seems to feed the beast or starve the giant.  The fact that so many in their 20s and 30s with healthy incomes that put them in the top 10 percent of households are hesitating to buy tells you something.  These people want a home but are targeting markets flooded by investors, speculators, and people simply willing to mortgage their lives for a poorly built property.  There are 7,000,000 reasons why people should run the numbers carefully and think deeply about making a giant purchase.

It is fascinating to see the number of people being vocal about buying in high priced areas today.  This was similar to the rhetoric we saw in 2006 and 2007.  Some have sound arguments and others are merely using their own confirmation bias as a way to extrapolate their very unique circumstances onto the future.  People seem to crave a social affirmation when buying.  Those that are successful usually feel pressure from family, friends, or even their own internal dialogue that buying is simply the next best thing to do.  Once they buy, the entire narrative usually develops on how marvelous of a decision it was.  Some even mistake luck with market timing acumen.  The rental parity argument makes sense with smaller down payments but when we are talking $100,000, $200,000, or even $300,000 for a down payment, this argument falls flat.  An all-cash investor doesn’t have to worry about rental parity from day one.  Make the down payment large enough and you are likely to arrive at rental parity no matter what.  There are bigger things at play.  How many can actually save this much?  What about the lost opportunity cost in say the stock market?  Can someone actually carry this nut 30 years forward?  It is interesting to note the volume of e-mails I have gotten in the last couple of years of people asking for confirmation about a buying decision.  My response?  Go ahead and buy if you feel you absolutely need to!  I’m not the one that will carry a $4,000, $5,000, or even $6,000 monthly nut deep into the future.

What is also interesting is the big trend in people opting to rent versus buy.  Many have no choice but many that have the ability to buy are opting not to.  Some would rather lease a nicer home versus stretching to buy in an overheated market that is creating a halo effect on neighboring cities.

Access to data is great but I think this coupled with the instant media analysis only accentuates the boom and bust cycle of real estate.  There is a strong possibility that this year, prices will go negative year-over-year in some areas especially if the slowdown in sales continues.  Then the feedback loop will reverse.  We have not had a normal real estate market for more than 20 years so why do some think that after this incredible investor induced boom that somehow, we will calmly reach a new permanently high plateau?  The biggest argument for higher prices is basically the “because the past had lower prices” group and the “real estate always goes up in good areas” group that largely uses anecdotal stories as a method of ignoring the growing strain on local incomes.  I can get behind this rally in home prices if good jobs were plentiful and incomes were moving up in sync with real estate values instead of being driven up byinvestor speculation and Fed market manipulation.  It is good to see that those in their 20s and 30s with solid household incomes are actually crunching the numbers instead of mindlessly waddling into a massive housing purchase by following some old tired mantra.  Remember kids, it used to be true that “real estate never faced a nationwide price decline” until it did only a few years ago.

Attention: The Crisis In Ukraine Is Now Over…..Bull Market To Continue?

After analyzing Russian media for quite some time I believe the conflict in Russia is now over. Putin got what he wanted……a highly strategic and valuable piece of real estate known as Crimea. Plus, both Putin and Russian people see this as a major victory over the West.  Given the West’s incredibly weak sanction response, Russia is ready to be done here. While Putin will maintain a high level of Russian troop presence around Ukraine, just in case, he is somewhat reluctant to go into East Ukraine. If things remain as they are, you can consider this conflict over.

The only thing that can escalate the situation further is sanctions that have a bite. Looking at today’s situation, I see very little evidence that either the EU nor the US are willing to go far enough to hit Russia with actual sanctions.  However, if they do, you will see an immediate re-escalation of hostilities in Ukraine. At that stage, Putin will be willing to go into Eastern Ukraine to show his dominance. 

In terms of the stock market, this geopolitical issue will not impact the markets over the long terms. While we might see some short-term volatility associated with Russia’s action, over the long-term Ukraine becomes irrelevant. The Bear Market of 2014-2017 will start shortly, ushering in much lover prices over the next few years. If you would like to find out exactly when it starts and it’s exact internal structure, please Click Here. 

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Attention: The Crisis In Ukraine Is Now Over…..Bull Market To Continue Google

 WAR IS OVER INVESTWITHALEX