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The Secret To Beating The Market & The Street.

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Just give it up. You are not going to be able to do it. Why? Here is why…

“Virtu, a high tech, high frequency trader, makes markets in more than 10,000 securities across 210 exchanges. According to the Virtu S1, in 2013 it had revenues of $664.5 million and net income of $182 million. Virtu said it ”had only one losing trading day during the period depicted, a total of 1,238 trading days.”

Let that sink in for a second. These guys had 1 losing trading day over the last 5 years and that is who you are competing against. How is that possible? Well, in this particular case the market is rigged as Virtu is able to make a few pennies here and there with no risk. Eventually, those pennies add up to massive gains as the article above indicates. And that’s who you are competing against. Day in and day out. 

Well, that’s not entirely true. There are a few things you can do to come out on top. 

  1. Just invest an index fund and forget about it. Keep adding money on a fixed schedule, keep the cost low and you will come out way ahead. 
  2. Become a Warren Buffett type of a stock picker. Takes a lot of work, but anyone can do it. 
  3. Become a market timer. If you can predict what the stock market is going to do you going to be able to minimize risk while setting yourself up for over sized returns. 

While we used to do #2, we now specialize in #3. If you would like to learn more, please Click Here

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The Secret To Beating The Market & The Street Google

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Unprofitable IPOs Don’t Scare Investors…Great

As WSJ reports, 74% of all IPO’s today are not making any money and/or are not profitable. Guess when that happened before?  That’s right, right before the 2000 Nasdaq collapse. 

But don’t worry. It’s different this time. After all, the investors are “NOT Scared” this time around….whatever that means.  This is just another indication that the bear market is about to start and destroy bulls. Particularly, those playing in the IPO market. Earlier today I posted a good “Short List” that should get you started. 

Since January of this year I have argued that the Dow Jones topped out on December 31st 2013 at 16,588. We continue to maintain this position as it is based on our precise mathematical and timing work. With the Dow pushing this level again, it is up to you to figure out what happens next. However, if you would like an exact breakdown and bear market composition of (2014-2017) please Click Here.  

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Unprofitable IPOs Don’t Scare Investors…Great Google

A hot IPO market isn’t necessarily an optimistic development for the aging bull market.

Companies are going public at a pace reminiscent of the 1990s Internet heyday, a positive sign for young companies aiming to cash in on the rallying stock market. But analysts say the underlying mix of companies rushing to go public represents a warning sign for the stock rally.

Some 74% of companies that went public over the past six months weren’t profitable, the highest level since March 2000 when about four out of five new companies were money-losers, according to Jason Goepfert, founder of Sundial Capital Research and author of the SentimenTrader Daily Report. That same month, the Nasdaq Composite peaked before tumbling into a deep bear market as the dot-com bubble burst.

Since 1990, 42% of companies that have gone public, on average, haven’t been profitable, Mr. Goepfert says. In the early-to-mid 1990s less than 1/3 of these companies didn’t generate profits. This percentage rose through the tech bubble, fell afterward and rose again through the 2007 market peak before tumbling to as low as 15% in October 2009, seven months after the bear-market bottom.

In the past several years the percentage of unprofitable companies going public has hovered predominantly between 55% and 65%. It moved back above 70% early last month.

“This kind of behavior is troubling,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Not only do we have a willing public market ready to provide capital to these companies, but in many cases these are instances of professional investors selling their claims to a less-sophisticated public,” he added.

The list of newly minted money-losing public companies in the past six months includes microblogging platform Twitter Inc. and cybersecurity firm FireEye Inc.FEYE -0.08%Twitter shares have more than doubled off the IPO price; FireEye has more than quadrupled.

Investors don’t seem too perturbed by the trend. If anything, recent IPOs boast better returns than the broader market. The average U.S. IPO this year rose 19% from its debut through Feb. 28, and 5% from where it closed after its first day of trading, according to Dealogic. The S&P 500 index, meanwhile, has edged only slightly higher for the year.

