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What You Ought To Know About America’s Unemployment Problem

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Reuters Writes: Help wanted: Obama calls on CEOs to help fix jobless problem

WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) – President Barack Obama will meet on Friday with a group of chief executive officers who have agreed to make sure their companies do not rule out hiring people just because their resumes show they have been out of work for a while.

More than 300 companies have agreed to a one-page list of “best practices” for recruiting and hiring people from the ranks of the long-term unemployed – a group that has struggled to find work in spite of an otherwise improved economy. “It’s saying that those who are long-term unemployed should get a fair shot,” said Gene Sperling, Obama’s top economic advisor.

The U.S. jobless rate has remained stubbornly high at 6.7 percent, but Sperling told reporters the rate would be closer to 5 percent were it not for the roadblocks to finding work for those unemployed for six months or more.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

The whole notion of Obama calling on CEO’s to “help fix jobless problem” is an idiotic notion to begin with. A PR stunt. It’s identical to throwing fire crackers at a massive cargo ship and expecting any sort of a result.

The unemployment problem is a function of the overall economy. Business will start hiring when they hit capacity and start growing again. You might scratch your head and ask, well, isn’t our economy is growing fast? At least that’s what the media keeps telling us.  

NO. Again, the recovery you see is artificial. Driven by credit and speculation. Even the primary beneficiaries of this so called recovery (financial institutions able to borrow money for free) are for the most part not hiring. Why? It’s a complex issue. For some it has to do with technological improvements, for others with outsourcing and even robotics.

Yet, the main issue remains. There is no “TRUE” economic growth and too much uncertainty to warrant any kind of a hiring binge. By anyone.

Then there is the big issue of 6.7% unemployment. The number excludes those who have given up looking for work and those who are underemployed (part time, but want full time). If you add both categories into the pool, the true unemployment number is likely to be between 15-20%. That is a massive problem for the economy that is “supposedly” back to its pre 2007 levels.

Is there a solution? I don’t see it. If anything, the situation is about to get a lot worse. As my stock market work clearly indicates we are on verge of a severe bear market and another economic recession.

This will do nothing but make the unemployment problem a lot worse.     

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The Secret Behind What Drives The Stock Market

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 17

Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics:

Reader’s Question: “The economy is doing very well right now and the fundamentals are good. What would be the catalyst for the bear market you talk about? ” – Peter. 

    • The secret behind what drives the stock market. 
    • Why most people get it wrong when it comes to forecasting.  
    • The natural cycles behind all economic and market developments. 
    • How this one little thing can double your portfolio performance virtually overnight. 

Please tweet me your questions @investwithalex

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NASA Announces Plans To Send The US Economy To The Moon

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Daily Ticker Writes: The economy is only going to get stronger

Zandi has a bullish outlook on the U.S. economy: he’s forecasting 3% GDP growth this year and 4% growth in 2015.

“The U.S. economy is set to experience much stronger growth as the middle of the decade approaches,” he writes in his latest macro outlook. “Businesses are highly profitable and very competitive, households have reduced debt and are saving more, and the banking system is well-capitalized and liquid.”

Zandi says better economic growth will also lead to more jobs. He estimates that 3 million new workers will be hired in 2015, up from 2.25 million in 2013 and 2012. That would mean the economy returns to full employment (a federal jobless rate of 5.5% to 6%) by 2016.

“The job market is headed in right direction,” Zandi says. “Broadly speaking the economy is performing steadily better.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

I am not sure who this Zandi, but one thing is for sure. If you are to believe his forecast you will be in for a beating. By the market that is.

The article above is garbage. Again, I am dumb founded that most economist and market practitioners don’t understand our current economic environment. Perhaps I was dropped on my head as a child a few too many times and see things differently. Thanks Mom!!!

Anyhow, the economic growth we see today is not real. It is driven by massive infusion of credit and speculation. That’s it. Further, there is no point to perpetuate any growth or forecast into the future. Since it is all “artificial”, it will vanish into thin air as soon as the speculative bubble driven by credit pops.

