Tag: COT Report

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of January 19th, 2016

Currencies: 

• USD:  1K Long Vs. 57K Short – No changes. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 79K Long Vs. 2K Short – No changes. Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 173K Long Vs. 4K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. British pound remains bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 68K Long Vs. 85K Short – Neutral.
• Euro: 132K Long Vs. 34K Short – Slight increase in net short exposure. Euro remain bullish.
• Australian Dollar: 94K Long Vs. 1K Short – Significant increase in net long exposure. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro  and Australian Dollar rally. Japanese Yen is neutral. This is consistent with our view that the FED won’t raise rates by much. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 380K Long Vs. 331K Short – Net neutral position remains.
• Nasdaq 100-Mini: 16K Long Vs. 140K Short – Sizable short position. Slight decrease in net short position.
• VIX: 41K Long Vs. 62K Short –  Slight increase in net short exposure. Neutral position remains.
• Gold: 49 Long Vs. 45K Short – Gold is back to being neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P, VIX and gold. At the same time, commercials now have a very large short position on the Nasdaq. That is important. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Q-4 Earnings. 
• Wednesday, January 27th: FED Interest Rate Decision & Statement.
• Thursday, January  28th: Durable Goods
• Friday, January 29th: GDP Data

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – January 22nd, 2016 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of October 13th, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  2K Long Vs. 56K Short – No changes. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 44K Long Vs. 4K Short – Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 64K Long Vs. 2K Short – Slight increase in net long interest. British pound remains bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 69K Long Vs. 17K Short – No net changes. Japanese Yen is still bullish.
• Euro: 92K Long Vs. 46K Short – Slight increase in net short exposure. Significant long position remains.
• Australian Dollar: 102K Long Vs. 24K Short-  Slight increase in net short position. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar rally. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 536K Long Vs. 363K Short – Net neutral position remains. No major changes
• VIX: 37K Long Vs. 95K Short – No major changes.
• Gold: 56 Long Vs. 97K Short – Slight increase in net short position. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P and Gold. Please note, commercials have substantially increased their net short position in VIX. That could be due to them expecting a market rally and/or us remaining in a trading range. Considering the fact that S&P is neutral, no definitive conclusion can be ascertained at this time in regards to VIX. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Just Q-3 Earnings

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – October 16th, 2015 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of October 5th, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  2K Long Vs. 56K Short – Slight increase in net short position. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 49K Long Vs. 1K Short – Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 57K Long Vs. 5K Short – Slight increase in net long interest. British pound remains bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 71K Long Vs. 8K Short – No net changes. Japanese Yen is still bullish.
• Euro: 92K Long Vs. 24K Short – Slight increase in net short exposure. Significant long position remains. No changes.
• Australian Dollar: 100K Long Vs. 10K Short-  Slight increase in net short position. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar rally. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 586K Long Vs. 357K Short – Net neutral position remains. No major changes
• VIX: 44K Long Vs. 101K Short – Slight increase in net short position.
• Gold: 57 Long Vs. 81K Short – Slight increase in net short position. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P and Gold. Please note, commercials have substantially increased their net short position in VIX. That could be due to them expecting a market rally and/or us remaining in a trading range. Considering the fact that S&P is neutral, no definitive conclusion can be ascertained at this time in regards to VIX. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Q-3 Earnings
• Wednesday: Retail Sales
• Thursday:Consumer Price Index

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – October 9th, 2015 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of June 2nd, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  5K Long Vs. 72K Short – Significant short interest remains. No change.
• Canadian Dollar: 38K Long Vs. 46K Short – Neutral
• British Pound: 76K Long Vs. 36K Short – Commercials decreased their short position – more long now.
• Japanese Yen: 125K Long Vs. 3K Short – Sizable increase in net long exposure.
• Euro: 137K Long Vs. 14K Short – Significant long position.
• Australian Dollar: 111K Long Vs. 23K Short- Significant long position. Substantial increase in long position this week.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while British Pound, Euro, Yen and Australian Dollar rally. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 200K Long Vs. 638K Short – Slight increase in short interest. A heavy short position remains.
• VIX: 116K Long Vs. 13K Short – Heavy long position suggests market turbulence ahead.
• Gold: 62K Long Vs. 103K Short – No real change from last week. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the stock market to decline as volatility surges higher.

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• June 11 – Retail Sales

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – June 6th, 2015 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of May 26th, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  5K Long Vs. 72K Short – Significant short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 38K Long Vs. 56K Short – Neutral -No change from last week.
• British Pound: 76K Long Vs. 41K Short – Commercials decreased their long position – more neutral now.
• Japanese Yen: 111K Long Vs. 13K Short – Big increase in net long exposure.
• Euro: 143K Long Vs. 22K Short – Significant long position.
• Australian Dollar: 97K Long Vs. 32K Short- Significant long position.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while British Pound, Euro, Yen and Australian Dollar rally. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 200K Long Vs. 597K Short – Slight decrease in short interest. However, a heavy short position remains.
• VIX: 111K Long Vs. 15K Short – Heavy long position suggests market turbulence ahead.
• Gold: 60K Long Vs. 102K Short – Slight decrease in short interest. More neutral now.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the stock market to decline as volatility surges higher.

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• June 1 – ISM Manufacturing PMI

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – May 23rd, 2015Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of May 19th, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  4K Long Vs. 72K Short – Significant short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 39K Long Vs. 57K Short – Neutral -No change from last week.
• British Pound: 84K Long Vs. 43K Short – Commercials decreased their long position – more neutral now. .
• Japanese Yen: 81K Long Vs. 35K Short – Neutral – Slightly increased their long exposure.
• Euro: 150K Long Vs. 29K Short – Significant long position.
• Australian Dollar: 93K Long Vs. 35K Short- Significant long position.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while British Pound, Euro and Australian Dollar rally. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 187K Long Vs. 647K Short – Heavy short position remains.
• VIX: 107K Long Vs. 19K Short – Heavy long position suggests market turbulence ahead.
• Gold: 54K Long Vs. 118K Short – Significant increase in short interest. Gold might decline.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the stock market to decline as volatility surges higher. Gold might decline further.

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• May 26 – Durable Goods

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – May 23rd, 2015Google