To be sure, the IPO market has a long way to go before reaching tech-bubble levels. In the first two months of this year, 42 companies went public in the U.S., compared to 77 in the same period in 2000, according to Dealogic.

That’s why many stock investors aren’t willing to turn bearish right now.

In his weekly commentary, BlackRock strategist Russ Koesterich didn’t sound enamored with stocks, but he still considered them to be better than other alternatives.

“To start, we would say equities are no longer cheap and that stronger economic growth will be needed to drive earnings and prices higher,” he said. “But we do believe stock prices are more likely to head higher rather than lower from here,” Mr. Koesterich added, while cash investments “are effectively paying nothing, and traditional areas of the bond market offer little return after factoring in the effects of inflation and taxes.”

Even with a pricey stock market and an increasingly frothy IPO market, the fact that inflation and interest rates are low and the economy is gradually improving offers “sound arguments for overweighting stocks,” he says.

Morning MoneyBeat Daily Factoid: On this day in 1888, a brutal blizzard smacked the Northeast, resulting in a shutdown of communication and transportation lines along the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard. More than 400 people died from the storm.

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Ukraine Wants The US To Get Into A War With Russia

Why are we supporting these idiots again? Oh, right, freedom, liberty and justice for all. Especially the Ukrainians who would like nothing more but to get America involved into yet another war that would cost the lives of thousands of American soldiers. Right…..

The new and illegitimate Ukrainian government makes it very clear. They want the US to interfere militarily. I hope no one in our administration is even considering this action. Doing so would trigger a massive war with Russia. I guarantee you that. Plus, any war with Russia would be a little bit more difficult than blowing up a 1984 Toyota Pickup full of Taliban fighters. 

It is time the US stops meddling in the business of other countries and starts paying attention to the US Economy and our own future.  

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Ukraine forms new defense force, seeks Western help

KIEV/SEVASTOPOL (Reuters) – Ukraine’s interim leaders established a new National Guard on Tuesday and appealed to the United States and Britain for assistance against what they called Russian aggression in Crimea under a post-Cold War treaty.

Blaming their ousted predecessors for the weakness of their own armed forces, acting ministers told parliament Ukraine had as few as 6,000 combat-ready infantry and that the air force was outnumbered nearly 100 to 1 by Moscow’s superpower forces.

There was no let-up in the war of words, with the pro-Russian regional parliament in Crimea approving a declaration of independence that will take effect if people on the Black Sea peninsula vote to unite with Russia in a referendum on Sunday.

The national parliament in Kiev said it would dissolve the Crimean assembly if it did not cancel the plebiscite.

Viktor Yanukovich, whose overthrow last month after protests triggered the gravest crisis in Europe since the Cold War, insisted from his refuge in Russia that he was still Ukraine’s legitimate president and commander of its armed forces.

Lavrov: Russia has proposals to resolve Ukrainian  …Play video

Lavrov: Russia has proposals to resolve Ukrainian  …

Acting Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, who will visit the White House and United Nations Security Council this week, said a 1994 treaty under which Ukraine agreed to give up its Soviet nuclear weapons obliged Russia to remove troops from Crimea and also obliged Western powers to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty.

He said a failure to protect Ukraine would undermine efforts to persuade Iran or North Korea to forswear nuclear weapons as Kiev did 20 years ago. The terms of the Budapest Memorandum oblige Russia, Britain and the United States as guarantors to seek U.N. help for Ukraine if it faces attack by nuclear weapons.

DISARMAMENT PACT

Parliament passed a resolution calling on the United States and Britain, co-signatories with Russia of that treaty to “fulfill their obligations … and take all possible diplomatic, political, economic and military measures urgently to end the aggression and preserve the independence, sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine”.

NATO powers – and the authorities in Kiev – have made clear they want to avoid a military escalation with Moscow, which has denied its troops are behind the takeover of Crimea 10 days ago by separatist forces – a denial ridiculed by other governments.

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine: Discussion “over& …Play video

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine: Discussion "over" …

The European Union and United States have been preparing sanctions against Russia, though with some reluctance, especially in Europe, which values commercial ties with Moscow.

