Investment Grin Of The Day
Some Charts To Scare Some Bulls
7/18/2018 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 79 points (+0.32%) and the Nasdaq down 1 point (-0.01%)
Now, I would hate to ruin your day, particularly if you are a bull, but here goes nothing.
I know you are sick and tired of this chart, but nothing has changed. Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 32.74. Slightly off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55. In other words, the stock market has never been more expensive. It would have to collapse 50% just to hit its median price and we are not even talking about overshooting to the downside.
But what about earnings? Aren’t we supposed to have 4% GDP growth with the S&P earnings surging to the moon? After all, President Trump said so……MAGA?
NO!!!
Notice something of significant importance from the chart above. The S&P earnings are back or slightly above their 2014 levels. AKA….what growth? Since their 2016 dip bottom, everything that could be thrown at the market from the bullish side was already done. Weak dollar, tax cuts, money printing, etc….. The opposite is true now. The FED is tightening and deleveraging their balance sheet, the dollar is surging and Trump’s tax cuts are already priced in.
BUT, Warren Buffett said it’s a good time to be a long-term investor. 
Umn, perhaps that’s a good idea if you are willing to wait until Warren Buffett reincarnates as a $1000 bill.
Here is the bottom line, you have to dismiss what Mr. Buffett says as he now represents the stock market in its entirety. Instead, pay attention to Mr. Buffett’s favorite market indicator of Corporate Equities to GDP is saying.
The said chart is clear in its conclusion. The stock market today is selling at the second highest valuation level ever. Certainly not a good time to look for value that Mr. Buffett so dearly loves. Valuations would have to decline over 50% just to hit their median.
Finally, the scariest chart of them all. 
It is truly mind boggling to see how long and leveraged everyone is. When the market finally cracks, as it surely will, all of the red on the right hand side will act as jet fuel to the downside.
To very quickly summarize, the stock market is incredibly expensive and sitting at historically high valuation levels. At the same time, positive drivers that were in force over the last few years (low interest rates, QE, weak dollar, margin expansion, tax cuts, etc…) have either reversed or in process of doing so. Finally, long-term bullish sentiment has never been higher as is represented by historically high margin debt levels.
What can possibly go wrong?
Luckily, our mathematical and timing work is clear in this regard. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, please Click Here
Charles Nenner Expects A Deflationary Collapse….Should You?
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
FED Powell Confirms – Yield Curve Inversion Imminent
7/17/2018 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 55 points (+0.22%) and the Nasdaq up 49 points (+0.63%)
Here is why remaining market bears should rejoice and have a bit of a party despite some indices hitting new all time highs.
You see, the FED and its Chairman Jerome Powell are making a colossal policy mistake. Not only is QT is in full swing, Mr. Powell is just months away from inverting the yield curve.
Powell backs more rate hikes as economy growing ‘considerably stronger’
The U.S. economy is running at a fast enough pace to justify continued interest rate increases, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday.
“Overall, we see the risk of the economy unexpectedly weakening as roughly balanced with the possibility of the economy growing faster than we currently anticipate,” Powell said.
“The unemployment rate is low and expected to fall further. Americans who want jobs have a good chance of finding them,” he added.
I am too lazy to look it up, but the thinking above might as well be copy/pasted from 2000 and 2007 tops.
We spoke about this before Imminent Yield Curve Inversion Points To Massive Losses Ahead Here is the chart…..
The FED is once again mistaking debt driven speculative mania with true economic growth. Today’s yield curve is already as flat as a poor’s man pancake and it is already a little beside the point if it actually inverts or not. The damage is already spreading throughout financial firms and the economy.
Than again, what do I know, according to the bulls this time is different.
Our mathematical and timing work associated with the stock market is crystal clear. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.
Why Nuclear War With Russia Is Now Unavoidable
As far as I know I am the only person out there who is giving you the exact timing of the Nuclear World War 3. If you would be interested in finding out when the war starts and what you can do now to prepare, please CLICK HERE
I am shocked and sadden by everyone’s reaction to President Trump meeting Mr. Putin and discussing cooperation instead of threatening war. In fact, I don’t remember such a one sided reaction ever.
Imagine if media or the establishment reacted the same way when Bushes bombed the middle east, Clinton bombed Eastern Europe and Obama just about droned everyone else. Apparently the horrors of war and millions dead don’t even come close to two leaders sitting down and having a discussion.
Much smarter people have already covered all of this for us. Let’s review…..
Is President Trump A Traitor Because He Wants Peace With Russia?
Yes, Russia is a superpower. Russian weapons are so superior to the junk produced by the waste-filled US military/security complex that lives high off the hog on the insouciant American taxpayer that it is questionable if the US is even a second class military power. If the insane neoconservatives, such as Max Boot, William Kristol, and the rest of the neocon scum get their way, the US, the UK, and Europe will be a radioactive ruin for thousands of years.
Ron Paul: The Mueller Indictments and The Trump-Putin Summit: Triumph of the Deep State?
First the obvious: after more than a year of investigations which have publicly revealed zero collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, why drop this bombshell of an allegation at the end of the news cycle on the last business day before the historic Trump/Putin meeting in Helsinki? The indictment could not have been announced a month ago or in two weeks? Is it not suspicious that now no one is talking about reducing tensions with Russia but is all of a sudden – thanks to Special Counsel Robert Mueller – talking about increasing tensions?
The mass hysteria following Trump’s meeting with Putin is likely to last for days. Most are outraged. Few see the light.
My article Congratulations to President Trump for an Excellent Summit with Putin spawned numerous some I could not tell if they were sarcastic or not.
For example, reader Brian stated ” There is zero doubt now that Putin stole the election from Hillary. So much so that she MUST be given the nomination again in 2020. All potential challengers must step aside. To refuse her the 2020 nomination would be evidence of traitorous activities with Putin.”‘
Mass Hysteria or Mass Stupidity – not sure which one is more appropriate here.
People often ask me, why will the war happen. If yesterday’s actions are not clear enough, because the Establishment wants it. And if you cannot clearly see that now, you never will.
Once again, if you would like to find out when this life ending war will develop and what you can do now to prepare, please Click Here
