2/14/2019 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 103 points (-0.41%) and the Nasdaq up 6 points (+0.09%)
The stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here.
Today’s retail sales number were so weak that Larry Kudlow couldn’t decide if he should fire up his Super Spin BS 7000 machine or just have another heart attack. Let’s explore…..
Recession Bells
I hear bells. Recession bells.
This data matches yesterday’s report of rising delinquencies in both autos and credit cards.
More so than usual, expect a GDP Pot Shot on Feb 28, as Not All Inputs Finalized.
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Construction spending, international trade, and inventories are GDP inputs.
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The BEA will run with the advance trade, wholesale and retail inventory indicators released on February 27 rather than full reports.
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New home sales for December as well as construction appear to be complete pot shots. Those reports come out after the GDP estimate.
But, it might not be as bad as it sounds.
Clearly, the exuberance of consumers maxed out last summer and is now returning to lower levels.
Looking at the chart above, the year-over-year growth rates change sharply all the time, and what I’m seeing in the chart doesn’t make me panic yet, but it makes me nervous.
My take on all of the above is rather simple. It is not the question of IF, but WHEN. Everything under the sun, including consumer spending, has been financed by zero interest rates, massive influx of debt/speculative capital and our primarily debt driven “fake” economy.
The laws of physics have not changed. All of the above will come crashing down when the time is right.
Luckily, you don’t have to guess when that will happen. If you would like to find out exactly what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here.
Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.