Direct diplomacy has stalled this week. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry turned down an invitation to Moscow until Russia modifies its stance. Ukrainian premier Yatsneniuk said he had been unable to reach either Russian President Vladimir Putin or Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev for the past five days.

Russia says the overthrow of Yanukovich was a coup backed by the West and that it has the right to defend the interests of the ethnic Russian majority in Crimea, a territory of two million that the Kremlin transferred from Russia to Ukraine at a time when the collapse of the Soviet state was unthinkable.

NATO AWACs surveillance planes were beginning flights over Poland and Romania to monitor events in Ukraine and the U.S. navy was preparing for exercises in the Black Sea with NATO allies Bulgaria and Romania over the next few days.

Yatseniuk, who said he supported efforts to set up a “contact group” of major powers to resolve the crisis, accused Russia of seeking to undermine the world security system:

Russians rally in Moscow to support annexation of  …Play video

Russians rally in Moscow to support annexation of  …

“This is not a two-sided conflict. These are actions by the Russian Federation aimed at undermining the system of global security,” he told parliament.

NATIONAL GUARD

Acting president Oleksander Turchinov said the National Security and Defence council had decided to raise a new National Guard among veterans. He accused Yanukovich of leaving the military in such a poor state that it had to be built “effectively from scratch”.

The acting defence minister said Ukraine had not been prepared for military confrontation with Russia. Having mobilized its forces, he said the country had only 6,000 combat-ready infantry out of a nominal infantry force of 41,000 -compared to over 200,000 Russian troops on its eastern borders.

Turchinov warned against provoking Russian action, saying that would play into Moscow’s hands. The National Guard, based on existing Interior Ministry forces, would “defend citizens from criminals and from internal or external aggression”.

View gallery

An armed man, believed to be Russian serviceman, is …

An armed man, believed to be Russian serviceman, is seen in an armoured military vehicle outside a U …

A partial mobilization would begin of volunteers drawn from those with previous military experience, he said.

Yatseniuk said the government was doing all it could to finance pay and equipment for the armed forces, but that Kiev needed help from Western guarantors of its security.

Western powers have been careful to note that Ukraine, not being a member of NATO, has no automatic claim on the alliance to defend it. But Yatseniuk said the principles of its 1994 nuclear disarmament pact entitled it to expect assistance.

“What does the current military aggression of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory mean?” he said.

“It means that a country which voluntarily gave up nuclear weapons, rejected nuclear status and received guarantees from the world’s leading countries is left defenseless and alone in the face of a nuclear state that is armed to the teeth.

“I say this to our Western partners: if you do not provide guarantees, which were signed in the Budapest Memorandum, then explain how you will persuade Iran or North Korea to give up their status as nuclear states.”

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George Soros: Banks Are Parasites….I agree.

In his new book “The Tragedy of the European Union” George Soros blasts the banking sector by calling them “parasites” who prevent real economic recovery. He goes on,  “35% of all corporate profits in the United Kingdom and the United States came from the financial sector. That’s absurd.” Mr. Soros is, of course, right on the money, but I will go even further than that. It’s not just the banks. It’s the collusion between the big banks/financials and the government. Until this cartel is broken up we will continue to have these boom/busts cycles where the primary driver behind economic growth (or perceived economic growth) is credit and speculation. 

Too bad. 

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George Soros: Banks Are Parasites….I agree.  Google

George Soros blasts ‘parasite’ banks

George Soros, the billionaire investor, has warned that little has changed since the 2008 crisis in the ‘parasite’ banking sector

George Soros, the billionaire investor, believes the banking sector is a “parasite” holding back the economic recovery and an “incestuous” relationship with regulators means little has been done to resolve the issues behind the 2008 crisis.

“The banking sector is acting as a parasite on the real economy,” Mr Soros said in his new book “The Tragedy of the European Union”.

“The profitability of the finance industry has been excessive. For a while 35pc of all corporate profits in the United Kingdom and the United States came from the financial sector. That’s absurd.”

Mr Soros outlined how the problems that caused the Eurozone economic crisis remain largely unresolved.

