11/12/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 254 points (-1.44%) and the Nasdaq down 62 points (-1.22%) 

At this juncture most investors have assumed that the correction is over and that the market will push higher over the next few months/years. In fact, the Dow 20K is once again just around the corner. As is illustrated in the video here  Fed must weigh impact of new financial market landscape: Yellen

“It is crucial to understand the effect of regulations and possible changes in financial intermediation on monetary policy implementation and transmission,” Yellen added.

In other words, “Blah, blah, blah”, we have no idea how we will raise rates without setting off a major correction in MOST asset classes.

On the flip side, I believe this guy has the right idea. The Fed’s going to trick the market, again: Trader

Which is the view I have expressed here so many times before. Particularly, what the FED will do is as clear as night and day. It goes something like this…..

1. Can’t raise or won’t raise. Today’s economy or financial markets won’t be able to digest any rate increases at this juncture. Period. As talked about on this blog so many times before. Why The FED Will Not Raise Interest Rates If the FED members have even an ounce of intelligence, and I believe they do, they realize the same. Point being, they won’t raise in any meaningful way. If at all.
2. If the market declines, issue a “Dovish” statement. Bring it up. (Late September)
3. If the market recovers, issue a “Hawkish” statement. As they did last week. Remember, they don’t want things too overheated.
4. Rinse and repeat while praying the market and/or the US Economy won’t implode on their own.

Finally, no one has stopped to consider the other alternative. That the rally off of August 24th or September 29th lows is not the beginning of the next leg up, but a corrective motion. For instance, the market left quite a few down gaps. Down gaps it will have to close sooner or later. The angular composition of this move higher, at 85 degrees, suggests a counter trend rally, not a structural move higher.

In other words, the market is suggesting this move higher might be a bounce as opposed to a new bull market. If true, today’s “Healthy” correction can very well turn into a major sell-off.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 12th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Just A “Healthy” Correction Or Something More? Google

11/9/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 178 points (-0.99%) and the Nasdaq down 52 points (-1.01%) 

It’s all about the FED. Right?

Not so fast. Last week it was December rate hike priced in? Maybe, experts say  Today, we get a little sell-off and this headline pops up. Wall St. falls as rate hike looms and growth fears linger

Which one is it? 

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the FED is now irrelevant. Why the FED will not raise rates in a meaningful way. 

Instead, investors should concentrate on what the market charts are telling them.

Before we get there, let me ask you something. What has changed between September 29th bottom and today? NOTHING FUNDAMENTAL, only investor sentiment. Where on September 29th investors were freaking out and numerous commentators were calling for an all out market crash, today it’s the opposite. Apparently, the bear market is over and we are getting ready to surge higher.

Yet, fundamentally speaking, we are still in the same conundrum. I continue to maintain that we are witnessing a major slow down in earnings and the US Economy.  Most corporates missing and guiding lower is a clear evidence of that. Forward guidance is down 2%. Sure, some companies like Google, Amazon, etc…. are outperforming, but they are an exception, not the rule. The FED remains between the rock and a hard place. Unable to raise interest rates or stimulate the economy further.

If anything, we are getting numerous confirmations that earnings and the US Economy are falling apart.

As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. The charts below should at least give bulls indigestion. Please note, some of the charts below are a few days/weeks old. Yet, their meaning or composition have not changed.

Chart #1: Hey everyone, look at all of those gaps. If you think the market won’t come back to close them, sooner or later, you are living in a fantasy land. But listen, we are all adults here. Who am I to tell you NOT to buy Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc….at today’s ridiculous valuation levels. As Citigroup suggests, “Be brave and go long”.

Chart #2: Oldie but goodie. Again, overall earnings/economy are slowing down while Shiller’s adjusted S&P ratio is at its 3rd highest level in history. Investors have paid more for stocks on two other occasions. In 1929 and 2000. But, unlike yours truly, most bulls don’t mind paying the same premium today.Chart #3: Look at all of these non-confirmations from Russell 2000, Dow Transports and Biotech (IBB). These are just a few. There are many other.  New Bull market??? Yeah, sure…..to infinity and beyond.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 9th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

These Shocking Charts Lead To  Bullish Nightmares. At Least They Should. Google

11/05/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 3 points (-0.02%) and the Nasdaq down 15 points (-0.29%).

