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Stocks Surge As Economic Data Falls Apart

A positive week with the Dow Jones up 777 points (+3.09%) and the Nasdaq up 174 points (+2.38%) 

The stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

What are we to make of the following headlines…….

The above confusion is best summarized by the following analogy. An out of control drunk driver speeding down a winding road, better yet, a Tesla on autopilot. We all know what happens next.

Luckily, you don’t have to guess what the stock market will do next. If you would like to find out exactly what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here.

Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.

Z31

Posted on

Shockingly Weak Retail Sales: Should Investors Panic Or NOT?

2/14/2019 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 103 points (-0.41%) and the Nasdaq up 6 points (+0.09%) 

The stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

Today’s retail sales number were so weak that Larry Kudlow couldn’t decide if he should fire up his Super Spin BS 7000 machine or just have another heart attack. Let’s explore…..

Recession Bells

I hear bells. Recession bells.

This data matches yesterday’s report of rising delinquencies in both autos and credit cards.

 

More so than usual, expect a GDP Pot Shot on Feb 28, as Not All Inputs Finalized.

  • Construction spending, international trade, and inventories are GDP inputs.

  • The BEA will run with the advance trade, wholesale and retail inventory indicators released on February 27 rather than full reports.

  • New home sales for December as well as construction appear to be complete pot shots. Those reports come out after the GDP estimate.

But, it might not be as bad as it sounds.

Clearly, the exuberance of consumers maxed out last summer and is now returning to lower levels.

Looking at the chart above, the year-over-year growth rates change sharply all the time, and what I’m seeing in the chart doesn’t make me panic yet, but it makes me nervous.

My take on all of the above is rather simple. It is not the question of IF, but WHEN. Everything under the sun, including consumer spending, has been financed by zero interest rates, massive influx of debt/speculative capital and our primarily debt driven “fake” economy.

The laws of physics have not changed. All of the above will come crashing down when the time is right.

Luckily, you don’t have to guess when that will happen. If you would like to find out exactly what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here.

Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.

z32

Posted on

Record 7 Million Americans Are About To Get Their Cars Repossessed

2/13/2019- A positive day with the Dow Jones up 117 points (+0.46%) and the Nasdaq up 5 points (+0.08%) 

The stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

Yes, you have read it right, record 7 million Americans are 90+ days behind on their car payments.

“A development that is surprising during a strong economy and labor market”: New York Fed

Serious auto-loan delinquencies – loans that are 90 days or more past due – surged to 4.47% of total auto loan balances in Q4 2018, according to New York Fed data this morning. This put the auto-loan delinquency rate at the highest level since Q1 2012 and just 0.6 percentage points below the peak during the Great Recession in Q1 2011.

But, but, but……..

The Nasdaq Composite Index, often used as a proxy for the health of technology and internet-related stocks, on Wednesday was on the verge of ending its longest bear market, by one measure, since 1991.

The Nasdaq on Dec. 21 closed more than 20% below its all-time high set on Aug. 21, meeting the widely accepted definition of a bear market. After continuing its fall through Christmas Eve, marking its mos recent bear-market low, the index has punched higher alongside other major benchmarks.

In other words, either the economy will accelerate higher over the next few years and those millions of Americans will soon start paying off their loans -OR- this “magical” thinking on Wall Street will eventually meet its sudden demise.

Luckily, you don’t have to guess what the stock market will do next under such extreme conditions. If you would like to find out exactly what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here.

Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.

Z30

Posted on

The State Of “Everything Is Awesome”

2/12/2019 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 372 points (+1.49%) and the Nasdaq is up 106 points (+1.46%) 

The stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

President Trump continues to claim that he has created the best economy this great land has seen, since, well, ever. Let’s take a closer look at some stunning data points….

The study, led by Dr. David Himmelstein, Distinguished Professor at the City University of New York’s (CUNY) Hunter College and Lecturer at Harvard Medical School, indicates that about 530,000 families each year are financially ruined by medical bills and sicknesses. It’s the first research of its kind to link medical expenses and bankruptcy since the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010.

Delinquencies are rising despite the allegedly robust jobs market. Stress is not at 2008 levels but it has been on the upswing since 2014 or 2016 depending on the age group.

So what happens in a downturn?

“Reaching this unfortunate milestone so rapidly is the latest sign that our fiscal situation is not only unsustainable but accelerating,” said Michael A. Peterson, chief executive officer of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonpartisan organization working to address the country’s long-term fiscal challenges.

Sometimes, multiple roommates. Just ask Kelsey Riley Dixon. The 29-year-old business owner and her husband, a semi-pro kayaker, share a four-bedroom home with three male roommates “to reduce costs in the very expensive city of Seattle,” she says. “It allows us to have a home in a really expensive city with a deck, a backyard, a basement — and we are able to pay half the rate that we would living on our own.”

Never better, indeed.

Luckily, you don’t have to guess what the stock market will do next under such extreme conditions. If you would like to find out exactly what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here.

Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.

Z31