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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 8)

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Continuation of part 7

But what if the forecast above is incorrect?

As I have mention so many times before in this book, no analyst or investor should look at any forecast in absolutely certain terms.  Until the lattice structure of the market is fully understood, there is always a possibility of being wrong. Unfortunately, understanding the lattice structure of the market is outside the scope of this book.  It is too complex and dynamic to be explained in this relatively short book. Volumes of work must be published before clarity could be obtained. Yet, any analyst willing to put in the work, should be able to determine the underlying structure.

For those unwilling to do the work there are a number of available shortcuts. They are….

Shortcut One:  3 Dimensional Space Triangulation.

Earlier in this book I have mentioned that 3-DV exist on multiple time frames. From hourly to yearly to decades to centuries.  At any given time there are hundreds of various length 3-DV tracing out market points of force (turning points). What I have found in my research over the years is that major turning points in the stock market or individual stocks are never represented by only one 3-DV. In most cases, such points are represented by a number of different 3-DV coming together at a singular turning point. Once again, these multiple 3-DV can range from hourly to centuries long.

Let me give you an example.  As you know, when 3-DV of any length moves in 3-Dimensional space they tend to trace out the circumference of a circle. The radius of a circle represents maximum reach of any given 3-DV. In other words, it represents all possible points on the two dimensional chart where the 3-DV in question can terminate its move.

Further, let’s assume that we are studying five 3-DVs from various points on the stock market chart that have similar termination points. By drawing -OR – calculating their circumferences in either 3-Dimensional space or on 2-Dimensional stock market chart, we will be able to see where those circumferences intersected.  As a rule of thumb, if we have multiple intersection at a singular point of time and price, the probability is high that such point will be a major turning point.  The probability increases further if the market is heading towards such a point.

In simple terms, triangulation allows us to figure out high probability turning points by identifying at what points multiple 3-DVs come together.  By combining this type of analysis with 3-DV lattice structure above we are able to either confirm or increase probability of a turning point.

Let’s take a look at the real stock market example for clarification.  

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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 8)

Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 7)

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Continuation of part 6

Step #2: Perform analysis of 3-DVs and its derivatives from each point.

For example, let’s take a look at point E.  At point E we can work with 4 different 3-DVs and their derivatives. They include  DE, BE, CE and AE.  Meaning, it is highly probable that EF will be equal to the four 3-DVs above and/or their derivatives.

As mentioned earlier, the 3-DV of EF today is 12,364. If we analyze the four 3-DVs above, we will soon find out that 3 different numbers closely resemble today’s value of 12,364. They are

  • DE 14,094
  • AE 13,542
  • CE 13,873

All other 3-DVs and their derivatives either fall short or are outside the scope of our analysis. You will notice that the value AE is the closest one to our present value of 12,364. That basically means the market is not yet done moving up.  It also means that once the value AE 13,542 is reached, it is highly probable that it will mark the turning point in the stock market.

Further,  as of today the value EF consists of 2 input variables. Time Value of 7,742 trading hours and Price Value of 9,641 points.  Let’s further assume that based on our research we believe that March of 2014 will be the top of the bull market and/or the move EF.  This gives us an additional 80 trading days or 520 trading hours.  By adding 520 trading hours to 7,742 trading hours we get all necessary information to make an accurate estimate of the bull market top.

In addition,  we can estimate how much the market will move up between now and March of 2014. We simply adjust our 3-DV equation to look like this

SQRT (8,262^2 + X^2 ) = 13,542

When we solve the equation for X, the X = 10,730. This value represents the PRICE portion of the equation at the completion of the move.  With today’s PRICE value being at 9,641 this means the market is likely to go up another 1,089 points (10,730 – 9,641) between today and March of 2014.

Think about this for a second and how powerful this simple calculation is. If you got your lattice structure figured out and/or you know the next 3-DV move,  you can predict with 100% certainty exactly when the stock market will top out. Not only when, but exactly where. To the day and to the point. So, while everyone else is playing the guessing game of how long this bull market will continue, you know the answer well ahead of that turning point taking place.  You know that you must hold for another 4 months in order to realize the maximum gain and then simply reverse to short position to benefit from the upcoming bear market decline.  Amazing, isn’t it?

But what if the forecast above is incorrect?

To Be Continued…..

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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 7)

Warning: The Most Important Financial Story No One Is Talking About

10 Year Note Chart

 

The chart above doesn’t look like much, but it is hugely important. It is the chart for a 10 Year Treasury Note and I cannot stress enough just how important it is. There are 3 things here. 

