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Russian Markets Plunge, Central Bank Moves To Increase Rates

Russian stock market crashed today, declining 13.5% today in a near panic selling. Russian central bank moved swiftly, increasing interest rates by 150bps, the highest hike since 1998 default. The Rubble didn’t fare any better with USDRUB rising to an all time high of 37.

Will this swift market action, gut punch to the Russian economy, threat of sanctions and capital flight be enough to stop Russia or Putin in his tracks in terms of Ukraine?

That wouldn’t be our bet. As a matter of fact, if anything it will make Russia even more determined to go ahead and resolve Ukraine’s situation as they see fit. At the end of the day, Putin doesn’t place as much of an importance on capital markets and the state of the overall economy as the US does.  The more important question is, how will this action/reaction impact the US Market.

It’s very clear. Please check our timing section to find out exact what the market is going to do over the next few weeks.  

RUSSIAN MARKET

Russian markets plunged Monday morning as investors reacted to the prospect of Western-led economic sanctions aimed at punishing president Vladimir Putin for Russian actions in Crimea.

The selloff prompted the Russian central bank to take aggressive action to try to stabilize the markets. As the ruble sank to new lows against the euro and the dollar, the bank raised interest rate by 150 basis points (1.5 percentage points), lifting it to 7 per cent.

Russia’s benchmark stock market index, the Micex, got battered by 13.5 per cent at one point by near panic selling. All of the big names on the index including Gazprom, the state-controlled natural gas company whose pipelines to Western Europe run through Ukraine, fell sharply. Gazprom was down in line with the market.

Yields on Russia’s 10-year sovereign bonds rose as high as 9 per cent, up sharply from Friday’s close of 8.1 per cent, as debt investors apparently took the view that that the Ukraine crisis could escalate even if there have been no clashes between Ukrainian and Russian troops in Crimea, the largely Russian speaking region in Ukraine’s far south which is the home to Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet.

The Russian selloff came as the leaders of the Group of Seven industrialized countries, Canada among them, released a joint statement “condemning the Russian Federations clear violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity in Ukraine.” On Sunday, the G7 countries halted preparatory meetings for the G8 summit scheduled for Sochi, Russia, the host city of the Winter Olympics, in June. Russia is the eighth member of that group.

The strongly worded G7 statement indicates that the Western countries may be on the verge of launching sanctions of some sort against Russia, though no formal plan had been announced by Monday morning. On Sunday, U.S. secretary state John Kerry, who is to travel to the Ukrainian capital Kiev on Tuesday, said the Western countries are “prepared to put sanctions in place, they’re prepared to isolate Russia economically.”

In a note, Kit Juckes of the French bank Société Générale said: “This weekend’s events will be followed by a lot of uncertainty and further risk aversion as a diplomatic solution is sought….wider scale capital flight from Russia must be a risk. Russia is unlikely to back down on its support of the regional government in Crimea. The important of Ukraine as a line in Europe’s energy supply line and as the point were Russia and the European Union meet, makes the idea that either side just backs down hard to imagine, but equally, provides plenty of incentives to work towards a diplomatic solution.”

The Russian sell-off triggered a smaller selloff of equities in Europe, where the FTSE-100 and the Eurofirst 300 indexes fell by more than 1 per cent. Investors sought safety in commodities rose. Brent crude was up 1.6 per cent and gold rallied strongly, gaining 1.8 per cent, taking its value to almost $1.346 (U.S.).

Economists doubted that the Ukraine crisis would trigger a full-blown emerging market crisis because of the small size of the Ukrainian economy. It is worth 0.2 per cent of global gross domestic product. Still, some countries, notably Russia and Poland, have significant trade ties to Ukraine and Russia has the power to make or break Ukraine’s energy supplies. Ukraine depends on Russia for half of its natural gas supplies and about 20 per cent of the gas consumed in the European Union is delivered through pipelines that cross the Ukraine.

The fear among Ukrainians is that Russia will use gas supplies as a geopolitical threat. Russia has reduced out outright eliminated supplies to Russia several times in the last decade over gas pricing and contract disputes.

The Financial Times reported that, over the weekend, Russia signalled that it might use gas exports to apply pressure on the interim government on Kiev. Gazprom, the world’s biggest gas supplier, hinted that it may raise gas prices to Ukraine. In December, Mr. Putin gave Ukraine a big discount on gas supplies as part of a $20-billion bailout package (of which only a few billion dollars has been delivered). The price, however, must be renegotiated every three months.

Russian Markets Plunge, Central Bank Moves To Increase Rates  Google

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What You Ought To Know About This Secular Bear Market. Plus, Weekly Market Update.

daily chart Feb 28, 2014

Weekly Update & Summary: February 28th, 2014

The market continued its bull move with the Dow Jones being up +218 points (1.36%) and the Nasdaq being up +44 points (1.05%) for the week. Structurally, the market did very well, leaving only one gap behind….at 16,100. There are still a number of gaps going all the way down to 15,500 on the Dow, but all of them will be closed during the upcoming bear market leg.   

FUNDAMENTAL & MARKET ANALYSIS: 

During the week Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, Liz Ann Sonders, claimed that the bull run stocks have enjoyed for the last five years is not over yet. According to her, “I think what started five years ago was the beginning of a secular bull market, not just a cyclical bull within an ongoing bear.”   

This is an important claim that we must discuss. This will help me explain, once again, where we are in the cycle. If you are not familiar with the terminology….

Secular Bull Market ……. is a long term bull market. For example, what we saw between 1982-2000.

Cyclical Bull Market Within Ongoing Bear…..is a bear market rally. For instance, the move between 2002/03 bottom to 2007 top.

So, what she is saying is that the bear market that started in January of 2000 is now over and that the new long term bull market started at 2009 bottom. There is just one problem with her statement.

Liz Ann Sonders didn’t do her market homework. Since the stock market officially “opened” in May of 1790 there hasn’t been a single bear market that lasted 9 years. Not a single one if you understand the cyclical composition and market structure. Why would it be different this time? It is not.

