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Stock Market Update. April 9th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart April 9 2014

A strong up day with the Dow Jones up 181 points (1.11%) and the Nasdaq up 71 points (1.72%)

While most of today’s rally was caused by the FOMC Minutes, I give very little weight to such fundamental factors. As explained earlier on this blog, we believe most market participates do not have the correct fundamental macroeconomic framework or understanding associated with today’s market environment.  Certainty not the cyclical market structure.  In fact, we believe the market (particularly the Nasdaq) continues it’s bounce from an oversold position. When the bounce completes itself over the next few trading days, we would expect the market to XXXX. 

Further, our mathematical and timing work continues to show that the bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner. When it starts, it should very quickly retrace most of the gains derived over the last two years (at least). Those who are positioned properly should be rewarded handsomely. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and it’s subsequent internal composition, please Click Here. 

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts here. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here).  

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Stock Market Update. April, 8th 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart April 8 2014 shortA quiet day with the Dow Jones up 10 points (0.06%) and the Nasdaq up 33 points (0.81%)

A typical consolidation day in the market after heavy sell off over the last couple of days. The most oversold issues have bounced the most, hence the strong Nasdaq rebound. With earnings season just around the corner it will be interesting to see if the recent sell off develops into an actual bear market or another opportunity to “buy the dip”. Keep in mind, despite the recent sell off all of the major trends are still pointing up. In fact, it was just a few days ago that the Dow set an all time high. This highlights an important clue as to why most market pundits are not worried.

Should they be?

I believe so. Based on our mathematical and timing work the bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner.  When it starts it will very quickly retrace last years rally and plunge the US Economy into a severe recession. If you would be interested in learning exactly when this bear market will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here. 

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Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 11th, 2014

daily chart Feb 11, 2014

What Position Should You Take or What Position Should You Maintain? Please Click Here

Another  very strong day in the market, with the DOW up 193 points (1.22%) and the Nasdaq up 43 points (+1.03%).

As discussed in our weekly forecast, this stock market rally follow through (over the last two days) makes one of our two scenarios obsolete.  Particularly, our  most likely scenario of the Dow Jones reaching 15,071 by February XXXX, before turning around and bouncing is no longer in play. Which shifts us to the secondary scenario. The bounce that is happening right now.

This bounce is an incredibly important move for the DOW in both price and time. Even though the move started earlier than anticipated, it is incredibly important for the structure of the market and our Bear Market Thesis.  Remember, secondary and lower high in March of 2014 is a must before any structurally sound bear market can resume.

How long will this bounce take and how far will it go?

We have a number of things to consider.  First, the last down leg on the Dow Jones left a bunch large open holes going all the way up to 16,400. It would be ideal for the market to close the gaps before rolling over and starting the next bear leg. Further, a move into the 16,400 by March of 2014 would allow us to liquidate the remainder of our long positions at fairly good prices and get us ready for taking a short position for the remainder of the bear market.  

With that said, February XXXX remains an important turning point in the market. Given today’s market action I believe that this turning point will be a halfway point of the bounce and/or the B leg of the correction (if you are familiar with Elliot Wave). In other words, it is likely to be a turning point for a short correction that will retrace a % of the current rally without compromising the bounce.  Thereafter, the Dow should bounce into the XXXX category by March to structurally complete the up move.

That is why a proper trading strategy we have executed so far is so important. While our work can determine exact turning points over the long term, it get a lot more complicated over the short term.  As such, we must always wait for a technical confirmation before taking or reversing a position.

(***Please note, we have made a number of trades within our sample portfolios today. Please log in to your account to review the trades).

Short-Term Projections & Advice:

The next point of force shifted to February XXXX. A likely intermediary top before a correction of the rally from February 5th takes place. Thereafter, the market should…..  (Would you like to see the exact points of force in both price and time? Plus, what you should do. Please Click Here to +Subscribe to our premium service above). 

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section

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Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 11th, 2014 Google

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Daily Stock Market Update, January 17th, 2014

Daily Chart January 17 2014

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position.  

01/17/2014 – Slow day in the market. While the S&P and NASDAQ were both down to the tune of -0.50%, the DOW inched up 40 points or (+0.25%). As mentioned yesterday, the DOW closed the “DOWN GAP” that was originated on Thursday during the trading day today. We continue to be stuck in the trading range since the beginning of the year. According to my work this has to do with a number of cycles topping out on or around January 1st of this year. In other words, the powerful rally we have witnessed in the late 2013 is running out of steam. While the trend is still Bullish the market is starting to exhibit signs of a fatigue and an eventual roll over. Still, as of today, it is prudent to maintain our long position while we wait for a confirmation. Weekly summary coming up tomorrow.   

Daily Stock Market Update, January 16th, 2014

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End Of Day Stock Market Update, January 13, 2014

Daily Chart January 13 2014

A big down day for the market. With the Dow being down -179 or (-1.09%) for the day. The market continues to falter since the start of January. As I have mentioned in my earlier (weekly updates) there was a significant turning point on January 1st. Yet, this is not the beginning of the bear market I have predicted for 2014. The market is not done quit yet with the upswing. Current market action is the beginning of the top forming process and volatility. For the time being, it would be prudent to remain long while we wait for a confirmation that the bear market has indeed started.   

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End Of Day Stock Market Update, January 13, 2014