InvestWithAlex.com 

Subscribe Today
My Account

Posts

Posted on

Japan’s Economy About To Collapse….Again?

I am not sure why it is so difficult for people to understand. Particularly, our Nobel Prize winning economists and charlatans throughout world governments. Let me spell it out.

YOU CANNOT PRINT YOUR WAY TO PROSPERITY.

Japan is a perfect illustration of that(see the article below). With Nikkei being roughly at the same level it was about 30 years ago, things are not looking good. Japan is a good case study of what not to do when facing “Deflation”. Instead of embracing it and letting defaults work themselves out of the financial system, Japan did everything in its power to keep zombie companies afloat. Cutting interest rates to zero, printing money, devaluing currency, inflation targeting, etc…. Today’s Abenomics is simply a continuation of fiscal insanity. Japan, once a great financial powerhouse, is now an empty shell.  

Too bad America is following Japan’s footsteps to a tee.  

japan market investwithalex

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!


Click here to subscribe to my mailing list

Japan’s Economy About To Collapse….Again? Google

 

Japan’s Economy Expands Less Than Initially Estimated

Japan’s economy expanded less than estimated in the fourth quarter and the current-account deficit widened to a record in January, highlighting risks to Abenomics as a sales-tax increase looms.

Gross domestic product grew an annualized 0.7 percent from the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office said today inTokyo, less than a preliminary estimate of 1 percent and a 0.9 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 20 economists. The current-account deficit widened to 1.59 trillion yen ($15.4 billion), a record in data back to 1985, the finance ministry said.

While growth is set to surge this quarter before the bump in the sales levy next month, a sentiment survey released today highlighted expectations for a sharp pullback when businesses and consumers face the higher burden. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is due to detail growth measures in June to sustain momentum, while economists forecast the Bank of Japan will add to unprecedented easing to keep the world’s third-biggest economy on track for a 2 percent inflation target.

“Capital spending remains weak and exports are not coming back to strengthen the recovery, and without support in these areas, Japan’s economy is going to contract significantly in the second quarter,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief economist at Itochu Corp. in Tokyo. “The negative effect from the sales tax rise could be worse than the BOJ and government expect.”

Net Creditor

The Topix index of shares fell for the first time in five days after growth missed estimates, closing down 0.8 percent. The yen traded at 103.15 per dollar at 3:11 p.m. in Tokyo, up 0.1 percent.

Business investment rose 0.8 percent from the previous quarter, revised down from a preliminary 1.3 percent increase, today’s data showed. Consumer spending climbed 0.4 percent, less than an initial estimate of a 0.5 percent gain.

Abe jump started the economy last year with reflationary policies dubbed Abenomics. Record easing by the BOJ helped to push the yen down 18 percent against the dollar last year, boosting corporate profits and fueling economic growth.

The government in December approved a 5.5 trillion yen extra budget to offset the higher sales levy, which will rise to 8 percent in April from 5 percent now.

Sentiment Falls

Companies and consumers have rushed to make purchases before April, with industrial production rising the most in January since June 2011 and retail sales gaining at the fastest pace since April 2012.

Businesses are bracing for a drop in economic activity after the sales tax rise, according to a survey released today by the Cabinet Office.

Economic expectations of people such as taxi drivers, supermarket managers and restaurant workers fell in February by the most since March 2011, when the economy was struck by a record earthquake and tsunami, the Economy Watchers survey showed.

The expectations index fell to 40 from 49 in January, reaching the lowest since April 2011 and erasing all the improvement made after Abe took office in December 2012.

The BOJ, which concludes a two-day board meeting tomorrow, will keep its main policy target of expanding the monetary base at a pace of 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen per year, according to 33 of 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. forecasts the central bank will add to its record stimulus tomorrow, predicting a boost in the target range to 80 trillion to 90 trillion yen.

Thirty-eight percent of 34 economists forecast the BOJ will add to easing by the end of June, according to the Bloomberg survey, which was conducted from Feb. 26 to March 4.

Prolonged deterioration in Japan’s current-account balance would erode the nation’s position as a net creditor, one of its main credit strengths, Moody’s Investors Service said last month in a report.

japan market investwithalex

Posted on

10 Amazing Quotes By Warren Buffett

This needs no introduction

  1. “I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.“
  2. “Rule No. 1: never lose money; rule No. 2: don’t forget rule No. 1”
  3. “Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.”
  4. “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
  5. “The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything–you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you’re a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!'”
  6. “Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls-Royce to get advice from those who take the subway.”
  7. “You don’t need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.”
  8. “After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”
  9. “Our approach is very much profiting from lack of change rather than from change. With Wrigley chewing gum, it’s the lack of change that appeals to me. I don’t think it is going to be hurt by the Internet. That’s the kind of business I like.”
  10. “Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.”

