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Warning: Why Does CNBC Wants To Destroy Your Wealth

CNBC Idiots

CNBC Writes: Why long-term investors should buy this selloff 

After a year of steady and quite remarkable gains, fear has crept back into the stock market. Concerns about the U.S. economy have joined emerging market weakness and jitters about the Federal Reserve’s stimulus reduction to send the S&P 500down 6 percent from the high reached Jan. 15. But savvy traders are advising long-term investors that this selloff is presenting a terrific opportunity to buy stocks at a discount.

“If you’re a long-term investor, now’s the time to be allocating,” said Rich Ilczysyzn, senior commodities broker at iiTrader. “I know there’s a lot of pension fund capital waiting to be allocated. They may wait for a specific trigger, maybe 5 percent, or maybe 10 percent. But it’s not going to give the retail guy a lot of time to jump on. And what’s going to happen is, people are going to miss the absolute bottom.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Only the pump and dumpers or the idiots in the financial media can say that a mere 6% selloff is a “buying opportunity of a lifetime”.  I think that teach that phrase in the stock broker school to be repeated like a retarded parrot. Well, I guess I shouldn’t expect anything else from CNBC, a perpetual BS machine.

I would admit to one thing. It was quite entertaining to watch CNBC on huge down days in 2008 and 2009. To watch their “deer in the headlights” faces as they whined while trying to figure out why the collapse was happening. According to them, no one saw it coming.

WRONG, dear talking heads. Plenty of people saw it coming, including myself, and have tried to warn others. Yet, no one wanted to listen. We have the exact same situation today. That is fine by me. That is human nature and I have no desire to shove my work or opinion down anyone’s throat.   

At the same time, one reality remains. The stock market is incredibly overpriced.  Particularly, if you take credit and speculation into consideration.  The most important point to understand here is that corporate earnings over the last 5 years have been driven by the same credit infusion (by the FED to the tune of $85 Billion a month + negative interest rates) that spilled into the stock market. When this QE goes away and/or when the velocity of credit slows down, both happening now,  the stock market as well as the earnings will collapse.

Leading to a significant recession and a massive amount of wealth disappearing into thin air. As I have already mentioned on this blog a number of times,  my mathematical work has confirmed that the bull market has already topped out on December 31st, 2013 and the bear will take us into the 2017 bottom. I am not sure if I can be any more clearer than that.

As such, if you want to listen to retards on CNBC (no offence to the genuinely challenged community) telling you that this is a buying opportunity of a life time, go for it.  Just ask yourself, where were they when the real buying opportunity presented itself in the March of 2009. 

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Daily Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 4th, 2014

Daily Chart February 4, 2014

Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position if invested -OR- be in CASH if not. 

2/4/2014 – A fairly slow bounce day in the market with the Dow Jones being up 72.44 points (+0.47%) and the Nasdaq being up 34.5 points (+0.86%). 

As of right now there is no indication in my mathematical work that this particular bear leg from the December 31st, 2013 top is over. I have a number of points of force showing a lower Dow Jones before an eventual turn around and a bounce. I advise that you continue to maintain our In Cash -or- Hold/Long position as we wait for the bear market confirmation. 

While such a stance might cause further short-term losses, it is the most prudent thing to do from a long-term trading strategy.

Short Term Update:  My short-term update includes exact points for force and anticipated turning points in both price and time. If you would be interested in knowing when the market will turn around….please visit our premium Subscriber section. 

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Shocking Truth Finally Comes Out. ObamaCare Will Destroy 4 Million Jobs. The Government Itself Confirms.

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Business Insider Writes: CBO: Obamacare Will Lead To 2 Million Fewer Workers In The Labor Force By 2017

The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017, as employees work fewer hours or decide to drop out of the labor force entirely. 

The reduction in the numbers of hours worked projected by the CBO will lead to the equivalent of 2 million fewer workers in the labor force in 2017. That number will rise to about 2.5 million in 2024. Previously, the CBO had estimated the equivalent of 800,000 fewer workers by 2021.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

What a fucking disaster.

