Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics: Shocking Truth Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know
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Reuters Writes: Fed’s Evans: Optimistic 2014 will be the year economy takes off
CORALVILLE, Iowa, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans on Wednesday said he’s optimistic that 2014 will finally be the year the economy “takes off,” adding that monetary policy must remain accommodative for it to do so.
Wait a second. The economy hasn’t “Taken Off” yet? I am confused. If you listen to the financial media “propaganda machine”, most investment advisors and money managers, even our own president, the economy is doing great. The stock market is up over 100% in the last 5 years and everyone is getting rich.
Of course, such statements are viewed as fallacy on the main street. For most people, things haven’t improved. If anything, they have gotten a lot worse. The reason you are seeing “perceived” improvements has nothing to do with the real economic growth and everything to do with speculation and corruption.
Yes, corruption. If you want someone to blame, there is only one place you need to point your finger. At the US Government and the FED. They have pumped our economy full of hot air in the form of credit and speculation.
That is not without cost. Eventually, our economy and our capital markets will have to readjust themselves. When they do, there will be hell to pay. As my earlier posts indicate, the bear market is about to start and when it does, we shall once again see who is swimming naked.
At least for me, only one mystery remains. Are the FED officials (as above) good liars or are they just plain stupid. Judging on what they did to the economy thus far, I am leaning towards the later.
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FED Economists…Stupid, Liars or Stupid Liars?
Interested in knowing the exact point (in both price and time) of the bear market start in 2014? You are in luck. Below is an excerpt from my upcoming book “Timed Value” telling you exactly when. While it was already published on this blog in November of 2013, I would like to bring your further attention to this portion of the book as it contains a useful forecast. Please note how accurate it has been since its original date of publication.
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As mentioned earlier, the 3-DV of EF today is 12,364. If we analyze the four 3-DVs above, we will soon find out that 3 different numbers closely resemble today’s value of 12,364. They are
All other 3-DVs and their derivatives either fall short or are outside the scope of our analysis. You will notice that the value AE is the closest one to our present value of 12,364. That basically means the market is not yet done moving up. It also means that once the value AE 13,542 is reached, it is highly probable that it will mark the turning point in the stock market.
Further, as of today the value EF consists of 2 input variables. Time Value of 7,742 trading hours and Price Value of 9,641 points. Let’s further assume that based on our research we believe that March of 2014 will be the top of the bull market and/or the move EF. This gives us an additional 80 trading days or 520 trading hours. By adding 520 trading hours to 7,742 trading hours we get all necessary information to make an accurate estimate of the bull market top.
In addition, we can estimate how much the market will move up between now and March of 2014. We simply adjust our 3-DV equation to look like this
SQRT (8,262^2 + X^2 ) = 13,542
When we solve the equation for X, the X = 10,730. This value represents the PRICE portion of the equation at the completion of the move. With today’s PRICE value being at 9,641 this means the market is likely to go up another 1,089 points (10,730 – 9,641) between today and March of 2014.
DOW PROJECTION: 16,097+1,089 = 17,186 in March of 2014
Think about this for a second and how powerful this simple calculation is. If you got your lattice structure figured out and/or you know the next 3-DV move, you can predict with 100% certainty exactly when the stock market will top out. Not only when, but exactly where. To the day and to the point. So, while everyone else is playing the guessing game of how long this bull market will continue, you know the answer well ahead of that turning point taking place. You know that you must hold for another 4 month in order to realize the maximum gain and then simply reverse to short position to benefit from the upcoming bear market decline. Amazing, isn’t it?
But what if the forecast above is incorrect?
As I have mention so many times before in this book, no analyst or investor should look at any forecast in absolutely certain terms. Until the lattice structure of the market is fully understood, there is always a possibility of being wrong. Unfortunately, understanding the lattice structure of the market is outside the scope of this book. It is too complex and dynamic to be explained in this relatively short publication. Volumes of work must be published before clarity could be obtained. Yet, any analyst willing to put in the work, should be able to determine the underlying structure.