In fact,  the market oscillates in bull and bear market cycles that on average last 17-18 years. There is a reason for that, but let me illustrate instead of telling you. Let’s take a closer look

Long Term Dow Structure3

  • 1897-1914 Bear Market. (17 Years).
  • 1914-1932 Bull Market. (18 Years). * Please note, the last 3 years of this cycle 1929-32 we had a cycle inversion. I will talk about it in my future writings, for now, its outside the scope of our discussion.
  • 1932-1949 Bear Market (17 Years).
  • 1949-1966 Bull Market ( 17 Years).
  • 1966-1982 Bear Market (17 Years).
  • 1982-2000 Bull Market (18 Years).
  • 2000-2009 Bear Market ? ….I don’t think so….

As you can clearly see, bull and bear markets alternate in 17-18 year cycles. Any notion that, somehow, this bear market was only 9 years long and we are now in a cyclical bull market is ludicrous.  

This is further confirmed by my mathematical work. What we have seen between March 2009 bottom and today was a simple bear market rally, even if it did set a new high. It was a 5 year cycle (exactly the same as in 2002-2007) and it is now done. Cyclical bear markets tend to finish off with a 2-3 year down moves and that is, once again, being confirmed by my calculations.

I have stated on numerous occasions that the stock market has topped out on December 31st, 2013, ushering in the final leg of the bear market. When this bear market completes the Dow Jones will be well below it’s 2000 top of 11,800……essentially tracing out a flat move over an 17 year period of time. Exactly what a bear market should look like.

I hope this brings further awareness and understanding of where we are in this economic and market cycle. If you want more precise timing capability, please take a look at our Timing Analysis section below.

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS:  

One word. Ukraine.

As I have mentioned in one of my posts during the week, there is absolutely no way in hell that Russia will let Ukraine go.  What we are seeing today is indicative of that stand.  If you are not following the story, here is what had transpired.  The EU Bureaucrats and the US Government have decided that it would be a good idea to destabilize Ukraine after Ukrainian government decided to go forward with Russia instead of joining the EU or NATO.  Thus far, the western governments were successful it toppling Ukrainian President and “claiming victory”.

However, here is what even a retarded CIA/NSA analyst should understand. Russia will never let Ukraine go.  It will go to war over that territory if need be and that is exactly what we are seeing today. Obama coming out and “WARNING” Russia does nothing but infuriate Russia even more. Again, the US Government has no business in Ukraine.  Ukraine is a split nation and when Obama talks about the “Ukrainian People who want freedom and closer ties to the EU” he talks about 25% of Ukrainian population at best.  The bottom line is this, Russia will take it and no one will stop it.

Is this important? Will this impact our financial markets?  While it will not have any impact on the US financial markets  (outside the spectrum of our forecasts) it is an incredibly important geopolitical event. It is quite possible that when we look back, this event will be indentified as the beginning of the Cold War II between Russia and the West. With one big difference. Russia will have an incredibly strong partner on its side that it didn’t have last time…..China.  This is a fascinating development that will impact us all over the next few decades.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: 

While the overall technical picture is clearing up.

Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January-February could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. 

Intermediary-Term: Since February 5th, intermediary term picture shifted from negative to positive. Giving us a technical indication that both the intermediary term and the long term trends are up. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Short-Term: Short-term trend has turned bullish as well.

While all 3 trends are bullish, this might be misleading. Please read our Mathematical and Timing Analysis to see what will transpire over the next few weeks.    

MATHEMATICAL & TIMING ANALYSIS:  

(*** Please Note: About 75% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public.  As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more.Subscription is through lottery only. Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial). 

I continue to believe that March will be a very volatile month. We have a number of interference patterns in play, indicating a number of strong and powerful bull/bear moves. With that said, I believe Friday’s market action has cleared a lot of question marks. Primarily, XXXX. 

In addition, the market closed two important gaps all the way up to 16,400 that were left there in January. I have talked about these gaps on numerous occasions, suggesting that the market must close said gaps before any meaningful bear market can start. That was done today, clearing the way for the market to XXXX

While there are a number of important turning points in March (indicating interference), there is one particular price point that works very well. As such, I propose the following turning points.

Date: XXXX
Price Target: XXXX

Explanation: XXXX

Hence, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action.

If You Are A Trader: XXXX

If No Position: XXXX

If Long: XXXX

If Short:  XXXX

CONCLUSION: 

We have a couple of existing and challenging weeks coming up. March of 2014 presents us with numerous high probability turning points. Indicating volatility, multiple interference patterns and an incredibly important long-term XXXX. Those anticipating the moves and those who can time them properly will be rewarded appropriately. Once the moves described above play out in full, the market will be set free to continue its next cyclical bear market leg. 

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

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What You Ought To Know About This Secular Bear Market. Plus, Weekly Market Update.  Google

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Idiots At The Gate. Plus, Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast

daily chart Feb 22, 2014

Weekly Update & Summary: February 22nd, 2014

The market remained relatively flat for the week with the Dow Jones losing -51 points (-0.32%) while the Nasdaq gained 19 points (+0.46) Structurally, the market did very well, closing all the gaps during the span of the week.  There is still a gap left around 15,500 on the Dow, but it will be closed during the subsequent bear market leg.   

Fundamental & Market Analysis:

Over the last couple of years I have argued, sometimes passionately, that the Federal Reserve doesn’t really know what is going on within our own economy and our financial markets. Not only that, but I have also argued that they are a bunch of idiots and fools who believe that they can somehow control our financial markets.

If recently released transcripts, generated during the 2008 meltdown don’t prove my point of view without a shadow of a doubt, I don’t know what will. Here are just a few quick points from the said transcripts.

  • They didn’t even realize recession was happening until the 4th quarter of 2008. By that point the stock market has completed 80% of its down move.  In fact, for most of 2008 they thought the recession “could be avoided”.

