Can’t Find A Good Job? You Are Not Alone

Business Week Writes: Not Looking for Work: Labor-Force Participation Hits 35-Year Low

 

The unemployment rate fell in August but for the worst of reasons: Many Americans stopped looking for work so they weren’t counted among the unemployed. What’s harder to tell is why they stopped looking. The political right chalks it up to laziness and government coddling, while the political left says people are giving up looking because a dysfunctional economy isn’t producing enough jobs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the August unemployment rate was 7.3 percent, down a tick from 7.4 percent in July. The worrisome part is why the rate fell. The size of the workforce declined by about 300,000 and the participation rate fell to 63.2 percent from 63.4 percent—the lowest since August 1978. The participation rate is the number of people either working or actively searching for work as a share of the working-age population. It rose steadily over the years as more women entered the workforce before falling sharply in the 2007-09 recession, and it hasn’t recovered since.

Also disappointing was the payroll report. While the 169,000 added to employers’ payrolls in August wasn’t far below the 180,000 median prediction of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, there was a downward revision of 74,000 jobs to the previous two months’ reports. The government said June payrolls grew by only 172,000, rather than 188,000; July’s grew by only 102,000, instead of 162,000. In other words, while employment did grow in August, it was from a substantially lower starting point than previously believed.

Listen, this is fairly easy. The unemployment numbers  that are reported by the FED (with all of their adjustments) are highly diluted at best or as some would argue, downright bogus. The truth of course is somewhere in the middle.

Millions of Americans have given up looking for good paying jobs. As such, they have technically left labor participation pool and are not being counted as “unemployed looking for work”.  I do not think these people sitting at home being happily unemployed.  Not by a long shot. They have simply tried (some for many years) to find good paying jobs but were unable to do so. Why?

As I have mentioned before, I believe the US Economy never technically left recession. The market was simply flooded with cheap credit in order to stabilize things and to give perception that things are getting better. However, with interest rates now moving higher and with stimulus velocity now pretty much being exhausted, I believe recession and unemployment are about to show their ugly head again.

investwithalex unemployment

So, what is the true unemployment number in the US? Hard to say, but if you count all of the people who left the labor pool due to their inability to find full time work as well as those who are considered “part time workers who would like a full time job but are unable to find one” I would put the number at around 15-20% unemployment.  

A grim picture indeed. A picture that might just get a lot worse as the US slides back into a recessionary environment in 2013-2014. If you do have a good job, treasure it. “Now”, might be a good time to start practicing your ass kissing skills. 

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A Must Read

A Must Read For Everyone, 

David Stockman writes through The Daily Beast: The End of U.S. Imperium—Finally!

After having rained napalm, white phosphorous, bunker busters, drone missiles, and the most violent machinery of conventional warfare ever assembled upon millions of innocent Vietnamese, Cambodians, Serbs, Somalis, Iraqis, Afghans, Pakistanis, Yemeni, Libyans, and countless more, Washington now presupposes to be in the moral-sanctions business? That’s downright farcical.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here. Highly Recommended.

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182 Million iPads

BusinessWeek Writes: Risk Ahoy: Maersk, Daewoo Build the World’s Biggest Boat

triple e investwithalex 

The Triple-E’s capacity is 18,000 TEU. (Most containers today are 40 feet long, so the number carried will be closer to 9,000.) Laid end to end, a single Triple-E’s shipping containers would stretch for 68 miles. “In the late 1990s we were like, ‘Oh my God, a 6,000-TEU ship,’ ” says Peter Shaerf, a managing director at AMA Capital Partners, an investment bank specializing in the maritime industry. “Then you go to 13,000 and now 18,000. I don’t know where it stops.” Practically speaking, a Triple-E, in one trip, could take more than 182 million iPads or 111 million pairs of shoes from Shanghai to Rotterdam. Such a trip would take 25 days and burn 530,000 gallons of fuel. That comes to 0.003 gallons per iPad.

Read the rest of the article here

This is truly a massive ship.  A marvel of engineering, capable of carrying massive amounts of cargo.

However, bare with me for a second as we look at it from another perspective.  I think everyone knows the Skyscraper index analogy by now. Basically, the theory says that when the biggest building in the world is built at any given time or nation it spells the end of prosperity and marks the beginning of rough times ahead.

For example,

  • Empire State Building was completed in 1931 or during the darkest hours of the great depression.
  • Chicago Sears Towers was completed in 1973 or near the bottom of a severe 1972-74 recession.
  • Burj Khalifa in Dubai was completed in 2010 close to what some believe was a cyclical high in oil  prices in 2008.  
  • Now China is scheduled to complete the world tallest building “Sky City” in 2014 as it stands close to an economic disaster previously discussed.

feat_ship37graph_315inline

So, the question becomes….. Does Triple E simply represent an engineering marvel or does it stand as a symbol of peak in global economic trade (at least for the time being). Let’s see. 