Take TIMING away and I am a value investor at heart. Unfortunately, as I have mentioned here so many times before, there is nothing to invest in on the value side. Everything is incredibly overpriced as is evident from the Shiller’s P/E ratio.

Since the market is fairly quiet today, let’s take a look at some interesting quotes from A letter gives a rare glimpse into one of the world’s most secretive — and most successful — hedge funds I highly encourage you to read the whole thing. It is definitely worth a few minutes of your time.

• “Traditional metrics like cash flow and asset values were being blatantly disregarded by the market in favor of newfound metrics such as eyeballs and clicks. High-tech companies were the darlings in a rapidly rising market while less-sexy value stocks significantly lagged. 
• It turns out buying a dollar for 50 cents is a lot harder than it seems. Every day we added to these positions, thinking we were getting an even better bargain than the day before, only to wake up and watch prices drop further.
• After countless late nights at the office, I would head home, collapse on my couch and stare at the ceiling. I was unable to read, watch television, or fall asleep. All I could do was worry about what we might have missed in our analysis.
• We see distressed sellers, illiquid securities, huge redemptions, and an excess of paranoia and fear. We quickly find a number of interesting opportunities, deploying our significant cash balances as we trade our precious liquidity for mispriced securities. We may lose money in the short term, as we add to our portfolio while prices are dropping. But when markets turn, we expect multiple years of strong profitability.
• Investing in tide markets takes chutzpah. To do so effectively, you need to fly in the face of public opinion, you have to fight normal human emotions, and you have to be prepared to double down on your bets when your conviction is most in question. As Benjamin Graham once said, ‘The investor’s chief problem and even his worst enemy is likely to be himself.’
• On most days, it offers a menu full of bland, unhealthy, and fully-priced choices. We do enough work on the offerings to make sure we aren’t missing anything and often go home feeling unsatisfied and unproductive.
• Warren Buffett said, ‘Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.’ When a great opportunity comes around, it is imperative to size it correctly.
• This is by design. It is much easier to make reasoned decisions without someone screaming at you or second guessing your judgment. It’s not always easy, but we try to maintain the same atmosphere and investment process in all markets.

I had two takeaways from all of the above. First, it is never easy. Even buying dollar bills for 50….25…10 cents can be heart wrenching and downright scary at time. And second, if you can figure out market’s long-term swings (major moves) you would be ahead of 90% of investors out there. Coincidentally, that is exactly what we do at InvestWithAlex.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 5th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

What Value Investors Ought To Know About Investing In Today’s Market Google

11/2/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 165 points (+0.94%) and the Nasdaq up 73 points (+1.45%) 

UBS believes so. In their recent note to their clients

Signs are accumulating that, after 6 1/2 years and price gains of more than 200%, the Bull Market has entered into the “Late Innings.” M&A activity — as revenue growth stays challenged — has been feverish, and the announcement of talks between Pfizer (PFE) and Allergan (AGN) is reminiscent of deals such as AOL/Time Warner in 2000 and RBS/ABN-AMRO in 2007, blockbusters in market leading sectors which were followed by major market tops.

Just a small correction here. What 6.5 years? The NYSE, largest index by capitalization, has topped out in July of 2014. That is 5.5 years into its bull cycle.

2015 is on schedule to become a record breaking M&A year. With 22% increase in global transactions year over year. Yet, as you very well know, we typically see this type of a surge in M&A at the tail end of bull runs. We saw the same thing happening at 2000 and 2007 tops.

In terms of margin debt, we have talked about it before.  Margin Debt Monstrosity & Fed’s Achilles Heel And while it appears margin debt is rolling over and on the way down, it is still 33% above 2007 and 50% above 2000 bubble level highs. Not a good sign as we are already sitting at bubble level valuations. And should margin debt continue with its downtrend, the stock market will follow.