People always ask me what the catalyst will be for such an event. They are missing the point.  Typically there is no catalyst. Let me give you an example. Was there a catalyst for 2007-09 decline? NO.  The market simply started to go down in October of 2007, slowly at first, then accelerating later.  It was the stock market that drove the economy into the ground and not the other way around.  

Point being, for the most part there is no external catalyst. The market itself is the catalyst. It is the market that drives the fundamentals. Most people miss this very important point. As such, the market will go down when its ready to go down.

Based on my mathematical work that time is already upon us.   

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Stock Market Update, January 30th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

Daily Chart January 30, 2014

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position.

1/30/2014 – The roller coaster ride continues with the Dow Jones ending the day up +110 points or (+0.70%). With gap ups and downs galore.

It is definitely starting to feel like the volatility is coming back into the market. While VIX index is still sitting at relatively lows levels, the market is starting to exhibit signs….  Continue reading “Stock Market Update, January 30th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com”

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Brand New Real Estate Market Ponzi Scheme. Will You Buy In?

The New York Times Writes: Wall Street’s New Housing Bonanza

house of cards

Wall Street’s latest trillion-dollar idea involves slicing and dicing debt tied to single-family homes and selling the bonds to investors around the world.

That might sound a lot like the activities that at one point set off a global financial crisis. But there is a twist this time. Investment bankers and lawyers are now lining up to finance investors, from big private equity firms to plumbers and dentists moonlighting as landlords, who are buying up foreclosed houses and renting them out.

The latest company to test this emerging frontier in securitization is American Homes 4 Rent. The company talked to prospective investors at a conference in Las Vegas last week about selling securities tied to $500 million of debt, according to people briefed on the matter.

 “The investment and lending opportunities are immense and perhaps just beginning,” Jade Rahmani, a real estate analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, wrote in a recent report.

In just the last two years, large investors have bought as many as 200,000 single-family houses and are now renting them out, according to the K.B.W. report.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

by Alex Dvorkin 

If you were searching for evidence that our nationwide housing market recovery has been driven by speculators and massive credit, wonder no more.  Massive flood of capital from the FED’s into financial institutions has created all sorts of stupidities. This is one of them.

Trust me. Hedge funds providing massive amounts of capital “to plumbers and dentists moonlighting as landlords” is not as brilliant as it sounds.  As a matter of fact, it is fucking stupid. The only thing it will lead to is massive losses down the road for everyone involved. Big losses for hedge funds, for plumbers and dentists, for the FED, for the overall US Economy and for the average Joe with a house and a mortgage.

No one is talking about the elephant in the room.  Overall and after taking expenses associated with being a landlord into consideration, no one is making any money. There is no yield. Everyone is betting on capital appreciation to make a profit. I am afraid such capital appreciation will never arrive. Please see my Real Estate Market Top article here.

You also have to read between the lines to see the massive system wide risk. For instance, why the fuck would hedge funds who are awash with free cash from the FED invest in plumbers and dentists who would in turn become landlords?  For two reasons..

1. Everything is extremely overpriced. In bubble territory. The bond market, the stock market and even the real estate market.  They are investing in plumbers because there is nothing else left to invest in.

2. Everyone is playing the game of musical chairs, chasing performance. The money is FREE, so why not. Of course, we know what happens next. The music stops and the real estate sectors gets flushed down the toilet….again.

If this article doesn’t scream “market top” to you, I don’t know what will.  Don’t be fooled by Wall Street once again.  I am just curious to see what will happen to the real estate prices once “investors” decide that being a landlord sucks and begin dumping hundreds of thousands or perhaps millions of properties they have purchased. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 50-70% haircut from today’s real estate prices. Here is my valuation work.

The bottom line is, stay away from this Ponzi Scheme and don’t buy real estate over the next few years.  You can send me a gift basked later. 

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Brand New Real Estate Market Ponzi Scheme. Will You Buy In?

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TIMED VALUE is ready. Get Your Copy Today

3d Timed Value Cover 2

 

My investment book is finally ready. I am incredibly excited and proud of it. This is a one of a kind book that talks about my “Timed Value” style of investing and my secret mathematical approach to market timing. If you would be interested in learning more about the book please CLICK HERE to get 2 free chapters and further information.