“Very little has been done to correct the excess leverage in the European banking system. The equity in the banks relative to their balance sheets is wafer thin, and that makes them very vulnerable.

“The issue of “too big to fail” has not been solved at all.”

The proposed solution of a European banking union does not address the underlying problems, Mr Soros adds.

“A real danger to the financial system is the incestuous relationship between national authorities and bank managements. France in particular is famous for its inspecteurs de finance, who end up running its major banks. Germany has its Landesbanken and Spain its caixas, which have unhealthy connections with provincial politicians.”

In his new book Mr Soros outlines, in a series of interviews with Dr. Gregor Peter Schmitz, how he believes the European Union is in danger of becoming a thing of the past unless its flawed structure is reformed.

The German economy at the regions heart could also be its biggest weakness.

“What was successful in Germany before the crisis will not be successful as a prescription for the rest of Europe in the years ahead.

“In German the word Schuld has a double meaning (both “blame” and “debt”). So it is natural (selbstverstandlich) to blame the debtor countries for their own misfortunes,

“Germany’s tone, is sometimes self-righteous and even hypocritical…. In 2003 Germany was among the first countries to break the eurozone rules. ”

The prospect of Germany leaving the eurozone is very real and it would have serious implications as the euro would depreciate sharply and deutsche mark would go through the roof, Germany would find out how painful it is to have an overvalued currency.

Mr Soros, who famously “broke the Bank of England” by betting against the pound during the 1992 sterling crash, talks candidly about his most successful trade.

“I have a clean conscience. The big events in which I participated would have occurred sooner or later, whether I speculated on them or not.”

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Get Your Shorts Ready

It’s not a secret. The stock market in a massive overvaluation bubble that is about to pop. Based on our mathematical and timing work it would be prudent to start getting your short positioning ready for what is to come. And I mean NOW. Below is list of stocks that I deem “highly overvalued and speculative”. It should be a good start. Typically, when the bear market starts such issues decline much faster and further than the overall market. Providing you with out-sized returns.  Good luck and don’t forget. Do you own research and always wait for a breakdown confirmation. 

ALKS, COG, TECH, PINC, AL, ILMN, CELG, RGLD, MA, DDD, V, GILD, SSYS, FLT, TRIP, SBAC, VRTX, AR, REGN, FB, TWTR, VEEV, NOW, N, DATA, TSLA, SPLK, WDAY  

If you would be interested in learning about when the bear market will start and it’s exact composition, please Click Here. 

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Get Your Shorts Ready  Google

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Japan’s Economy About To Collapse….Again?

I am not sure why it is so difficult for people to understand. Particularly, our Nobel Prize winning economists and charlatans throughout world governments. Let me spell it out.

YOU CANNOT PRINT YOUR WAY TO PROSPERITY.

Japan is a perfect illustration of that(see the article below). With Nikkei being roughly at the same level it was about 30 years ago, things are not looking good. Japan is a good case study of what not to do when facing “Deflation”. Instead of embracing it and letting defaults work themselves out of the financial system, Japan did everything in its power to keep zombie companies afloat. Cutting interest rates to zero, printing money, devaluing currency, inflation targeting, etc…. Today’s Abenomics is simply a continuation of fiscal insanity. Japan, once a great financial powerhouse, is now an empty shell.  

Too bad America is following Japan’s footsteps to a tee.  

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Japan’s Economy About To Collapse….Again? Google

 

Japan’s Economy Expands Less Than Initially Estimated

Japan’s economy expanded less than estimated in the fourth quarter and the current-account deficit widened to a record in January, highlighting risks to Abenomics as a sales-tax increase looms.

Gross domestic product grew an annualized 0.7 percent from the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office said today inTokyo, less than a preliminary estimate of 1 percent and a 0.9 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 20 economists. The current-account deficit widened to 1.59 trillion yen ($15.4 billion), a record in data back to 1985, the finance ministry said.

