The Secret Behind This Hedge Fund Manager’s Market Collapse Prediction

crispin odey

I firmly believe that the only people investors should be listening to right about now are the people who got 2000 and 2007 meltdowns right. Everyone else is just blowing smoke. Crispin Odey, the founder of London-based Odey Asset Management, is one of those people. He does not hold back….

“I just think that you and I have got grandstand seats here [to an imminent market shock] and my point is having found myself in the second quarter of last year selling a lot of equities and starting to go short, I found out just how illiquid it all was. You never actually see it until people try and get out of these things.”

That’s quite a powerful statement and I wholeheartedly agree.  A lot of gold in this The Sydney Morning Herald article and it is definitely worth 5 minutes of your time.  He goes on to say…

“For me, what I find very interesting is given the risk of recession, how is it the West stock market can be hitting all-time highs? History tends to be not very generous in this regard. If you get a recession in a low inflation environment it tends to impact the ratings of stocks dramatically. It was akin to “watching the markets take drunken bow after drunken bow. It’s amazing that nobody else is on the same page.”

The upcoming recession and the approaching stock market meltdown are so easy to see, I am not sure why the 99% go on missing it. The attitude was exactly the same at 2000 and 2007 tops. Greed or stupidity? I am not sure, but it is amazing indeed.

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The Secret Behind This Hedge Fund Manager’s Market Collapse Prediction  Google

Daily Stock Market Update. July 1st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart July 1 2014

A strong up day with the Dow Jones up 129 points (+0.77%) and the Nasdaq up 50 points (+1.14%)

The market continues to behave exactly as per our forecast (member section). Most markets have opened a large gap up in the morning that the market will have to close over the next few trading days/weeks. Plus, with the Dow stopping just 1 point shy of that magical 17,000 number, the chances are high that the bulls will push the market above that level in the near future.

Despite the euphoria, I would, once again, caution you against falling for this bull trap. Let me put it this way. Those who are buying at today’s levels will look back in 2 years time and then proceed to slam their heads against a concrete wall. Questioning, once again, how they could have been so stupid to buy stocks at such dizzying heights.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 1st, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

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Daily Stock Market Update. June 2nd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart June 2 -nasdaq  2014

6/2/2014 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 26 points (+0.16%) and the Nasdaq down 5 points (-0.13%)

I haven’t heard anyone else mention this, at least not yet, but it appears that the Nasdaq might be building a fairly large Head-And-Shoulders trading pattern.  With the left shoulder starting on December 12th, 2013, top of the head appearing in early March and the start of the right shoulder developing from the April 11th bottom. Plus, if we take TIME symmetry into consideration, the right shoulder doesn’t have that much more time to complete itself.

What does all of that mean?

Typically, head and shoulder patterns develop and set off major trend shifts. Basically, if the Nasdaq ends up completing this pattern over the next few trading weeks/months and then proceeds to breakdown below 4,000, there will be hell to pay on the downside. As you know from my previous posts, the fundamentals and various other market divergences tend to support this hypothesis.

Not only that, this is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 2nd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

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The Shocking Truth About The “Great Rotation” Within The Stock Market

S&P chart investwithalex

According to market pundits below, a great rotation within the stock market is underway. Out of small caps/growth and into value. There is only one problem with such a view…..

There is no value left. 

And I am being totally serious. I always look for value, but as of today I cannot find any. ZERO. I did find a value/growth/turnaround play two months ago, RiteAid (RAD), but even that stock is up over 30% in a little over one month. Further, the P/E ratio that everyone points to is being highly distorted by a massive amount of credit within our financial system and cannot be relied upon. I have discussed that before.

Listen, there is no rotation. What you are witnessing is a rollover most commonly associated with market tops. Small caps and growth are simply leading the market. In due time, the Dow Jones or perceived value will follow this lead to the downside. It is as simple as that.

This is further confirmed by our mathematical and timing work. Again, our work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

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Talking Numbers: Why there may be nowhere to hide in the market

The S&P 500 may be at record highs but underneath the surface, the Great Rotation of 2014 is underway. And, that could be bad news for stocks ahead.

