Tag: COT

As you already know, Matt Demeter’s (Demeter Capital) weekly coverage concentrates on some of the most popular worldwide indices, futures, bonds, stocks, commodities and currencies. Matt’s work is some of the most accurate I have ever seen and it shows. The table below represents just a small portion of work available from Demeter Research. To learn more and to see Matt’s work in action, please Click Here.

Report Date: May 8th, 2016  (Including COT Reports). 

For up to the minute long-term and short-term analysis on all of the markets below, please Click Here

As you already know, Matt Demeter’s (Demeter Capital) weekly coverage concentrates on some of the most popular worldwide indices, futures, bonds, stocks, commodities and currencies. Matt’s work is some of the most accurate I have ever seen and it shows. The table below represents just a small portion of work available from Demeter Research. To learn more and to see Matt’s work in action, please Click Here.

Report Date: March 13th, 2016  (Including COT Reports). 

For up to the minute long-term and short-term analysis on all of the markets below, please Click Here 

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of February 2nd, 2016

Currencies: 

• USD:  1K Long Vs. 57K Short – No changes. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 76K Long Vs. 10K Short – Slight decrease in net long exposure. Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 190K Long Vs. 5K Short – No changes. British pound remains bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 67K Long Vs. 72K Short – Neutral.
• Euro: 128K Long Vs. 64K Short – Significant increase in net short exposure. Yet, Euro remain bullish.
• Australian Dollar: 75K Long Vs. 2K Short – Slight decrease in net long exposure. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro  and Australian Dollar rally. Japanese Yen is neutral. This is consistent with our view that the FED won’t raise rates by much. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 411K Long Vs. 334K Short – Net neutral position remains.
• Nasdaq 100-Mini: 43K Long Vs. 118K Short – Sizable short position. Slight decrease in net short position.
• VIX: 22K Long Vs. 68K Short –  No changes. VIX remains bearish.
• Gold: 46 Long Vs. 76K Short – Gold remains neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P and gold. At the same time, commercials now have a very large short position on the Nasdaq. That is important. VIX turned bearish. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Q-4 Earnings. 
• Wednesday: Janet Yellen’s testimony.
• Friday: Retail Sales.

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – February 5th, 2016 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of January 26th, 2016

Currencies: 

• USD:  1K Long Vs. 57K Short – No changes. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 81K Long Vs. 3K Short – No changes. Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 190K Long Vs. 5K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. British pound remains bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 63K Long Vs. 94K Short – Neutral.
• Euro: 134K Long Vs. 37K Short – Slight increase in net short exposure. Euro remain bullish.
• Australian Dollar: 85K Long Vs. 1K Short – Slight decrease in net long exposure. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro  and Australian Dollar rally. Japanese Yen is neutral. This is consistent with our view that the FED won’t raise rates by much. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 387K Long Vs. 353K Short – Net neutral position remains.
• Nasdaq 100-Mini: 38K Long Vs. 128K Short – Sizable short position. Slight decrease in net short position.
• VIX: 23K Long Vs. 69K Short –  Significant decrease in net long exposure. VIX is now bearish.
• Gold: 43 Long Vs. 60K Short – Gold remains neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P and gold. At the same time, commercials now have a very large short position on the Nasdaq. That is important. VIX turned bearish. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Q-4 Earnings. 
• Friday, February 5th: Payroll/Unemployment

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – January 22nd, 2016 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of January 5th, 2016

Currencies: 

• USD:  1K Long Vs. 53K Short – No changes. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 81K Long Vs. 2K Short – Significant increase in long interest. Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 132K Long Vs. 3K Short – Significant increase in net long exposure. British pound remains bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 72K Long Vs. 35K Short – Neutral.
• Euro: 142K Long Vs. 13K Short – Slight decrease in net short exposure. Euro remains bullish.
• Australian Dollar: 60K Long Vs. 3K Short – Significant decrease in net long exposure. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar rally. This is consistent with our view that the FED won’t raise rates. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 239K Long Vs. 313K Short – Net neutral position remains.
• Nasdaq 100-Mini: 12K Long Vs. 169K Short – Sizable short position. Slight increase in net short position.
• VIX: 57K Long Vs. 57K Short –  Neutral
• Gold: 55 Long Vs. 35K Short – Gold is back to being neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P, VIX and gold. At the same time, commercials now have a very large short position on the Nasdaq. That is important. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Friday – January 15th: Retail Sales

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – January 8th, 2016 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of October 27th, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  3K Long Vs. 54K Short – No changes. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 40K Long Vs. 18K Short – Slight increase in short interest. Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 55K Long Vs. 19K Short – Slight decrease in net short interest. British pound remains bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 89K Long Vs. 2K Short – Significant increase in net long exposure. Japanese Yen is now very bullish.
• Euro: 112K Long Vs. 55K Short – Significant increase in net long exposure. Euro is now bullish.
• Australian Dollar: 103K Long Vs. 20K Short –  No changes. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar rally. This is consistent with our view that the FED won’t raise rates. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 473K Long Vs. 382K Short – Net neutral position remains. Sizable decrease in net long exposure.
• Nasdaq 100-Mini: 26K Long Vs. 186K Short – Sizable short position.
• VIX: 44K Long Vs. 81K Short – Slight decrease in net short exposure.
• Gold: 51 Long Vs. 116K Short – No changes. Gold is now bearish.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P. We have also witnessed a decline in net short exposure in VIX. At the same time, commercials now have a very large short position on the Nasdaq. That is important. Gold is now negative.

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Q-3 Earnings
• Friday: Unemployment/Payroll Date

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – October 30th, 2015 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of October 20th, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  2K Long Vs. 56K Short – No changes. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 42K Long Vs. 15K Short – Slight increase in short interest. Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 55K Long Vs. 21K Short – Significant increase in net short interest. British pound remains bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 71K Long Vs. 25K Short – No net changes. Japanese Yen is still bullish.
• Euro: 88K Long Vs. 69K Short – Slight increase in net short exposure. Euro is now neutral
• Australian Dollar: 102K Long Vs. 19K Short-  Slight decrease in net short position. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound,  Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar rally. EU is neutral. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 550K Long Vs. 378K Short – Net neutral position remains. No major changes
• VIX: 36K Long Vs. 90K Short – No major changes.
• Gold: 51 Long Vs. 116K Short – Slight increase in net short position. Gold is now bearish.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P. Gold is now negative.

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Q-3 Earnings
• Tuesday: Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence
• Wednesday: FED Interest Rate Decision.
• Thursday: GDP

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – October 23rd, 2015 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of September 22nd, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  2K Long Vs. 48K Short – Slight increase in net short position. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 51K Long Vs. 0K Short – Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 56K Long Vs. 9K Short – Slight decrease in net long interest. British pound is remains bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 72K Long Vs. 7K Short – No changes. Japanese Yen is still bullish.
• Euro: 92K Long Vs. 18K Short – Slight increase in net short exposure. Significant long position remains. No changes.
• Australian Dollar: 92K Long Vs. 1K Short-  Slight decrease in net long position. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar rally. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 518K Long Vs. 318K Short – Net neutral position remains. No major changes
• VIX: 47K Long Vs. 93K Short – Slight decrease in net short position.
• Gold: 62K Long Vs. 61K Short – No major changes. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P and Gold. Please note, commercials have substantially increased their net short position in VIX. That could be due to them expecting a market rally and/or us remaining in a trading range. Considering the fact that S&P is neutral, no definitive conclusion can be ascertained at this time in regards to VIX. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Q-3 Earnings
• Thursday: ISM Manufacturing
• Friday: Unemployment/Payroll

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – September 25th, 2015 Google