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Happy Birthday Mr. Bull Market

z11

The Dow Jones bottomed on March 6th, 2009 at 6,469 in a trauma type of a bottom and then surged higher. It has been surging higher ever since. I remember that day very well. The talking heads on CNBC had this “deer in the headlights scared look” wondering if they should run out to buy guns and canned tuna.

I was looking for something else. My mathematical and timing work showed that the market would bottom on March 7th around 6,550. When it was all said and done I was 1 day and 100 points away. Good enough. 

Today, the situation is reversed. Instead of looking for the bottom we are looking for the top. While most market pundits, financial advisers and money managers expect this bull market to continue for the foreseeable future, I will leave you with this…..

1924-1929, 1932-1937, 1961-1966, 1982-1987, 1994-2000, 2002-2007 – all bull markets that terminated EXACTLY at 5 years. 

Will it be the same for our 2009-2014 bull market, are we at a turning point? 

Yes, we are. If you need more information and if you need to know the exact structure of the upcoming bear market (2014-2017) please Click Here.  

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Happy Birthday Mr. Bull Market  Google

Crimea Votes To Join Russia. Now What?

Now everyone can go pound sand as they continue to throw tantrums. Russia is going to take this territory and no one will stop it.  Listen, at the end of the day this situation doesn’t really matter for the US Economy and it’s financial markets until and unless NATO gets involved. If that happens, there quite a strong possibility of further escalation and a possible war. It is only at that point that you will see an impact on our financial markets. 

What this situation does show is severe cracks forming between Russia and the US. With both sides and their respective media propaganda machines going into overdrive over Ukraine, the possibility of a new Cold War is quite high.

BTW, if you are wondering what the Russian media is saying. It boils down to the following points.

  • America, shut up and stop telling us what to do. Mind your own business. 
  • Americans are hypocrites. They have invaded Iraq and Afghanistan, killed hundreds of thousands of people and now they claim “high moral virtue”? Look in the mirror.  
  • If sanctions are implemented we will respond with force.  

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Crimea Votes To Join Russia. Now What? Google

pound sand investwithalex

SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine (Reuters) – Crimea’s parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum within 10 days on the decision in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula.

The sudden acceleration of moves to bring Crimea, which has an ethnic Russian majority and has effectively been seized by Russian forces, formally under Moscow’s rule came as European Union leaders gathered for an emergency summit to seek ways to pressure Russia to back down and accept mediation.

The Crimean parliament voted unanimously “to enter into the Russian Federation with the rights of a subject of the Russian Federation”.

The vice premier of Crimea, home to Russia’s Black Sea military base in Sevastopol, said a referendum on the status would take place on March 16. He said all state property would be “nationalized” and the Russian ruble could be adopted.

The announcement, which diplomats said could not have been made without Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval, raised the stakes in the most serious east-west confrontation since the end of the Cold War. Russia stocks fell and the ruble weakened further after the news.

Far from seeking a diplomatic way out, Putin appears to have chosen to create facts on the ground before the West can agree on more than token action against him.

EU leaders had been set to warn but not sanction Russia over its military intervention after Moscow rebuffed Western diplomatic efforts to persuade it to pull forces in Crimea, with a population of about 2 million, back to their bases. It was not immediately clear what impact the Crimean moves would have.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in a Twitter message: “We stand by a united and inclusive #Ukraine.”

View gallery

Crisis in Ukraine

A Ukrainian serviceman (L) stands next to an armed man, believed to be a Russian soldier, inside a U …

French President Francois Hollande told reporters on arrival at the summit: “There will be the strongest possible pressure on Russia to begin lowering the tension and in the pressure there is, of course, eventual recourse to sanctions.”

The new Ukrainian government has declared the referendum illegal and opened a criminal investigation against Crimean Prime Minister Sergei Askyonov, who was appointed in a closed-door session by the region’s parliament last week. The Ukrainian government does not recognize his authority or that of the parliament.

A Crimean parliament official said voters will be asked two questions: should Crimea be part of the Russian Federation and should Crimea return to an earlier constitution (1992) that gave the region more autonomy?

“If there weren’t constant threats from the current illegal Ukrainian authorities, maybe we would have taken a different path,” deputy parliament speaker Sergei Tsekov told reporters outside the parliament building in Crimea’s main city of Simferopol.

“I think there was an annexation of Crimea by Ukraine, if we are going to call things by their name. Because of this mood and feeling we took the decision to join Russia. I think we will feel much more comfortable there.”

TENSION HIGH

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov refused to meet his new Ukrainian counterpart or to launch a “contact group” to seek a solution to the crisis at talks in Paris on Wednesday despite arm-twisting by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and European colleagues. The two men will meet again in Rome on Thursday.