I use the rule of TWO to either multiply or divide the data coming out of the US Government. It give me a much more accurate data. For instance, when the government wants its data to look favorable, multiply it by 2 to get a more accurate read and vice versa.

For example, multiply the current unemployment rate of 6.7% by 2 and you end up with 13.4%. As far as I am concerned, a much more accurate representation of unemployment when you take part timers and those who have given up looking for work into consideration.

The Congressional Budget Office just announced that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017. Since they want this data to look as favorable as possible, go ahead and multiply it by 2 to get a more accurate indicator. What does that mean?

The Government itself just admitted that ObamaCare will cost 4 Million jobs.
I am speechless.

As far as I am concerned any regulation that destroys jobs, hurts businesses and slows economic growth is an evil law. Period.  I am afraid, due to the upcoming recession (based on my timing work) the net job losses due to ObamaCare will be much more than 4 Million jobs.

What pisses me off more than anything is complete economic incompetence at every level of our government. They have consistently done nothing but exacerbate our economic problems.

Disappearing middle class, massive debt, wars, credit bubbles, real estate bubbles, corporate earnings bubbles, stock market bubbles, upcoming recession and dim economic future is a clear indication of that. Sad. 

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Shocking Truth Comes Out. ObamaCare Will Destroy 4 Million Jobs. The Government Itself Confirms. Google

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Who Makes More Money, Investors or Speculators?

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 19Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics:

Reader’s Question: “Is it better to be a long-term investor or a speculator. Who makes more money?”  – Robert Casper, TX 

    • Why This Is The Wrong Question To Ask. 
    • The Secret Truth Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know. 
    • Who Makes More Money. 
    • Who Should You Be In Order To Maximize Your Returns.  

Please tweet me your questions @investwithalex

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Why The US Economy Is Just Like Philip Seymour Hoffman On Heroin

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CNBC Writes: Marc Faber: Market volatility will continue, here’s why

“It would seem to me that it’s not just tapering that is putting pressure on markets,” Faber, the author of the closely watched “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report” told CNBC on Tuesday. “In emerging economies we have practically no growth, we have a slowdown in China that is more meaningful than the strategists seem to think and than the official, Chinese statistics seem to suggest.”

“That then puts pressure on the earnings of the multinationals because most of the growth in the world over the last five years has come from emerging economies,” he told CNBC Europe’s “Squawk Box.” No growth, he said, was causing “a vicious circle on the downside” with slowing emerging economies and inflated asset markets that are now deflating, in turn putting more pressure on asset prices and on the economies.

Faber’s comments come as volatility in equity markets continued this week, prompting concerns among traders and investors that markets were at the start of a sharp correction. The moves lower follow a rally last year on the back of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus.

“Total credit as a percent of the global economy is now 30 percent higher than it was at the start of the economic crisis in 2007, we have had rapidly escalating household debt especially in emerging economies and resource economies like Canada and Australia and we have come to a point where household debt has become burdensome on the system—that is, where an economic slowdown follows.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Marc Faber needs to stop reading my reports. In all seriousness, it is nice to see someone like Faber confirm your own analysis and investment thesis in its entirety.

He is, of course, right on the money.  When the entire global economy depends on massive amounts of credit and each country is trying to devalue their currency faster than the other, you know you have a big problem.  Here is a good way to look at the issue.

The US Economy and its global counterpart is no different from the Philip Seymour Hoffman. One of my favorites. The guy was on top of his game in one of the most competitive industries in the world, successful, rich and with the ability to land any type of a girl. What else does a guy need in this world?

Well, for him that wasn’t good enough. So he had to find an escape in booze and heroin. The US Economy functions in exactly the same way. Neither Greenspan nor Bernanke has the testicular fortitude to let the economy go through a typical recovery, clear the slate and keep moving on.

Instead, they have infused the economy with massive amount credit (aka heroin) at the first sight of a sneeze. Distorting all financial markets to a massive degree and making the patient addicted in the process.

Now, there is no going back. Just like Philip Seymour Hoffman OD on heroin, the US and Global Economy will OD on cheap credit. Leading to massive financial trouble around the world. There is no way to avoid it now.