With the US being on the brink of another recession(if not already in one), with no end of economic troubles in Europe, with emerging markets imploding left and right, with China being in a massive speculative and misallocation bubble, I do not see how global trade can increase that much here over the next few years. As such, Triple E might in fact represent the peak in global trade for the time being.  

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Russian Warships Are Racing To Support Syria, S#*$ Is About To Get Real

AFP Writes: Russian warships cross Bosphorus, en route to Syria

APTOPIX Venezuela Russia

 

Three Russian warships crossed Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait Thursday en route to the eastern Mediterranean, near the Syrian coast, amid concern in the region over potential US-led strikes in response to the Damascus regime’s alleged use of chemical weapons.

Russia, a key ally of Damascus, has kept a constant presence of around four warships in the eastern Mediterranean in the Syrian crisis, rotating them every few months.

Moscow vehemently opposes the US-led plans for military action against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in response to the chemical attack outside Damascus last month.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Wednesday that any US Congress approval for a military strike against Syria without UN consensus would represent an “aggression”.

The Obama administration is hell bent on launching a strike against Syria for what they claim to be a chemical attack on their own people. Of course there is no concrete evidence to the fact, but that is not a deterrent enough for the blood hungry Industrial Military Complex.

Even though popular American opinion is overwhelmingly against attacking Syria, it looks as if this Administration will stop at nothing to settle some sort of a score or to settle some crazy perception that American should stand firm by its principals.  I have no idea what principals those are.

With Russian ships racing to support Syria and with Iran basically saying that they will go to war with the US if Syria is attacked, the situation is getting out of control.  If history teaches us anything is that in “powder keg” times such as these, even a small incident can set in motion a chain of events that has the potential to lead us into a large scale conflict.  

Why is this important from an economic perspective? If some sort of war is set off and with Russia/Iran involved,  it can engulf the whole region. That would have an immediate impact on anything and everything from interest rates to oil prices and from the stock market to the job market.

America has enough structural and fiscal problems to keep it busy for decades and as such it should concentrate on domestic issues instead of trying to go to war against Syria. Let’s just hope that nothing happens and cooler heads prevail. 

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US Economy…Which Way?

Reuters Writes: Robust auto sales keep economy on steady growth path

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy appears to be faring better in the third quarter than analysts had feared with automakers reporting surprisingly strong August sales on Wednesday, helping to buoy expectations of a pullback in monetary stimulus ahead.

In another report, the Federal Reserve said strong demand for autos helped keep the economy on a “modest to moderate” growth path in recent weeks, an assessment that leaves the door open for a reduction in the central bank’s bond purchases.

Auto sales rose 17 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.1 million units. That was the fastest pace since October 2007 and beat the 15.8 million-unit rate analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected.

Auto sales are a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

“We continue to head in the right direction,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “With vehicle sales above 16 million (and) a slow but steadily improving job market, the Fed is going to feel comfortable tapering in September.”

AP Writes: US factory orders drop 2.4 percent in July

WASHINGTON (AP) — Orders to U.S. factories fell in July by the sharpest amount in four months, held back by weaker demand for commercial aircraft and heavy machinery. A key category that reflects business investment plans also fell.

Factory orders dropped 2.4 percent in July compared with June, when orders rose 1.6 percent, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Orders for core capital goods, a category viewed as a proxy for business investment spending, fell 4 percent in July.

Orders for durable goods, items expected to last at least three years, declined 7.4 percent, a slightly bigger drop than the 7.3 percent fall estimated in a preliminary report last week. It was the biggest decline since a 12.9 percent fall in August 2012. Orders for nondurable goods, items such as chemicals, food and paper, rose 2.4 percent in July after a 0.5 percent decline in June.

Auto sales up, factory orders down. What is going on?  I believe what you are beginning to see and will continue to see over the next few quarters is divergence all over the place. While some sectors will do well, others will be in trouble.

This kind of a behavior is indicative of a major turning point in the markets and the overall economy. Eventually most sectors will turn down, but at least for now as this topping process continues, some will continue to grow. This is confirmed by my stock market work which indicates that the bull run that started in March of 2009 is now over and the market should reverse itself into the 2016 final bear market bottom. Dragging all sectors down in the process.

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They Couldn’t Find A Single Syrian That Hates America Anymore?

Bloomberg Writes: Syria Attack Has China Outraged — at U.S.

 

As the U.S. prepares for a potential attack on SyriaChina is left in the awkward position of reacting to the news and occasionally justifying opposition to any U.S. action.