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!


Click here to subscribe to my mailing list

10 Amazing Quotes By Warren Buffett Google

Posted on

White House Predicts Growth. I Have A Bridge To Sell Them.

The White House is at it again. Selling sunshine and rainbows. Predicting strong economic growth and low unemployment for 2014, 2015 and beyond. Proving, once again, that they are either incompetent or liars. Now that I think about it, it’s probably both.

Listen, there absolutely no basis for this analysis. Yes, you can take our growth or credit driven economic recovery and perpetuate it into the future, but that’s not the reality. The reality here is as follows. The US Economy and it’s financial markets have been juiced up by massive infusion of credit into our financial system. It helped with the recovery while infusing a substantial amount of speculation into the system. With the stock market, the real estate market and the credit markets being, once again, incredibly distorted, the future is anything but bright.

The above mentioned markets will collapse, sooner rather than later, ushering in a severe recession and a bear market of 2014-2017. If you would be interested in knowing exactly when it is going to happen, please Click Here.   

american economic recovery investwithalex

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!


Click here to subscribe to my mailing list

White House Predicts Growth. I Have A Bridge To Sell Them. Google

White House has optimistic growth forecast for 2014, 2015

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The White House on Monday forecast more robust economic growth in 2014 than last year and a further pickup in the economy for 2015.

Under a White House projection, the U.S. economy is expected to expand by 3.1 percent this year, faster than last year’s 1.7 percent. Growth would pick up to 3.4 percent in 2015, the White House said.

The administration also forecast that unemployment would ease to an average of 6.9 percent in 2014. The jobless rate, which reached a high of 10 percent in 2009, fell to a five-year low of 6.6 percent in January.

Many economists say that the unemployment rate has dropped in part because many people have stopped looking for work. The U.S. labor force participation rate has fallen from over 66 percent before the start of the recession to 63 percent.

The administration’s 2014 growth projection was more optimistic than the 2.9 percent forecast of “Blue Chip” forecasters, and the 2.7 percent projection of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.

In contrast, the White House jobless rate forecast for the current year was more pessimistic than the 6.6 percent Blue Chip view and the 6.8 percent CBO projection.

Almost five years after the end of the recession, the economy is still growing modestly and the unemployment rate, while declining, has remained persistently high. The administration, mindful that President Barack Obama’s popularity has slipped in opinion polls and worried that Democrats could lose ground to Republicans in November elections, has emphasized an agenda focused on jobs and growth.

The White House pointed to the declining budget deficit and the improved housing market, as among factors pointing to the likelihood of stronger growth. White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Jason Furman said ramped up U.S. energy production, slowing health care costs, and advances in technology would also drive stronger economic performance.

But Obama, who has vowed to narrow the gap between the rich and poor, wants Congress to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour from $7.25 and spend more to help speed the economy. Last week he proposed a budget for fiscal 2015 that would spend $56 billion above the $1.014 trillion Congress agreed to in January.

The additional spending would fund education, training and defense projects, and would be offset by higher revenues obtained by closing tax loopholes that benefit wealthy people. White House economic forecasts are based on the assumption that Congress would pass the president’s proposal, but it was roundly rejected by most Republicans and is unlikely to be become law.

The White House also said in its report that economic recovery tends to be slower after a financial meltdown, such as the one triggered by the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble.

But some economists dispute that finding. The slow recovery from the most recent recession is an exception from what is normally a strong rebound after a financial crisis, economists at the Cleveland Federal Reserve wrote in 2012.

Posted on

Goldman Sachs Says “Sell Gold”. Is It Time To Load Up?

I am not a gold bug, not by any measure, but the yellow stuff is starting to look very attractive here. Particularly, when you take into consideration the fact that the US Economy and it’s financial markets will go through a severe recession where the FED will be forced, once again, to flood the market with cheap credit. Is gold in a simple technical bounce or is it signalling the trouble ahead? 

That is inconsequential for our purposes. What is important here is that the gold is reversing it’s technical downtrend. In all categories. Miners, ETFs and the metal itself. While the short term trend is already pointing up, if the gold is able to break above $1,400 over the next few months it will give us a clear indication that the trend has reversed. So, while the Goldman Sachs is telling you to “Sell”, I am telling you to put it on your watch list. The upside here can be significant. 

Gold bars

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!