—-Hello???? Was anyone home??? Recession started in Q4 of 2007.

  • Bernanke talked about pent-up demand for housing as late as January 2008.
  • Bernanke was worried about inflation as late as January 2008.
  • Throughout Q1 of 2008 they have held a generally rosy view of the world and the US Economy

Here are the links to two great articles about the transcripts if you would like to learn more. Click Here and/or Click Here

bernanke meme

The lesson here is twofold.

First, anyone who believes that the FED can either control, anticipate or predict financial markets and/or the economy is even a bigger fool.  Neither Bernanke nor Yellen can predict the economy even if it hit them in the face with a brick. All they can do is look at past data and say “Oh, look, according to this data recession started in Q4 of 2007”. What a waste of time and money.  

Second, they will always be behind the ball. They will always be a reactionary force as opposed to market makers. Take today’s environment for example. They are cutting QE and talking about raising the interest rates at exactly the wrong time. The damage from their crazy liquidity party has already been done. The worst thing they can do now is cut it. The faster they do it the faster the markets will collapse.  

Why is any of this important?

Well, if you rely on FED to make money in the stock market and/or run your own business it becomes incredibly important. As such, no one should rely on any action by the FED as an investment indicator. It is as simple as that.

This brings us to financial markets and my premise that financial markets behave exactly as they should. Many people would argue that it was the FED’s actions that put the bottom in at the March of 2009 juncture, ensuring a subsequent and massive stock market rally.

WRONG.

Don’t confuse cause and effect. It was the market that made the FED’s look good and not the other way around. The market was structured to bottom on March 6th, 2009 at 6,469 and then have a subsequent 5-year market rally. It was the mid-cycle bottom (half point of bear market) and I predicted it as early as January of that year. I was 1 day and 100 points away. Close enough. I know I have shown this chart before, but let’s take another look.

Long Term Dow Structure35

If you perform the type of 3-dimensional analysis that I do you would know that the move between 2003 bottom and 2009 bottom would be IDENTICAL to the move between 1994 bottom and 2002 bottom. And so it was, exhibiting a variance of 22 3-dimensional units (equivalent to a few trading days or 100 points).

Any analyst working with this information would know that as soon as 2007 top was confirmed that the next move down would be exactly 8,130 3-dimensional units. Once the market developed further, the same analyst would be able to pin point the exact bottom with amazing precision and that is what I want you to understand without a shadow of a doubt. The stock market is not volatile or random, it is exact and precise.

Same thing applies to today’s market. In last week’s forecast I identified a turning point in February. While I am not yet at liberty to discuss this turning point (available to premium subscribers only), it clearly explains the market action we have witnessed over the last couple of days. By concentrating on mathematics and 3-dimensional analysis one can pick out turning points with a precision of a surgeon.    

Macroeconomic Analysis: 

In a nutshell, Ukraine, Venezuela, Argentina and China. Argentina is on a verge of another default and I wrote about it before. Ukraine and Venezuela are both in the midst of violent revolutionary uprisings. While Venezuela will not have that much impact either way, Ukraine’s situation will have vast repercussions across the globe. Maybe not in economic terms, but certainly in geopolitical risk. All because of Russia. Having been born in Russia, let me tell you something. Russia is pissed off….big time.

They are pissed at a blatant American and EU interference into Russia’s business. Yes, Ukraine is Russia’s business. Always was and always will be. Just to give you a reference point, there would be a similar type of a reaction from the US if Russia was interfering in governance of Kentucky. Now, let’s take the “Ukranian people deserve freedom too and the US will go to any length necessary to see it happen” bullshit off the table. If you believe this crap, I have a $20 million bridge to sell you (give me a call).

What you see happening is the beginning of the next Cold War where both the US and Russia keep tearing into each other. With the only winners being the politicians and the military industrial complex. This is a negative development that should be watched carefully going forward. 

China’s shadow lending system continues to expand at breakneck speeds. No-one really knows for sure how big a problem China’s economy will eventually face due to the massive credit and money supply growth over the last few years. Since 2008 financial meltdown in particular. While no one has the real numbers, some of the estimates coming out of China are truly mindboggling. For instance, that China’s banking sector is now roughly the size of the US banking sector. With one primary difference. It took the US over 100 years of trial and error to get to that size, it took China roughly 5 years. Thus far China has been able to keep trouble at bay, but this is unlikely to continue much longer. Some sort of a blow up in China is imminent.

Technical Analysis: 

While the overall technical picture continues to remain murky, the resolution should be just around the corner.

Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January-February could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. 

Intermediary-Term: Since February 5th, intermediary term picture shifted from negative to positive. Giving us a technical indication that both the intermediary term and the long term trends are up. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Short-Term: Is somewhat bearish. Please view our mathematical and timing analysis below for further understanding and explanation.

Mathematical & Timing Analysis: 

(*** Please Note: About 75% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public.  As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more.Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial). 

Last week we concentrated on February XXXX, as a turning point. Here is the forecast that was provided.

Date: XXXX
Price: XXXX

Thus far, the vertical rally that started on February 5th ran into a brick wall. To be exact, the Dow topped out 1 hour into trading on February 19th at 16,225 and then proceeded to collapse 200 points.  Recovering thereafter and subsequently oscillating without going anywhere.  

So, what is going on? Have we hit our turning point?

XXXX

Hence, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action.

If You Are A Trader: XXXX  

If No Position: XXXX 

If Long: XXXX

If Short:  XXXX. 

CONCLUSION: 

We have an existing couple of weeks coming up. The week of February 24-28th should finally confirm February XXXX as a turning point. In March, we should see a number of big and very important turning points. I will start talking about them once the current stock market action resolves itself. Those anticipating the moves and those who can time them properly will be rewarded appropriately. Once the moves described above play out in full, the market will be set free to continue its next cyclical bear market leg. 

