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4 Reasons Why The US Unemployment Rate Will Be At 20% By 2017

Hey, don’t hate the messenger. I am just a financial analyst with a knack for accurately predicting financial markets and overall economies. If you really need someone to blame, I have got a few peeps for you.  You can start with Bush, Obama, Greenspan, Bernanke and every member of Congress/Senate over the last 15 or so years.

It was their irresponsible fiscal management that has led us all into this predicament.  Let’s take a look.

Reason 1:  Today’s Unemployment Reading Is Not Very Accurate

UNRATE_Max_630_378

As per Chart 1, according to the Bureau of Labor today’s unemployment rate stands at 6.7%. However, this number alone doesn’t show a clear picture. It excludes a number of categories. Primarily, those working part-time, but looking for a full time job and those who have given up looking for any sort of a job, exiting the labor pool completely. Perhaps waiting for a better time.   

unemployment rate 2 investwithalex

Now, if you take a look at Chart 2, you will note that the total unemployment rate (including the people above) is at around 12.5%. I believe that is a much better representation of today’s unemployment number. Particularly, when you take distrust in our Government’s statistics into consideration.

In conclusion and according to our Government’s own numbers, the true starting unemployment number  should be at 12.5% and not 6.7%.  I can argue that the overall number is technically higher, but to be conservative let’s go ahead and stick to 12.5%.  

Reason 2: Upcoming Bear Market (2014-17) Will Throw The Economy Into A Severe Recession

This has been my fundamental view for quite a bit of time. Today’s economic “recovery” is nothing more than an illusion driven by massive amounts of credit pumped into our economy by the FED . If you are counting, 3 Trillion over the last 3 years alone while maintaining a negative interest rate environment.

Listen buddy, there is no free lunch.  If you think that these actions to save the US Economy from the “Great Recession” of 2007-09 will be without consequences, you are gravely mistaken.  A few weeks ago my mathematical timing work has confirmed that December 31st, 2013 was indeed the top of the bull market that started in March of 2009. The bear market will last over the next 3 years and take the Dow Jones into the 9,000-10,000 range.  Ushering in a severe US recession.

In such a recessionary environment we should anticipate massive labor force losses as businesses give out pink slips by the millions. Just like they did in 2007-09.

As such, we should anticipate the unemployment rate to go much higher. Let’s be EXTREMELY conservative and assume that the upcoming recession will only retrace 50% of the 2010 unemployment high of 18% as per Chart 2.

This puts our true unemployment projection at 15.25% by 2017 bear market bottom.

Reason 3: ObamaCare

I wrote a detailed analysis about this yesterday. The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017, as employees work fewer hours or decide to drop out of the labor force entirely. 

doctor-obamacare-investwithalex

With the US labor force being roughly 155 Million people, a cool 1.3% of people will lose their jobs in one form or another due to ObamaCare alone. Thanks Obama.  

However, if you read my analysis on February 4th, you would note that I effectively argued that ObamaCare losses are likely to be close to 4 million jobs and not 2 million. Effectively putting additional job losses at 2.6%.

We are now at 17.85% unemployment by 2017.

Reason 4: Productivity Gains, Technological Improvements, Outsourcing & Robotics

It costs about $2.5/hour to outsource your job to either India or the Philippines. Robotics are pushing the envelope for blue color workers and some products out there can achieve a $2.81 hourly run rate…..today. With constant improvements in this new field, some estimate the hourly cost to be down to about $1.50/hour over the next few years.

How can anyone compete with that? Well, you can’t.

Further, productivity gains and other technological improvements will have a significant impact as well. Again, let’s be on the safe side and assume the 4 points above will cost an additional 3 Million in job losses or 2% of the total labor force by 2017.

Putting us at 19.85% true unemployment by 2017 bear market bottom.  

CONCLUSION:

When we get there, the US Government will never admit to this number and will use every accounting trick in the book to hide the reality. Yet, you know better dear reader. Just like today’s unemployment number of 6.7% is not indicative of today’s true unemployment picture, 2017’s true number will be hidden behind the veil of “Economic BS”.  

What can you do? Other than ensuring that your job is safe…..absolutely nothing.  That is the sad part.  As far as I am concerned the scenario above is already baked into the cake and there is nothing anyone can do. Even praying to Jesus Christ won’t help. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

4 Reasons Why The US Unemployment Rate Will Be At 20% By 2017 Google

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Why Is Donald Trump Freaking Out? He Knows What Will Happen In The Real Estate Over The Next Few Years. It’s Time You Find Out As Well.

housing bubble

Today’s 5-10 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics:

Reader’s Question: “I am thinking about buying a house, the prices are up significantly in my area over the last few years, should I do it now or wait?”  – Lili, Maryland. 

