1/15/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 103 points (-0.59%) and the Nasdaq down 69 points (-1.48%).
I thought I have heard every bullish argument until I have heard this. Get this, despite the Dow being up 8.17% and the Nasdaq being up 14% in 2014, apparently we had a “stealth correction” during the year. Better yet, because of this stealth correction the stock market is about to push much higher. Just as it did after 1994. The stealth correction investors missed
“Looking back at 2014, what was overlooked—and what was glaring to us—is that the S&P 500 had this great year but most stocks didn’t have as great of a year. This is the stealth bear market we are talking about. Your average median stock, specifically the small and mid-caps, had a much more sideways year. Yet if history is a guide, that may be the prelude to a great 2015 for stocks all around.”
“This is actually very reminiscent of the behavior we saw in 1994 where there was a similar ‘stealth bear market’ in a lot of small- and mid-cap stocks,” he said. “Back in ’94, small caps underperformed for most of the year. And then something important happened late in the year—there was a divergence in activity where the small caps fell to a new 52-week low and the S&P 500 did not. There was a subsequent reversal and that really helped stage the next leg of the advance.” -Oppenheimer & Co.
Nice try, even North Korea would be proud of the nonsense above. There are multiple problems here. First, we had a real correction in 1994 where the Dow declined 12% top to bottom. Second, we had a strong positive year in 2014 that had nothing to do with 1994. Cyclically or otherwise. Finally and most importantly, 1994 marked the beginning of the final 5-year bull market blow off cyclical run in the overall 1982-2000 secular bull market. Today, we are still in a secular bear market that will only complete in 2017.
That is to say, the premise above is a whole lot of baloney. There will be a big correction off today’s bubble levels and those who believe otherwise will take a major beating. Just as they did in 2008.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 15th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Since about the start of 2014 I have maintained that when a bear market of 2014-2017 kicks in, a number of things will happen. Junk bonds will blow sky high, 10-Year Note will test 1.5% (double bottom) and the stock market will drift lower. Driving both bulls and bears up the wall in the process.