Tension was high in Crimea after a senior United Nations envoy was surrounded by a pro-Russian crowd and forced to get back on his plane and leave the country on Wednesday.

Crimeans await referendum seen as prelude for sove …Play video

Crimeans await referendum seen as prelude for sove …

The EU summit in Brussels seemed unlikely to adopt more than symbolic measures against Europe’s biggest gas supplier, because neither industrial powerhouse Germany nor financial center Britain is keen to start down that road.

The United States has said it is ready to impose sanctions such as visa bans, asset freezes on individual Russian officials and restrictions on business ties within days rather than weeks.

The short, informal EU summit will mostly be dedicated to displaying support for Ukraine’s new pro-Western government, represented by Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, who will attend even though Kiev is neither an EU member nor a recognized candidate for membership.

After meeting European Parliament President Martin Schulz, Yatseniuk appealed to Russia to respond to mediation efforts.

The European Commission announced an aid package of up to 11 billion euros ($15 billion) for Ukraine over the next couple of years provided it reaches a deal with the International Monetary Fund, entailing painful reforms like ending gas subsidies.

Diplomats said that at most, the 28-nation EU would condemn Russia’s so far bloodless seizure of the Black Sea province and suspend talks with Moscow on visa liberalization and economic cooperation, while threatening further measures if Putin does not accept mediation efforts soon.

They were expected to hold back from tougher steps both in hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough and out of fear of a tit-for-tat trade war with Russia, a major economic partner of Europe.

France has a deal to sell warships to Russia that it is so far not prepared to cancel, London’s banks have profited from facilitating Russian investment, and German companies have $22 billion invested in Russia.

View gallery

Crisis in Ukraine: The World Reacts

A woman walks past a Bulgarian communist-era monument painted by unknown people in Sofia March 5, 20 …

Before the summit, European members of the Group of Eight major economies will meet separately, diplomats said, in an apparent effort to coordinate positions towards Russia, due to host the next G8 summit in Olympic venue Sochi in June. They have so far stopped participating in preparatory meetings and Canada has said G7 countries may meet soon without Russia.

ILLEGITIMATE

The crisis began in November when Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, under strong Russian pressure, turned his back on a far reaching trade deal with the EU and accepted a $15 billion bailout from Moscow. That prompted three months of street protests leading to the overthrow of Yanukovich on February 22.

Moscow denounced the events as an illegitimate coup and refused to recognize the new Ukrainian authorities.

Russia kept the door ajar for more diplomacy on its own terms, announcing on Thursday a meeting of former Soviet states in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including Ukraine, for April 4 and saying it would be preceded by contacts between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats.

Lavrov said attempts by Western countries to take action over the Ukraine crisis via democracy watchdog OSCE and the NATO military alliance were not helpful.

In a move that may alarm some of Russia’s neighbors and the West, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced steps to ease handing out passports to native Russian speakers who have lived in Russia or the former Soviet Union.

Putin has cited the threat to Russian citizens to justify military action in both Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine now.

Few signs of progress on Ukraine as major powers m …Play video

Few signs of progress on Ukraine as major powers meet …

After a day of high-stakes diplomacy in Paris on Wednesday, Lavrov refused to talk to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchitsya, whose new government is not recognized by Moscow.

As he left the French Foreign Ministry, Lavrov was asked if he had met his Ukrainian counterpart. “Who is that?” the Russian minister asked.

He stuck to Putin’s line – ridiculed by the West – that Moscow does not command the troops without national insignia which have taken control of Crimea, besieging Ukrainian forces, and hence cannot order them back to bases.

Kerry said afterwards he had never expected to get Lavrov and Deshchitsya into the same room right away, but diplomats said France and Germany had tried to achieve that.

Western diplomats said there was still hope that once Lavrov had reported back to Putin, Russia would accept the idea of a “contact group” involving both Moscow and Kiev as well as the United States and European powers to seek a solution.

The European Union formally announced it had frozen the assets of ousted Ukrainian president Yanukovich and 17 other officials, including former prime minister Mykola Azarov, suspected of human rights violations and misuse of state funds.

“RUSSIA! RUSSIA!”

In an awkward coincidence as EU leaders were gathering in Brussels, German Economy Minister and Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel traveled to Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart and Putin.

Reflecting concern about how the long-planned trip might be seen in the midst of the Ukraine crisis, Gabriel dropped at the last minute plans to take along German industrialists with him. Germany has been accused in some quarters of soft-pedaling on sanctions in the light of its close economic ties to Russia.