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Idiots At The Gate. Plus, Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast Google

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Who Is Killing The JP Morgan Bankers? Plus, Market Update

As they say, real life is sometimes stranger than fiction. If you haven’t been paying attention, a number of high profile bankers have committed “suicide” over the last 30 days. Mostly, by “jumping” from the rooftops of their office towers. Seven of them to be exact (please see the list below) With three of them being from the JP Morgan Chase.

So, is there something in the air that is forcing these otherwise wealthy bankers at the prime of their career to commit suicide? Did we have a 1929 style market crash or is that a new termination policy at the major banks? Am I missing something here? 

Any notion that all of the said bankers have committed suicide is laughable. Take Richard Talley for instance, who ended up shooting himself 8 times with a nail gun in both torso and head. How is that even possible?  Plus, with multiple connections between the dead bankers, particularly those working at JP Morgan Chase, something doesn’t add up.  

Recently Madoff acknowledge that top brass at JP Morgan knew about his Ponzi scheme for over 10 years. Letting it go on and collecting massive fees in the process. This was part of a $2 Billion settlement JPM reached a few months back. So, is JPM terminating its own employees or is this a hit ordered by someone? 

Here are my two cents. I don’t think JPM has anything to do with this, but I do believe the people in question have found themselves on the wrong side of a trade or they have screwed someone. Big time. Perhaps an organized crime group, maybe a government. Basically, they took someone’s money (whether legitimately or not) and that someone put a hit on them. Simple as that. Just another point of reference that Wall Street is turning into a war zone. 

The lesson for Wall Street bankers is as follows. Next time you screw most of the world out of billions of dollars (mortgage backed meltdown), there might be people, organizations or governments out there crazy enough to put a hit out on you.

One thing is for sure, dead bankers don’t talk. 

jpmorgan_man on ledge

List of dead bankers

-Li Jie – 33 year old investment banker at JP Morgan jumped to his death from the roof of the bank’s headquarters in Central Hong Kong yesterday. Witnesses said the man went to the roof of the 30-storey Chater House in the heart of Hong Kong’s central business district and, despite attempts to talk him down, jumped to his death.

 
 

– On January 26, former Deutsche Bank executive Broeksmit was found dead at his South Kensington home after police responded to reports of a man found hanging at a house. According to reports, Broeksmit had “close ties to co-chief executive Anshu Jain.”

 

– Gabriel Magee, a 39-year-old senior manager at JP Morgan’s European headquarters, jumped 500ft from the top of the bank’s headquarters in central London on January 27, landing on an adjacent 9 story roof.

 

– Mike Dueker, the chief economist at Russell Investments, fell down a 50 foot embankment in what police are describing as a suicide. He was reported missing on January 29 by friends, who said he had been “having problems at work.”

 

– Richard Talley, 57, founder of American Title Services in Centennial, Colorado, was also found dead earlier this month after apparently shooting himself with a nail gun.

 

– 37-year-old JP Morgan executive director Ryan Henry Crane died last week.

 

– Tim Dickenson, a U.K.-based communications director at Swiss Re AG, also died last month, although the circumstances surrounding his death are still unknown.

 

MARKET UPDATE: 

2/20/2014 – A strong rally from yesterday’s bottom with the Dow Jones appreciating +93 points (0.58%) and the Nasdaq climbing 29 points  (0.70%). 

Today is the perfect example of why we should wait for a market confirmation before committing to either going long or going short. Has anything changed since our proposed turning date of XXXX….. 

(*** Please Note: About 75% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public.  As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more.Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial). 

Hence, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action.

If No Position: XXXX

If Long: XXXX

If Short: XXXX

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Who Is Killing The JP Morgan Bankers? Plus, Market Update Google

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Is Obama Causing Ukraine’s Meltdown? Plus, Market Update

Ukraine has two things in abundance. Beautiful women and people stupid enough to believe that the EU and/or Obama will come to their rescue. 

Today President Obama warned Ukraine’s government against crossing the “Red Line” against its citizens and using force. Truly, I am in disbelief.

First, Obama administration works behind the scenes (aka covert CIA Operations or some crap like that) to instigate Ukrainian instability and uprising, then Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland says “Fuck The EU” for the whole world to hear.

So, what business does the USA has interfering in Ukraine’s and Russia’s business? 

Well, it shouldn’t, but for some reason it does. It is either because the US completely lost all of it’s marbles or because Obama would like to get back at Putin. Apparently, the negative propaganda spin through western media is not doing it’s job. Whatever it is, I think Obama is about to look stupid again. Just as he ended up with Syria and Iran. 

The only way Ukraine will join the EU or the West is over Putin’s dead body. Make no mistake, he controls it and he will not let it go. No matter how many protesters they will have to kill. For Russia, losing Ukraine to EU would be equivalent to the USA losing Kentucky to Cuba.  Not happening.

I just hope that the situation resolves itself without any further bloodshed.  The next few days will be very critical.  

Obama-Red-Line

MARKET UPDATE: 

2/19/2014 – An across the board down day with the Dow Jones down -89 points (-0.55%) and the Nasdaq down -35 points (-0.82%). 

The Dow started the day by zooming up into our previously suggested upper range of 16,222 before reversing and subsequently dropping 182 points.  In the process confirming a bearish short-term trend on the hourly chart. 

Should we celebrate this precise hit as per our earlier forecast? 

Not quite yet. I tend to be a little bit more on the safe side and would like to wait for a follow through to the XXXX tomorrow or over the next few days before confirming an exact price/time hit. I did reverse my QQQ position today at $89.71, going XXXX at the same price, with a stop loss @ XXXX. Please check our updated portfolio section within member section. 

Other than that, we are right where we need to be in both price/time and in terms of portfolio allocation. Portfolio allocation suggested to all parties on 2/18/2014 is still in effect.

END OF UPDATE: —-Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

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Is Obama Causing Ukraine’s Meltdown? Plus, Market Update Google

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The Bear Market Of 2014-2017 Is Starting. Why, How & When (Revisited)

As markets opened up on January 2nd, 2014, everyone was excited. After all, what was not to like. In 2013 alone, the Dow Jones was in the “new” bull market and according to most people, the rally would continue for the foreseeable future. And why not. After all, the economy was doing better, the unemployment rate was going down to 6.6%, corporate earnings were growing at a good clip. The stage was set for the bull market to continue or so everyone thought.

