Tag: daily update

12/3/2014 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 33 points (+0.18) and the Nasdaq up 19 points (+0.39%)

While Wal Mart CEO believes we have reached the state of perpetually growing economy, 2% to 3% growth feels perpetual: Wal-Mart CEO, the stock market might be on a verge of a big sell-off.

We all know the story. It is overpriced, overextend and very well could be in the bubble territory. MarketWatch tends to agree: Stock-market correction imminent.  A great look at some of the indicators through charts and I highly encourage you to take a look. Here are some noteworthy excerpts.

However, we are now at the stage where we these sell signals are beginning to occur — some already have and more probably will, within the next day or two. Does this mean the bigger rally is over, and one should heavily short the market? No, but it does mean that a sharp, but probably short-lived correction is at hand.

Yes, I am seeing the same thing 

In summary, the bullish indicators are running out of gas, and sell signals are beginning to occur. However, the positive seasonality of the Post-Thanksgiving time frame will likely limit the downside.

I do agree with most of the facts presented in the article in question, all except one. While I do agree that December is seasonally net positive, it is not a God given right for the stock market to rally. Major sell-offs have happened in past Decembers and it would be foolish to think that a major correction is impossible here. Certainly not after the rally that we’ve just had.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 3rd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

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Is Another Big Stock Market Correction Imminent?  Google

12/2/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 101 points (+0.57%) and the Nasdaq up 28 points (+0.60%). 

Very few people are making money in today’s market. Even though most indices are sitting near their respective all time highs, hedge funds, arguable the smartest money out there, are liquidating at the fastest pace since 2009. Bloomberg: Hedge Funds Shut as Managers Struggle in Year of Two Percent Returns

The question is……why? 

I believe there are two primary reasons. First, there is nothing to invest in. I mean “invest in” and NOT “speculate in”. Everything is extremely expensive and investing at today’s levels would bring unwarranted/massive risk to capital. Hedge fund managers understand that. Second, the FED has distorted financial markets so much that we operate in an environment where the markets never go down. The volatility is gone (as can be clearly seen with the VIX) and the trading rules that more or less worked over the last few decades no longer apply.

So, who is making all the money in this never ending bull market?   

Interestingly enough it is the buy and hold investors who are completely oblivious to where we are today. The very same people who got destroyed in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. They see today’s valuation levels as acceptable, think we are in the early stages of a secular bull market and believe that every sell-off is a buying opportunity. Mom and pop 401K investors fall into this category by default. And while this strategy has worked over the last few years (thanks to the FED), it is just a matter of time before this strategy/view backfires…….BIG TIME.

Make no mistake, once the market resumes its normal operations, the gains above will very quickly turn into big losses. Just as they did after 2000 and 2007 tops.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 2nd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

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The Shocking Truth Behind Why So Very Few Are Making Money In This Stock Market Google

12/1/2014 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 49 points (-0.27%) and the Nasdaq down 64 points (-1.34%).  

As crazy as it may sound, the Nasdaq hasn’t had a correction of today’s magnitude since hitting its secondary bottom on October 16th. And while most market participates will dismiss today market action as a simple correction in this never ending bull market, perhaps they shouldn’t.

Today’s action in Apple (AAPL) is a perfect illustration of that. While everyone is trying to figure out why Apple (the most liquid and the most “amazing” stock ever) cratered close to 6% in 3 trading minutes…..This is why Apple shares sank earlier: Pros……a different question should be asked.

Can the overall market experience such a flash crash? 

If there was ever a time to say “YES“, this is it. Massive overvaluation levels, rampant speculation, no bears, record bullish margin interest, tightening, collapsing yields, undying believe in Santa Claus rally, etc… You get the picture.  Maybe not in 5 minutes, but it wouldn’t be unreasonable to find the Dow at October lows by the end of the year. As always, the stock market tends to do what most people believe is unlikely.

In other words, we might get a Grinch rally instead of a Santa Claus rally everyone expects.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 1st, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com 

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Apple Loses $42 Billion In 53 Seconds. What Caused It?  Google

11/28/2014 – A flat day with the Dow Jones up 0 points (+0.00%) and the Nasdaq up 4 points (+0.09%) 

While most people believe we are in the early stages of a secular bull market, I strongly disagree. In fact, if I had to describe today’s stock market in 2 statements and/or charts it would be……..

Grossly Overvalued:  By most historic measures. As described two days ago, today’s valuation levels are now above 2007 levels. With only 2000 blow off top being higher. Yet, I would argue that such a view is not entirely accurate either. It does not account for massive amounts of credit that are in our financial system. If this factor is accounted for, I believe it would push today’s market above 2000 valuation levels.  Making it the most overvalued market EVER.

Highly Speculative Powder Keg Ready To Explode: As the chart below suggests, everyone is long, fully committed and on margin. With the margin interest being 35% higher than at 2000 and 2007 tops, it is just a matter of time before a typical sell off turns into a massive bear market or worse…..an all out crash.  