Click here to subscribe to my mailing list

 

Goldman Sachs Says “Sell Gold”. Is It Time To Load Up?  Google

Gold Most Bullish Since 2012 as Goldman Sees Slump

Gold is getting more attractive to hedge-fund managers even as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the metal’s surprising rally this year will soon fizzle.

Hedge funds and other speculators expanded bets on higher prices for a fourth week in New York futures and are now the most bullish since December 2012, government data show. While gold is off to its best start in six years after topping $1,350 an ounce, Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie says chances are increasing that prices will slump to $1,000 for the first time since 2009.

This year’s 12 percent rally came amid signs of weakening U.S. economic growth and Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Investors who shunned the metal in 2013 are once more buying the biggest exchange-traded product backed by gold, with holdings poised for the first quarterly gain in a year. Hedge funds also are adding to bullish wagers on sugar, corn and coffee, driving combined wagers on a commodity rally to a record.

“The gains have been impressive,” said Chad Morganlander, a fund manager with Stifel Nicolaus & Co Inc. in New Jersey, which oversees about $150 billion of assets. “There’s been a perfect storm of geopolitical uncertainty as well as growth scares here in the U.S.”

Weekly Gains

Gold futures in New York climbed 1.3 percent last week, the eighth advance this year. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials rose 0.6 percent, while the MSCI All-Country World index of equities increased 0.3 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, slipped less than 0.1 percent and the Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index dropped 0.7 percent.

The net-long position in gold climbed 3.8 percent to 118,241 futures and options in the week ended March 4, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Short holdings declined 15 percent to 26,321, the lowest since October. Net-bullish holdings across 18 U.S.-traded commodities rose 9.7 percent to 1.59 million contracts, the most since the data begins in June 2006.

U.S. service industries, which range from health care to finance and make up almost 90 percent of the economy, grew last month at the slowest pace in four years, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed March 5. Holdings through gold ETPs rose in February for the first time since 2012. Assets in the SPDR (GLD) Gold Trust, the biggest such fund, are up 0.9 percent in 2014 after a 41 percent plunge last year that wiped $41.8 billion in value.

Billionaire Paulson

Billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson, who holds the biggest stake in SPDR, posted gains in his firm’s main strategies in February partly as bets on gold paid off.

Russia said it may cut off Ukraine’s gas supplies, and the U.S. has threatened more sanctions after authorizing financial restrictions last week. The escalating tension also drove up prices for energy and grains amid concern that supplies would be disrupted.

The turmoil in Ukraine doesn’t change Goldman’s bearish view on gold, and the recent weakness in the U.S. economy is probably weather driven, not “real deterioration,” said Currie, the bank’s head of commodities research. Lower mining costs mean it’s more probable than it was six months ago that prices will drop below $1,000, he said in an interview.

February Payrolls

American employers added more workers than projected in February, indicating the U.S. economy is starting to shake off the effects of the severe winter weather, government data showed March 7. The China Gold Association says demand in the nation is poised to drop to 250 metric tons this quarter, down 17 percent from a year earlier.

“Some kind of middle-ground solution in Ukraine is probably the case at some point,” said Rob Haworth, a Seattle-based senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees $115 billion. “For the two big commodities, oil and gold, we’ve probably seen relative highs for the next month. Once this geopolitical risk premium ebbs, I don’t see a lot of fundamental speculative support to push gold a lot higher.”

Bullish bets on crude oil rose 2.2 percent to 346,469 contracts as of March 4, the most ever in records going back to June 2006, government data show. West Texas Intermediate reached $105.22 a barrel in New York March 3, the highest since September. Russia is the biggest energy exporter.

Frigid Weather

Frigid weather in the U.S. boosted demand for heating fuel, while supplies of natural gas and coal will decline to six-year lows by the end of this month, government data show.

Speculators switched from a net-long position in copper to a net-short holding of 2,567 contracts. On March 7, futures tumbled 4.2 percent in New York, the biggest drop since December 2011. China’s first onshore bond-market default raised concern that demand will ebb in the top metals consumer.

While Goldman and Citigroup Inc. expected raw materials to drop this year, extreme weather drove rallies in everything from coffee to soybeans. Seventeen of the 24 commodities in the GSCI index climbed in 2014, and eight of them have posted gains of 10 percent or more.

A measure of speculative positions across 11 agricultural products rose 22 percent to 855,764 contracts, the CFTC data show. That’s the highest since September 2012.

Speculators almost tripled their net-long position in sugar to 64,740, the highest since December. Futures climbed for six straight weeks, the longest rally since 2011, amid drought in Brazil, the biggest grower and exporter.