Outside of Crimea, in eastern and southern cities that saw big pro-Russian demonstrations, the tide of public opinion appears to be turning in favor of Kiev.

Ukrainian police cleared pro-Moscow demonstrators who had been holed up in the regional parliament building in Donetsk and raised the Ukrainian flag where the Russian one had mostly been flying since Saturday.

Pro-Kiev demonstrations are now much larger than pro-Moscow ones in the city, home town of ousted leader Yanukovich.

Putin has said Russia reserves the right to intervene militarily in other areas of Ukraine if Russian interests or the lives of Russians are in danger.

Dropping diplomatic niceties on Wednesday, the U.S. State Department published a “fact sheet” entitled “President Putin’s Fiction: 10 False Claims about Ukraine.”

“As Russia spins a false narrative to justify its illegal actions in Ukraine, the world has not seen such startling Russian fiction since Dostoyevsky wrote, ‘The formula “two plus two equals five” is not without its attractions,'” the State Department said in the document.

Investor Intelligence Reports: All Bears Are Dead. Massive Bear Market About To Start?

percent bears investwithalex

Most of the bears in the stock market have been dealt with. Over the last few years they have been taken behind the dumpster and shot. As the Investor Intelligence chart shows (see chart inside)the % of bears today stands at 15%. The lowest it has been since the survey started. That’s right, even lower than 2000 and 2007 tops. Does that mean the bear market is about to start?

The bear market has already started. As my mathematical and timing work indicated, the Dow topped out on December 31st, 2013, ushering in the bear market that will last between 2014-2017. Click on the Bear Market Report to see a comprehensive report on why, how & when. If you would like to learn more about the exact dates, prices and turning points within the composition of this upcoming bear market please check us out HERE 

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Investor Intelligence Reports: All Bears Are Dead. Massive Bear Market About To Start? Google

EU Fools Throw Away $15 Billion. Just A Regular Day At The Office.

You got to love EU Bureaucratic fools. Their own Union is basically insolvent and on the verge of a collapse, yet they are doing their best to waist another $15 Billion on an illegitimate Ukrainian government that paid snipers to kill innocent people two weeks ago.

Last time I checked Cyprus and Greece were in technical default. With Italy and Spain not that far behind and with French socialist party doings its best to drive out businesses and high net worth individuals, Germany is the only sane country left. However, with EU throwing their money away, the question is……for how long? 

Also, get a load of this, “the EU package is designed to assist a committed, inclusive and reforms-oriented government in rebuilding a stable and prosperous future for Ukraine,” Don’t make me laugh EU. Say goodbye to your $15 Billion, on top of $1 Billion from the US. You will never see it again. 

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EU Fools Throw Away $15 Billion. Just A Regular Day At The Office.  Google

EU Fools

BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union is ready to give Ukraine 11 billion euros ($15 billion) in loans and grants over the coming years to help stabilize its economy, the head of the bloc’s executive arm said Wednesday.

The aid comes on top of $1 billion in energy subsidies the United States pledged Tuesday. It will help support Kiev while it negotiates a broad bailout program with the International Monetary Fund.

The EU package is “designed to assist a committed, inclusive and reforms-oriented government in rebuilding a stable and prosperous future for Ukraine,” Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said.

The aid will include 1.6 billion euros in loans and 1.4 billion euros in grants from the EU budget and at least 8 billion euros fresh credit from financial institutions run by or controlled by the EU and its member states, the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

The package foresees helping to modernize Ukraine’s gas transit system and providing technical assistance ranging from judicial reform to assistance in preparing elections, the Commission said. The package also calls for steps to accelerate achieving visa-free travel for Ukrainians to the 28-nation bloc.

That measure, if approved, would go down particularly badly in Moscow, since Russia has sought visa-free travel to Europe for its citizen for years. Suspending discussions on that project are among the measures EU leaders will consider at an emergency meeting Thursday to punish Russia over its occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.

 

Coincidentally, the headline figure of $15 billion for the EU’s aid package is the same amount that Russia was prepared to grant Ukraine in loans until the government of President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted last month.

Yanukovych took the Russian loans instead of a wide-ranging trade and economic agreement with the EU, a move that fuelled the protests that led to his ouster.

Barroso said that agreement was still on the table, and the EU is prepared to provisionally grant Ukraine the benefits deriving from it before a full ratification. Ukraine’s industrial and agricultural exporters could save some 900 million euros annually through reduced tariffs, the Commission said.

“The situation in Ukraine is a test of our capability and resolve to stabilize our neighborhood and to provide new opportunities for many, not just a few,” Barroso told reporters in Brussels. “We need to be up to this challenge.”