While I agree with Faber, I have an extra level of analysis that he does not. Timing.  Again, my timing work is indicating that the bull market topped out on December 31st, 2013 and the market will now roll over to take us into the cyclical 2017 bear market bottom. 

With that said, right now would be a prudent time to protect yourself. 

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Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com. February 3rd, 2014

Daily Chart February 3, 2014Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position if invested -OR- be in CASH if not. 

2/3/2014 – Another ugly day for the market with the Dow Jones being down -326 points (-2.08%) and the Nasdaq being down  -107 points or (-2.61%).

Again, based on my mathematical work, this is not a correction. As my earlier post “Market Top” from two weeks ago outlined and explained, December 31st, 2013 was indeed the top of the bull market that started in March of 2009 and the beginning of the final bear market leg that will take us into the 2017 cyclical bear market bottom.

Even though the market continues to go down, we still need a confirmation before taking a short position. As such, I continue to anticipate the market to bounce into the March time frame before resuming its bear market. If you remember, the market left a number of open gaps in the 16,400 area that will “technically” need to be closed.

Short-Term Projections:

(***This is the only time I will provide short-term projections here. They will only be available in our premium section thereafter). 

My mathematical work shows two points of force coming in February. One coming up this Friday and the other one on February 17th.  Based on my mathematical work, I believe February 17th will be the bottom of this bear move, reversal and subsequent bounce into the March of 2014. If market confirms, we are looking at the 15,025 on the DOW  as our projected negative price target.

However, if the market gets there sooner, there is a good chance that this Friday will be a turning point. I will keep you posted. Either way, we have to wait for a confirmation before taking our long position.

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What Will The Stock Market Do & Why You Should Care.

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 18

Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics:

Reader’s Question: “Hey, as long-term investors, why should we care about what the market does. Shouldn’t we just concentrate on picking good stocks? ” – Angela . 

    • The answer that will shock you to your core. 
    • How knowing what the market will do can easily double your returns. 
    • Why timing is the most important element when it comes to investing. 
    • What you can do now to combine timing with fundamentals to maximize your gains. 

Please tweet me your questions @investwithalex

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Harvard Economist Starts A Run On His Bank of America. Should You Follow?

 PBS Writes: Is your money safe at the bank? An economist says ‘no’ and withdraws his

bank run investwithalex

Why do I risk starting a run on Bank of America by withdrawing my money and presuming that many fellow depositors will read this and rush to withdraw too? Because they pay me zero interest. Thus, even an infinitesimal chance Bank of America will not repay me in full, whenever I ask, switches the cost-benefit conclusion from stay to flee.

Let me explain: Currently, I receive zero dollars in interest on my $1,000,000. The reason I had the money in Bank of America was to keep it safe. However, the potential cost to keeping my money in Bank of America is that the bank may be unwilling or unable to return my money.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

After reading this article I am seriously considering running into my bank later on today and screaming out “Give me all of my money Bi*%#@, NOW”. It’s just my hope that they won’t misinterpret my demand for my own money and give me all the money in the vault. I don’t’ think the FBI would appreciate my sense of humor. (On the side note, I wonder how many keywords this paragraph has set off at the NSA).

Anyhow, I actually tried to withdraw a fairly large amount of money at my local branch of Bank of America a few years ago. Without giving it a second thought I walked in and asked for a miserly $125,000 in cash. With a smile of course. They gave a deer in a headlights look, the same kind of look I would expect if I was trying to cash in about $20 Billion, and then proceeded to tell me “I am sorry, we don’t have that kind of money on hand, would you like us to request that for you and you can come pick it up in 2 days. “

WTF? You have a huge vault and you don’t have $125,000 in cash on hand? That is not good.

Listen, the article above is right on the money when it comes to our banking system and highly recommend that you read it in its entirety.  The bottom line is, the American banking system is only as stable as the perception of stability associated with it. The banks, by their greedy nature, have lent out all of the money they have had.

If there is a run on the banks, no commercial bank in the US today will be able to meet its obligations to the depositors. Surely, the government will backstop, but that’s not the main point here.