Brazil Drought

The prolonged dry spell and excessive heat have also erased prospects for a record coffee crop in Brazil, the top producer. Prices for arabica beans, the variety favored by Seattle-based Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), surged 81 percent since December. Investors increased their net-long position to the highest since May 2011.

Bullish bets on corn swelled 81 percent to 158,122 contracts, the most in almost a year. Futures reached a six-month high in Chicago last week. On average, U.S. export sales in the past four weeks have gained fivefold from a year earlier. Urkaine’s escalating turmoil is signaling that grain buyers may be forced to purchase more American supplies, according to the U.S. Grains Council.

Investors’ hog holdings rose 6.3 percent to 69,642 contracts, the highest since November. Futures surged 32 percent this year, reaching a record March 5. A deadly hog virus continues to spread through the U.S., killing piglets and limiting the outlook for pork supplies.

“You had factors influencing commodities that weren’t expected, the weather with the energies and the grains, and then geopolitical risk with the gold and the grains,” Donald Selkin, who helps manage about $3 billion as chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York, said in a telephone interview. “Weather has been so crazy this year. The question is, can prices keep going up?”

Posted on

What You Ought To Know About The FED’s Plan To Collapse The Economy

Don’t get me wrong, I was always against the QE. However, now that they have got the patient thoroughly addicted to credit any attempt to withdraw it would have severe negative consequences on our financial markets and the overall US Economy. Right on schedule I might add. 

In a blunt comment, Charles Evans president of the Chicago FED made it as clear as one could that the FED will continue to cut its QE $10 Billion per meeting for the foreseeable future. While I applaud this step, the consequences of their action will have a devastating effect on our financial markets. As I illustrated a number of times before, the FED is a reactionary force that is always behind a ball. It will not be different this time around.

Now that they have distorted most of the markets through infusing over $1 Trillion in credit, taking away the proverbial punch ball would be identical to getting a strung out heroin addict to quit cold turkey.  Rest assured, a massive seizure for the US Economy and financial markets is in order. Our timing work confirms the same. 

z14

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!


Click here to subscribe to my mailing list

 

What You Ought To Know About The FED’s Plan To Collapse The Economy Google

COLUMBUS, Georgia (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will continue to trim its monthly asset purchases at a $10 billion pace, an influential Fed official said on Monday as he also detailed how the U.S. central bank might rewrite its plan for keeping interest rates low.

The blunt comments from Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed and among the most dovish U.S. policymakers, were perhaps the strongest indication yet that the Fed will keep cutting stimulus at each upcoming meeting, including one next week.

“We’re at a point now where we’re … moving away from purchasing assets, we’re tapering, and our balance sheet continues to be very large but we’re not going to add to it as much,” Evans told a gathering at Columbus State University.

“The last two meetings we reduced the purchase flow rate by $10 billion and we’re going to continue to do that,” he said flatly.

The Fed, responding to a broad drop in unemployment and a pick-up in economic growth, is now buying $65 billion in bonds each month to reduce longer-term borrowing costs and stimulate investment and hiring. The stimulus program started in 2012 and continued until December 2013, at a $85-billion pace.

With the bond buying winding down, the Fed’s more immediate challenge is re-writing a pledge to keep rates near zero until well after the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent. Because joblessness has fallen quickly to 6.7 percent, policymakers are debating how to adjust that pledge without giving the impression they will tighten policy any time soon.

The Fed could make the delicate change at a policy-setting meeting March 18-19, which will be Janet Yellen’s first as chair.

Evans is credited with conceiving the idea of tying interest rates to economic indicators such as unemployment and inflation. On Monday, he said the new guidance should reinforce that rates will stay low for “quite some time” and that much will depend on continued improvement in the labor market.

“It ought to be something that captures well the fact that (rates are) going to continue to be low well past the time that we change the language,” Evans told reporters after giving a speech.

“Tick through the different labor market indicators: payroll employment, unemployment, labor force, vacancies, job openings and things like that,” he continued. “We somehow want to capture that general improvement in labor market indicators, but that is hard.”

Evans added that the Fed will be accommodative “for really quite some time,” and added that he expects the first rate rise to come around early 2016.

Looking deeper into the future, he said the Fed would not have to sell the mortgage-based bonds it is now buying up, but could instead let them mature – an idea endorsed by other Fed policymakers.

After five years of purchases in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession, the central bank’s balance sheet has swollen to more than $4 trillion.

Posted on

The Stock Market Is Acting Exactly As It Should. Plus, Market Update

z15

3/10/2014 – A slow day with the Dow Jones ending the day with a loss of -34 points (-0.21%) and the Nasdaq losing -2 points (-0.04%). 