According to TrimTabs Investor Research, there has been a “massive” rotation out of growth stocks and into value stocks this spring. Since the start of April, growth-oriented exchange-traded funds (ETFs) redeemed $5.6 billion while value-oriented ETFs issued $3.9 billion.

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Broken out by size, $4.6 billion were redeemed out of large-cap growth stocks and $2.6 billion were issued in large-cap value stocks. Meanwhile, $750 million were taken out of small-cap growth companies and $150 million were issued in small-cap value ETFs.

Growth % of assets Value % of assets
Large cap -$4.6 billion 4.9% +$2.6 billion 2.5%
Small cap -$750 million 5.9% +150 million 1.0%

Source: TrimTabs Investment Research

 Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, sees this as a trend that will continue.

“All of the defensive sectors have performed quite well this year,” said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. “A lot of the highfliers and momentum stocks have just gotten destroyed. That’s going to continue.”

However, Sanchez sees this less of a move into value and more about the markets dumping momentum stocks. That could continue until those momentum stocks have more “realistic ranges” in value, she says. In the meantime, that could hurt the overall market.

“I think this defensiveness is going to continue,” Sanchez said. “We could actually see a correction in the market as a result of that continued concern.”

Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, also thinks a correction is coming.
Although Ross’ charts show that the benchmark S&P 500 index has remained above its rising 150-day moving average in a well-defined trend channel since June 2013, it has been unable to break above the 1,900 level..

z33

And, “The longer-term structure remains vulnerable,” Ross said. The S&P 500 may have stayed above its 50-week moving average since 2012 but Ross believes the index is starting to move far from its 150-week moving average, currently around 1,500. That could be a potential target.

“That has to be considered a possibility,” Ross said. “Yes, we can remain above trend and go even longer higher. But, I think that this move to value over growth – to bonds over stocks, if you will –tells you that the market is looking for insurance. It’s scared and, in the end, there will be nowhere to hide.”

Stock Market Update. April 11th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart April 11 2014

Another down day with the Dow Jones down 143 points (-0.89%) and the Nasdaq down 54 points (-1.34%) 

The amount of stupidity associate with the recent market decline continues to increase unabated. From Carl Icahn’s barber being excited about this stock market to most market pundits predicting an Earth shattering decline of 5-7% before an eventual bounce. While all of that is going on the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is already down over 20% while the Nasdaq is down 8.2%. Yet, all of the above is irrelevant.  One must understand where we are in the cyclical and mathematical composition of the stock market. While I have tried my best to drill that information into investor consciousness, most of it falls on deaf ears. That is to be expected, I got the same reception in 2007.

To quickly summarize,  we are still in the secular bear market that started on January 14th, 2000. Based on our mathematical and timing work this bear market will complete itself in 2017. When it does, you will see most of the gains from 2009 bottom vanish into thin air. With the 5 year cycle (1994 -2000, 2002-2007 and 2009-2014) now complete you will see a bear market initiate within a relatively short period of time. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start(to the day) and it’s subsequent internal composition, please Click Here   

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). 

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Why Russia Is About To Start Killing American Mercenaries In Ukraine

The situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate. Fast.  As I indicated yesterday, Russia is executing a brilliant strategy in order to lay the groundwork for an eventual East Ukraine invasion. In fact, looking at things from an analytical perspective, I highly doubt it would be more than 10 days before Russia is “forced” to go in. In one of my later posts today I will outline exactly why Russia will go in and how it will impact the stock market.  Yet, one item caught my eye. 

“We are particularly concerned that the operation involves some 150 American mercenaries from a private company Greystone Ltd., dressed in the uniform of the [Ukrainian] special task police unit Sokol,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. 