1. My timing work shows that what you are looking at is a multi-generational bottom in interest rates. It is unlikely that we see interest rates this low over the next 50-100 years. Stock market and interest rate history teaches us that much. 

2. While it doesn’t look like much, this benchmark interest rate moved from 1.43% in July of 2012 to about 2.80% today. That is a 100% increase in interest rates in just 12 months. That is a massive move by any measure and the largest of its kind in nearly 3 decades.    

3. The interest rates are just now starting their climb upwards. The trend has shifted and will continue upward for at least a few more decades. It will not be a straight line move and it will not be fast, but do anticipate a gradual increase from this point on. My timing work shows that these rates should accelerate to the upside after 2016 due to upcoming inflation. 

What does it all mean? In simple terms, this will have a huge negative impact on the overall US and Global economy, it will destroy the US housing bubble once and for all, it will suck down emerging markets (which is already happening). 

Why? Because the all of the above mentioned markets rely purely on extremely cheap finance and high liquidity. Once you take that away, the markets and the overall economy will start going down fast.

What should you do? This is what I would do as of today. 

  • Start liquidating your stock market portfolio. You can start buying back at much cheaper prices at 2016 bottom.
  • Lock in any loans you have (mortgage, business, personal) at current rates. 
  • Sell all of your real estate holdings if it makes financial sense and satisfies all of your lifestyle choices. Real estate will get completely crushed over the next 10 years.
  • Accumulate cash and keep it safe in short term treasury(1-6 month maturity). Keep rolling it over as interest rates increase.  When the next bottom in the stock market shows up (in 2016)….Go All In. 

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The Secret Behind Upcoming European Union Breakup

Map-of-Europe

Bloomberg writes: German Jobless Unexpectedly Rises Even as Economy Grows

German unemployment unexpectedly increased in August for the first time in three months even as Europe’s largest economy expands.

The number of people out of work increased by a seasonally adjusted 7,000 to 2.95 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists predicted a decline by 5,000, according to the median of 25 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The adjusted jobless rate stayed at 6.8 percent, near a two-decade low.

The economy in Germany, which faces elections next month, is forecast to slow after growth was bolstered last quarter by a rebound from a colder-than-usual winter that curbed output. While the euro area, the nation’s largest export market, has emerged from its longest-ever recession, some companies are still cutting jobs as countries in the periphery of the region struggle to recover.

“If data that signal the economy will gather pace in the second half of the year are to be believed, there’s a good possibility that employment will increase and unemployment will drop next year,” said Jens Kramer, an economist at NordLB in Hanover. “In the euro area, there’s at least hope that the worst is behind us.”

I think the best way to look at Europe at this point in time in from Macro Economic perspective. 

Obviously Germany is by far the strongest economy in the region and the only reason European Union hasn’t collapsed yet. The rest of the countries there are in a big time mess. 

I do not believe the worst is yet over for Europe. Not by a long shot. The only reason you are seeing an improvement and better data coming out of Germany is the same reason you see it in the US. Massive amounts of liquidity in the system. 

What is quite shocking is how weak the recovery has been in the European Union region even though record amounts of capital were deployed to sustain it.

What will happen next is quite simple. 

As interest rates continue to increase on the global scale, as the US Stock market begins to go down, as emerging markets continue their decline….there won’t be any reason for European Union to recover. As a matter of fact, quite the opposite. As all stimulus disappears, expect most of the European Union to fall back into a depression environment.  

An eventual break up of the European Union is not out of the question. As a matter of fact, I would be surprised if it doesn’t happen over the next 5 years. 

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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 6)

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Continuation of part 5

7. The move AB was an exact square and continuation of another 3-DV prior to 1994 bottom. This move was a perfect square. The market moved exactly 8,296 points in exactly 8,437 trading hours. Giving us a 3-DV of 11,832.  This 3-DV was identical to the actual top set on January 14th, 2000 of 11,854. Proving, once again, how accurate this analysis can be.  

8.  Finally, the move BC was the derivative from the move AB. If you divide 11,832 by the square root of 3 you end up with a value of 6,831. With move BC having a 3-DV of 6,840, it gives us 0% variance.  As 2003 secondary bottom was approaching an analyst using 3-DV analysis would be very well aware that a turning point was coming up. Using the techniques above the analyst would be about 10 trading points away from the actual bottom.

This concludes the analysis and explanation of the 3-DV moves above.  The explanation above went over every single value and showed you how they can be used in order to predict the markets with great accuracy. Going further and by understanding the lattice structure within the market you would be able to know precise angles and directional moves of any upcoming market or individual stock moves.  For the first time attaining the ability to predict the markets in both time and price. On any time frame.  From daily resolution to decades from now.  