How little did they know.  What they didn’t (and still don’t) know is that the bull market topped out just two days earlier, on December 31st, 2013 at 16,588 on the DOW (Mathematical top, the actual top will come later in the year).  Ushering in the final stage of the Cyclical Bear Market that will take us into the final 2017 bottom.

How do I know?  I specialize in highly advanced mathematical timing work that can identify turning points in both price and time.  It is rarely wrong, particularly over the long-term time frames. Please get the first two chapters of my book CLICK HERE to learn more about the timing work that I do.

This report is to explore  the Why, How & When of the subject matter at hand. Particularly, why we are about to go thought a bear market leg, where we are in the long-term cyclical structure of the bear market, how long the final bear market will last, where will the market be at the end of the cycle, when it will end and what to expect thereafter. We will look at the matter from the fundamental, technical and timed value approach to investing.

The WHY?

This is probably the easiest question to answer. However, before I can do so, we must go back a few years to understand what got us into this predicament in the first place.

The tech bubble really took off in November of 1994, culminating with a spectacular blow off and a subsequent collapse in January of 2000. With the Nasdaq collapsing close to 80% and the DOW declining to the tune of 40%, the FED’s were concerned.  The country was already in the recession, facing much worse, a deflationary depression.

The FED’s opened up the flood gates by cutting interest rates into the negative category and flooding the market with cheap money.  The money flowed into two primary areas of the economy. The stock market and the housing market. Driving up the values of both in a spectacular fashion.

By 2007 we were  in a massive speculative bubble.  In the stock market, the credit markets and in the real estate market.  Not only were we in a bubble of historic proportions, but it was not fundamentally sound. Meaning, it was brought on by massive fraud happening in the real estate sector.  Here is a good chart showing overvaluation.

market to gdp

Actually, what surprised a lot of people, including myself, is how long that bubble went on. Even though traditional media would like you to believe that no one saw the bubble or the subsequent collapse coming, that is nonsense. At least a dozen people I know, saw it coming. Some did so as early as 2004-05. Maybe I am hanging out with too many bears.

The 2007-2009 collapse was unavoidable. There was too much fraud, juiced up earnings and bad credit in the system. Just like there is today. When it happened, instead of fearing a deflationary depression, the FED’s where scared shitless, fearing an outright collapse of our financial system and the subsequent “Greater Depression”. Rightfully so.

They proceeded to open the flood gates one again, drowning the market in free cash/credit, providing trillions in bailout money and backstopping the collapse. A little bit later, the FED’s introduced QE to push interest rates into the negative territory while providing “growth credit” to our nearly dead economy. The money flowed mostly to….yep, you have guessed it…….financial institutions (who initiated the collapse), hedge funds and high net worth individuals. Giving them a risk free way to speculate, well, in pretty much everything.

However, such actions do come at a cost and that is where we find ourselves today. That is what you have to understand.  The environment we find ourselves in today is not a “unique economic environment” but a continuation of the disastrous policies initiated by the FED against the US Economy since the 1990s. Well, the 1987 crash and Greenspan to be exact.

Today, the US Economy is nothing more than a  giant Ponzi scheme, shuffling money around, borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. It is identical to maxing out your credit cards, then getting more cards and maxing them out again just to pay the interest on the first batch. With one primary difference.  Thus far, the US has been saved through having a reserve currency, ability to print unlimited amounts of money and most importantly, through having the confidence of foreign investors/creditors.  When the trust goes away, and it will, there will be hell to pay.

As 2014 starts we find ourselves in the biggest credit bubble in the history of mankind. It was this credit that drove the stock market recovery from the March of 2009 bottom. It was this credit that drove the housing market recovery and the recovery in corporate earnings.  It was this credit that created an illusion of economic growth and recovery.  How much credit?  Over $3 Trillion in FED printing alone over the last few years.

Yet, if you take the credit away, the underlying economy is nothing more than a giant house of cards on a very shaky foundation.  When you take the unlimited credit away or the velocity of such credit slows down, both happening now, the whole house of cards will come down. And that is precisely where we find ourselves today.

What I want you to understand without a shadow of a doubt is  this. Today’s economic environment has very little to do with reality. Everything you see, everything that you see doing well, has been driven up by credit and speculation.  Eventually, the house of credit collapses and we find ourselves in a midst of an economic disaster. Once again. Unfortunately, just like every Ponzi scheme eventually collapses, so will this  one. There is no way to avoid this now.

The HOW?

It depends who you listen to when it comes to apocalyptic views on our Economy and our financial markets.  On one extreme, we have hyperinflationist. They believe that actions by the FED will cause a hyperinflationary environment to the likes of Zimbabwe. In their view, the dollar will collapse, the gold will surge and Americans will use barrels full of $100 bills just to buy a loafs of bread in the neighborhood supermarket.

On the other side, you have deflationists. They believe the stock market, the credit market, the real estate market, …..everything will collapse, ushering in the next “Great Depression”.  According to them it would be best to accumulate cash, canned food, guns and ammo.

Who is right? No one and everyone. Let me explain. 

The massive printing and credit we have experienced over the last couple of years has, indeed, caused massive inflation. But not where you would expect. Yes, there are certain items throughout the economy like food and basic utilities that have appreciated substantially. However, their rise is not nearly enough to account for massive credit infusion and negative interest rates. So, where did all the money go?

The inflation everyone seeks and talks about went straight into various asset classes. Yes, you have guessed it right. Stocks, real estate, junk bonds, etc… Driving most to extreme overvaluation levels. Not only in the US, but worldwide.