Greystone is more or less an extension of the US Government or the Pentagon….when need be. Yet, if I was in charge of the company, I would get my people out of Ukraine NOW. When (not if) Russia goes in it will go after such mercenaries with all that they have got to teach America a lesson and to make sure further meddling by the West in Ukraine is highly discouraged.  This will make Benghazi look like a picnic.    

american mercenaries

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RT Writes: Moscow warns Kiev against using military, mercenaries in southeastern Ukraine

The Russian Foreign Ministry has voiced concerns over the buildup of Ukrainian forces and US mercenaries in the southeastern part of the country, calling on Kiev to immediately cease military preparations which could lead to a civil war.

As parts of Ukraine push for greater autonomy – with Donetskand Kharkov declaring independence on Monday – the self-imposed government in Kiev is reportedly dispatching additional forces in turbulent regions to avoid potential disobedience by local law enforcements.

“We are particularly concerned that the operation involves some 150 American mercenaries from a private company Greystone Ltd., dressed in the uniform of the [Ukrainian] special task police unit Sokol,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “Organizers and participants of such incitement are assuming a huge responsibility for threatening upon the rights, freedoms and lives of Ukrainian citizens as well as the stability of Ukraine.”

Ukraine’s acting interior minister, Arsen Avakov, confirmed that additional police special forces units have arrived in southern and eastern parts of Ukraine from other regions.

“These special forces are ready to solve operational problems without the regard to local peculiarities,”Ukraine’s Interior Ministry quoted Avakov as saying. “I urge all the hotheads now to defer from criticism and panic, and help the police keep the situation under control.”

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, special forces backed by militants from the Right Sector are being tasked with suppressing protests in the southeastern regions of Ukraine, which for weeks have been calling for a referendums on the regions’ statuses within Ukraine. Moscow called on the government in Kiev to refrain from actions that could spark a civil war in Ukraine.

“We urge [Kiev] to immediately stop all military preparations which could lead to a civil war,” the statement reads.

On Monday, a source in the Interior Ministry of Ukraine told Ria Novosti that three special forces units have been redeployed to the Donetsk and Lugansk regions to suppress anti-government protests. The source claims that they consist of Interior Forces units, the newly-formed National Guard, Right Sector radicals, and Blackwater (Greystone) mercenaries and Falcon units. LifeNews also reported seeing armed Titan special forces units in Donetsk.

The reports of Greystone Limited (an affiliate of Academi/Blackwater) operating in Ukraine remain unconfirmed.

In a separate press release on Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that it is “closely watching what happens in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, in particular in the Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov regions.”

Moscow noted that without “real constitutional reform in Ukraine,” the “federalization” of the country, and the implementation of Russian as a second official language, long-term stabilization of the crisis is unlikely.

The ministry said that is time to stop “putting the blame on Russia, accusing [Moscow] of all the troubles in today’s Ukraine.”

Instead, Moscow urged Kiev to answer the legitimate questions that people in Ukraine have for the self-imposed government.

“Ukrainian people want to get a clear answer from Kiev to all their questions. It’s time to listen to these legal claims,” the Foreign Ministry said, accusing the Ukrainian government of acting “irresponsibly.”

At the same time, the ministry confirmed the Kremlin’s commitment to kickstart a national Ukrainian dialogue to stop the crisis. Russia is trying to propose the federalization of Ukraine, where regions would have broader powers of autonomy – including the right to promote regional language minority rights.

 

Pro-Russian activists guard a barricade set at the Donetsk regional council office building on the eastern city of Donetsk on April 7, 2014. (AFP Photo)

Pro-Russian activists guard a barricade set at the Donetsk regional council office building on the eastern city of Donetsk on April 7, 2014. (AFP Photo)

 

Meanwhile, the US hinted that Moscow could be behind the unrest in eastern Ukraine. In a daily briefing, State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki stated that during the phone conversation between US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, the US chief diplomat “noted the Ukrainian Government’s assertion that this appeared to be a carefully orchestrated campaign with Russian support.”

