Bloomberg Writes: China Exports Unexpectedly Drop

 

China’s exports unexpectedly fell in September, signaling constraints from global demand and highlighting distortions from fake invoices that have yet to be eliminated from trade data.

Overseas shipments dropped 0.3 percent from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday in Beijing, trailing all 46 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey that had a median projection for a 5.5 percent gain. The trade slowdown resulted from a high basis of comparison with last year, the agency said in a statement.

“There has been an export recovery since July to the U.S. and Europe but it’s been pretty weak,” Shen said. “The driving force for China’s recovery at this stage is still housing and infrastructure investment.”

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I am not sure what is so unexpected about the export drop. You could see this coming from a mile away. What’s more is that this is a trend that is just starting. I would continue to expect weakness in the Chinese export sector as the global economy starts to contract. 

This is very basic. The US Economy is literally running on fumes, QE and a lot of credit infused speculation. As such factors dissipate or lose force (already happening) the US Economy will slip back into a recessionary environment. The whole world will follow (or lead) the way. Under such a backdrop, it is impossible for the exports to be anything but down.

Chine exports “Unexpectedly” dropping is just another sign that we are in early stages of such a development. As I have said many times before, right now would be a good time to think about protecting your assets from the upcoming recession.

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