Most market participants buy and sell at exactly the wrong time.  If you watch CNBC there was a parade of bulls in 2007 predicting DOW 20,000 within a year only to be replaced by a parade of bears predicting the end of the world at 2009 bottom. Simple human psychology.

Why is this important? Well, I am glad you have asked. 

As of early August 2013, various metrics measuring/showing investor sentiment indicate an optimistic extreme among market participants.  In fact, some optimistic views expressed wouldn’t be out of place on a space ship heading to Mars.

“This is a buying opportunity of a lifetime, this is the most powerful bull market since the World War II and there is a lot more upside to come” – some guy from a mental asylum on CNBC, August 6th. 

Since then the Dow dropped about 800 points, posting the worst weekly performance since the start of 2013. Yet, that’s just a speed bump for the eternal optimists.

On August 16, a Wharton professor of finance told CNBC, “I certainly wouldn’t throw in the towel. I’m still projecting Dow 16,000 to 17,000 by year end.”  

So, is this a great buying opportunity as most pundits on CNBC and in financial media claim? Are we on our way to DOW 20,000?

HELL NO SON. Get your head out of your ass and start thinking straight.  Here are just a few  facts you might want to consider……

• Investor sentiment is way too high. Some indicators claim it is at historic levels of extreme kind of high.
• The US Stock market is overpriced at these levels.
• The is a lot of emerging market money flooding into the US Stock market looking for safety. This usually happens at exactly the wrong time.  There is no such thing as safety.
• There is no fundamental case for the US stock market to go to Dow 17 or 20,000. Once again, it is extremely overpriced now.
• The fundamental business environment for most US Corporation is starting to deteriorate substantially.
• Interest rates are going higher and the FED has done everything they could up to now. No further stimulus will help and any additional stimulus will be marginal at best.  There is no stimulus velocity left in the system.
• Technical picture is flashing warning signs and showing  that there is a high probability that the stock market is about to break down.
• My timing work indicates that the bull run that started at 2009 bottom is coming to an end. The stock market must decline into its 2016 bottom. There is no way to stop the law of nature.

I can go on for another 20 or so points, but you get the idea.  You have been warned. Start positioning yourself for an upcoming decline now. 

You very well know my position that I believe that the market has topped or in the topping process and will decline into 2016 bottom from this point, to the tune of 20-40%. What is interesting at this juncture is that we are looking for a technical confirmation that it is indeed true.

At least in the short term the market is a little bit oversold. I would wait for a technical pullback to the upside and then wait for the resumption of the bear market. I think we are a few weeks away from any such technical confirmation, but it pays to know exactly where we are.  

My timing work shows that there is a slight possibility (about 20%) that this bull run will end in March of 2014. However, even if such is the case, the market won’t go that much higher here.  

India Bloomberg Writes: India Markets Plunge Pressures Singh as Economy Teeters

India’s biggest two-day stock market slide since 2009, surging bond yields and a plunge in the rupee to a record low are pressuring officials for fresh steps to stem capital outflows and support the economy.

The S&P BSE Sensex (SENSEX) Index sank 1.6 percent at the close in Mumbai, extending the 4 percent loss on Aug. 16. The rupee tumbled 2.3 percent against the dollar, touching an all-time low of 63.23. The yield on the government bond due May 2023 rose 34 basis points to 9.24 percent, the highest on a 10-year note since 2008.

Policy Concern

“Our primary concern is that the policy authorities still don’t ‘get it’ –- thinking this is a fairly minor squall which will simmer down relatively quickly with fairly minor actions,” Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Singapore, wrote in a note. “If this remains the case, then a swift move to 65 against the U.S. dollar is probable, which in turn should help focus minds.”

“Slow growth, high inflation, a high fiscal deficit and high current-account deficit all point to the inescapable conclusion that India’s problems are deep and structural,” said Prasanna Ananthasubramanian, an economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd. in Mumbai. 

Staunch Outflows

While other developing nations are also striving to staunch outflows, the rupee’s 13 percent fall in the past three months is the worst after the about 16 percent drop in Brazil’s real in a basket of 24 emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg.

The question is, does this market plunge in India as well as their currency slide represent a buying opportunity or beginning of a trend for all emerging markets such as SEA?

From an emerging market perspective India finds itself in a unique situation due to its structural problems.  As of right now, other emerging markets are fairing much better. Where it is not unique, is the capital outflows from all emerging markets and subsequent capital inflows into an overpriced US Stock Market.