Finally, long-term volatility is sitting at its cycle lows. And while it is incredibly hard to believe that VIX will see 50+ levels again, that is exactly what the history is telling us. When we combine these 3 data points, we get yet another confirmation point that serious market trouble might be just around the corner.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 2nd, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

M&A Activity, Margin Debt and Volatility…..All Point To A Bear Market?  Google

10/27/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 41 points (-0.21%) and the Nasdaq down 5 points (-0.09%)

While I don’t necessary share the same view, most investors believe the rally off of the recent lows has been cause by a more “dovish” FED stance. Perhaps.

Yet, that notion does not address the primary issues. The recent slow down in earnings and numerous economic indicators. For instance, forward earnings guidance is down 2% on the S&P. The highest percentage drop since 2008.

• Declining profit margins threaten the market: Portfolio manager

“That is going to have an effect on all aggregate earnings for the S&P 500,” warns Morganlander. “It means that you’re going to see subpar market returns as S&P [500] earning struggle to get even higher highs. Net margins, we believe, will continue to revert back to its mean, which will have a downward pressure effect on actual profitability.”

I would go even further and suggest that margin and earnings will collapse as soon as our financial market readjust lower. It was an upward driven speculative spiral up and it will work in exactly the same fashion on the way down. With the QE, zero interest rates and stock buybacks now having minimal impact, things should accelerate down.

Which brings us to the FED.

• Rate hikers at the Fed are running out of ammo

“Hence risk assets have rallied for three weeks prompted by the turn to weaker U.S. data that began with the weak September jobs report, as the Fed’s rate decision is understood to be completely data dependent,” he said. “However, clearly for the market rally to be sustained it would be helpful if (the) FOMC statement tilted dovish by acknowledging this turn to weaker U.S. data.”

I have been saying this for a few months, but I guess I will have to say it again, The FED Will Not Raise Interest Rates Simply put, they cannot.

And that is the primary point most investors today miss.

1. The overall stock market is selling at a 3rd highest valuation level in history.
2. Earnings and the US Economy are on the way down. Despite zero interest rates.
3. The FED is now powerless. They cannot raise interest rates nor can they stimulate the economy further. Negative rates will have minimal impact, if any at all.

But, if you believe the setup above translates into a “good time” to be fully invested in stocks or to be bullish, well, who am I to stop you.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 27th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Google

10/22/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 320 points (+1.87%) and the Nasdaq up 80 points (+1.65%) 

I have discussed this over the last few months, but I believe Robert Shiller hits the same nail on the head as well.

Robert Shiller: THIS is the sign we’re in a bubble

Just before the dot-com bubble burst, investors had very little confidence in stock valuations, but they were confident in the market in the short term, he said.

“That’s the sign of the bubble. They’re worried but they’re thinking they’ll get out,” he told CNBC’s“Squawk Box.” “This can suddenly turn, and we’re looking somewhat like that now.”

Bingo. And as I have pointed out here at least 100 times this year, today’s Shiller Adjusted S&P P/E Ratio is the 3rd highest in history. Right behind 1929 and 2000 tops. 

Plus, after a 5-7 year bull run, most investors today assume 2-3 things .

1. Every sell-off is a buying opportunity. “Buy the dip”.
2. The FED will be able to backstop any and all declines or recessions.
3. Someone will ring the bell at the top and everyone will exit the market in an orderly fashion. Holding hands and singing Kumbaya.

It is my hope that most reasonable people will quickly realize how ridiculous all of that sounds. And instead of adhering to such thinking, investors might want to ask themselves the following questions…..

1. What if we have shifted gears into a bear market and every rally should now be sold?
2. What if the FED is powerless….we are already at zero….what else can they do?
3. What if the market corrects itself in a rapid and violent fashion?

I believe those are the right questions to ask. Everything else is just noise.

Listen, as we head into the most dangerous time of the year, not many people anticipate a further correction. My friends still laugh at me when I suggest we might re-test late August lows. An ominous sign? We will soon find out.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 15th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Bulls Declare Victory Google