Book summary…. 

Have you ever wondered if it was possible to generate outsized investment returns by timing the stock market and/or individual stocks with great precision?

If you have, this book is for you.  Financial media and most financial professionals would lead you to believe that such a task is impossible.  Yet, Timed Value challenges this traditional assumption head on by presenting a clear cut case that the stock market is not random,  on the contrary, it is precise.

The book starts by discussing the traditional aspects of “Value Investing”, its hidden secrets and problems.  The second part of the book shifts into the timing aspect by showing the reader the exact calculations needed in order to time the market or individual stocks with stunning accuracy.

Further, the author shows “HOW” once the stock market structure is understood in its entirety,  the market or individual stocks can be timed with great precision. Not by some arbitrary technique that cannot be replicated, but through the use of modern science and mathematics. Math doesn’t lie and when the market turns/reverses at exact mathematical points of force,  only one explanation remains. The market is not a randomly volatile instrument, but a mathematically precise tool that baffles the mind. 

As such, this “How & Why” stock market timing masterpiece is a must have book for any true market practitioner or those wanting to improve their overall returns. 

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How French Economic Policies Are Turning France Into a Fascist State

INS Writes: ‘Jews, Out of France!’

french nazi

Chilling video shows hundreds of anti-Semites on the march in Paris, illustrating the frightening rise of anti-Semitism in France.

It is nothing short of chilling.

A video, taken on the eve of International Holocaust Remembrance Day, shows masses of French protesters marching down a Paristhoroughfare chanting openly anti-Semitic slogans and calling on Jews to get out of France.

Chants include “Jews, France is not yours!” “Jews out of France” and “The story of the gas chambers is bull***!” At one point, in a show of raw, seething hatred, the crowd simply spits out the word “Jew, Jew, Jew!” 

Many of the marchers can be seen giving the “quenelle” inverted Nazi salute popularized by anti-Semitic comedian Dieudonne. The gesture is seen as a way for anti-Semites to give a Nazi salute without incurring the wrath of authorities – although one demonstrator can be seen giving a full-on Nazi salute as well.

Read The Rest Of The Article

I have written about France’s insane economic policies before in France Is Being Flushed Down The Toilet… Just As Predicted.  As such, it should come as no surprise that France is slowly turning into a Nazi Germany.  Maybe not to the extent, but to a degree everyone should be aware of.

If history teaches us anything, it is the economic structure and not the ideology, that leads to genocide and wars. It was the economic devastation that was the primary reason behind the rise of Nazi Germany in the early 1930’s.  Now, the French Socialist Party is hell bent of destroying French economy by taxing the rich and businesses to death. Subsequent economic suffering leads to social unrest and an eventual rise of hate and fascism. We see this very same type of a situation happening in Greece as well.  

Idiotic and uneducated masses always need someone to blame.  Based  on today’s news it looks as if the French hate the Jews. It is my only hope that all the Jews pick up and leave either for the US or Israel.  Just as their exodus devastated every corner of Russia’s economic and scientific community, France should have the privilege to suffer the same faith. Let this be a lesson to those trying to turn their market economies into socialist nanny states.

One thing is for sure, I won’t be visiting France anytime soon. Au revoir connards

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How French Economic Policies Are Turning France Into a Fascist State

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Stock Market Update, January 29th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

Daily Chart January 29, 2014

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

1/29/2014 – The market continued its initial bear market move with the Dow Jones being down -190 points or (-1.19%). 

Further, the market opened up another 100 point gap in the morning, erasing all of yesterdays gains and indicating that the market will eventually come back to close the gaps. No doubt, short term picture remains bearish while the long term picture remains bullish. Raising up questions if this is just a correction or a beginning of anticipated bear market. As my timing work showed, it is highly probable that the bull market topped out on December 31st and what we are witnessing now is the initial stage of the bear market. 

Again, even though the timing work confirms, we must wait for a technical confirmation that the bull market has indeed topped out before taking a short position. As such, I continue to maintain our long/hold position.  