While growth is set to surge this quarter before the bump in the sales levy next month, a sentiment survey released today highlighted expectations for a sharp pullback when businesses and consumers face the higher burden. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is due to detail growth measures in June to sustain momentum, while economists forecast the Bank of Japan will add to unprecedented easing to keep the world’s third-biggest economy on track for a 2 percent inflation target.

“Capital spending remains weak and exports are not coming back to strengthen the recovery, and without support in these areas, Japan’s economy is going to contract significantly in the second quarter,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief economist at Itochu Corp. in Tokyo. “The negative effect from the sales tax rise could be worse than the BOJ and government expect.”

Net Creditor

The Topix index of shares fell for the first time in five days after growth missed estimates, closing down 0.8 percent. The yen traded at 103.15 per dollar at 3:11 p.m. in Tokyo, up 0.1 percent.

Business investment rose 0.8 percent from the previous quarter, revised down from a preliminary 1.3 percent increase, today’s data showed. Consumer spending climbed 0.4 percent, less than an initial estimate of a 0.5 percent gain.

Abe jump started the economy last year with reflationary policies dubbed Abenomics. Record easing by the BOJ helped to push the yen down 18 percent against the dollar last year, boosting corporate profits and fueling economic growth.

The government in December approved a 5.5 trillion yen extra budget to offset the higher sales levy, which will rise to 8 percent in April from 5 percent now.

Sentiment Falls

Companies and consumers have rushed to make purchases before April, with industrial production rising the most in January since June 2011 and retail sales gaining at the fastest pace since April 2012.

Businesses are bracing for a drop in economic activity after the sales tax rise, according to a survey released today by the Cabinet Office.

Economic expectations of people such as taxi drivers, supermarket managers and restaurant workers fell in February by the most since March 2011, when the economy was struck by a record earthquake and tsunami, the Economy Watchers survey showed.

The expectations index fell to 40 from 49 in January, reaching the lowest since April 2011 and erasing all the improvement made after Abe took office in December 2012.

The BOJ, which concludes a two-day board meeting tomorrow, will keep its main policy target of expanding the monetary base at a pace of 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen per year, according to 33 of 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. forecasts the central bank will add to its record stimulus tomorrow, predicting a boost in the target range to 80 trillion to 90 trillion yen.

Thirty-eight percent of 34 economists forecast the BOJ will add to easing by the end of June, according to the Bloomberg survey, which was conducted from Feb. 26 to March 4.

Prolonged deterioration in Japan’s current-account balance would erode the nation’s position as a net creditor, one of its main credit strengths, Moody’s Investors Service said last month in a report.

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10 Amazing Quotes By Warren Buffett

This needs no introduction

  1. “I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.“
  2. “Rule No. 1: never lose money; rule No. 2: don’t forget rule No. 1”
  3. “Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.”
  4. “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
  5. “The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything–you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you’re a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!'”
  6. “Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls-Royce to get advice from those who take the subway.”
  7. “You don’t need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.”
  8. “After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”
  9. “Our approach is very much profiting from lack of change rather than from change. With Wrigley chewing gum, it’s the lack of change that appeals to me. I don’t think it is going to be hurt by the Internet. That’s the kind of business I like.”
  10. “Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.”

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White House Predicts Growth. I Have A Bridge To Sell Them.

The White House is at it again. Selling sunshine and rainbows. Predicting strong economic growth and low unemployment for 2014, 2015 and beyond. Proving, once again, that they are either incompetent or liars. Now that I think about it, it’s probably both.

Listen, there absolutely no basis for this analysis. Yes, you can take our growth or credit driven economic recovery and perpetuate it into the future, but that’s not the reality. The reality here is as follows. The US Economy and it’s financial markets have been juiced up by massive infusion of credit into our financial system. It helped with the recovery while infusing a substantial amount of speculation into the system. With the stock market, the real estate market and the credit markets being, once again, incredibly distorted, the future is anything but bright.

The above mentioned markets will collapse, sooner rather than later, ushering in a severe recession and a bear market of 2014-2017. If you would be interested in knowing exactly when it is going to happen, please Click Here.   