    • The Secret Behind Today’s Real Estate Prices. 
    • What The US Government Doesn’t Want You To Know About Real Estate. 
    • What Will Happen Next. Trust Me, It Is A 100% Certainty Now. 
    • What You Should Do To Save or Make A Lot Of Money Over The Next Few Years. 

Please tweet me your questions @investwithalex

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Warning: Why Does CNBC Wants To Destroy Your Wealth

CNBC Idiots

CNBC Writes: Why long-term investors should buy this selloff 

After a year of steady and quite remarkable gains, fear has crept back into the stock market. Concerns about the U.S. economy have joined emerging market weakness and jitters about the Federal Reserve’s stimulus reduction to send the S&P 500down 6 percent from the high reached Jan. 15. But savvy traders are advising long-term investors that this selloff is presenting a terrific opportunity to buy stocks at a discount.

“If you’re a long-term investor, now’s the time to be allocating,” said Rich Ilczysyzn, senior commodities broker at iiTrader. “I know there’s a lot of pension fund capital waiting to be allocated. They may wait for a specific trigger, maybe 5 percent, or maybe 10 percent. But it’s not going to give the retail guy a lot of time to jump on. And what’s going to happen is, people are going to miss the absolute bottom.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Only the pump and dumpers or the idiots in the financial media can say that a mere 6% selloff is a “buying opportunity of a lifetime”.  I think that teach that phrase in the stock broker school to be repeated like a retarded parrot. Well, I guess I shouldn’t expect anything else from CNBC, a perpetual BS machine.

I would admit to one thing. It was quite entertaining to watch CNBC on huge down days in 2008 and 2009. To watch their “deer in the headlights” faces as they whined while trying to figure out why the collapse was happening. According to them, no one saw it coming.

WRONG, dear talking heads. Plenty of people saw it coming, including myself, and have tried to warn others. Yet, no one wanted to listen. We have the exact same situation today. That is fine by me. That is human nature and I have no desire to shove my work or opinion down anyone’s throat.   

At the same time, one reality remains. The stock market is incredibly overpriced.  Particularly, if you take credit and speculation into consideration.  The most important point to understand here is that corporate earnings over the last 5 years have been driven by the same credit infusion (by the FED to the tune of $85 Billion a month + negative interest rates) that spilled into the stock market. When this QE goes away and/or when the velocity of credit slows down, both happening now,  the stock market as well as the earnings will collapse.

Leading to a significant recession and a massive amount of wealth disappearing into thin air. As I have already mentioned on this blog a number of times,  my mathematical work has confirmed that the bull market has already topped out on December 31st, 2013 and the bear will take us into the 2017 bottom. I am not sure if I can be any more clearer than that.

As such, if you want to listen to retards on CNBC (no offence to the genuinely challenged community) telling you that this is a buying opportunity of a life time, go for it.  Just ask yourself, where were they when the real buying opportunity presented itself in the March of 2009. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!   

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Warning: Why Does CNBC Wants To Destroy Your Wealth Google

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Daily Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 4th, 2014

Daily Chart February 4, 2014

Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position if invested -OR- be in CASH if not. 

2/4/2014 – A fairly slow bounce day in the market with the Dow Jones being up 72.44 points (+0.47%) and the Nasdaq being up 34.5 points (+0.86%). 

As of right now there is no indication in my mathematical work that this particular bear leg from the December 31st, 2013 top is over. I have a number of points of force showing a lower Dow Jones before an eventual turn around and a bounce. I advise that you continue to maintain our In Cash -or- Hold/Long position as we wait for the bear market confirmation. 

While such a stance might cause further short-term losses, it is the most prudent thing to do from a long-term trading strategy.

Short Term Update:  My short-term update includes exact points for force and anticipated turning points in both price and time. If you would be interested in knowing when the market will turn around….please visit our premium Subscriber section. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!   

Daily Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 4th, 2014 Google

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Shocking Truth Finally Comes Out. ObamaCare Will Destroy 4 Million Jobs. The Government Itself Confirms.

doctor-obamacare-investwithalex

Business Insider Writes: CBO: Obamacare Will Lead To 2 Million Fewer Workers In The Labor Force By 2017

The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017, as employees work fewer hours or decide to drop out of the labor force entirely. 