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Why The Bear Market Is Already Here

CNBC Writes: ‘Huge amount of downside’ in S&P: Fleckenstein

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Bill Fleckenstein is not ready to call the top for the market just yet. But pointing to the S&P 500‘s valuation, he says that once stocks do start to fall, the decline could prove extremely painful.

“The [price-to-earnings ratio] is 16, 17 times earnings,” Fleckenstein said on Tuesday’s episode of “Futures Now.” “Why would you pay 16 times for an S&P company? I don’t care about where rates are, because rates are artificially suppressed. Why isn’t that worth 11 or 12 times? Just by that analysis, you’d be down by a quarter or 30 percent. So there’s a huge amount of downside.”

For Fleckenstein, a noted short seller who is famous for making money in the 2008 crash, the Federal Reserve‘s quantitative easing program has led investors to badly misprice stocks.

The Fed “printing money does not make the economy work, but it sometimes makes stocks go wild,” Fleckenstein said. “The reason the stock market did well last year is because the Fed printed $1 trillion.”

Read The Rest Of The Article

Bill is right on the money and while he is not ready to call the top, I am. In one of my previous posts MARKET TOP, I have identified December 31st, 2013 as the top of the bull run from the 2009 bottom.

It has also been my premise all along that fundamentals no longer matter.  Not in terms of identifying some sort of a new stock market environment, but as of right now.  The fundaments do matter a great deal under “normal” circumstances, yet normal circumstances have been greatly distorted by massive infusion of credit into our financial system. 

Credit that drove our stock market prices beyond any reasonable valuation and well above 2000 and 2007 tops. Sure, earnings, P/E ratios and other metrics matter.  Yet, most metrics we revert to today have been distorted by the same credit infusion. Leading to higher earnings and corporate profits. The bottom line is, when credit collapses so will all other metrics.  Do not be fooled, all of this is nothing but an illusion.

As I have said so many times before, my mathematical work shows that we are in for a 3 year bear market that will take us into the 2017 cyclical bear market bottom that started in 2000. Do you need more information and exact price/time targets? My premium subscription service will be available next Monday.  

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More Economic Insanity From The White House

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In his State of the Union address, President Obama announced that he is raising the minimum wage for new federal contract workers to $10.10 an hour. Challenging lawmakers and states to do the same. In essence, hoping that the his action will lead to an eventual rise in nationwide minimum wage.   

Here is the behind the scenes explanation of why he is doing it, why it will not work and why these idiotic economic policies by the FED and by the US Government are killing the US Economy.

Now, prior to understanding what is behind this move, you must be made aware of our overall economic environment. While it seems complex, it is quite easy.

As of right now the US Economy is being pushed and pulled by two opposite forces. Inflation and deflation. How is it possible?

Technically speaking we are in a deflationary environment. It is a naturally occurring cycle where the prices of goods and services go down due to over capacity, credit decline/collapse and stronger currency. If you think about it, deflation is great for both consumers and businesses.

Yet, our Federal Government and the FED’s are terrified of deflation. Why? Because they have a massive pile of debt that they have to pay back. A little over $17 Trillion.

The problem is, there is no way in hell they will be able to pay this debt pack under normal circumstances and no way in hell X 10, in a deflationary environment.

The only way out of this mess is through inflation or war. That is why the FEDs have been working overtime printing money and trying to inflate our debt (and our money) away. With mixed results.

Hence the reason behind our current deflationary and inflationary forces. Forcing some prices (ex: food) to go up while other prices to decline or collapse (ex: asset prices or services).

The bottom line is, the Government needs inflation at any cost. This brings us to President Obama’s pledge or push to increase nationwide minimum wage. Again, it has nothing to do with getting people out of poverty and everything to do with inflating away national debt and destroying the dollar.

Yet, unemployment (or true unemployment) remains high and in such an environment wages will have to stay low. No matter what President Obama does, he has very little pull in free markets and when there is a readily available oversupply of work force, wages will stay where they are.

The bigger issue here is blatant destruction of the US Economy and the US way of life through pure economic stupidity. What you are witnessing now is the end of the road and an eventual collapse of the house of cards that is the US Economy. 

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More Economic Insanity From The White House