Tag: COT

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of September 15th, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  2K Long Vs. 45K Short – Slight decrease in net short position. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 70K Long Vs. 4K Short – No changes. Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 57K Long Vs. 3K Short – Slight decrease in net long interest. British pound is remains bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 70K Long Vs. 5K Short – Substantial decrease in net short interest. Japanese Yen is now bullish
• Euro: 94K Long Vs. 12K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. Significant long position remains. No changes.
• Australian Dollar: 99K Long Vs. 1K Short-  Net decrease in net long position. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar rally. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 635K Long Vs. 493K Short – Net neutral position remains. No major changes
• VIX: 49K Long Vs. 104K Short – Substantial increase in net short position.
• Gold: 71K Long Vs. 57K Short – No major changes. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P and Gold. Please note, commercials have substantially increased their net short position in VIX. That could be due to them expecting a market rally and/or us remaining in a trading range. Considering the fact that S&P is neutral, no definitive conclusion can be ascertained at this time in regards to VIX. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Friday: GDP

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – September 18th, 2015 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of September 8th, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  1K Long Vs. 68K Short – Slight increase in net short position. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 70K Long Vs. 4K Short – Slight net decrease in commercials net long position. Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 84K Long Vs. 8K Short – Slight increase in net long interest. British pound is now bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 125K Long Vs. 101K Short – Substantial net increase in short interest. Japanese Yen is now neutral.
• Euro: 134K Long Vs. 55K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. Significant long position remains. No changes.
• Australian Dollar: 140K Long Vs. 1K Short-  Slight increase in net long position. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro and Australian Dollar rally. Japanese Yen is now net neutral. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 596K Long Vs. 485K Short – Net neutral position remains. Commercials took profit after later August sell-off.
• VIX: 49K Long Vs. 87K Short – Slight increase in net short position. Still net neutral.  Commercials took profit after late August sell-off.
• Gold: 69K Long Vs. 65K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral. This is consistent with the market remaining in a tight, relatively speaking, trading range. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Tuesday: Retail Sales
• Wednesday: Consumer Price Index
• Thursday: FED Interest Rate Decision 

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – September 8th, 2015 Google

I am back. There were some major and interesting changes in COT Reports over the last two weeks. Let’s take a look at that first. 

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of September 1st, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  3K Long Vs. 63K Short – Significant decrease in net short position. Substantial short interest remains.
• Canadian Dollar: 77K Long Vs. 4K Short – Slight net decrease in commercials net long position. Significant long interest remains.
• British Pound: 61K Long Vs. 11K Short – Slight increase in net long interest. British pound is now bullish.
• Japanese Yen: 125K Long Vs. 90K Short – Massive net increase in short interest. Japanese Yen is now neutral.
• Euro: 124K Long Vs. 64K Short – Slight decrease in net long exposure. Significant long position remains. No changes.
• Australian Dollar: 139K Long Vs. 1K Short-  Slight increase in net long position. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro and Australian Dollar rally. Japanese Yen is  now net neutral. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 545K Long Vs. 572K Short – Big swing from large net short position to neutral. Commercials took profit after later August sell-off.
• VIX: 54K Long Vs. 70K Short – Massive swing from a large long position to net neutral.  Commercials took profit after late August sell-off.
• Gold: 69K Long Vs. 73K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral. This is consistent with the market remaining in a tight, relatively speaking, trading range. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• No major market news this week in the US. Only in Asia/EU.