The reduction in the numbers of hours worked projected by the CBO will lead to the equivalent of 2 million fewer workers in the labor force in 2017. That number will rise to about 2.5 million in 2024. Previously, the CBO had estimated the equivalent of 800,000 fewer workers by 2021.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

What a fucking disaster.

I use the rule of TWO to either multiply or divide the data coming out of the US Government. It give me a much more accurate data. For instance, when the government wants its data to look favorable, multiply it by 2 to get a more accurate read and vice versa.

For example, multiply the current unemployment rate of 6.7% by 2 and you end up with 13.4%. As far as I am concerned, a much more accurate representation of unemployment when you take part timers and those who have given up looking for work into consideration.

The Congressional Budget Office just announced that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017. Since they want this data to look as favorable as possible, go ahead and multiply it by 2 to get a more accurate indicator. What does that mean?

The Government itself just admitted that ObamaCare will cost 4 Million jobs.
I am speechless.

As far as I am concerned any regulation that destroys jobs, hurts businesses and slows economic growth is an evil law. Period.  I am afraid, due to the upcoming recession (based on my timing work) the net job losses due to ObamaCare will be much more than 4 Million jobs.

What pisses me off more than anything is complete economic incompetence at every level of our government. They have consistently done nothing but exacerbate our economic problems.

Disappearing middle class, massive debt, wars, credit bubbles, real estate bubbles, corporate earnings bubbles, stock market bubbles, upcoming recession and dim economic future is a clear indication of that. Sad. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!    

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Shocking Truth Comes Out. ObamaCare Will Destroy 4 Million Jobs. The Government Itself Confirms. Google

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Who Makes More Money, Investors or Speculators?

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 19Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics:

Reader’s Question: “Is it better to be a long-term investor or a speculator. Who makes more money?”  – Robert Casper, TX 

    • Why This Is The Wrong Question To Ask. 
    • The Secret Truth Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know. 
    • Who Makes More Money. 
    • Who Should You Be In Order To Maximize Your Returns.  

Please tweet me your questions @investwithalex

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Why The US Economy Is Just Like Philip Seymour Hoffman On Heroin

sick-global-economy-investwithalex

CNBC Writes: Marc Faber: Market volatility will continue, here’s why

“It would seem to me that it’s not just tapering that is putting pressure on markets,” Faber, the author of the closely watched “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report” told CNBC on Tuesday. “In emerging economies we have practically no growth, we have a slowdown in China that is more meaningful than the strategists seem to think and than the official, Chinese statistics seem to suggest.”

“That then puts pressure on the earnings of the multinationals because most of the growth in the world over the last five years has come from emerging economies,” he told CNBC Europe’s “Squawk Box.” No growth, he said, was causing “a vicious circle on the downside” with slowing emerging economies and inflated asset markets that are now deflating, in turn putting more pressure on asset prices and on the economies.

Faber’s comments come as volatility in equity markets continued this week, prompting concerns among traders and investors that markets were at the start of a sharp correction. The moves lower follow a rally last year on the back of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus.

“Total credit as a percent of the global economy is now 30 percent higher than it was at the start of the economic crisis in 2007, we have had rapidly escalating household debt especially in emerging economies and resource economies like Canada and Australia and we have come to a point where household debt has become burdensome on the system—that is, where an economic slowdown follows.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Marc Faber needs to stop reading my reports. In all seriousness, it is nice to see someone like Faber confirm your own analysis and investment thesis in its entirety.

He is, of course, right on the money.  When the entire global economy depends on massive amounts of credit and each country is trying to devalue their currency faster than the other, you know you have a big problem.  Here is a good way to look at the issue.

The US Economy and its global counterpart is no different from the Philip Seymour Hoffman. One of my favorites. The guy was on top of his game in one of the most competitive industries in the world, successful, rich and with the ability to land any type of a girl. What else does a guy need in this world?

Well, for him that wasn’t good enough. So he had to find an escape in booze and heroin. The US Economy functions in exactly the same way. Neither Greenspan nor Bernanke has the testicular fortitude to let the economy go through a typical recovery, clear the slate and keep moving on.

Instead, they have infused the economy with massive amount credit (aka heroin) at the first sight of a sneeze. Distorting all financial markets to a massive degree and making the patient addicted in the process.

Now, there is no going back. Just like Philip Seymour Hoffman OD on heroin, the US and Global Economy will OD on cheap credit. Leading to massive financial trouble around the world. There is no way to avoid it now.