The timeline over which the EU funds and loans would be disbursed varied from a few hundred million euros this year to multi-billions between now and 2020. The details were left vague because the situation in Ukraine is still uncertain and negotiations between Kiev and the IMF are ongoing, EU officials said.

Most disbursements will likely hinge on the formation of a new Ukrainian government after elections in May and an agreement on wide-ranging reforms with the IMF. The fund will likely insist, among other things, on a currency devaluation and a sharp hike to natural gas prices, which Ukraine subsidizes heavily.

Ukraine estimates it needs $35 billion in international rescue loans over the next two years.

Putin To Germany: Do You Want To Use Firewood For Energy?

This is precisely why the EU will never pass any sort of a sanction against Russia. Doing so would collapse fragile EU economies. They rely way too much on Russian energy and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. 

Even though this hilarious video is a few years old it strikes at the heart of the matter. In it Putin tells German officials…..

“I don’t understand your energy policy. You are against our gas, yet you do not want to develop nuclear energy. What are you going  to use for energy? Firewood?  Guess what, you have to go and get that firewood from Siberia as well”.  (Everyone laughs).  

Will the US supply EU with natural gas, oil, etc…. if Russians decide to close the pipeline? Don’t make me laugh. And that is precisely why Putin can do whatever the hell he wants in Ukraine.  

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Putin To Germany: Do You Want To Use Firewood For Energy?  Google

Expect More Volatility. Plus, Stock Market Update

daily chart Feb 28, 2014

The market was consolidating today with the Dow Jones down -35 points (0.22%) and the Nasdaq up +6 points (0.14%). 

With relative calm on macroeconomic front the markets are searching for direction. Of course, we know what that direction is. Even though the market was calm today, I do not expect that trend to continue over the next two days. We have a number of interference patterns and inflection points arriving this Thursday and Friday. As such, I would expect the volatility to return. Perhaps it will rime with further developments in Ukraine, but for our purpose, it is irrelevant. As I have mention before, the next turning point is located at:

Date: XXXX
Price Target: XXXX

When this turning point is reached, I anticipate the market to…. XXXX……  Either way, we must be vigilant and risk averse here. Given anticipated volatility, a complex reversal and a number of significant points of force (in March alone),  it pays to be careful. Other than that, all positioning and analysis discussed over the last few days remain intact. All except one thing. 

XXXX

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. If you would like to learn exactly what the stock market is going to do over the long term as well as over the short term (including exact dates and prices), this would be a great place to start. 

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Expect More Volatility. Plus, Stock Market Update  Google

How Long Before All The High Flyers Crash Back To Earth

There is no shortage of stocks going absolutely crazy over the last couple of months. To the upside that is. With the likes Tesla, Google, Netflix, Green Mountain, Facebook, etc…exhibiting double and triple digit gains over the last 12 months.

Are these surges justified?

ABSOLUTELY NOT.  While is some cases the fundamentals justify the rise, for the majority of highly speculative issues the primary driver has been just that….speculation and too much cheap credit floating around. With the stock market in its final “blow off” phase and the bear market just around the corner the companies above present us with a wonderful shorting opportunity.But, not yet. When these highly speculative stocks finally break, they will do so at X market multiple, maximizing our returns. 

When?  Please check out our exact market timing forecasts here. We are almost there.  

rocket ship to the moon investiwthalex

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How Long Before All The High Flyers Crash Back To Earth Google

Guillotine Sales About To Surge

Combined wealth of the 85 richest people is equal to that of poorest 3.5 billion   

I am initiating coverage with a BUY recommendation on Guillotine International, Inc (HEADoff).  I believe the sales are about to take off as we enter the global recession and the bear market of 2014-2017. As more Americans lose their jobs and continue to suffer, the top 2% will continue to benefit enormously through tax breaks, tax loopholes and access to “free” credit otherwise unavailable to the general population.

We believe such a backdrop will force the average American family to turn off “American Idol” and “The Biggest Loser” and instead allocate most of their disposable income and attention towards the pursuit of pitchforks, guillotines and justice. As such, we anticipate the sales at Guillotine International to go through the roof. (We can all dream). 

I wrote about this before: Crazy Take a look Combined wealth of the 85 richest people is equal to that of poorest 3.5 billion   

guillotine

In a world of more than 7.1 billion people, only a lucky few are billionaires or multimillionaires, but their numbers are growing.

Knight Frank, a global property management firm, says in its latest Wealth Report that over the past decade the number of billionaires in the world grew 80% to 1,682 and the number of those with $30 million or more in net assets increased almost 60% to over 167,000. Their total assets: $20.1 trillion, or a quarter more than the economy of the U.S.