The main point is that the banks are not paying any interest on deposits.  Thanks to the FED and their interest rates policies, you would be lucky to get 0.05% APY on your saving account.  That doesn’t sound fair, does it?  I don’t know why Obama and Bernanke/Yellen hate our senior citizens on fixed income so much.

Now, based on my mathematical timing work,  I reject the notion of the “PermaBears” and “Gold Bugs” that our economy and our markets will completely collapse, there will be a banking holiday and we will all be shooting rabbits for food.  Again, it is not going to happen.   

While I believe your money is inherently save at this juncture, I do agree with the premise of taking your money out of the banking system and trying to get a higher yield elsewhere. That is, if you want. 

So, what should you do?

1. Never have more than the FDIC insured amount on deposit at any given bank. If you do, you are a stupid wanker just asking for trouble.

2. Open a safety deposit box and store some cash there.   Always have a substantial amount of cash on hand.  If you want to take the diversification to the extreme open bank accounts in Hong Kong or Singapore and store your cash there.

Then what?

Do nothing. Just sit on it. Yes, I can give you some tips of what to do if you would like to earn higher yields, but that would come with additional risk.  Believe it or not, I think the US Dollar is substantially undervalued and will do very well over the next few years while financial markets around the world come down to the tune of 40-60%. Including the US.

Having large quantities of cash at the bottom of the bear market will allow you to come in and buy wonderful companies at huge discounts and that is how you make a lot of money over the next 5 years or so.  

BTW, I gave the same advice to my clients in 2006-2007 and that worked out pretty well.  

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Why Is National Association of Realtors Trying To Destroy America …..Again

 CNBC Writes: Pending homes plunge, surprising economists

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Signed contracts to buy existing homes dropped 8.7 percent in December as abnormally cold weather hit much of the U.S., according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors.

The plunge caught economists by surprise. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast pending home sales would tick up 0.3 percent.

This pending home sales index fell to 92.4 from a downwardly revised 101.2 in November. These signed contracts are an indicator of sales in January and February, and are at the lowest level since October 2011.

“Home prices rising faster than income is also giving pause to some potential buyers, while at the same time a lack of inventory means insufficient choice. Although it could take several months for us to get a clearer read on market momentum, job growth and pent-up demand are positive factors,” said the association’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun.

There is close to 1 million Real Estate Agents in the US. I think it’s time we give a serious consideration to rounding them all up and shipping them to Siberia.  Maybe we can make some sort of a deal with Mr. Putin in exchange for oil or natural gas.  For all I care, let them sell pine trees to hungry bears in Taiga and get paid with berries. We should start with Lawrence Yun.

Come on!!! Does anyone even believe NAR fools anymore.  Keep in mind, NAR  is the same organization that was cheering the housing bubble all the way until it blew up and killed all of those poor souls in Florida, California and Nevada who couldn’t fog a mirror yet each had 10 houses to their name. Now they are blaming the “cold weather” for a severe plunge of 8.7%.  Jesus Christ, I guess it was too cold for all of those Chinese investors and hedge funds with bags full of money to buy real estate in southern states.  

Unlike NAR, dear reader, I will not insult your intelligence.  You see, in my October post  “I am Calling For A Real Estate Top Here“, I clearly outlined a case for why the real estate market is finishing its “Dead Cat Bounce” and is about to roll over to continue its bear market that started in 2007.

What is a dead cat bounce? Allow me to present a powerful illustration I worked on for 2 days.

Dead-cat-bounce-graph-yahoo-finance

Such bounces exist, once again, to fool the masses. They act to suck people back in with the promise that the worst is over.  Fools rush back in only to have the trap snap shot right behind them.  On Friday I wrote about Hedge Funds funneling money to plumbers and dentists so they can become “landlords”. If that doesn’t scream out “Market Top”, nothing else will and you are on your own.

Today’s real estate market is not the function of economy, jobs, supply/demand, family formation or any other crap real estate propaganda machine (aka NAR) would like you to believe. It is a function of credit and speculation.

It is has been artificially driven up by over $3 TRILLION of monopoly’s money being pumped into our economy by Uncle Ben.  No, not the Uncle Ben that sells rice, but the one at the FED.

When the credit bubble goes, you will find the real estate bubble collapsing along with it…..again. 