This is not new. In early 2012, China joined Russia in vetoing a United Nations Security Council draft resolution condemning Syrian violence and supporting an Arab League peace plan. It was a controversial move at the time, and the criticism was so overwhelming that People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece newspaper, felt compelled to editorialize in favor of China’s veto — after the fact.

That move itself was unusual for a government that rarely feels the need to explain itself retroactively. But on Syria, Chinese leaders appeared unusually sensitive to suggestions that they may have been insensitive to an unfolding humanitarian crisis. Referring to the U.S. as “the military giant,” the paper wrote in February 2012:

“Even if it stays for a while, it will not take protecting lives of local civilians as its primary task. The tragedies that have occurred in Iraq and Afghanistan have proved it.

“Using violence to prevent humanitarian disasters sounds just and responsible. However, aren’t the attacks and explosions that have occurred after the regime changes in the two countries humanitarian disasters?”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

 

Living outside of the US and watching NBC Nightly News last night, something struck me.  American media is no longer free. I know the media is controlled by corporate interest, but I didn’t realize the extent of the control and the extent of the governmental control until last night.

Basically, half they show they showed dead children followed by crying Syrian men, women and children (of course in some refugee camp) all to a single person saying something to the tune of “America the Great, please help us, you are our only chance for freedom, please defeat Assad, he is killing us, blah, blah, blah”.

What I couldn’t figure out is why there were not able to find one Syrian, not a single Syrian who hates America and/or doesn’t want American intervention.  Wasn’t it just a few years ago there were hundreds of thousands of Syrians in the streets burning American flags and chanting “Death to America”.  And they couldn’t find one Syrian who hates America?  Am I missing something here or did decades of hate turn to love overnight.

You know what this is called? PROPAGANDA.  I grew up in the Soviet Union and I know bullshit when I see it.

Has anyone stopped to ask some questions here.  For example, everyone keeps screaming about ample evidence that Syrian Government was responsible for the gas attack. Apparently there are intercepted phone calls,  direct orders, physical evidence, etc…. Okay, fair enough.  Don’t tell me. Show me. Oh, that’s right, it’s against national security interest to share that information with the American people.

Same song, different day and a different country.  I am sadden by this and what is happening in America.  Another war, another country destroyed, thousands killed. Oh, by the way, here is Senator McCain playing poker  during the Senate hearing in regards to Syria, all while being the number one proponent of going into war. Class act, if you ask me.

mccain-wapo-poker

 

As the Bible says “Put your sword back in its place, for all who draw the sword will die by the sword.”

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Short Term Dow Forecast

BusinessWeek Writes: Anxieties of September Give Markets Reason to Tremble

 September will be September. Forget the fact that the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up 15 percent this year—not far off its record—or that the U.S. market has not had a routine 10 percent correction for more than two years. Never mind howMicrosoft (MSFT) and Verizon (VZ) are throwing billions at deal making. September remains that only month of the year where the Dow Jones industrial average has averaged a decline over the past 20, 50, and 100 years.

Throw in a down and volatile August, and the new month starts anxiously, true to its character. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research notes that Investors Intelligence reported a big drop in the percentage of bullish advisers over the past six weeks. The fraction surveyed who saw a correction rose from 28 percent to 38 percent over the period.

“Fear is back on the front page,” says Joshua Scheinker, an adviser with Scheinker Investment Partners of Janney Montgomery Scott. “My clients are so concerned, almost looking for another crisis, whether Syria, the debt ceiling, or interest rates.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

 

daily chart Sept 5, 2013

From a short-term purely technical perspective the market looks pretty good here. The market is somewhat oversold.  I am looking for a good rebound into the 15,300 territory on the Dow by the end of September before the resumption of the bear market.

It is not the September, but October and November that are seasonally horrific for stocks. There is a cyclical reason for that and I might talk about in the future. 

Long story short. Expect a rebound here to around 15,300 by the end of September, then a reversal and continuation of the bear market. However, I would be careful here and keep my finger on the trigger in case the market breaks below 14,800.

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KING DOLLAR

invest with alex usd

All bow before king dollar. Those who know me can testify that I have been a dollar bull for a long time. See, I am bullish on something. 

In fact, I have been advocating for a long time that the US Dollar is one of the best and the most undervalued investments out there. While most people run around screaming inflation and predicting destruction of the US Dollar the reality is quite different.

Yes, the FED is printing or creating a lot of dollars out of thin air. However, those are not real dollars. They are creating credit which is a completely different animal. At the same time there aren’t that many real dollars out there (well, relative to the overall money supply …including credit). 

So, what happens when there is a credit crunch and people need real money to repay the loans? You have guessed it, the value of the dollar goes through the roof.

USD Chart 

Now, this has been an easy and risk free investment strategy I recommended to my parents over 13 years ago.  I simply told them to accumulate/save as many US Dollars as they can and invest them in short term  T-bills and a few other risk free financial instruments. They have and so far they have done very well.  How well?