Some analyst would argue that today’s stock market is not overpriced based on simplistic analysis such as P/E Ratios. However, such analysis misses the elephant in the room. A large portion of today’s corporate earnings have been driven by the same credit infusion. Without said credit, the real P/E ratio would be astronomical. How high?  Based on my conservative calculations, at least 2X and as high as 5X from today’s levels. Meaning the real S&P P/E ratio is somewhere between 36 and 100. Making current stock market not only expensive, but “are you fucking kidding me” expensive.

This is precisely what happened during the 2007-09 meltdown. While the pre bust P/E stood around 20 at the 2007 top, it quickly zoomed up close to 125 as soon as corporate earnings built on credit vanished into thin air. An identical situation to today’s markets.

s&p ratio

So, how will this house of cards collapse? Will we have inflation or deflation moving forward?

I think everyone, including bulls, bears, inflationist’s and deflationists will be disappointed at the end of the day. At least based on my mathematical work.  Yes, my work shows a bear market between 2014-17, but not as extreme and not as violent as most people would anticipate. It shows a bear market most closely resembling the bear market between January 2000 and March of 2003 on the Dow Jones (not Nasdaq).

Meaning, a volatile non directional move with a general downtrend.  An extremely difficult environment for both bulls and bears to make money in. Those wishing to make money in such an environment really only have two option. Go short at the inception of the bear market move and stay short for the duration of the move. Surely, to be a unnerving experience. The other option would be to try and time the turning points while trading in and out of bull/bear legs. A skill requiring a lot of experience and know how.

Of course, there is another option that might be more suitable for those wanting to avoid the entire mess. That option is to get out now, stay in cash and pick up substantially undervalued assets at the bottom of the bear market in 2017.

The When?

NOW. Based on my mathematical timing work the bull market from March of 2009 bottom has topped out on December 31st, 2013 (Mathematical top, the actual top will come later in the year). Ushering in the last leg of the cyclical bear market leg that started in January of 2000 and taking us into the final bottom of 2017.

What kind of timing work do I use? The chart below is just one data point.

Long Term Dow Structure35

To fully understand the chart above please get and read my book Timed Value. To quickly summarize, I use 3-dimensional analysis that unifies price and time into one value in order to analyze and time the market with incredible accuracy.  For instance, the chart above show that between 1994 and 2009, a 16 year period of time, the  market exhibited only 22 points of variance. Giving us precise timing and amazing accuracy.

An analyst familiar with this type of an analysis would be able to pick out every single major turning point over the last 20 years. To the day. For example, when 2007 top was reached and confirmed an analyst working with this type of an analysis would know that the upcoming bear move would be exactly 8,137 (3-dimensional units), the angle of the move and it’s exact termination point. So, while everyone was freaking out during the collapse of 2008-09, an analyst performing this work would either be positioned to profit from the collapse or waiting on the sideline for the bottom in March of 2009.

Then, we have cycle work that I talk about in my book as well. While there are a number of important cycles operating in the stock market at any given time, the one we have to take into consideration today is the 5-year cycle. While the 5-year cycle works for both bull and bear markets, it is most easily noticed during the bull moves. For example,  1924-1929, 1932-1937, 1982-1987, 1994-2000, 2002-2007 and now 2009-2014. While these 5-year cycles are the easiest to identify, there are many more. In both bull and bear moves. Plus, such cycles are not arbitrary, meaning they do not terminate at 5 years +/- 6 months. In most cases they terminate at exactly 5 years, with very little, if any, variance.

Taking both, my mathematical and my cycle work into consideration, we can safely assume that December 31st, 2013 was indeed the top of the bull market run (Mathematical top, the actual top will come later in the year). Well, when I take a number of other things into consideration. Things that I do not discuss in this short report.

How Low Will We Go & Exactly When Will This Bear Market Start?

If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

CONCLUSION:

In this report we have looked at fundamental, mathematical and cycle data points.  With the fundamental case being clear cut and to the point, only a few questions remained.

When will the stock market top out and begin its bear market leg?  How violent will the decline be and how long it will take?  What will the impact on the overall economy be and how low will the market go?

It is my hope that the report above helped to answer all of the questions. The bear market of 2014-2017 will not be the one for the “record books”, but it will server its purpose. Completing the cyclical bear market that started in January of 2000 while ushering in the next bull run. Unfortunately, the next bull run is likely to be based on inflationary pressure as opposed to any sort of true fundamental recovery. More on that in one of my future reports.

If you would like to get more information and more exact forecasts (to the day), please visit us at www.investwithalex.com

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The Bear Market Of 2014-2017 Is Starting. Why, How & When Google

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CNBC To American People. STFU Already. The US Economy Is On Fire. Plus, Market Update.

 

Apparently the perpetually bullish machine….aka…CNBC is tired of people doubting this “Amazing American Economic Recovery” over the last few years (please see the article above).  That’s right. How dare are those unemployed, underemployed and out of labor pool fools (about 15% of workforce) doubt the American machine of prosperity. How dare are those drunk college kids with $1.08 Trillion debt burden question the validity of their education. How dare does anyone question this real estate recovery.  After all, there is a billion of Chinese millionaires out there buying every house that they can in the deserts of Nevada and California.

Of course, we know better than that. This so called “American Economic Recovery” is an illusion at best. An illusion driven by debt, credit and speculation.   An illusion were only a select few with direct access to free credit were able to benefit from the economic recovery over the last couple of years.  You know, the exact same folks who are trying to tell us that the economy is doing great. Unfortunately, the rest of us were not so lucky.  

Now, a lot of people are starting to concentrate on class warfare.  Yet, we must understand that it is not the class issue, but rather, an economic issue that will impact us all.  No economy can function, grow and excel to the best of its ability if 90-95% of the population is left behind. I am not sure why it is so hard for CNBC, our administration and the FED to understand that.  Now, with my bitching done….

MARKET UPDATE:

2/18/2014 – An interesting day with the Dow Jones remaining relatively flat by losing only -23 points (-0.14%) while the Nasdaq surged higher with a sizable gain of +29 points (0.68%).