Thus far, our internal report “The Bear Market Of 2014-2017 Is Starting. Why, How & When” has clearly outlined the reasons and timing for the upcoming bear market. In addition, over the last few weeks I have introduced both the 17-Year and the 5-Year cycles further outlining exactly when the bear market in question is going to resume. While most market pundits forecast the continuation of the bull market, in reality, we find ourselves in a very dangerous and volatile period. Even if your are not aware of the fact, just yet.

Today, the market gapped down at the open, closing the gap from last Thursday while opening one up at around 16,450…indicating further upside. That bodes well for both our price and time targets presented over the weekend. In short, the market continues to do exactly what it is supposed to do based on our mathematical and timing work. 

If you would be interested in finding out exactly when and where this bull market is going to top out as well as the internal structure of the upcoming bear market (2014-2017), please Click Here. Plus, don’t forget to register for our Subscriber Lottery before March 15th. If you don’t, you will have to wait another two weeks.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!


Click here to subscribe to my mailing list

 

The Stock Market Is Acting Exactly As It Should. Plus, Market Update  Google

Posted on

California: Full Of Millionaires On Food Stamps?

Not quite, but the gap between the rich and the poor in the state continues to widen. This should not come as a surprise to anyone. California is a microcosm of the entire nation. 

While a lot of people blame California Governor Jerry Brown, they have got it all wrong. The only people to blame here are as follows. Greenspan, Bernanke and now Yellen. It was this group of charlatans that lowered interest rates into the negative territory and flooded the market with cheap credit every chance they got. With this credit being disproportionately available only to the rich, it is no wonder the income gap continues to widen. As the rich continue to speculate with cheap credit, enriching themselves in the process, the poor continue to suffer. With food stamp use in California increasing 18.4% since 2011. 

While most investors will brush this off as irrelevant, you shouldn’t. This is indicative of a much large systematic issue and a rotting underlying economy. This disparity cannot go for much longer. A healthy economy relies on all sectors of the economy performing well. Not just the rich. The bear market of 2014-2017 should make this more evident.  

rich in los angeles

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!


Click here to subscribe to my mailing list

 

California: Full Of Millionaires On Food Stamps? Google

California Beats U.S. in Millionaires, Food-Stamp Users

California Governor Jerry Brown, who decries a widening gulf between rich and poor, is campaigning for a fourth and final term presiding over a state that’s outpacing the U.S. in producing both millionaires and food-stamp recipients.

The number of households with more than $1 million in assets gained 3.6 percent since the Democrat took office in 2011, compared with 3.5 percent nationally,according to Phoenix Marketing International’s Global Wealth Monitor. Food-stamp use rose 18.2 percent in the period, almost twice the nation’s 9.4 percent, U.S. Agriculture Department data show.

Brown, 75, who signed a bill to raise California’s minimum wage to $10 an hour by 2016, goes before the state Democratic convention tomorrow unopposed after turning budget deficits into the largest surplus in more than a decade. California’s economic health improved more than 44 other states between the first quarter of 2011 and the second quarter of 2013, according to the Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States.

“We have an increase in poverty and high-end earners and a decrease in middle class jobs,” said Rob Lapsley, president of the California Business Roundtable, a Sacramento-based group that’s criticized the high cost of doing business in the state. “The governor recognizes this and is starting to address it.”

Photographer: Ken James/Bloomberg

Jerry Brown, governor of California, introduces his 2014-15 budget proposal at the… Read More

Poverty Increase

Even as its economy improves, the most populous U.S. state saw a broad measure of its poverty leading the nation at 23.8 percent in 2010-2012, and the state auditor has warned that the pension fund for 868,000 current and retired teachers may run out of money in 31 years. Term limits prohibit Brown, who served twice from 1975 to 1983, from seeking the governor’s office after this campaign.

Neel Kashkari, one of two Republicans vying for that party’s nomination for governor, has based much of his campaign around criticizing Brown’s record on poverty and unemployment, and California’s below-average performance in math and reading on the National Assessment of Educational Progress.

“Jerry Brown’s legacy is the destruction of the middle class,” Kashkari told reporters yesterday inSacramento. “He is the caretaker of the status quo.”

Kashkari, a former executive at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Pacific Investment Management Co., managed the U.S. Treasury’s $700 billion bank bailout, known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, in 2008 and early 2009. He and state Assemblyman Tim Donnelly, a Tea Party-backed Republican from San Bernardino County, have collected the most contributions to run against Brown, according to campaign finance filings.

