4/14/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 17 points (+0.09%) and the Nasdaq down 2 points (-0.03%). 

I typically shy away from giving direct “financial advice”, but this one is a no-brainer. At least based on my long-term mathematical and timing work.

I am executing this “Trade” for myself and I have instructed my entire family to do the same. Most importantly, I believe this “Trade” will allow individuals to do the incredible. That is, to legally loot the bank of their choice. Literally. A truly once in a lifetime opportunity.

Let’s start from the beginning.

1. Over the last two years I have maintained that we will see a double bottom in the 10-Year Treasury Note. Here is a sample post from last year 10-Year Note: All Systems Are A Go For A Double Bottom
2. Well, guess what…..we are nearly there. As the chart below shows.

Whether we still push lower, into a double bottom, perhaps even lower is pointless for the purposes of this post. The time to act is NOW. I would say you have about 1-12 months to get this trade done. And the sooner you do it, the better.

What is this trade? 

1. We are witnessing a multi-generational bottom in interest rates. Refinance and lock in your loans at a fixed rate and do it now. The longer the duration of the loan the better.
2. The FED will be forced to inflate away or monetize the dollar or our massive debt.
3. Most of your fixed loan value (not underlying asset) will be wiped out through inflation. In other words, you will stick it to the bank. Big time.

Why/How?

Here is what will happen over the next 10-20 years. At least based on my mathematical and timing work.

We are are about to go through a major bear market leg. Since the FED is sitting at zero interest rates already, they will be forced to do additional rounds of QE and to even go Interest rate negative. My work suggests that the US Dollar and Interest rates will have none of that. At a certain point.

The US Dollar will decline while Interest rates head higher (market rates). Additional stimulus will finally get inflation going. An inflation that will accelerate over the next 10-15 years. Think in terms of 1966-1982 period of time.

By the time it is all said and done, in about 20 years, your fixed mortgage might be inflated away to the tune of 75-90%. To the point where a $500,000  fixed 30 year loan and $3,000 monthly payment today, might only be worth about $100,000 or $500 monthly in today’s money. The rest of its value will simply vanish.

In other words, you win and banks lose……..for once.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 14th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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3/30/2016 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 84 points (+0.48%) and the Nasdaq up 22 points (+0.47%) 

I have some good news for the bears. It appears the bulls have declared victory. Not a single bear article to be found and as far as most investors are concerned, the worst is behind us. A congratulatory pat on the back is all that is needed. Consider the following.

• ‘Godfather’ of chart analysis says the stock-market correction is over
• Trader: Listen to Yellen, ignore fundamentals
• Meet the millennials looking to get rich or die tryin’ with one of Wall Street’s riskiest oil plays

My god…..forget the fundamentals, correction is over, “get rich or die tryin” investment advice from high school juniors, every bull gets a gold star, etc…….didn’t we see this movie in 2000? I don’t think I have to tell you how this ends.

Back on the planet Earth, the following fundamental reality persists…..

• Central banks ‘running out of time’ to reflate economies: Bill Gross
• S&P 500’s PEG Ratio at All-Time Highs
• Why I’m So Negative; A Bear-Market Rally; Rig Fight!: Best of Kass
• The number that tells us the economy might be doomed

Now, I understand that the analysis above is a hell of a lot more boring than an advice from a teenager who trades leveraged derivatives in the oil market, but still, the following question persists…..

Did the fundamentals change in a material way since January 20th bottom? 

Sure, Janet Yellen became quite a bit more “dovish” with the interest rates remaining at ZERO and most central bankers around the world did go all in (Central Bank Mafia Goes All In), but I for one don’t consider that to be structurally significant. It is more like hot smoke being blown up investors *#@es.

The following fundamental reality persists. The S&P is selling at the third highest valuation in history. Right behind 1929 and 2000 tops and on par with 2007 top. In the meantime, GAAP earnings are down 18% from a year ago. Forward guidance is expected to decline further during Q-1 earnings season and macro data around the world is pointing to a recession. We are leveraged  to the hilt.  The FED is out of time and recession fighting tools. Investor complacency is all around (VIX/VXX). Etc….

In other words…….what can possibly go wrong???

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 30th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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3/28/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 19 points (+0.11%) and the Nasdaq down 7 points (-0.14%) 

The Dow topped out on October 11th, 2007 at 14,280. By March 6th, 2009 it was sitting at 6,460 or with a 55% loss. But here is what’s interesting. The imbalances we are witnessing today are exponentially greater than what we saw in 2007-2009. Consider the following……

2007 Imbalances: 

• U.S. government debt (as narrowly defined) stood about $8 trillion.

• The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was under $800 billion.