The U.S., not surprisingly, leads the population of the ultra-wealthy, followed by Japan and Germany. But the median wealth per capita in the U.S. is lower than 26 other countries — including Japan, the U.K.  and Finland, according to a recent Credit Suisse wealth report

“In America we always had this idea that you didn’t have dynastic wealth…[that] any American born who worked hard and played by the rules could do well,” says The Daily Ticker’s Aaron Task in the video above. “That’s what’s been changed. Now you have the 99% saying wages haven’t moved since the 1970s for the average American [and] since the financial crisis a disproportionate amount of the recovery’s gains have gone to the wealthiest 2% of the people.”

Included in that 2% is Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of the Blackstone Group, who is paying a 15% tax rate  on the $452.7 million he made last year because those funds are taxed as “carried interest” rather than income.

“All these policies are tilted in favor of the people who are already the wealthiest,” says Task. “That’s where the inequality really becomes a problem.” 

So what’s to be done?

Steve Rattner of Willett Advisors LLC, told The Daily Ticker that fundamental changes are needed in U.S. tax policy, education, infrastructure, investment, and training, or else there’s the risk of civil unrest and “more punitive legislation,” that could target the wealthy.

Ralph Nader, the consumer advocate and former third-party presidential candidate, is pushing for a billionaire to run for U.S. president because he or she could be truly be independent of the pressures to raise money for a campaign and therefore serve the greater good.

Task says people need to vote for politicians who will serve their interests as opposed to “special interests.”

But Phil Pearlman, Yahoo Finance’s interactive editor says, “We’ll go out and vote when it’s bad enough.”

Follow The Daily Ticker on Facebook and Twitter!

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Guillotine Sales About To Surge  Google

As The US Continues To Piss On Russia, How Long Before Ukraine Reignites?

If you have been reading this blog, you know that I have correctly predicted both the Russian invasion of the Ukraine as well as the subsequent calm on Tuesday. Before it had happened. I ended my analysis with one statement. For as long as the US Administration and the EU Bureaucrats stop pressuring or going after Russia and/or Putin, things will die down. 

Not to be outdone by anyone, today Hillary Clinton decided to throw her panties in the ring by comparing Putin to, what else,  Hitler of course.

Trust me when I tell you this. Nothing will infuriate Putin more than when a high ranking ex member of Obama Administration and a presidential hopeful calls him a Hitler.  If this sort of behavior from the US continues Putin will have no choice but to demonstrate his “manhood”, “power” and “the size of his co@$” by invading Ukraine or worse. I am not sure why this is so hard for everyone to understand. 

Then again, maybe that is exactly what our military industrial complex wants.  

hillary_clinton

Speaking at a fundraiser in California, Clinton drew a parallel between Adolf Hitler’s rhetoric that ethnic Germans living in neighbouring countries he later invaded were oppressed, and Vladimir Putin’s claim that ethnic Russians in Ukraine are under threat by nationalists and radicals.

The former US secretary of State, who is widely expected to run for US president in 2016, particularly criticised Moscow over the issuing of passports to ethnic Russians living in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.

“Now if this sounds familiar, it’s what Hitler did back in the 30s,” Clinton said, the Long Beach Press-Telegram reported.

“All the Germans that were … the ethnic Germans, the Germans by ancestry who were in places like Czechoslovakia and Romania and other places, Hitler kept saying they’re not being treated right. I must go and protect my people and that’s what’s gotten everybody so nervous.”

Clinton, 66, made the comment at a $1,500-a-head fundraiser for the Boys and Girls Club of Long Beach.

She also said that Putin believes “his mission is to restore Russian greatness.”

“When he looks at Ukraine, he sees a place that he believes is by its very nature part of Mother Russia,” Clinton said.

Harry Saltzgaver, who attended the event, told Buzzfeed that Clinton added there was “no indication that Putin is as irrational as the instigator of World War II.”

Earlier this week, Vladimir Putin was accused of acting like Hitler in 1930s also by the former foreign minister of the Czech Republic, Karel Schwarzenberg.

“Since he wanted to invade Crimea, he needed a pretext and said that his compatriots were oppressed,” said Schwarzenberg.”When Hitler wanted to annex Austria, he said that Germans there were oppressed.”

Putin has claimed it would be legitimate for Russia to use force to protect its interests in eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

“We have received a request from a legitimate president,” Putin told a press conference. “Also we have historical and cultural ties with those people. And this is a humanitarian mission. It’s not our goal to conquer somebody.”

He said deploying the military would be the last resort but and denied that troops without insignia who took over strategic locations in Crimea are Russian.

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As The US Continues To Piss On Russia, How Long Before Ukraine Reignites?  Google