Attention: Central Bankers Are Terrified Of 2007-2009 Repeat

As we reported here earlier, debt securitization and junk bond sales are surging higher. In many cases surpassing their 2007/08 levels. As the FT article below shows, some Central Bank officials are now starting to ring the bell, indicating that today’s situation is not that dissimilar to the one preceding 2007-09 collapse. 

This should not come a surprise to the readers of this blog. Today environment is nothing more than a continuation of disastrous FED policies. Instead of letting defaults work through the system after 2008 collapse, the FED stepped on the Credit Accelerator, flooding the market with the same money that caused the problem in the first place. I am truly dumbfounded why it is so difficult for most people (including our “brilliant” economists and FED officials) to see this. 

Once the bear market of 2014-2017 kicks into high gear and the US Economy slips into deep recession, excesses above will be exposed, once again. As Warren Buffett says, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”. You must protect yourself now. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here. 

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FT Writes: Credit bubble fears put central bankers on edge

By Tracy Alloway, Michael Mackenzie and Arash Massoudi in New York

On a mild spring day in New York, representatives from Citigroup set out to introduce investors to the bank’s new subprime securitisation platform.

This might sound like a scene plucked from 2007, at the height of the credit bubble that eventually sparked the financial crisis, but Citi’s “roadshow” began only this week. The US bank is prepping the market in advance of a debut securitisation from OneMain Financial, its subprime consumer lending arm.

In doing so, Citi is aiming to tap into a wave of investor demand for higher-yielding securities created from sliced-and-diced loans that it makes to riskier borrowers.

The planned sale is symptomatic of a wider development in credit markets as the thirst for increased returns has led to fears about possible overheating and provoked public soul-searching by central bankers.

Parts of Wall Street’s securitisation machine have shifted into higher gear, while sales of junk-rated bonds have surged and lending to highly-leveraged companies has surpassed its pre-2008 level.

“We are beginning to see the build-up of speculative excess. It’s more advanced in the US, and starting to come through in Europe,” says Chris Watling, chief market strategist at Longview Economics.

Central bankers have been debating whether monetary policy should take into account asset bubbles ever since the low interest rates cultivated under Alan Greenspan were blamed for herding investors into riskier investments in the years preceding 2008.

However, in recent months, that debate has become increasingly public as credit markets continue their upward trajectory.

While many members of the Federal Reserve Board argue that the central bank should not risk derailing longer-term economic growth in order to respond to potential market excesses, some have argued the reverse.

Daniel Tarullo, Fed board governor and its top banking regulator, said in February that the central bank should reserve the option of using monetary policy to fight latent bubbles.

Jeremy Stein, Mr Tarullo’s colleague on the board, argued late last month that the central bank should incorporate financial stability risks into its monetary policy. He added that the Fed should consider raising interest rates when estimates of so-called risk premiums in the bond market are abnormally low.

Just days before Mr Stein’s speech, one such risk premium measurement had dropped to its lowest level since early 2007. The difference, or “spread,” between Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s index of high-yield bonds and 10-year US Treasuries, fell to 291 basis points – not far from the 288 bps recorded in 2007.

“Here is where one can get into hard-to-resolve debates about bubble spotting and about whether one can expect the Federal Reserve to be smarter than other market participants,” Mr Stein said in the speech.

For bankers, the idea of a central bank using its authority to deflate market bubbles is more than theoretical. They argue that leveraged lending guidance issued last year by regulators including the Fed, is as much about reining-in overly buoyant markets as it is about ensuring that banks do not make loans that are too risky.

“They’re trying to make sure whatever banks hold in leveraged loans is safe,” says one banker at a major lender. “But clearly the second major reason is to curb the market because they’d like to take the wind out of a perceived credit bubble.”

According to market participants, the guidance has yet to have a significant impact.

Banks sold $161.8bn worth of leveraged loans in the first quarter of 2014, according to S&P Capital IQ data. That is below the $189bn sold last year in the same period, but still ranks as one of the highest quarterly levels ever recorded.

“It’s affecting [individual bank] behaviour but I’m not sure it’s affecting the market,” says the banker. “If there’s a significant supply-demand imbalance for a product of any type, it will find its way from the guys who have it to the guys who want it – it’s just going to move to unregulated areas.”

paper prepared for the 2014 US Monetary Policy Forum argued that financial stability risks could arise even outside of the big banks, prompting further discourse over how regulators should be approaching financial stability.

The paper’s message was later echoed by Mr Stein who warned that “the rapid growth of fixed-income funds – as well as other, similar vehicles – bears careful watching.”

According to the paper’s figures, based on Morningstar data, investors worldwide have poured almost $2tn into fixed income funds between the start of 2008 and April 2013, eclipsing the less than $500bn placed into stocks.

“An under-appreciated factor in discussions about owning sectors of the fixed income market is the that of liquidity,” says Michael Fredericks, portfolio manager at BlackRock, meaning that investors may find it difficult to exit their positions should rising interest rates spark a sell-off in credit.

For some analysts, far removed from the responsibility of selling bundles of subprime loans, the question is simply when credit markets will turn – not if.

“It increasingly feels like the credit cycle is on borrowed time,” Hans Lorenzen, credit strategist at Citigroup, said in a note this week.