This section is written on November 29th,  2013 with the DOW at 16,097

If you follow my daily blog you are very well aware that my mathematical work is predicting a severe bear market between 2014 and 2017. This bear market will represent the final leg down of the bear market that started in early 2000. This brings us to point F on the chart above  and further explanation on how to predict exact turning points by using 3-DV analysis. Please keep in mind that point F represents the actual turning point in 2014 and the ushering in of the bear market leg. It hasn’t happened yet.  We are predicting the future here.  Let’s take a look.

Step #1:  Measure 3-DV from all major turning points (E, D, C, B and A)  to today’s DOW close.  They are..

  • EF: 12,364
  • DF: 10,610
  • CF: 20,190/20,900
  • BF: 24,100
  • AF:  34,750

Step #2: Calculate all derivative values for the numbers above.

To Be Continued…..

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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 6)

Stock Market Update, November 29th, 2013

daily chart Nov 29, 2013

  

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

Once again, no change since the last market update to alter my opinion. As my mathematical work clearly shows, the bear market will start in 2014. Would you like to know the exact date of the turn? I will make that information available in early 2014. 

For now, the market continues to push through it’s daily highs, behaving as anticipated. My previous updates remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 22nd Report

November 15th Report. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts.

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.  

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Stock Market Update, November 29th, 2013

Just A Reminder. It’s Legal To Kill People This Friday

black friday

As I write this Americans are starting to get ready for the real Hunger Games. Day like no other.  The only day of the year when killing your fellow human beings over a pair of pants is not only legal, but highly encouraged by the Corporate America. A true spectacle to behold.

As ink dries, the crowds are starting to form outside big retailers. They are eager for battle.  Brother will stand against brother, father against son and grandma, well, grandma will stand against everyone. As the clock strikes midnight game participants will literally rip down doors and stampede all over each other for a chance to snatch a TV or perhaps a $2 toaster.  The few unfortunate weaklings who can’t handle the pressure will be the first to go with their brains splattered all over the entrance.  As people continue to do battle insides the store, anything and everything will be used as a weapon. 

The flat screen $49 TV’s will be the first to go. As fist fly and 70 year old grandmas deliver fatal blows, only a few lucky ones will emerge from this battle unscathed. As they run towards the checkout lane, unbelievable scenes begin to unfold all over the store.  Kids beating each other to death with plastic toys, grown men cry as stores run out of cheap beer, nerds killing each with broomsticks over video games and otherwise respectable mothers are strangling each other with 39 cent panties.

As morally bankrupt do battle to buy shit they don’t need with the money that they don’t have, only a few will emerge victorious.  I salute them.  

***I dedicate this article to all the tributes about to die.  Your sacrifice is incredibly important to the natural selection process.  May the odds be ever against you.  

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Just A Reminder. It’s Legal To Kill People This Friday

Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 5)

 

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Continuation of part 4. 

3.  We have already mentioned this earlier in the book, but AB + Bc  and CD + DE are equal. Let’s take another look. (11,832+6,483 =  18,315)  and  (10,156 + 8,137 = 18,293). Please note that we are using 2002 actual bottom for point c instead of 2003 secondary bottom. Also note, that the variance is just 22 points over the 15 year period of time. That constitutes a margin of variance equal to just 3 trading days or a few hundred points directional move.

Also, note that if you divide 18,300  by the square root of 5 you get a value of 8,184. Which was the value of the move between 2007 top and 2009 bottom. Further, if you multiply BD of 12,815 by square root of 2 you will get a value of 18,123 which is identical to the value above.  Once again, if you know the structure of this move and lattice structure associated with the market you have the ability to identify every single turning point in the market over the last 15 years.

All you have to do at those points is to rotate your portfolio position from long to short and from short to long in order to make a killing and outperform the market by a large margin. It is as simple as that.

4.  The move CE of 9,810 and the move CD is the continuation of the move AC represented by 14,100. If you divide 14,100 by the square root of 2 you get a value of 9,970. The actual move between CE ended up being 9,810 giving us the variance of only 1.6%.  The actual move between CD ended up being 10,156 giving the variance of only 1.8%. When you combine this knowledge with the previous 3-DV already discussed you get another confirmation that March of 2009 will be a solid bottom for the stock market and that the 2007 top has been reached.

As such, when everyone is freaking out about the 2007-2009 decline and predicting the end of the world as we know it, you would know that the market will turn around in March of 2009 and begin a multiyear rally.