US Dollar Accumulation & Risk Free Investments:  +67% compounded over the last 13 years.  

While over the same period of time…..

DOW:  +15%

S&P:  +10%

NASDAQ:  -28%

Not bad if you ask me.  Particularly considering the fact that there is absolutely no risk involved and they are not managing an active portfolio. Well, it’s so easy and stress free that they are not managing anything at all.  I will continue to maintain this position for my parents for at least another 3 years.  That is until 2016 stock market bottom and initiation of inflationary environment.

I recommend you do the same. The US Dollar Index looks good from both technical and fundamental perspective. While it doesn’t really matter if you live in the US, any index appreciation gives you that much more for your buck. 

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Shrinking US Trade Deficit

BusinessWeek Writes:  A Shrinking U.S. Trade Deficit—Brought to You by Fracking

fracking invest with alex

Almost entirely on the back of stronger exports, last week the U.S. Commerce Department revised upward its economic growth estimate for the second quarter, from 1.7 to 2.5 percent. Exports from April to June grew at their fastest pace in two years, pushing down the U.S. trade deficit to 2.7 percent of gross domestic product. That’s less than half what it was at its peak of around 6 percent of GDP in late 2005.

Most of the boost in exports came from tangible stuff sold abroad: goods, rather than services. The biggest among them were petroleum products refined from all the crude oil the U.S. is producing—unlocked by fracking. Through June, the U.S. has exported an average of 99 million barrels of petroleum each month over the past year. That’s roughly quadruple the amount the U.S. was exporting a decade ago.

The story of the shrinking U.S. trade deficit is essentially the story of the U.S. oil boom. The last time the U.S. came close to balancing out the trade deficit, at least in terms of its share of GDP, was just after a recession ended in 1991. To feed the broad expansion that followed, U.S. oil imports grew by more than 130 percent over the next 15 years, from 192 million barrels a month in early 1991 to a peak of about 455 million barrels a month in the summer of 2006.

Read the rest of the article here

 

Finally, some good news for a change.  It would be nice to see America become energy independent over the next few decades. Not only is this great from a financial point of view, but a welcome news from a national security perspective. 

I see energy sector as a growth industry over the next few decades. At the same time, investment thesis in this industry is somewhat complicated.  My work clearly shows that the global economy is about to fall into another deep recession or worse. As that happens energy consumption should significantly decrease leading to much lower oil prices.  While international conflicts in the middle east can play a role in destabilizing the market once again and driving prices higher, I wouldn’t worry about it too much. Anything conflict in this area is likely to be short lived.

As fracking technology improves and production yields increase, expect a lot more oil on the world market.  I don’t think I have to tell you what happens when supply increases and demand goes down. A welcome news for the US Economy indeed. Unfortunately, given massive imbalances due to credit finance expansion over the last few decades, it will be of little help to the overall struggling US Economy.

Nevertheless, if you are able to pick winning companies in this sector, they should appreciate significantly. 

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Plenty of Jobs, but Not For You

Yahoo Finance Writes: Plenty of Job Openings, but Not For You

job-alert-investwithalex

At the end of 2004 the ratio of job openings to workers was about the same as today, but the unemployment rate has moved from a tame 5.4% back then to a painful 7.4% today. So why aren’t job hunters snagging those positions and driving down the unemployment rate, as they did in the past?

The “skills gap”

It seems increasingly likely that many people simply don’t qualify for jobs that are open, which highlights the “skills gap” that seems to be developing as laid-off blue-collar workers compete for jobs in a digital-information economy. Manufacturing has lost nearly 2 million jobs since 2006, for example, and while there’s been a modest recovery during the past two years, the odds of reaching the earlier employment peak seem remote. In construction, the real-estate recovery has brought back some jobs, but there’s still another 2-million-job deficit compared with prerecession levels.

Overall, there are about 4.4. million job openings, according to Labor Dept. data. That works out to 2.8% of the labor force, the same as it was at the end of 2004. With 11.5 million Americans looking for work, you’d think they would quickly grab all the jobs that are open.

Read The Full Article Here

Based on my research I do not see how the employment situation will improve any time soon. If anything,  I believe that unemployment is being under reported throughout government data.  There are just way too many people who are working part time jobs, but who would like to find a full time job.

From a macro economic perspective I do not see anything that would change or reverse this trend. Quite the opposite. With upcoming US Recession, decline in the stock market and continuation of credit defaults, I do not see how the employment situation can improve.

On top of it all you have multiple other trends such as outsourcing and robotics that are taking jobs away.  As such, I expect the employment situation to remain the same in the best case scenario or deteriorate significantly if the US economy slips back into the recessionary environment as I anticipate.  Bottom line is, if you have a full time job……treasure it. 

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