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Weekly Investment Update and Summary. February 1st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart Jan31, 2014

Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position.

Weekly Summary: 

Even thou the market had a number of significant down days during the week, the Dow Jones ended up down only -180 points or (-1.14%). Both the Nasdaq and the S&P fared much better. Loosing only -24 points (-0.59%) and -7.7 points (-0.43%) respectively. 

If this week can teach us anything, its that volatility is back. Every trading session was opened up with a fairly large gap. With Fridays gap being close to 200 points on the DOW. What does that mean?

It means the cyclical composition of the market has shifted from a general uptrend exhibited in 2013 and for the large part since the start of this bull market leg in March of 2009 to a bear market leg identified here last week. 

Again, my mathematical timing work had confirmed that the DOW Jones topped out on December 31st, 2013 at precisely 16,576, ushering in the new bear market leg that will take us into the 2017 cyclical bear market bottom. 

Now, most market participants believe that the decline since the start of the year is nothing more than a simple correction that is long overdue.  While I disagree we still have to wait for a technical confirmation before taking our short position to profit from the bear market leg.  Such confirmation must come from a short term bottom here, subsequent bounce and resumption of the bear move thereafter. 

Our model portfolio established at the beginning of the year has been in cash this entire time @10 Year Note, helping us avoid the decline. For our previous investments, we continue to maintain our LONG/HOLD position without adding anything new. Once the bear market confirmation arrives we will get out immediately and go short. 

If you recall, I have mentioned that the market opened up large gaps on the way down from 16,400. At this stage it is highly probable that the market will bounce back to those levels before resuming the bear market let once the bottom of this correction is set. When will that happen. Please see our Mathematical & Timing analysis below.  

Fundamental Analysis: 

As you know, my fundamental case remains fairly straight forward and clear cut. All stocks and most other markets (credit and real estate) are substantially overvalued due to massive infusion of credit by the FED over the last few years and pure speculation. I am acutely aware and as most market commentators point out, based on the P/E ratio of 18.5 and some other metrics that the market is not overpriced and is within its historic range. At lest suggesting that there is no need to worry about any sort of a decline. 

s&p ratio

However, everyone is missing the elephant in the room. The earnings for most corporations have been “juiced up” to the tenth degree by the same credit infusion. If you take the credit and those earnings out, the P/E ratio is likely to be in the 50-100 range. Making this market not only overpriced, but putting it in the “are you fucking kidding me overpriced” category. 

Please note, that is exactly what happened when the P/E ratio shot up to over 124 in May of 2009 even though the market had lost over 50% since October of 2007. When earning disappear (as they will), today’s valuations will look astronomical.   

Macroeconomic Analysis: 

It doesn’t matter where you look, we have the same cancer spreading across the globe. Massive credit expansion juiced up the FED. This week the Fed announced a further cut in QE from $75 Billion to $65 Billion due to perceived “Economic Strength”. I have argued for a long time that the FED will be unable to withdraw this support without a massive blow up one way or another. We already starting to see strain show up in emerging markets. 

With our mathematical work confirming the bear market over the next 3 years, this plays very well into our scenario. The bottom line is, our economy is driven by credit and will deflate on a large scale as soon as the credit intervention goes away (as it is now) and/or the velocity of credit slows down (as it is now). 

Technical Analysis: 

Technical picture remains murky. 

Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. 

Short-Term: The trend is down as the market structure turned bearish. Please see my timing analysis for further instructions. 

Overall, we must wait for a confirmation before taking a short position. 

Mathematical & Timing Analysis: 

There is a number of important mathematical turning points arriving over the weekend and next week. Will these points signal the end of the bear move and a reversal into an anticipated rebound? I believe so. As soon as the rebound completes we should see the market roll over the resume a bear market leg in March of this year.  

Time Targets: Coming Next Week.

Price Targets: Coming Next Week 

CONCLUSION: 

If you are out of the market as we have been, stay out. If you are still fully invested consider liquidating your positions as we go through a rebound over the next few weeks. Once the rebound plays itself out and the market confirms the next bear leg down, I would recommend going short at that time. 

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