Tag: forecast

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Warning: The Bear Makret Is Coming. Top In Early 2014

Bloomberg Writes: Stock Funds Lure Most Cash in 13 Years as Market Rallies

 money flowing investwithalex

Investors are pouring more money into stock mutual funds in the U.S. than they have in 13 years, attracted by a market near record highs and stung by bond losses that would deepen if interest rates keep rising.

“The timing of retail investors tends to be terrible,” said Jonathan Pond, an independent financial adviser in Newton, Massachusetts, who oversees $200 million. The deposits may be a contrarian indicator of a market near a top, he said.

Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist at Boston-based money manager Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co., told clients in a letter this week, “We will have the third in the series of serious market busts since 1999.” BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Laurence D. Fink said this month that stocks may decline as much as 15 percent because of political risks in China, Japan, France and the U.S.

Read The Rest Of The Article

As the melt up in the stock market continues, retail investors are the last ones to join the party. As always. As the article indicates, last time we had similar inflows was at the end of 1999 and early 2000 or right before the tech collapse and the subsequent recession.

I would go even further and suggest that today’s investor psychological backdrop is identical to that of 2000 top.  For example, even though multiple high performing investors did spot the technology bubble and have tried to warn the others, for the most part they were completely ignored until it was too late.  It was the “NEW” economy the old guard did not understand.  Today’s environment is identical, except one fact. Instead of it being the NEW economy, today most markets participants believe that the FED can control the economy and its interest rates. That is of course a mirage that they will pay for dearly. Overall, the bullish sentiment is off the charts. As always, retail investors will lose the most as soon as the bear market kicks in.

As I have stated so many times before, the bear market will start in March of 2014 and will take 3 years to complete. While it will not be a violent move to the downside, it will shave off about 30-50% from today’s market prices over the next few years.  You have been warned.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

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The Secret Behind Upcoming Stock Market Top

Bloomberg Writes: Stock Funds Lure Most Cash in 13 Years as Market Rallies

 money flowing investwithalex

Investors are pouring more money into stock mutual funds in the U.S. than they have in 13 years, attracted by a market near record highs and stung by bond losses that would deepen if interest rates keep rising.

“The timing of retail investors tends to be terrible,” said Jonathan Pond, an independent financial adviser in Newton, Massachusetts, who oversees $200 million. The deposits may be a contrarian indicator of a market near a top, he said.

Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist at Boston-based money manager Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co., told clients in a letter this week, “We will have the third in the series of serious market busts since 1999.” BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Laurence D. Fink said this month that stocks may decline as much as 15 percent because of political risks in China, Japan, France and the U.S.

Read The Rest Of The Article

As the melt up in the stock market continues, retail investors are the last ones to join the party. As always. As the article indicates, last time we had similar inflows was at the end of 1999 and early 2000 or right before the tech collapse and the subsequent recession.

I would go even further and suggest that today’s investor psychological backdrop is identical to that of 2000 top.  For example, even though multiple high performing investors did spot the technology bubble and have tried to warn the others, for the most part they were completely ignored until it was too late.  It was the “NEW” economy the old guard did not understand.  Today’s environment is identical, except one fact. Instead of it being the NEW economy, today most markets participants believe that the FED can control the economy and its interest rates. That is of course a mirage that they will pay for dearly. Overall, the bullish sentiment is off the charts. As always, retail investors will lose the most as soon as the bear market kicks in.

As I have stated so many times before, the bear market will start in March of 2014 and will take 3 years to complete. While it will not be a violent move to the downside, it will shave off about 30-50% from today’s market prices over the next few years.  You have been warned.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

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Warning: The Biggest Market Story No One Is Talking About

 

 

10 year November

Everyone is running their mouth. Bernanke is talking about indefinite QE, Yellen is saying that she will accommodate the markets any way that she can and Larry Summers is talking about 0% interest rates to avoid economic depression. All of that is garbage. 

The only thing that truly matter is the 10-Year Note chart above. As you can see the chart is extremely bullish. I have said numerous times here, it is fatal to believe that the FED’s can control interest rates. They can influence them over the short term, but interest rates will behave as they should over the long run. The chart above clearly indicates that interest rates have reversed their course and are climbing up. Given massive amount of leverage  and speculation in the system, even a misery 0.5% increase from this point on will have huge negative consequences. Should interest rates zoom up within a short period of time (which they might) there will be hell to pay.

This is the most important trend to watch going forward. So far the trend is incredibly bullish (for interest rates). This plays very well into my forecast of the bear market starting in 2014. This confirms it. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

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Stock Market Update, November 15th, 2013

daily chart Nov 15, 2013

 

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

Once again, no change since the last market update to alter my opinion. The market continues to push through it’s daily highs as it marches forward.  My previous updates remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

With that said, I would like to point out two things that you must keep in mind.

1.  As of right now, everyone is asleep at the wheel.  Meaning the market is continuing its slow ascend and the volatility is not there.  Everyone expects this to continue indefinitely.

2.  Bullish sentiment is close to record highs. I don’t see any bears. None at all. Even the people who used to be bearish have turned bullish. Bottom line, everyone expects the bull to continue.

When you combine both factors together, you end up in a dangerous situation. Kind of like speeding while driving drunk. In more simple terms, the market is perfectly setup for a volatile down move here. As we continue to hold our long position we wait for the reversal and the confirmation that the bear market into the 2016-2017 bottom has started. 

Did you enjoy this post? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Stock Market Update, November 15th, 2013