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White House Predicts Growth. I Have A Bridge To Sell Them. Google

White House has optimistic growth forecast for 2014, 2015

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The White House on Monday forecast more robust economic growth in 2014 than last year and a further pickup in the economy for 2015.

Under a White House projection, the U.S. economy is expected to expand by 3.1 percent this year, faster than last year’s 1.7 percent. Growth would pick up to 3.4 percent in 2015, the White House said.

The administration also forecast that unemployment would ease to an average of 6.9 percent in 2014. The jobless rate, which reached a high of 10 percent in 2009, fell to a five-year low of 6.6 percent in January.

Many economists say that the unemployment rate has dropped in part because many people have stopped looking for work. The U.S. labor force participation rate has fallen from over 66 percent before the start of the recession to 63 percent.

The administration’s 2014 growth projection was more optimistic than the 2.9 percent forecast of “Blue Chip” forecasters, and the 2.7 percent projection of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.

In contrast, the White House jobless rate forecast for the current year was more pessimistic than the 6.6 percent Blue Chip view and the 6.8 percent CBO projection.

Almost five years after the end of the recession, the economy is still growing modestly and the unemployment rate, while declining, has remained persistently high. The administration, mindful that President Barack Obama’s popularity has slipped in opinion polls and worried that Democrats could lose ground to Republicans in November elections, has emphasized an agenda focused on jobs and growth.

The White House pointed to the declining budget deficit and the improved housing market, as among factors pointing to the likelihood of stronger growth. White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Jason Furman said ramped up U.S. energy production, slowing health care costs, and advances in technology would also drive stronger economic performance.

But Obama, who has vowed to narrow the gap between the rich and poor, wants Congress to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour from $7.25 and spend more to help speed the economy. Last week he proposed a budget for fiscal 2015 that would spend $56 billion above the $1.014 trillion Congress agreed to in January.

The additional spending would fund education, training and defense projects, and would be offset by higher revenues obtained by closing tax loopholes that benefit wealthy people. White House economic forecasts are based on the assumption that Congress would pass the president’s proposal, but it was roundly rejected by most Republicans and is unlikely to be become law.

The White House also said in its report that economic recovery tends to be slower after a financial meltdown, such as the one triggered by the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble.

But some economists dispute that finding. The slow recovery from the most recent recession is an exception from what is normally a strong rebound after a financial crisis, economists at the Cleveland Federal Reserve wrote in 2012.

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Goldman Sachs Says “Sell Gold”. Is It Time To Load Up?

I am not a gold bug, not by any measure, but the yellow stuff is starting to look very attractive here. Particularly, when you take into consideration the fact that the US Economy and it’s financial markets will go through a severe recession where the FED will be forced, once again, to flood the market with cheap credit. Is gold in a simple technical bounce or is it signalling the trouble ahead? 

That is inconsequential for our purposes. What is important here is that the gold is reversing it’s technical downtrend. In all categories. Miners, ETFs and the metal itself. While the short term trend is already pointing up, if the gold is able to break above $1,400 over the next few months it will give us a clear indication that the trend has reversed. So, while the Goldman Sachs is telling you to “Sell”, I am telling you to put it on your watch list. The upside here can be significant. 

Gold bars

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Goldman Sachs Says “Sell Gold”. Is It Time To Load Up?  Google

Gold Most Bullish Since 2012 as Goldman Sees Slump

Gold is getting more attractive to hedge-fund managers even as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the metal’s surprising rally this year will soon fizzle.

Hedge funds and other speculators expanded bets on higher prices for a fourth week in New York futures and are now the most bullish since December 2012, government data show. While gold is off to its best start in six years after topping $1,350 an ounce, Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie says chances are increasing that prices will slump to $1,000 for the first time since 2009.

This year’s 12 percent rally came amid signs of weakening U.S. economic growth and Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Investors who shunned the metal in 2013 are once more buying the biggest exchange-traded product backed by gold, with holdings poised for the first quarterly gain in a year. Hedge funds also are adding to bullish wagers on sugar, corn and coffee, driving combined wagers on a commodity rally to a record.