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Attention: Would You Like To Know The Exact Date & Time Of The Bear Market Start? Find Out Now
Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics and is in direct response to one of my readers questions, “What should I do to prepare for and make money in the upcoming bear market? Assuming your forecast is correct.” – Alex West
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Bloombert TV: Faber: We Are in a Gigantic Financial Asset Bubble
This should come as no surprise to my readers. I tend to agree with Marc Faber’s point of view on this. The question is, when will the bubble pop?
Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your point of view, the bubble will not pop in a dramatic fashion some bears expect or anticipate. While the fundamental bearish stance is right on the money, based on my mathematical and timing work, the markets will not collapse. The market will decline to the tune of 40% over the next 3 years, but it will be a gradual (although at times volatile) process.
Now, it baffles my mind why most people don’t see this massive financial asset bubble. I am not entirely certain if it has anything to do with the financial media propaganda machine or simple human psychology. Perhaps a combination of both. Either way, if you don’t see the financial bubble in question I suggest you open your eyes and educate yourself. It will save you a lot of money.
Yet, do not wait too long. The bear market is about to start. Get yourself ready.
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Marc Faber Confirms, We Are In A Gigantic Financial Asset Bubble
Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position.
1/14/2014 – Just a normal day and nothing to write home about. After yesterday’s sell off the market opened with a gap up and kept going up. The day ended with the DOW being up +116 or (+0.71%). From our long term perspective there has been no change. I continue to advice to hold your long position for the time being. While over the short term the market might go down even further, my mathematical work indicates that the Bull market that started in March of 2009 has a LITTLE bit longer to go. Either way, we have to wait for a confirmation before reversing position.
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Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics. Why The Bear Market Will Start In 2014?
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Breakout Writes: Here’s why gold’s drop isn’t done yet
Alas some investors in the old yellow metal might consider the dog’s fate a decent alternative to what’s happened to their portfolios of late. After more than a decade of doing nothing but move higher annually, physical gold and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) got destroyed in 2013. For good measure the Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF (GDX) () got even more walloped, and has lost more than half its value over the last 52-weeks.
“Real interest rates are going up, the U.S. economy is improving, we’re in an environment where a return to normalcy is the course of the day. None of this is supportive of gold.”
Doll has some closing advice for gold investors: “If somebody has gold in a tiny little corner of their portfolio for insurance purposes, my hope for them is that gold doesn’t do well because everything else in their portfolio probably is going to do well. It’s a hedge. It’s insurance. Have a tiny corner, at most.”
Read The Rest Of The Article Here
I am not a Gold expert. I would be the first to admit that. Here my previous view on GOLD. However, given an overwhelmingly negative sentiment on the subject matter, it might be time to take another look.
Once again, fundamentally speaking there are too many variables for me to properly analyze gold. Also, while the technical picture remains bearish and weak, there are some signs of the bottom forming. More importantly, as the article above indicates, overwhelmingly negative sentiment on gold might lead to a good trading opportunity for those who would like to explore it further. Here is why….
The majority view on the overall economy, the stock market and inflation/deflation is fundamentally wrong. The reason the Gold is down so much might not have anything to do with the metal itself and everything to do with speculative bubble forming in all other asset classes. With everyone chasing performance in the stock market, gold is no longer viewed as a hedge against uncertainty. Of course, precisely at the wrong time. Should the bear market start in 2014 (as I have indicated), Gold should once again become “the hedge” against troubled market. When it does, the price is likely to appreciate significantly.
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The Secret Behind Gold’s Decline
A big down day for the market. With the Dow being down -179 or (-1.09%) for the day. The market continues to falter since the start of January. As I have mentioned in my earlier (weekly updates) there was a significant turning point on January 1st. Yet, this is not the beginning of the bear market I have predicted for 2014. The market is not done quit yet with the upswing. Current market action is the beginning of the top forming process and volatility. For the time being, it would be prudent to remain long while we wait for a confirmation that the bear market has indeed started.
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End Of Day Stock Market Update, January 13, 2014
Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics. Why Most People Keep Loosing Money In The Stock Market?
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