One thing we have to keep in mind is that our timing work is based on the Dow. As of right today, our forecast/trading plan presented on Saturday remains in force and in play. I continue to believe that our forecasted turning point will appear as expected. As such, our previously discussed positioning, outlined on Saturday, should remain in place. 

Further, at least structurally the Dow is confirming our turning point. What I am seeing on Nasdaq somewhat confirms the thesis. I am seeing the most speculative issues appreciate in a vertical fashion, including large gaps and everything else. If this doesn’t feel like a blow off top, at least on the Nasdaq, I don’t know what does.  

In summary, my work continues to show that we are close to a short-term turning point scheduled on XXXX. With that in mind, we just have to wait for the market to do its work over the next few XXXX. 

CONCLUSION & POSITIONING:

 (*** Please Note: About 75% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public.  As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more. Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial).

As mentioned in my earlier forecasts, we are looking at February XXXX as a major turning point.To be exact, this particular turning point is located at…

Date: XXXX
Price: XXXX

Hence, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action.

If You Are A Trader: On February XXXX, we will be looking for a confirmation that the market has hit its turning point (as per above) and has reversed itself……on an hourly chart. Once such confirmation occurs, I would liquidate our……….

If No Position: XXXX

If Long: XXXX

If Short:  XXXX

END OF UPDATE: —-Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

—————————————————————————————————————–

CNBC Idiots

CNBC Writes: Stop whining! The US economy is in good shape

Based on current growth dynamics, this year promises an even better outlook for employment creation and America’s contribution to the world economy.

The most recent evidence from survey data indicates that the U.S. service sector (approximately 90 percent of the economy) continues to expand in a steady and sustained fashion. Despite recent distortions caused by bad weather, the same is true of the manufacturing industries, where the capacity utilization rate is approaching its long-term average of 80 percent.

The U.S. economy is underpinned by growing real incomes, increasing employment, record-low borrowing costs and an easing access to credit facilities as banks continue to open up their channels of consumer financing.

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CNBC To American People. STFU Already. The US Economy Is On Fire. Plus, Market Update. Google

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Warning: George Soros Is Shorting The Market. Should You?

No matter what you think of him, when George Soros does something in the financial markets, it typically pays to pay attention.

So, what is he up to? 

As ZeroHedge reports below he is increasing his PUT option position against the stock market and increasing his CALL options position for gold mining ETFs. Let’s explore both positions a little bit further. 

While his bearish position against the market represents a small portion of his overall portfolio, about 11%, it is up significantly since Q3…… establishing a clear upward moving trend. Certainly, a large chunk of it was put in as a hedge against his overwhelmingly bullish allocation. However, I think there is something bigger brewing under the surface. 

George Soros is not stupid. I hope we can all agree on that. He is not about to go and put up a massive short position when the market is in a clear technical uptrend. Yes, he is hedging, but he is also getting ready to go short when the time is right.  I would do exactly the same thing. Test the water at a potential point of inflection (today’s market), feel it out with a small position, go big once the market confirms the downtrend. That’s just proper money management. 

I am certain Mr. Soros understands today’s macro economic environment better than anyone else out there. What he sees troubles him. Massive global credit bubble throughout western economies, emerging markets and China. Substantial asset overvaluation and a general “psychological” setup that shorts can only dream of. In other words, the market is perfectly setup for a bear leg. The bear leg that the market will exhibit between 2014-2017, as per our forecast. 

On the gold side, I am starting to like both Gold and Gold Miners here. From both the technical as well as the fundamental point of view. From the technical side, both are exhibiting signs of stabilization and a reversal. This bodes well with my fundamental analysis of the overall market. As the bear market decimates the US Economy (once again) over the next 3 years (2014-17), the FED’s are bound to keep the stimulus coming. At any cost. Trying to get inflation and dollar devaluation going. Under such circumstances Gold typically does very well. Not only as a monetary instrument of “stability”, but also as hedge against economic trouble.

So, should you short the market and buy gold?  Yes and Yes. The question is…..when? Please log in into your Premium Account to find out the WHEN.  

george-soros-investwithalex

A curious finding emerged in the latest 13F by Soros Fund Management, the family office investment vehicle managing the personal wealth of George Soros.

Actually, two curious findings: the first was that the disclosed Assets Under Management as of December 31, 2013 rose to a record $11.8 billion (this excludes netting and margin, and whatever one-time positions Soros may have gotten an SEC exemption to not disclose: for a recent instance of this, see Greenlight Capital’s Micron fiasco, and the subsequent lawsuit of Seeking Alpha which led to the breach of David Einhorn’s holdings confidentiality).

The second one is that the “Soros put”, a legacy hedge position that the 83-year old has been rolling over every quarter since 2010, just rose to a record $1.3 billion or the notional equivalent of some 7.09 million SPY-equivalent shares. Since this was an increase of 154% Q/Q this has some people concerned that the author of ‘reflexivity’ and the founder of “open societies” may be anticipating some major market downside.

Then again, as the chart below shows, as a percentage of total AUM, the put position rose to 11.1% of his notional holdings. By way of reference, as of June 30 2013, his SPY put may have had a smaller notional value, but it represented both more shares (7.8 million), and was far greater as a % of AUM, at 13.5%.

Finally, remember that what was disclosed on Friday is a snapshot of Soros’ holdings as of 45 days ago. What he may or may not have done with his hedge since then is largely unknown, and since there are no investor letters, there is no way of knowing even on a leaked basis how the billionaire has since positioned for the market.

That said, while the SPY puts are most likely simply a hedge to his overall bullish exposure, perhaps more notable was the $25 million call position that Soros put on the gold miners ETF which has been beaten into oblivion over the past year, in the fourth quarter. Does Soros think that it is finally the miners’ turn to shine?