Economy Critics

“There are two people in California who think that the state’s economy is worse than it was when Jerry Brown took office as governor,” said Dan Newman, a spokesman for Brown’s campaign. “Those are the two Republicans who happen to be running for governor.”

California’s unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent in January from 12.1 percent in January 2011, the month Brown took office. The decrease of 4 percentage points outpaced a 2.5 percentage point decline in the U.S. unemployment rate in the same period, to 6.6 percent from 9.1 percent. California was tied with Michigan for the fourth-highest jobless rate in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Assessing a governor’s performance based on three years of economic data is a tricky proposition, said Christopher Thornberg, principal of Beacon Economics LLC in Los Angeles.

“It’s kind of silly to think that the governor of any state, much less California, has that kind of impact on an economy,” Thornberg said by telephone.

‘Rationality, Centrism’

He said Brown has helped steer the Legislature, which is run by Democrats, toward “rationality and centrism.” Brown has been prudent on state spending, Thornberg said. The governor hasn’t taken on the more important task of restructuring California’s tax system, which depends heavily on incomes of high earners, he said.

California’s economic health improved 6.65 percent on the Bloomberg’s state index between the second quarters of 2012 and 2013, ranking fifth among the top eight. The index measures mortgage delinquencies, personal incomes, tax revenues, employment, home prices and stock values. Idaho was first at 8.33 percent, followed by Colorado, Michigan and Kansas.

“By coming in and taking the approach of good fiscal governance, the governor has put things on a stable path,” said Lapsley of the Business Roundtable. “But now, what you see across all economic data is more high-income earners with most of the new jobs being created in the service sector. That’s not a sustainable future for California.”

Millionaires Grow

California had 777,624 households with at least $1 million in assets in 2013, up from 750,686 in 2011, according to Rhinebeck, New York-based Phoenix Marketing. The Golden State had 1.9 million households that used food stamps in 2013, up from 1.6 million in 2011, according toAgriculture Department data.

Brown in 2012 led a successful campaign to increase taxes on earnings of more than $250,000 for seven years and to increase the state sales tax by 0.25 cent per dollar for four years. The money was to be earmarked for public schools.

Brown proposed spending $45.2 billion for kindergarten through 12th grades in the year beginning July 1, up 25 percent from $36.2 billion in his 2011 budget. Still, California continues to lag behind most states in the U.S. Education Department’s annual report card, the National Assessment of Educational Progress. California eighth graders outscored five other states inmathematics and six other states in reading in 2013, according to the assessment.

Social Services

As Brown boosted funding for schools, his budgets have been more generous for social services. Brown proposes spending $28.8 billion on health and human services in the year beginning July 1, up 36 percent from $21.1 billion in his first budget.

As Brown prepared to sign the minimum-wage measure in Los Angeles last September, he committed to narrowing the gap between the wealthy and underprivileged.

“It’s my goal and it’s my moral responsibility to do what I can to make our society more harmonious, to make our social fabric tighter and closer and to work toward a solidarity that every day appears to become more distant,” Brown said.

Posted on

Massive Inflation About To Hit?

In your dreams…. As CNBC Report below indicates “Perfect Storm For Inflation Could Rock The Market”. It shocks me how incompetent our financial media is. This should not come as a surprise since a pretty face, fake boobs and a good quoting/teleprompter reading skills seem to be the only job requirements.

We are already having massive inflation you mindless monkeys of CNBC. However, instead showing up in wages, goods or commodities it is showing up in the stock market and the real estate market. The FEDs have been pumping a tremendous amount of credit into our financial system since 2008, hoping it would spur inflation in every sector of the economy. To their surprise, that didn’t work. Instead, the money flowed towards the stock market and other speculative endeavors. Blowing up massive speculative bubbles in the process.

When the stock market continues its bear market of 2014-2017 you should see the evidence of the underlying deflation instead of inflation. Yes, we will eventually have massive inflation, but that day is way off in the future. First, a deflationary collapse is a must.     

zimbabwe-money

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!


Click here to subscribe to my mailing list

 

Massive Inflation About To Hit?  Google

Perfect storm for inflation could rock the market

As investors cheer the good news for job growth that came with the February employment report, they may be overlooking a troublesome dynamic: A tightening jobs market, in combination with rising commodity costs, could stir inflation, cutting into corporate profits and forcing the Federal Reserve to become more hawkish.

On Friday, the nonfarm payrolls measure showed an increase of 175,000 jobs in February, well above the weather-dampened expectations. And though the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7 percent from 6.6, the broadest measure of unemployment, the U-6, dropped slightly from 12.7 percent to 12.6 percent—the lowest reading since it was at that level in November 2008.