“The gains have been impressive,” said Chad Morganlander, a fund manager with Stifel Nicolaus & Co Inc. in New Jersey, which oversees about $150 billion of assets. “There’s been a perfect storm of geopolitical uncertainty as well as growth scares here in the U.S.”

Weekly Gains

Gold futures in New York climbed 1.3 percent last week, the eighth advance this year. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials rose 0.6 percent, while the MSCI All-Country World index of equities increased 0.3 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, slipped less than 0.1 percent and the Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index dropped 0.7 percent.

The net-long position in gold climbed 3.8 percent to 118,241 futures and options in the week ended March 4, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Short holdings declined 15 percent to 26,321, the lowest since October. Net-bullish holdings across 18 U.S.-traded commodities rose 9.7 percent to 1.59 million contracts, the most since the data begins in June 2006.

U.S. service industries, which range from health care to finance and make up almost 90 percent of the economy, grew last month at the slowest pace in four years, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed March 5. Holdings through gold ETPs rose in February for the first time since 2012. Assets in the SPDR (GLD) Gold Trust, the biggest such fund, are up 0.9 percent in 2014 after a 41 percent plunge last year that wiped $41.8 billion in value.

Billionaire Paulson

Billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson, who holds the biggest stake in SPDR, posted gains in his firm’s main strategies in February partly as bets on gold paid off.

Russia said it may cut off Ukraine’s gas supplies, and the U.S. has threatened more sanctions after authorizing financial restrictions last week. The escalating tension also drove up prices for energy and grains amid concern that supplies would be disrupted.

The turmoil in Ukraine doesn’t change Goldman’s bearish view on gold, and the recent weakness in the U.S. economy is probably weather driven, not “real deterioration,” said Currie, the bank’s head of commodities research. Lower mining costs mean it’s more probable than it was six months ago that prices will drop below $1,000, he said in an interview.

February Payrolls

American employers added more workers than projected in February, indicating the U.S. economy is starting to shake off the effects of the severe winter weather, government data showed March 7. The China Gold Association says demand in the nation is poised to drop to 250 metric tons this quarter, down 17 percent from a year earlier.

“Some kind of middle-ground solution in Ukraine is probably the case at some point,” said Rob Haworth, a Seattle-based senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees $115 billion. “For the two big commodities, oil and gold, we’ve probably seen relative highs for the next month. Once this geopolitical risk premium ebbs, I don’t see a lot of fundamental speculative support to push gold a lot higher.”

Bullish bets on crude oil rose 2.2 percent to 346,469 contracts as of March 4, the most ever in records going back to June 2006, government data show. West Texas Intermediate reached $105.22 a barrel in New York March 3, the highest since September. Russia is the biggest energy exporter.

Frigid Weather

Frigid weather in the U.S. boosted demand for heating fuel, while supplies of natural gas and coal will decline to six-year lows by the end of this month, government data show.

Speculators switched from a net-long position in copper to a net-short holding of 2,567 contracts. On March 7, futures tumbled 4.2 percent in New York, the biggest drop since December 2011. China’s first onshore bond-market default raised concern that demand will ebb in the top metals consumer.

While Goldman and Citigroup Inc. expected raw materials to drop this year, extreme weather drove rallies in everything from coffee to soybeans. Seventeen of the 24 commodities in the GSCI index climbed in 2014, and eight of them have posted gains of 10 percent or more.

A measure of speculative positions across 11 agricultural products rose 22 percent to 855,764 contracts, the CFTC data show. That’s the highest since September 2012.

Speculators almost tripled their net-long position in sugar to 64,740, the highest since December. Futures climbed for six straight weeks, the longest rally since 2011, amid drought in Brazil, the biggest grower and exporter.

Brazil Drought

The prolonged dry spell and excessive heat have also erased prospects for a record coffee crop in Brazil, the top producer. Prices for arabica beans, the variety favored by Seattle-based Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), surged 81 percent since December. Investors increased their net-long position to the highest since May 2011.