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – September 8th, 2015 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of August 11th, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  4K Long Vs. 84K Short – Significant short interest remains. No major changes.
• Canadian Dollar: 92K Long Vs. 3K Short – Slight net increase in commercials net long position.
• British Pound: 47K Long Vs. 28K Short – Slight increase in net long interest, but remains neutral.
• Japanese Yen: 152K Long Vs. 3K Short – Substantial increase in net long position. This is quite a large long position in Yen.
• Euro: 127K Long Vs. 22K Short – Significant long position remains. No changes.
• Australian Dollar: 133K Long Vs. 1K Short- Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, Euro, Yen and Australian Dollar rally. British pound is neutral. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 297K Long Vs. 556K Short – Few changes. A substantial short position remains.
• VIX: 85K Long Vs. 7K Short – No changes. A substantial long position suggests market turbulence ahead.
• Gold: 83K Long Vs. 61K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the stock market to decline as volatility surges higher. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Wednesday – Consumer Price Index
• Wednesday – FOMC Minutes.
• Thursday/Friday – Jackson Hole Symposium

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – August 14th, 2015 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of August 4th, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  3K Long Vs. 82K Short – Significant short interest remains. No major changes.
• Canadian Dollar: 88K Long Vs. 4K Short – Net increase in commercials net long position.
• British Pound: 46K Long Vs. 37K Short – Remains neutral.
• Japanese Yen: 134K Long Vs. 16K Short – Net decrease in short interest. A large long position in Yen remains.
• Euro: 133K Long Vs. 17K Short – Significant long position remains. No changes.
• Australian Dollar: 135K Long Vs. 1K Short- Significant long position. Slight increase in long position. Massive long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, Euro, Yen and Australian Dollar rally. British pound is neutral. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 279K Long Vs. 538K Short – Few changes. A substantial short position remains.
• VIX: 74K Long Vs. 18K Short – No changes. A substantial long position suggests market turbulence ahead.
• Gold: 86K Long Vs. 57K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the stock market to decline as volatility surges higher. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Q-2 Earnings.
• Thursday – Retail Sales

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – August 7th, 2015 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of JULY 7th, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  2K Long Vs. 69K Short – Significant short interest remains. No major changes.
• Canadian Dollar: 36K Long Vs. 2K Short – Canadian Dollar short position has vanished. Commercials are now net long.
• British Pound: 45K Long Vs. 27K Short – Substantial increase in commercial net short position. More neutral now.
• Japanese Yen: 135K Long Vs. 33K Short – Net increase in short interest. Yet, a large long position in Yen remains.
• Euro: 135K Long Vs. 11K Short – Significant long position remains. No change.
• Australian Dollar: 94K Long Vs. 1K Short- Significant long position. Slight increase in long position

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, Euro, Yen and Australian Dollar rally. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 246K Long Vs. 506K Short – Marginal increase in net short exposure. A substantial short position remains.
• VIX: 70K Long Vs. 27K Short – Slight decrease in net long exposure. Still, a heavily long position suggests market turbulence ahead.
• Gold: 80K Long Vs. 78K Short – No change. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the stock market to decline as volatility surges higher. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Q-2 Earnings.
• July 14th – Retail Sales
• July 16th – Fed’s Yellen Testimony
• July 17th – Consumer Price Index

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – July 11th, 2015 Google

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of June 23rd, 2015

Currencies: 

• USD:  1K Long Vs. 59K Short – Significant short interest remains. No major change.
• Canadian Dollar: 44K Long Vs. 37K Short – No change. Neutral
• British Pound: 45K Long Vs. 7K Short – Commercials decreased their short position – more long now.
• Japanese Yen: 129K Long Vs. 1K Short – Large long position in Yen remains.
• Euro: 125K Long Vs. 8K Short – Significant long position remains. Slight increase in long position.
• Australian Dollar: 74K Long Vs. 3K Short- Significant long position. Slight increase in long position

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while British Pound, Euro, Yen and Australian Dollar rally. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

• E-Mini S&P 500: 237K Long Vs. 482K Short – Significant decrease in net short exposure. Although, a substantial short position remains.
• VIX: 94K Long Vs. 15K Short – Slight decrease in long position. Still, heavy long position suggests market turbulence ahead.
• Gold: 69K Long Vs. 95K Short – No change. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the stock market to decline as volatility surges higher.

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

• Q-2 Earnings.
• July 8th – FOMC Minutes

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – July 3rd, 2015 Google