Interested in knowing the exact point (in both price and time) of the bear market start in 2014? You are in luck. Below is an excerpt from my upcoming book “Timed Value” telling you exactly when. While it was already published on this blog in November of 2013, I would like to bring your further attention to this portion of the book as it contains a useful forecast. Please note how accurate it has been since its original date of publication.
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As mentioned earlier, the 3-DV of EF today is 12,364. If we analyze the four 3-DVs above, we will soon find out that 3 different numbers closely resemble today’s value of 12,364. They are
- DE 14,094
- AE 13,542
- CE 13,873
All other 3-DVs and their derivatives either fall short or are outside the scope of our analysis. You will notice that the value AE is the closest one to our present value of 12,364. That basically means the market is not yet done moving up. It also means that once the value AE 13,542 is reached, it is highly probable that it will mark the turning point in the stock market.
Further, as of today the value EF consists of 2 input variables. Time Value of 7,742 trading hours and Price Value of 9,641 points. Let’s further assume that based on our research we believe that March of 2014 will be the top of the bull market and/or the move EF. This gives us an additional 80 trading days or 520 trading hours. By adding 520 trading hours to 7,742 trading hours we get all necessary information to make an accurate estimate of the bull market top.
In addition, we can estimate how much the market will move up between now and March of 2014. We simply adjust our 3-DV equation to look like this
SQRT (8,262^2 + X^2 ) = 13,542
When we solve the equation for X, the X = 10,730. This value represents the PRICE portion of the equation at the completion of the move. With today’s PRICE value being at 9,641 this means the market is likely to go up another 1,089 points (10,730 – 9,641) between today and March of 2014.
DOW PROJECTION: 16,097+1,089 = 17,186 in March of 2014
Think about this for a second and how powerful this simple calculation is. If you got your lattice structure figured out and/or you know the next 3-DV move, you can predict with 100% certainty exactly when the stock market will top out. Not only when, but exactly where. To the day and to the point. So, while everyone else is playing the guessing game of how long this bull market will continue, you know the answer well ahead of that turning point taking place. You know that you must hold for another 4 month in order to realize the maximum gain and then simply reverse to short position to benefit from the upcoming bear market decline. Amazing, isn’t it?
But what if the forecast above is incorrect?
As I have mention so many times before in this book, no analyst or investor should look at any forecast in absolutely certain terms. Until the lattice structure of the market is fully understood, there is always a possibility of being wrong. Unfortunately, understanding the lattice structure of the market is outside the scope of this book. It is too complex and dynamic to be explained in this relatively short publication. Volumes of work must be published before clarity could be obtained. Yet, any analyst willing to put in the work, should be able to determine the underlying structure.
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