In Conclusion: Investors and central bankers often complain that it is impossible to spot bubbles and/or anticipate bear markets. If you can’t spot today’s bubble after looking at the charts above, well, I am afraid your head is firmly planted up your **s.  Make no mistake, this will end in crocodile tears, just as it did after 2000 and 2007 tops.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 28th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com 

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Are We Now In Most Expensive & Speculative Stock Market Ever? The Answer Will Shock You Google

11/26/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 12 points (+0.07%) and the Nasdaq up 29 points (+0.61%). 

Over the last year or so I have been whining that there is nothing to invest in. Not to speculate in, but to invest in over the long-term. That everything is extremely speculative and that most stocks are selling at exuberant valuation levels. It’s nice to see that Warren Buffett’s tends to agree.

Warren Buffett’s ‘Single Best Measure’ Of Stock Market Value Hasn’t Been This High Since The Dotcom Bubble

If you are serious about investing I highly encourage you to read the article above in full. Here is the bottom line. Today’s valuation metrics are extreme and as the chart above suggests we are now approaching 2000 bubble levels. Not a good sign as we all know what happened thereafter.

Yet, there is one primary difference between today’s valuation levels and the year 2000. The blow off top in 2000 was, more or less, driven by sound underlying economics, credit policies and wild speculation.  Today’s valuation levels are driven by the same wild speculative factors plus massive credit infusion and no sound economic principals.

Yes, the corporate earnings are fairly good, but it goes without saying that most of such earnings have been driven by massive credit infusion, QE and buybacks. That is to say, take the FED stimulus away and we might find ourselves in the most expensive/speculative market EVER.

Make no mistake, this is not going to end well.  

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 26th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com 

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Warren Buffett: Valuations Are Now At 2000/2007 Blow Off Levels Google

11/25/2014 -A positive day with the Dow Jones up 2 points (+0.01%) and the Nasdaq up 3 points (+0.07%). 

Something doesn’t smell right. I am talking about a massive divergence between the stock market and the bond market. The stock market is sitting at an all time high and according to most market pundits, this economic miracle is just getting going.

Yet, the bond market is predicting a massive recession. The yield curve continues to compress and the 10-Year note is once again below 2.3%. This can only mean two things. Either the stock market is right and the yields will snap back (what most people are anticipating) – OR- the stock market is in a massive bubble that is about to blow up. I don’t know about you, but my money is on the bond market.

Plus…. consider the following. 

• The stock market is incredibly overpriced. By most valuation metrics. With some valuations pushing 2007 and 2000 (nasdaq) tops.
• The 5 year bull market cycle is now over.
• We are still in a 17 year secular bear market that started in 2000. The last 2-3 years are always down.
• There are no bears left. Everyone has capitulated.
• Bulls see every 5-10% correction as a buying opportunity of a lifetime.
• The FED is tightening and any remaining QE velocity is collapsing.
• Massive divergences. Particularly with the bond market.
• Smart investors like Icahn, Soros, Faber, Rogers are shorting this market.
• Etc….I can list another 20 points, but you get the idea.

Still think the Dow is going much higher in 2015? Yeah……good luck with that.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 25th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com 

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Bonds Vs. Stocks…….Who Is Right?  Google

11/24/2014 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 7 points (+0.04%) and the Nasdaq up 42 points (+0.89%)

As far as most people and financial professionals are concerned 2014 is a done deal.  The gains are in the bag and the fiscal 2015 should be at least just as profitable. Yet, with the S&P already approaching its Goldman Sachs’s 2015 target of 2,100 one important question remains.

Is everyone celebrating too early? 

After all, we have about 25 trading days left in the year and it would take the Dow half this long to fall below its year open or worse, to test its October lows. Impossible? Nothing is impossible when it comes to financial markets. And even thought Decembers are typically net favorable, there are no rules to prevent a substantial decline here.

Particularly, when you take today’s extreme overvaluation and bullish sentiment levels into consideration. That is to say, no one should consider this year over until the closing bell rings on December 31st.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 24th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

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Too Soon To Celebrate? Google

11/21/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 89 points (+0.50%) and the Nasdaq up 11 points (+0.24%).

We live in interesting financial/investment times. I’ll bet you my left kidney, actually no, make that both of my kidneys, that just 10 years ago a surprise rate cut or QE by either China/Japan/EU/US would not have been viewed as a positive development. On the contrary, it would have been viewed as a terrible economic development that would warrant a massive sell-off as opposed to a rally we saw today.

Welcome to the twilight investment world where central banks can simply print their way to prosperity and where the bad news is viewed as “great” news.  But as we all know, that only works until the markets decide to collapse from their bubble valuation and excessive speculation levels. It is never different.

How close are we to that juncture? Consider a small sample of today’s media reports……..

• Dow 20,000 and how we’ll get there
• Here’s how Apple gets to $1 trillion
• Don’t get carried away by rising stocks

That is to say, today’s market conditions are about as bullish as they can get. There are no bears left and everyone expects this market to go up. Yet, when stocks are selling at incredible valuations levels (reminiscent of 2000 and 2007 tops) and when people start forecasting outlandish metrics, typically, the top is not that far behind.

I will leave you this week with a quote from non other than Warren Buffett as the time to be fearful might be at hand…..“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 21st, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Welcome To Investment La-La Land Google