While I agree with Faber, I have an extra level of analysis that he does not. Timing.  Again, my timing work is indicating that the bull market topped out on December 31st, 2013 and the market will now roll over to take us into the cyclical 2017 bear market bottom. 

With that said, right now would be a prudent time to protect yourself. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!    

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Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com. February 3rd, 2014

Daily Chart February 3, 2014Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position if invested -OR- be in CASH if not. 

2/3/2014 – Another ugly day for the market with the Dow Jones being down -326 points (-2.08%) and the Nasdaq being down  -107 points or (-2.61%).

Again, based on my mathematical work, this is not a correction. As my earlier post “Market Top” from two weeks ago outlined and explained, December 31st, 2013 was indeed the top of the bull market that started in March of 2009 and the beginning of the final bear market leg that will take us into the 2017 cyclical bear market bottom.

Even though the market continues to go down, we still need a confirmation before taking a short position. As such, I continue to anticipate the market to bounce into the March time frame before resuming its bear market. If you remember, the market left a number of open gaps in the 16,400 area that will “technically” need to be closed.

Short-Term Projections:

(***This is the only time I will provide short-term projections here. They will only be available in our premium section thereafter). 

My mathematical work shows two points of force coming in February. One coming up this Friday and the other one on February 17th.  Based on my mathematical work, I believe February 17th will be the bottom of this bear move, reversal and subsequent bounce into the March of 2014. If market confirms, we are looking at the 15,025 on the DOW  as our projected negative price target.

However, if the market gets there sooner, there is a good chance that this Friday will be a turning point. I will keep you posted. Either way, we have to wait for a confirmation before taking our long position.

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!      

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Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com. February 3rd, 2014 Google

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The Best Investment You Can Make Today. It Will Shock You To Your Core. Guaranteed.

USD Chart Feb 2014That’s right….. the United States Dollar. 

Yeah, yeah, I know what your are thinking. Dollar is a piece of shit and this Alex dude has lost all of his marbles. The FED is printing $65 Billion a month, interest rates are technically negative and hyperinflation is just around the corner.

Americans will soon need to use barrels of cash just to buy anything at the local supermarket. If you are to listen to Gold Bugs or PermaBears you would soon believe that the US will soon turn into Zimbabwe and that only gold and shotguns will save you.

zimbabwe-money

Clearly, there is no love for the dollar, but hear me out. There is a couple of reasons to love the USD. 

Reason #1: Everyone hates it. What do I constantly try to teach you here? To generate huge profits you must buy what other people hate. So, instead of buying Google at over $1,000 you buy Stinky Fertilizer, Inc (STINK). Assuming the company is fairly priced and has good fundamentals.

Reason #2: The USD has nothing to do with all the credit being generated at the present moment. There is a distinction between a balance sheet transaction between the FED/banks and the actual “physical” dollars. There is only a few of the real dollars to go around compared to the credit outstanding. That is why when the credit collapses the USD typically surges higher.

That is exactly what happened during the 2007-2009 credit crisis. The dollar index shot up from 71.30 in 2008 to 89.20 in 2009. When credit collapses, people scramble for dollars as there isn’t enough to go around. Typically, driving the value of the USD higher.

Reason #3: From the long-term technical perspective the USD is setup for a large move here. The long-term chart (from 2005…not provided here) shows that the currency is about to break out. Either up or down. Since everyone hates the currency and since my mathematical work predicts the credit crunch as well as the significant stock market decline, I would anticipate the dollar to break out to the upside.

CONCLUSION:

The best investment you can make right now is to accumulate dollars. Worst case scenario is that the dollar stays around the same levels while the stock market declines. Giving you the ability to buy great companies at significant discount. 

The best case scenario? Dollar zooms up while the market goes down to the tune of 40%. Giving you a higher purchasing power, no risk and massive returns down the road. Of course, this scenario would work wonders for foreign investors in particular.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

The Best Investment You Can Make Today. It Will Shock You To Your Core. Guaranteed. Google

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What Will The Stock Market Do & Why You Should Care.

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 18

Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics:

Reader’s Question: “Hey, as long-term investors, why should we care about what the market does. Shouldn’t we just concentrate on picking good stocks? ” – Angela . 

    • The answer that will shock you to your core. 
    • How knowing what the market will do can easily double your returns. 
    • Why timing is the most important element when it comes to investing. 
    • What you can do now to combine timing with fundamentals to maximize your gains. 

Please tweet me your questions @investwithalex

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!