6/18/2015 – Another positive day with the Dow Jones up 179 points (+1.00%) and the Nasdaq up 68 points (+1.34%)
A massive and rather rapid stock market decline is coming later on this year. And while we won’t have a crash, considering the amount of margin debt out there, quite a few people will get wiped out. If you would like to find out exactly when this move will develop, to the day, please Click Here.
The NYSE (largest index by capitalization) hasn’t gone anywhere in close to 12 months, the Dow Transports recently confirmed short-term breakdown, Shiller’s S&P P/E ratio is at 27 (third highest in history) and VIX/VXX are scraping the bottom of their trading range.
And while fewer and fewer stocks are participating in recent rallies, there are quite a few areas that are keeping this market afloat. What are they? Speculative stocks (specs). The Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Biotech. A few sturdy sectors are preventing a market breakdown
Is that Good or Bad?
That depends on whom you ask. Most bulls see this a net positive, suggesting that this group provides leadership and that broader markets will follow suit. Most bears would argue that these sectors will be the last to go, and when they do, they are likely to move to the downside quite rapidly.
Unfortunately, financial history does not offer us a proper answer. Sometimes the specs lead and sometimes they follow the market. With that said, today’s overall setup is more reminiscent of 2000 top. At that time the broader market led most specs by about 3 months.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 18th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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