Bullish bets on corn swelled 81 percent to 158,122 contracts, the most in almost a year. Futures reached a six-month high in Chicago last week. On average, U.S. export sales in the past four weeks have gained fivefold from a year earlier. Urkaine’s escalating turmoil is signaling that grain buyers may be forced to purchase more American supplies, according to the U.S. Grains Council.

Investors’ hog holdings rose 6.3 percent to 69,642 contracts, the highest since November. Futures surged 32 percent this year, reaching a record March 5. A deadly hog virus continues to spread through the U.S., killing piglets and limiting the outlook for pork supplies.

“You had factors influencing commodities that weren’t expected, the weather with the energies and the grains, and then geopolitical risk with the gold and the grains,” Donald Selkin, who helps manage about $3 billion as chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York, said in a telephone interview. “Weather has been so crazy this year. The question is, can prices keep going up?”

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What You Ought To Know About The FED’s Plan To Collapse The Economy

Don’t get me wrong, I was always against the QE. However, now that they have got the patient thoroughly addicted to credit any attempt to withdraw it would have severe negative consequences on our financial markets and the overall US Economy. Right on schedule I might add. 

In a blunt comment, Charles Evans president of the Chicago FED made it as clear as one could that the FED will continue to cut its QE $10 Billion per meeting for the foreseeable future. While I applaud this step, the consequences of their action will have a devastating effect on our financial markets. As I illustrated a number of times before, the FED is a reactionary force that is always behind a ball. It will not be different this time around.

Now that they have distorted most of the markets through infusing over $1 Trillion in credit, taking away the proverbial punch ball would be identical to getting a strung out heroin addict to quit cold turkey.  Rest assured, a massive seizure for the US Economy and financial markets is in order. Our timing work confirms the same. 

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What You Ought To Know About The FED’s Plan To Collapse The Economy Google

COLUMBUS, Georgia (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will continue to trim its monthly asset purchases at a $10 billion pace, an influential Fed official said on Monday as he also detailed how the U.S. central bank might rewrite its plan for keeping interest rates low.

The blunt comments from Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed and among the most dovish U.S. policymakers, were perhaps the strongest indication yet that the Fed will keep cutting stimulus at each upcoming meeting, including one next week.

“We’re at a point now where we’re … moving away from purchasing assets, we’re tapering, and our balance sheet continues to be very large but we’re not going to add to it as much,” Evans told a gathering at Columbus State University.

“The last two meetings we reduced the purchase flow rate by $10 billion and we’re going to continue to do that,” he said flatly.

The Fed, responding to a broad drop in unemployment and a pick-up in economic growth, is now buying $65 billion in bonds each month to reduce longer-term borrowing costs and stimulate investment and hiring. The stimulus program started in 2012 and continued until December 2013, at a $85-billion pace.

With the bond buying winding down, the Fed’s more immediate challenge is re-writing a pledge to keep rates near zero until well after the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent. Because joblessness has fallen quickly to 6.7 percent, policymakers are debating how to adjust that pledge without giving the impression they will tighten policy any time soon.

The Fed could make the delicate change at a policy-setting meeting March 18-19, which will be Janet Yellen’s first as chair.

Evans is credited with conceiving the idea of tying interest rates to economic indicators such as unemployment and inflation. On Monday, he said the new guidance should reinforce that rates will stay low for “quite some time” and that much will depend on continued improvement in the labor market.

“It ought to be something that captures well the fact that (rates are) going to continue to be low well past the time that we change the language,” Evans told reporters after giving a speech.

“Tick through the different labor market indicators: payroll employment, unemployment, labor force, vacancies, job openings and things like that,” he continued. “We somehow want to capture that general improvement in labor market indicators, but that is hard.”

Evans added that the Fed will be accommodative “for really quite some time,” and added that he expects the first rate rise to come around early 2016.

Looking deeper into the future, he said the Fed would not have to sell the mortgage-based bonds it is now buying up, but could instead let them mature – an idea endorsed by other Fed policymakers.

After five years of purchases in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession, the central bank’s balance sheet has swollen to more than $4 trillion.