In simple term, people are looking for safety. They are taking money from emerging markets and pilling it into the US Market under the pretense  that the US Market is somehow safer. However, quite the opposite is the case. The US Market is the most overpriced and by definition the most risky. This time around it is simply lagging behind the emerging markets on the downside.

Bottom line, I wouldn’t touch India or other emerging markets right now. Rarely do markets or stocks make a V shape recovery.  While an argument can be made that emerging markets are undervalued (and some of them are), I believe they are leading the decline and the US Markets is surely to follow them shortly. 

What is TIMED VALUE ?

Timed Value is an investment approach that I have developed over the last 15 years.  Please, allow me to first break it down for you into two investment approaches and then bring it back together for a more comprehensive understanding.

Value Investing.

If you have been in an investment field for any period of time you know what value investing is and I won’t spend too much time going over it here.

Basically, Value Investing is investing in undervalued companies that for whatever reason are selling at a significant discount to their intrinsic value or what  they should be worth. There could be a million and one reasons why that happens, but markets do swing up and down, improperly and significantly undervaluing great businesses at times. 

By investing in such businesses you automatically reduce your risk due to a margin of safety.  It’s not a sure fire way to prevent losses, but undervalued companies tend to depreciate less if you have made a wrong decision and appreciate more when your fundamental research is proven to be correct.

As you probably know Value Investing has been famously used by a super investor Warren Buffett to amass his $40-60 Billion wealth.  I too firmly believe that value investing is one of the best ways to minimize risk while setting yourself up for a larger gain should the stock recover.  At the same time, value investing has a number of shortcomings.

The biggest problem with value investing is TIMING.  Yes, you might have found a very cheap or very expensive (short side) stock, but you have no idea WHEN this stock will move in your direction. Yes the stock might be cheap, but it can remain cheap and not move anywhere for many years  -OR – worst, move in the opposite direction even though you are 100% confident that your fundamental analysis is correct.     

Let me give you an example. As early as 2006, I have predicted the economic collapse of 2007-2008 and the catalyst behind it. I have made a determination that the market will decline significantly and that it would be best to be on the short side. I have identified the worst of the Sub-prime lenders (companies like LEND) and shorted them.  Yet, these companies kept going up for the next 18 months.  When my fundamental thesis was finally proven, these companies collapsed and filed for bankruptcy within 2 weeks. 

The lesson of the story is…… while your fundamental analysis might be right on the money and you have minimized risk by creating a margin of safety, still you don’t know WHEN it will happen.  In might be 10 years from today.  In the meantime, you have investors calling you and bitching why hasn’t their portfolio performed well.

Which brings us to the TIMED part of the equation.

I believe it is instrumental to know WHEN something is going to happen. When will that stock start moving in the direction that your fundamental analysis indicates.

If you believe that timing is impossible to predict, you would be WRONG.   And no, it has nothing to do with the technical analysis.

Before we go any further we must define a CRITICALLY IMPORTANT concept.

WHAT IS TIME?

I know it is a deep question. There are libraries full of philosophy and physics books that define time in a million different ways.

For our purpose, we have to ask a question. Is the time linear or is it cyclical?

The stock market chart identifies time as linear (from past to present to future), yet if you begin to actually study what time is you will very soon come to a conclusion that time is anything but linear.  Nature is not linear. Everything in nature is cyclical. It might look linear to an untrained eye, but once you look under the hood, the situation is completely different.

For example, you are born, you grow up, you live, you grow old, you die. The cycle is now complete.

Same thing is with time. Time does not flow at a constant rate nor does it flow in one direction. Time vibrates and cycles at its own speed and rate of vibration.

Before I get in too deep let me restate it from a much simpler perspective as it applies to the stock market or individual stocks.

Because time is cyclical (not linear) and has its own rate of vibration as it applies to the stock market or individual stocks, that rate of vibration can be determined and as such be used to precisely identify WHEN any given stock or the overall market will move in any given direction.

Yes, you have heard it right, my mathematical work clearly indicates that the stock market can be predicted and timed to within daily resolution. Due to this, out sized returns can be achieved.   Just as a note, this has nothing to do with technical analysis as my work moves well beyond TA. 

So, what is TIMED VALUE? It is exactly what you think it is. It is investing in undervalued companies (minimizing risk) while precisely identifying the time of WHEN that move will occur. Once again, identifying the exact timing of the event is not only possible, but a reality. I have proven that fact to my entire satisfaction.

As such, when you implement TIMED VALUE you have accomplished both the reduction of risk and maximization of profit (low risk and high return). What more can you ask for as an investor?

Interested in my TIMING work? Please contact me with any inquiries.