• 10-year Treasuries yielded approximating 4.5%, giving the Fed had some leeway to cut interest rates if necessary to fight a crisis or business downturn.

• The subprime-mortgage bubble peaked at about $1.3 trillion.

• Aggregate government debt was under $10 trillion.

• The derivatives market’s notional value was $182 trillion.

• A homeless man named Johnny Moon was reportedly able to get some $600,000 of mortgages to speculate in the U.S. housing market.

As bad as all of that was, consider Today’s Imbalances:

• U.S. government debt totals about $19 trillion, or some $11 trillion more than it was in 2008.

• The Fed’s balance sheet is approaching $5 trillion vs. $800 billion in 2008.

• Short-term interest rates are 0.25% compared to 4.5% back in the day.  With interest rates at near-record lows, there’s little opportunity for the Fed to further expand its balance sheet.

• The derivatives market is currently larger than $500 trillion vs. $182 trillion in 2008.

• Central-bank capital has dropped to 0.8% of assets from 4.5%.

• The size of the subprime bubble was $1.3 trillion, but the size of sovereign borrowing is $7 trillion today.

• Our government has to borrow money to simply pay interest, and monetary policy is hamstrung by near-zero interest rates.

• There are no more homeless people getting mortgages to buy homes, but there’s a Danish sex therapist whose bank is paying her interest (instead of the other way around) on a loan that’s financing her matchmaking Web site.

Not a big deal???

I would certainly disagree. The imbalances above will have to be addressed one way or another. They will not simply go away. We do not live in a magical world where the FED geniuses have created a perpetual money machine.

If anything, it is highly probable, especially if you consider today’s general overvaluation levels, that the imbalances above will be addressed in a violent fashion. And I would say sooner rather than later.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 23rd, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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3/22/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 41 points (-0.23%) and the Nasdaq up 13 points (+0.27%) 

The bulls are back. As confident as ever……

• Why hedge fund pain could mean stock market gains
• BlackRock Says There Won’t Be a Recession, Bearish on Treasuries

Investors are getting caught paddling upstream, and as they turn their bearish boats around, the tide will continue to rise for stocks, argues Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors.

“Economic indicators this week may show the U.S. economy experienced a mild slowdown but is not headed for a recession,” Richard Turnill, the global chief investment strategist, wrote in a report Monday on the company’s website. Investors should have an “underweight” position in Treasuries, according to the report. New York-based BlackRock manages $4.6 trillion

But not everyone thinks that way.

• Charts Say Sell as Stock Market Looks Untradeable Now

I wouldn’t necessarily say “Untradeable”. We need a longer-term perspective here.

NYSE is the largest index by capitalization. One can argue that the index topped out in June of 2014. Exactly 5.25 years after an important March 2009 bottom. Or right on schedule as per my 5 year cycle forecast.

Throughout last year I told your that the NYSE was either distributing or consolidating. Hinting at distribution due to slowing economy, overvaluations, the end of QE, higher interest rates, etc….. It is now clearly evident that the index was indeed distributing throughout 2014 and 2015.

Today’s question is……..is the bottom in? 

My answer is simple. Why would it be? If anything, things are worst now then they were 6-24 months ago. Particularly if you take today’s valuation levels into consideration.

GAAP earnings are down 18% year over year. More worrisome, many expect this trend to accelerate. Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is close to 26. The 3rd highest level in history of the stock market.

So, unless the US Economy stages some sort of miraculous double digit growth recovery here, I think the answer fairly clear.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 22nd, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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3/21/2017 – A positive day with Dow Jones up 21 points (+0.12%) and the Nasdaq up 13 points (+0.28%) 

In the past we have looked at how out of touch with reality today’s GAAP vs. non-GAAP earnings are. Case and point…..

• Carl Icahn: Earnings Are Shockingly Overinflated
• GAAP Earnings Collapse 18% As Valuations Approach “Insane Levels”

Here is the latest.

Companies haven’t fudged their numbers this much since the financial crisis

“The gap between GAAP (reported) and pro forma (adjusted) EPS continued to widen in 4Q, with the GAAP/Pro forma ratio of 0.74 still at its most extreme levels since 2009,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Savita Subramanian said on Monday. “Trailing four-quarter (2015) GAAP EPS came in at $87 vs. $118 for pro forma EPS.”

And that goes to the heart of the matter. GAAP earnings are collapsing at the fastest pace since 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, stocks are still selling at historic “bubble” level valuations.

Once again, the market was selling at higher prices in 1929 and 2000 tops. We are now on par with 2007 top. We all know how all of that ended.

Now, an argument can be made that the US Economy and earnings are about to accelerate higher and resolve the imbalances above. Yet, I would like someone to explain to me exactly how that would happen.