Since the U-6 counts all unemployed workers, plus marginally attached workers and workers employed part-time for economic reasons, it could be a better measure of the remaining supply in the labor market. The decrease in the U-6 could thus indicate that the “slack” in the labor force—which allows companies to hire more workers without paying more—is decreasing. Once the slack is gone, wage inflation tends to follow.

“Measuring slack is not an easy thing, but an unemployment rate of 6.7 tells you there’s a lot less slack than there used to be,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group. “The idea that all of the people who dropped out of the labor market will magically come back just doesn’t make sense—particularly for the low-end worker who is now enjoying a lot of government benefits. Therefore, the labor market is getting tighter than the Fed thinks.”

As a result, “the inflation trend is going to start moving higher. It’s not a single event that will happen—it’s a process. But it’s definitely worth watching,” he said.

(Read more: Jobs report signals higher interest rates ahead)

The other factor that could contribute to this trend is the recent rise in commodity prices. The CRB commodity index, a broad measure of prices, has risen some 10 percent this year. It’s at its highest level in over a year, due to tough agriculture conditions and winter weather issues that have sharply increased the prices of many commodities. More recently, the crisis in Ukraine seems to have boosted prices of commodities such as wheat and corn.

“Increasing commodity prices will drive a rise in inflation,” predicted Kathy Lien, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management. “It’s a natural reaction to the recent growth as well as the geopolitical uncertainly that is happening in the global economy.”

A broad measure of inflation for the month of February will come on Friday, when PPI-FD is released. This recently revamped version of the Producer Price Index tracks changes in the “final demand” prices paid to producers for goods and services. And because it looks at inflation being experienced by producers, rather than consumers, it is considered an early gauge of the extent to which inflation will be experienced by consumers.

The consensus estimate is for the PPI to show a 0.2 percent month-over-month percentage change for February, while the PPI with food and energy stripped out is expected to come in at just 0.1 percent, according to FactSet.

“Even with the change in methodology, you’re going to start to see the commodity prices moves in these numbers, potentially,” Boockvar said.

Higher commodity prices and faster-than-expected wage growth are actually the two risk factors that legendary bull Jeremy Siegel pointed out in an interview Tuesday in CNBC’s “Futures Now.” He warned that the labor market “could be tighter than we think,” which will create a serious dent in corporate earnings, given that companies will need to pay more to their workers. And the Wharton professor cautioned that if commodity prices continue to rise, then the Fed will need to rethink its dovish activities.

(Read more: Siegel: I’m a bull, but these two things worry me)

After all, the continuation of the Fed’s shrinking quantitative easing program and maintenance of its ultra-low federal funds target rate are premised on low inflation. One major concern about stimulative policies is always that they could spur inflation if used irresponsibly.

In fact, if inflation rises to 2 percent and the headline unemployment rate drops by just another 0.2 percent (to 6.5), then both parts of the Fed’s quantitative guidance regarding what will make the central bank raise the federal funds rate target will be satisfied. And a higher federal funds rate will likely mean higher bond yields across the board, potentially making equities less attractive by comparison.

“The broad consensus is that there’s no inflation. But if there’s one thing that mucks up Fed policy, it’s a faster-than-expected uptick in inflation,” Boockvar said. “If that happens, the Fed isn’t just behind the curve—they’re behind 10 curves.”

That’s why Brian Stutland of the Stutland Volatility Group will be watching PPI so closely, especially as it relates to gold, which is considered an inflation hedge.

“If you see the PPI number start to creep up, that’s maybe the only reason I start to become more bullish about gold,” Stutland said.

However, he adds that if the measure comes in low, as he expects, “that’s going to give me more confidence that the stock market is the place to invest right now.”

Posted on

Goldman Sachs Needs To Distribute Their Chinese Shares To Fools. Issues A Buy Recommendation

I write about China and their economic situation extensively. Please type in “China” into the search bar on the right to see all of the data. With it’s massive credit bubble, real estate bubble, lagging stock market, falling currency and a slew of other problems, Goldman Sachs believes right now is the great time to buy China. Certainty, with all the bad news and Chinese stock market “under performance” it might seem as if right now is a good time to buy China. After all, the god of investment banking, Goldman Sachs thinks so.  

Don’t be a fool. 

Goldman Sachs will be selling China while you are buying there idiotic forecast. With the US Bear Market and a severe recession of 2014-2017 starting now, it would be very difficult for the Chinese stock market to exhibit any sort of a bull market. Not impossible, but highly unlikely. Remember, Chinese credit collapse, defaults, real estate collapse and Yuan decline are all in early stages of development. So, read between the lines here and sell China.  

goldman sachs investwithalex2

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!