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Warning: George Soros Is Shorting The Market. Should You?  Google

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Weekly Update & Market Forecast. Very Important Update

daily chart Feb 14, 2014

Weekly Update &Summary: February 15th, 2014

Markets continued to rally throughout the week with the Dow Jones appreciating 360 points (+2.28%) and the Nasdaq gaining 118 points (+2.86%). Structurally, the market did very well, closing all the gaps during the span of the week.  There was a gap left around 15,500 on the Dow, but it will be closed during the subsequent bear market leg.   

Most of the bears who were incredibly excited just two weeks ago are now throwing their hands in the air, in complete disbelief, proclaiming something to the tune of “f$&# this s*&#”. Blaming the FED, market manipulation and everything else under the sun for this unprecedented and powerful two week market rally.  Of course, exactly at the wrong time.

Listen, even though the Nasdaq has set a new all time high, the Dow remains over 400 points below its December 31st, 2013 top.  Plus, we have to take into the consideration the fact that the technical trend is still incredibly bullish. Showing no sign that the bear market has started……as per our claim.

So, what is going on?

Based on my mathematical work, the market is performing just as it should. As I always say, it’s the markets job to confuse, frustrate and destroy as many investors as possible. And that’s exactly what it is doing.  

In my original forecasts in 2013 I have suggested that March of 2014 will be the top of the bull market. That was until I came across a missing piece of data suggesting that December 31st of 2013 was indeed the top. Meaning, as of right now the market continues to trace out the necessary pattern towards its ultimate price and time targets in March of 2014. Yes, a XXXX. 

There is another important point to consider. While it is fairly easy to predict the market over an extended period of time (Ex: 2017 bottom of the bear market) it becomes increasingly difficult to do as the time frame compresses from annual, to monthly, to daily, to hourly, etc…. That has to do with a number of data points an analyst has to consider while working with smaller time frames. Simply put, the amount of available mathematical and cyclical data multiplies exponentially as one begins to narrow down the time frame.

What does that mean? It means that it becomes increasingly complex to predict the market over the short time frames. Not impossible, just more difficult.

Which brings us today’s market environment. We have a number of very important points of force coming up over the next few weeks (described below). Points of force that, at least based on my analysis, clearly outline the market structure over the next few weeks and months. If we are to execute our trading strategy properly, we should be able to walk away with significant gains. All while most other market participants are left behind to scratch their heads in outer confusion. As always.   

Please find the points of force (turning points) and the trading strategy associated with it in the Mathematical & Timing Analysis Section below.  

Fundamental Analysis: 

There has been no change in the fundamental picture. As you know, my fundamental case remains fairly straight forward and clear cut. All stocks and most other markets (credit and real estate) are substantially overvalued due to a massive infusion of credit by the FED over the last few years and pure speculation. How overvalued are we?  

1929-2014-Scary-Chart-021414

Well, during the week there has been a lot of hoopla made about the chart above. Comparing today’s market pattern to the one right before the 1929 stock market crash. Claiming that today’s market is tracing out the same patter, right before the crash.

Certainly, if we look at the chart from the fundamental point of view we can argue that the market is indeed incredibly overpriced and is set for a huge, maybe a  90% huge drop.

Let me just say that the collapse is not going to happen. At least based on my mathematical work. First, comparing patterns between today’s market and the market in 1929 is like comparing oranges to tractors. It is meaningless. One must understand where we are in cyclical composition of the market. And we are nowhere near 1929. If you have to compare, 1912, 1946 and 1981 would be much better options.

Second, simply because the market is overpriced, it doesn’t mean that it is about to collapse 90%. It doesn’t work that way. Remember the market has an internal structure. It is exact and perfect. It always does what it is supposed to do by tracing out its points of force. Any move outside of such points would be equivalent to Earth suddenly jumping into Saturn’s orbit for no apparent reason at all.

The lesson for this week is as follows…..

Even though the market is incredibly overpriced (as per my discussion last week) and even though some patterns “look” similar to the ones leading into the 1929 crash, it doesn’t mean anything. Particularly when it comes to making money through investing and/or trading.  

Macroeconomic Analysis: 

There is so much to report here that I am beginning to think that the entire world is going to hell in a hand basket. From Nikkei shifting into downtrend again, to Spain and Turkey deciding to jointly build an aircraft carrier. Because you know, having hyperinflation, collapsing currency, economic depression and 25% unemployment between both countries is not enough. I am just curious to find out who will control any such aircraft carrier. Perhaps it will be Turkey from Monday to Thursday and Spain from Thursday to Sunday. God forbid if they decide to go into war against each other. My brain is starting to hurt just thinking about this stupidity.  

Then you have a slow down in Germany and EU bureaucrats discussing numerous scams of how they can raise enough capital to sustain the EU. Including a plan to outright confiscate/control savings of EU citizens. No, I am not kidding you. Of course, most of it (if not all of it) is the direct result of an insane monetary policy our leaders have put into action over the last two decades. The idea that we can somehow print our way to prosperity. It only works, until it doesn’t.

Technical Analysis: 

While the overall technical picture continues to remain murky, the resolution should be just around the corner.

Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January-February could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. 

Short-Term: The short term picture shifted from negative to positive. Giving us a technical indication that both the short term and the long term trends are up. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Mathematical & Timing Analysis: 

(*** Please Note: About 75% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public.  As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more. Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial). 

As mentioned in my earlier forecasts, we are looking at February XXXX as a major turning point.To be exact, this particular turning point is located at…

Date: XXXX
Price: XXXX

Hence, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action.

If You Are A Trader: On February XXXX, we will be looking for a confirmation that the market has hit its turning point (as per above) and has reversed itself……on an hourly chart. Once such confirmation occurs, I would liquidate our……….

If No Position: XXXX

If Long: XXXX

If Short:  XXXX

CONCLUSION: 

We have an existing couple of weeks coming up. A few major turning points and a number of significant moves. Those anticipating the moves and those who can time them properly will be rewarded appropriately. Once the moves described above play out in full, the market will be set free to continue its next cyclical bear market leg. 

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

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Weekly Update & Market Forecast. Very Important Update  Google