“He called on Russia to publicly disavow the activities of separatists, saboteurs, and provocateurs, calling for de-escalation and dialogue, and called on all parties to refrain from agitation in Ukraine. He made clear that any further Russian efforts to destabilize Ukraine will incur further costs for Russia, and the ministers all discussed convening direct talks within the next 10 days between Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the EU to try to de-escalate the tensions.”

The White House has also urged Russia to refrain from interfering in Ukraine. “We call on President Putin and his government to cease efforts to destabilize Ukraine,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said.

On Monday, a group of anti-coup activists seized government buildings in Ukraine’s eastern cities of Donetsk and Kharkov, proclaiming the regions’ independence from Ukraine. Clashes between pro-independence demonstrators and security forces were also witnessed in Lugansk and Odessa.

Why Most Stock Market Bears Will Be Disappointed.

Fedreservestockchart-investwithalex

If you pay attention to today’s bearish community and to the likes of Elliotwave.com or Zerohedge.com you would walk away with a perception that the Dow Jones is going to 1,000 or lower. In fact, according to them you would be better off stock pilling guns, ammo and canned food. If you have the same point of view, I am sorry, but you will lose a lot of money over the next few years.  

Yes, our incredibly accurate timing and mathematical work confirms that there will be a bear market over the next few years. Between 2014-2017 to be exact. Yet, it will not be as severe as the bears would like you to believe. In fact, it won’t be half as severe as the bear market leg between 2007-09. Now, most of the Perma Bear will dismiss this notion as nonsense. They want the market to collapse and they won’t be happy until we see a 1929 type of a crash. Yet, it a dangerous delusion that will cost them a lot of money. Just as it did over the last 5-Years when the stock market completely annihilated all of their short positions.   

Instead, if you would like to know exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start and it’s exact internal composition (forecastered to the day), please check out our work on this site….. Click Here. 

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The Extent Of China’s Credit Bubble

The chart below speaks for itself and the extent of Chinese Credit Default time bomb. Please note, this chart doesn’t include China’s so called “Shadow Banking” assets which are estimated to be at an additional $6-10 Trillion. In short, China makes US Credit Infusion by the FED look like child’s play. When China finally blows sky high, it’s defaults will be as massive at the credit expansion below. 

China Bank Assets InvestWithAlex

 

The Extent Of China’s Credit Bubble

The US Economy Is On Fire….Quiznos Files For Bankruptcy….Oh

I do have to admit that their sandwiches taste like crap, but that’s beside the point. Quiznos filed for bankruptcy protection for its 2,100 stores today. That comes on top of Sbarro Pizza chain filling for bankruptcy just a few days ago. A coincidence? After all, if you are to listen to Perma Bulls, the FED and our Administrations, the US economy is on fire and about to get better.

What they forgot to mention is that most of economic expansion over the last 5 years has been driven by credit expansion and speculation. This pile of debt is what’s keeping this economy afloat while artificially inflating corporate earnings. Take Quiznos for instance. They have had over $400 Million in debt spread out over 2,100 stores. That’s crazy and no company of Quiznos size can sustain such a heavy debt load. And its not just Quiznos. It’s pretty much everyone outside of massive cash cows like Apple, Google or Goldman Sachs.  

When this credit bubble finally pops, and it will, you will see a line of American companies under heave debt burden filling for bankruptcy. Quiznos and Sbaro where just the first to go. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start, please CLICK HERE. 

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The US Economy Is On Fire….Quiznos Files For Bankruptcy….Oh Google

First, Sbarro. Now, Quiznos.

Quiznos has filed for bankruptcy protection, five days after theSbarro pizza chain did the same.

Executives at the restaurant chain, known for its toasted sandwiches, agreed to a restructuring plan that will reduce its debt by more than $400 million, the company said in a statement Friday.

All but seven of Quizno’s 2,100 restaurants in the United States and 30 other countries are independently owned franchises, and will remain open and operating as usual.

CEO Stuart Mathis said the company will take action to help increase sales and profits for its franchise owners going forward. It will look to reduce food costs, invest in local advertising and, in some circumstances, make loans available for restaurant improvements.