Click here to subscribe to my mailing list

 

Goldman Sachs Needs To Distribute Their Chinese Shares To Fools. Issues A Buy Recommendation Google

Bloomberg Reports: China Stocks Seen Rallying 24% at Goldman on Valuations

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is sticking with its recommendation to buy Chinese stocks, the biggest losers worldwide this year, after valuations fell to the lowest level in a decade versus global peers.

“Given how share prices have corrected and given where the valuations are, from a risk-reward standpoint we still think we can make a positive case on Chinese equities,” Kinger Lau, a strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in an interview inHong Kong on March 4. He predicts theHang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) will climb to 12,000 in the next 12 months, a 24 percent advance from last week’s close, versus the brokerage’s December forecast for the measure to reach 13,600 by the end of 2014.

The index of Chinese shares in Hong Kong lost 10 percent this year through last week, the most among 93 global benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg, as factory gauges pointed to a slowdown in the economy and concern grew that more companies will struggle to repay debt after the nation’s first onshore corporate bond default on March 7. The gauge trades at a 45 percent discount to the MSCI All-Country World Index, the most in a decade.

China’s leaders are trying to balance clampdowns on the shadow-banking industry and local-government debt with measures to support growth in the world’s second-largest economy.Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. (002506) became the first company to default in China after failing to pay full interest due last week on onshore bonds.

Relative Value

The Hang Seng China index is valued at 1.1 times net assets, the biggest discount since September 2003 to MSCI’s global index, which has a multiple of 2. The H-share measure slid 1.7 percent to 9,540.10 as of 1:41 p.m. in Hong Kong.

BlackRock Inc. today named Helen Zhu as head of China equities, luring the New York bank’s chief China equity strategist away from Goldman Sachs. The appointment takes effect on April 7 and Zhu may start managing funds later this year, BlackRock said in a statement. The New York-based firm is the world’s largest money manager, overseeing about $4.3 trillion.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp. and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. all trade at about the same level as their net assets, while Bank of China Ltd. has a price-to-book ratio of 0.8. The four lenders are the nation’s biggest by market value.

“Any clear and concrete policy measures in terms of dealing with shadow banking loans and local government debt would likely be positive catalysts for banks,” Lau said. “Valuations for Chinese banks have already priced in a very significant crisis scenario.”

Regulated Borrowing

Premier Li Keqiang told the National People’s Congress last week that China will develop a regulated regional borrowing mechanism, after local-government liabilities surged to 17.9 trillionyuan ($2.9 trillion) as of June 2013 from 10.7 trillion yuan at the end of 2010. Authorities have also started a cleanup of the $6 trillion shadow-banking industry and identified sectors of the economy in need of consolidation.

While Chinese banks’ non-performing loans rose by 28.5 billion yuan in the last quarter of 2013 to 592.1 billion yuan, the highest since September 2008, bad loans only accounted for 1 percent of total lending, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said Feb. 13.

Bank valuations currently imply a non-performing loan ratio of about 7 percent, Lau said.

Global Outlook

An improving global economic outlook may also be a catalyst for a rally in Chinese shares, Lau said, declining to name specific stocks.

The World Bank raised its 2014 growth forecasts for advanced nations in January to 2.2 percent from 2 percent, while cutting its estimates for developing nations to 5.3 percent from 5.6 percent. China is the world’s biggest exporter.

China last week retained a target for 7.5 percent growth in 2014 for the $9 trillion economy. Gross domestic product expanded 7.7 percent in 2013, the same pace as in 2012.

A purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics dropped to a seven-month low of 48.5, the companies said March 3. A similar gauge from the government with a larger sample size fell to 50.2, the lowest since June, a report showed March 1. Numbers above 50 signal expansion.

Overseas shipments unexpectedly declined 18.1 percent in February from a year earlier, customs data showed March 8, compared with analysts’ median estimate for a 7.5 percent increase. Producer prices fell 2 percent, the most since July, according to a statistics bureau report yesterday, extending the longest decline since 1999.

Share Slump

The Hang Seng China gauge has tumbled 16 percent since Noah Weisberger, a New York-based analyst at Goldman Sachs, predicted on Dec. 2 that the H-share measure would rally 18 percent by the end of 2014.

Goldman Sachs’s forecast formed part of a trade recommendation in which the bank told investors to buy Chinese stocks while selling copper as a bet that commodities would lag the rally in equities. Goldman Sachs called the trade its fourth top recommendation for 2014.