Attention: Central Bankers Are Terrified Of 2007-2009 Repeat

Credit Bubble Of Mass Destruction Continues To Inflate

It seems as if humans are incapable of learning from their past mistakes. Particularly, the Ivy League Economists and Governments.  

“The amount of debt globally has soared more than 40 percent to $100 trillion since the first signs of the financial crisis as governments borrowed to pull their economies out of recession and companies took advantage of record low interest rates.”

Just think about how staggering of a number that is. $100 Trillion. That is what happens when governments do everything in their power to avoid financial collapse. The problem is, any such financial collapse is brought forward by this same credit. By increasing global debt levels by $30 Trillion since 2007 top, the fools running the show have raised the stakes to unimaginable levels. When the debt collapse finally comes (as it always does), there will be hell to pay. With the bear market of 2014-2017 just around the corner, this credit bomb is about to go off. 

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Credit Bubble Of Mass Destruction Continues To Inflate  Google

credit bubble

The stock of public debt securities reached $43 trillion in June 2013, about 80 percent higher than in mid-2007. Debt issuance by non-financial corporates grew at a similar rate, albeit from a lower base,” analysts Andreas Schrimpf and Branimir Gruic said in the report released on Sunday.

The BIS noted that since the financial crash of 2008 there has been a shift in how money is borrowed — increasingly through debt markets rather than bank lending. With the financial sector curbing lending and opting for more deleveraging, governments have issued debt in their place to kickstart their economies and bail out the financial sector.

The sheer scale of global debt markets is going to remain a very significant factor in the future, according to Bill Blain, a senior fixed income broker at Mint Partners, who predicts that it will keep growing as long as there is demand. He said that new regulations ensure that the financial sector will remain in a “trough” but governments would keep the trend going despite reining back on spending.

This rise in debt issuance only poses a problem if inflation was to rise sharply while there was still slack in the economy, according to Peter Chatwell, an interest rate strategist at Credit Agricole Corporate. This would then force central banks to tighten policy forcefully and destabilize the recovery, he added.

Schrimpf and Gruic noted that sluggish lending from the financial sector – who traditionally lend to international markets – has left a dent in cross-border investment in global debt securities. The share of debt securities held by cross-border investors either as reserve assets or via portfolio investments fell from around 29 percent in early 2007 to 26 percent in late 2012, they said.

“This reversed the trend in the pre-crisis period, when it had risen by 8 percentage points from 2001 to a peak in 2007. It suggests that the process of international financial integration may have gone partly into reverse since the onset of the crisis,” they said in the report.

This is a “headache” for policy-makers, according to Kit Juckes, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Societe Generale. Banks are increasingly drawing their business in to their home countries – a move that is not helpful for growth, and reflects investor and bank caution as a result of the great recession and the European peripheral crisis, he said.

“It isn’t healthy to see money flow less freely around the global economy, but on a positive note, this is likely to be ever so slowly reversed and normalized in the years ahead,” he said, adding that as deleveraging enters its final stages “re-globalization” instead of deeper “balkanization” would occur.

Hey Bernanke, Thanks For All The Drugs

BusinessWeek Writes: Thanking the Fed, Reservedly, for Investors’ Bounty

ben bernanke
Would You Like Another Kilo?

 

Don’t look at me like that—Walgreen (WAG) went full-yuletide in August. In any case, should you find yourself looking at your 401(k) for the first time since the Subprime Swoon, be Thanksgivingukkah-grateful for the extraordinary largesse of this Federal Reserve.

Thanks to outgoing Fed Chairmen Ben Bernanke and the nominee to replace him, Janet Yellen, and their colleagues taking down interest rates to near-zero five years ago and keeping them there—on top of the Fed’s nearly $4 trillion of creative asset purchases—investors have enjoyed the restoration of more than $13 trillion in U.S. equity market value. That’s called multiplier effect. And it’s also called remorse, if you were one of the record numbers who bolted stocks altogether and are scrambling to get back in now, after indexes have more than doubled. It’s also called financial repression if you’re a saver having to eat negative real rates on your hard-earned cash.

Read The Rest Of The Article

I have no words. You have got to be f#&*$ kidding me.  I don’t know how many times I have to say this, but thanking Bernanke or the FED would be equivalent to thanking your drug dealer for getting you hooked on crack cocaine, or thanking a hooker for giving you AIDS or thanking God for helping you get home again while driving drunk.

All of these things might feel good at the moment, but they will eventually catch up and kill you. What most people do not understand is that by pumping a tremendous amount of money into the economy over the last 2 decades, the FED has created bubble after bubble in various asset classes.  All while undermining the overall economy.

The stimulus works great until it doesn’t work anymore. We are at that point. With massive amounts of credit flooding the system, the velocity of that money is having less and less impact. When the tide turns, there will be hell to pay not only for the people who are directly involved in the scheme, but for everyone. Not only for the US Economy, but now for the global economy. Everyone.

The sad part is, all of this was preventable is we had the fortitude to stick to sound economic principals. Instead we have a bunch of whack jobs on every level of our government whose sole purpose is to max out our credit cards and kick the can down the road. The upcoming bear market of 2014-2017 will make all of this very clear. 

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