5. When you multiple vale AB of 11,832 by the square root of 2 you end up with a  3-DV value of 16,733. The actual move between 2000 top and 2009 bottom or the move BE was exactly 16,613. That is a variance of just 0.7%.  Again, the move AB predicted the move BE and 2009 bottom 9 years in advance. Giving you another confirmation point that March of 2009 is an exact bottom and a major turning point.

6. The move BD of 12,815 was the derivative of the move AB + Bc of 18,315.  When you divide 18,315 by the square root of 2 you end up with a 3-DV value of 12,950. This gives us a variance of just 1%.

To Be Continued….

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A Secret Way To Make A Killing In The Stock Market Over The Next 12 Month

BloombergWrites: Subprime Loans Are Boosting Car Sales

subprime car loans

A woman came into Alan Helfman’s showroom in Houston in October looking to buy a car for her daily commute. Even though her credit score was below 500, in the bottom eighth percentile, she drove away with a new Dodge Dart. A year ago, “I would’ve told her don’t even bother coming in,” says Helfman, who owns River Oaks Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ram, where sales rose about 20 percent this year. “But she had a good job, so I told her to bring a phone bill, a light bill, your last couple of paycheck stubs, and bring me some down payment.”

The New York Times Writes: New Boom in Subprime Loans, for Smaller Businesses

A small, little-known company from Missouri borrows hundreds of millions of dollars from two of the biggest names in Wall Street finance. The loans are rated subprime. What’s more, they carry few of the standard protections seen in ordinary debt, making them particularly risky bets.But investors clamor to buy pieces of the loans, one of which pays annual interest of at least 8.75 percent. Demand is so strong, some buyers have to settle for less than they wanted.

A scene from the years leading up to the financial crisis in 2008? No, last month.

It’s scary how predictable human animal is from the psychological perspective. In fact, contrary to a popular believe human psychology IS the primary driver behind the stock market volatility.

Just two quick observations. First, as the articles above indicate the subprime is back in a big way. In 2003-2007 it was the real estate market, where anyone who could (and even those who couldn’t) fog a mirror could get a massive real estate loan. Today you can see the same situation in car loans and loans for small businesses. Thank god the amounts are smaller. Second, the speculative bubble and the frenzy building in the stock market. Everyone is falling over each other predicting the Dow 20,000 or up +40% in 2014. Of course, exactly at the wrong time.

Where were these people at 2009 bottom? Did any of them predict the DOW going up over +150% between 2009 and today? Of course they didn’t. They were too busy screaming that the world is about to end and we are on the verge of another great depression. Now, with credit easily flowing again, we are committing the same mistakes. Those who can take a step outside the box should now be able to see how easy it is to profit from such insanity.

As I have said so many times before, the bear market will start in 2014. Get ready to short overvalued garbage and make a killing.  

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A Secret Way To Make A Killing In The Stock Market Over The Next 12 Month

The Secret Behind Bitcoin Madness. Should You Invest?

BusinessWeek Writes: Bitcoin Buyers Beware: Being Greedy Ain’t Easy

 spending-bitcoins-investwithalex

Fitting, then, that the price of a Bitcoin just crossed—at least for a little while—the $1,000 mark.

Money men who proudly call themselves greedy say that Bitcoin remains undervalued at that price. The preferred currency of online drug dealers, it’s just beginning to become a bit more mainstream. Folks such as Richard Branson are talking about accepting Bitcoin for flights on Virgin America (or, soon, spaceflights on Virgin Galactic). Stores in Silicon Valley will let you buy a sandwich and sushi with the virtual currency. Each new level of visibility is likely to push the value of Bitcoin higher.

Advocates of Bitcoin use liken the currency’s position to the Internet in its early days. We’re in the dial-up phase, they say—you should buy in before the boom of all booms arrives.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

“You should buy in before the boom of all booms arrives”, WOW is all I have to say. If that is not a clear sign of speculative mania, I don’t know what is.

I have written about Bitcoin before. You can see it here  Bitcoin: Crazy or Smart”

Even though the currency has appreciated significantly since that write up, I continue to maintain my position. Primarily, that the Bitcoin is nothing more than a speculative investment that warrants no capital outlay.  My biggest problem with Bitcoin is not having the ability to measure and/or analyze its value at this stage. It can be worth zero or it could be worth $1 Million.  In fact, some speculators believe that it should be worth $1 Million. Indeed.

Given its volatility, unpredictability, tiny float and no real value, Bitcoin remains a highly speculative investment. Certainly, it can go to $1 Million just as easily as it could go to Zero. Overnight. As such, only speculators who do not care about losing their money should apply.  I maintain my position that traditional investors must stay away. This is nothing more than a drunken Tulip Mania. 

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The Secret Behind Bitcoin Madness. Should You Invest?