Recall, most of the earning growth over the last few years, or since 2009, was liquidity driven (QE, zero interest rates, stock buybacks, etc). There very little evidence to suggest that we will miraculously recover.

For that to happen we would need to see productivity gains, new technologies, CAPEX and growing wages across corporate America. We are not seeing any of that. Again, what the FED did is it infused a dying patient (post 2008 economy) with massive amounts of “heroin and cocaine” in order to stimulate economic activity. Now that the effects of those drugs are wearing off, there is no fuel left.

What’s more, any more “stimulus” is likely to kill the patient. Invest accordingly.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 21st, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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3/14/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 16 points (+0.09%) and the Nasdaq up 1 point (+0.04%) 

David Stockman delivers a very simple message. While the US Economy is hitting a major deceleration point and GAAP earnings are down 18%, the stock market is being driven ever higher into a fantasy land. And that can only end one way. I couldn’t agree more with David’s view and I highly recommend you watch the video below.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 14th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

3/7/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 66 points (+0.39%) and the Nasdaq down 9 points (-0.19%)

I had to shake my head in disbelief so many times over the weekend, I think might have sprained my neck. To save you the trouble, here is the best of it……

• China’s top economic planner: ‘hard landing’ impossible

“I can say, China’s economy will absolutely not have a hard landing,” Xu said. “The so-called predictions for a hard landing will definitely come to nothing. Please rest assured, this possibility does not exist.”

Famous last words? You bet. If you should have learned anything from this blog over the last few years it’s the following. When top officials go out of their way to issue such a statement, the exact opposite is true. That is to say, run…..don’t walk away from China.

• Canada plans to experiment with giving people unconditional free money

Finland and the Netherlandshave already shown their interest in giving people a regular monthly allowance regardless of working status, and now Ontario, Canada is onboard. The premise: send people monthly checks to cover living expenses such as food, transportation, clothing, and utilities — no questions asked.

Eh? Hey, why the hell not. While at it, why not go out with a bang Canada. Forget about covering monthly expenses. I think everyone should get a Ferrari and a $1 Million allowance. I am amazed at the fact that politicians do not understand simple math, let alone basic economic principals.

• Goldman Sachs Sees Best Time in Two Decades to Buy S&P 500 Calls

It’s the best time to buy bullish options on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in 20 years, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says. The U.S. benchmark has a 21 percent probability of rising 5 percent in the next month, according to a model by the New York bank that looks at free-cash-flow yield, return on equity, Institute for Supply Management data and capacity utilization. The options market is pricing in only a 5 percent chance the S&P 500 will move as much.

Yep, it is as simple as that. Load up on call options and make a fortune. I am just wondering who would be stupid enough to write the above calls. Oh wait ?!?!

But not everyone is as optimistic…….

• Uber-bear Bob Janjuah thinks that in spite of a recent rally, the S&P will drop about 500 points this year

“To highlight that, in my view, stocks’ counter-trend bounce off the February lows has now run its course and I believe we are – in early March – likely to see the onset of the next leg weaker in risk, vs stronger in core duration,” Janjuah wrote in a note Friday. “I expect this next leg of weakness to last three to five weeks and to result in new lows so far in this cycle in stocks (S&P500 into the 1700s) and new lows in core government bond yields (target 1.5% in 10yr USTs).”

That sounds about right…..

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 7th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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Impossible Is Nothing  Google

3/3/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 45 points (0.27%) and the Nasdaq up 4 points (+0.09%) 

If you have no short-term memory, as is the case with most “professionals” on Wall Street, investment sentiment was downright scary just two short weeks ago. With numerous investors and market pundits calling for an all out crash and financial Armageddon. I wrote about it at that time.

Financial Media Predicts Armageddon – Time To Go Long? (Feb 10th)

Has anything changed since then?

Not fundamentally, but investment sentiment did swing in the opposite direction. With numerous technical indicators now flashing a red light in the “extremely overbought” territory.

But let’s stop for a second to consider our true economic backdrop with two opposite points of views.

• Druckenmiller: Economy won’t hit ‘escape velocity’
• Fed’s Williams convinced U.S. economy will ‘power ahead’

The question is…..whom do you believe?

I will let you decide, but I think the answer is fairly straight forward here. While Mr. Druckenmiller is a Billionaire investor,  Mr. Williams verbally BS the market every chance he gets.

Then, there is this.

•  This chart shows the current stock market rally is no reason to get too comfortable

While true, these two charts below are even more important in terms of long-term forecasting. I have described both in great detail in the past.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 3rd, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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Who Cancelled Financial Armageddon? Google