9/28/2018 – Another mixed week with the Dow Jones down 285 points (-1.06%) and the Nasdaq up 60 points (+0.75%)

The stock market finds itself at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to move. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

Inflation, inflation, inflation. That’s all you are hearing from the mainstream financial media nowadays. The FED is apparently fighting this invisible monster, oil prices are up, interest rates are up and Trump’s tariffs are expected send prices surging at Wal Marts across this beautiful country.

Yet, consider the following…….

Personal Income Rises 0.3%, Inflation Benign

Those looking for an explosion in either income and especially inflation did find what they were seeking in August.

The BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays Report for August has the details.

• Personal income increased $60.3 billion (0.3 percent) in August.
• Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $51.4 billion (0.3 percent)
• Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $46.4 billion (0.3 percent).
• Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in August and Real PCE increased 0.2 percent.
• The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.

The BLS says core inflation is zero and year-over-year core inflation is 2.0%.

Your results may differ substantially especially if you buy your own health insurance, don’t have health insurance, are in school, are looking to buy a house, or live in a high rent area.

Curiously, a debate over where inflation should be is underway at the Fed and at central banks in general. For discussion, please see Rethinking the Fed’s 2% Inflation Target: Spotlight On an Absurd Debate.

So, what gives?

We have to keep in mind two important data points here.

First, inflation is a lagging indicator. Just as unemployment and GDP numbers are. When everyone is screaming inflation, even at 2%, chances are, we are already at peak inflation at that particular moment.

Most importantly, most of this so called inflation since 2009 bottom went straight into speculative assets. The stock market, bonds, real estate, art, collectible cars, etc…. We are seeing a little bit of a spill over into the real economy (food, energy, etc…) but the spill over is not significant by any measure. We are certainly not seeing it in wages despite the tax cuts and Mr. Trump’s “Best Economy” in American history.

In other words, when the Everything Bubble pops, as it surely will, you will see any residual inflation disappear overnight, only to be replaced by a massive deflationary spiral.

If you would like to find our exactly when the stock market will crater, based on our mathematical and timing work, in both price and time, please Click Here

9/27/2018 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 54 points (+0.21%) and the Nasdaq up 51 points (+0.65%) 

The stock market finds itself at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to move. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

Not that we need another red flag, but……

Do They Know Something We Don’t? Corporate Insiders Are Selling Stocks At The Fastest Pace In 10 Years

With September not yet over, stock sales by company executives reached $5.7 billion, according to data from TrimTabs Investment Research — the highest September in a decade. August’s $10.3 billion in insider sales also reached a 10-year record.

At the same time, stock buybacks are roaring ahead, pumping up U.S. share prices to new heights. Companies this year have announced $827 billion in spending to purchase their own shares — well above the buybacks that took place during all of 2007, which set the previous annual record.

“Insiders have been committing lots of money for stock buybacks, and they’re not doing buybacks because they think stocks are cheap. They’re doing to it to pump up the stock so they can sell it,” said David Santschi, director of liquidity research at TrimTabs.

It is a nice gig if you can get it.

• Step 1: Use funny money or nearly free debt to buy up unlimited amounts of your company’s stock.
• Step 2: Drive up your stock price to astronomical overvaluation levels.
• Step 3: Give yourself massive stock bonuses and then dump your highly inflated shares to unsuspecting retail investors.
• Step 4: Act a fool when the whole bubble blows up.  As it surely will.

There is another name for all of the above. A Ponzi Scheme. Unfortunately, our Government has made it legal and we have to live with it. So, take it for what it is. Yet another massive red flag for an ugly financial bubble we are currently in.

If you would like to find out exactly when the market will crater, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here.