timing is everything

Stan Druckenmiller made over $1 Billion by betting against the bank of England with George Soros in the early 1990’s. In other words, when he talks, you better pay attention. And what does he have to say today? The exact same thing I have been yapping on this blog for quite a while now.

I know it’s so tempting to go ahead and make investments and it looks good for today,” the retired founder of Duquense Capital Management said, “but when this thing ends, because we’ve had speculation, we’ve had money building up four to six years in terms of a risk pattern, I think it could end very badly.

There is nothing more deflationary than creating a phony asset bubble, having a bunch of investors plow into it and then having it pop.

I feel more like it was in ’04 when every bone in my body said this is a bad risk/reward, but I can’t figure out how it’s going to end. I just know it’s going to end badly, and a year and a half later we figure out it was housing and subprime. I feel the same way now.

When you have zero money for so long, the marginal benefits you get through consumption greatly diminish, but there’s one thing that doesn’t diminish, which is unintended consequences.

When this thing ends, because we’ve had speculation, we’ve had money building up for four to six years, in terms of a risk pattern, I think it could end very badly.

Then again, feel free to listen to your Charles Schwab financial adviser and go long on margin.