Typically, governments don’t impose capital controls on bright shiny days. They do it right before shit hits the fan. Argentina and Venezuela are perfect examples of that. No doubt Ukraine is on the brink of a political collapse or worse, much worse, economic collapse. With political meddling from EU, US and Russia, this powder keg is about to explode. If you know anything about the region, understand one thing. There is no way in hell, in this universe and the next, that Putin will let Ukraine go to the EU or Western side. As far as Russian government is concerned, Ukraine is still part of the iron “Soviet Union” and will remain so for the foreseeable future. No matter how many tantrums the UE or the US throws. Yet, even with Russia’s support I would expect Ukrainian economy to be flushed down the toilet and soon. Capital controls are never short term and are never good. Expect the worst especially when the Ukranian Government assures otherwise.
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Ukraine Imposes Capital Controls as President Meets Putin
Ukraine’s central bank imposed limits on foreign-currency purchases, bolstering a sagging hryvnia after interventions failed to, while President Viktor Yanukovychprepared to meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Sochi.
The monetary authority set a monthly cap on foreign currency purchases for individuals and imposed a waiting period of at least six working days for companies and people, according to a statement on its website yesterday. The crisis, in its third month, has rocked the hryvnia, squeezing reserves as authorities struggle to contain a record current-account gap.
With a leak of undiplomatic language from a U.S. diplomat rattling ties with the European Union as they discuss potential aid, Yanukovych traveled to the opening ceremony of the Sochi Olympics where he is to meet the Russian president, who halted payments from a $15 billion bailout after nationwide protests led to the cabinet’s collapse.
“It may be difficult for the central bank to contain the situation until there is more clarity regarding a bailout from Russia or, potentially, from the West,” Ben Griffith, an analyst at Victoria 1522 Investments LP in San Francisco, said by e-mail. “The market needs to know what changes would cause Russia to pull its agreement or cause the Western bloc to step in with assistance.”
Hryvnia, Bonds
The hryvnia, which has fallen to a five-year low of 9 per dollar several times in the past three days, gained 3.6 percent to 8.545 by 12:59 p.m. in Kiev, the biggest gain since September 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That pared the decline this year to 3.4 percent.
“The decision by Ukraine’s central bank to impose targeted capital controls should bring some short-term relief to the hryvnia,” Neil Shearing, a London-based analyst at Capital Economics, wrote in an e-mailed report today. “But it is unlikely to prevent further falls in the currency over the coming months.”
The yield on Ukraine’s dollar bonds due this June rose 191 basis points, or 1.91 percentage points, to 16.67 percent yesterday, the highest since before the Russian bailout was announced Dec. 17. The rate was 97 basis points lower at 15.70 percent at 2:18 p.m. today.
The cost of insuring the country’s debt against non-payment for five years using credit-default swaps fell 15 basis points to 1,071 after reaching the highest in almost two months yesterday, CMA data showed.
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Ukraine Imposes Capital Controls. Is Ukraine About To Collapse? Google